Bitcoin: 40K Break Trend Change?Bitcoin rejects the 50K resistance area and goes from 49K to 41,500 over a two day period. If you have been following my analysis on here you should NOT be surprised. I have been highlighting the extreme risks above 46K in my articles AND my streams since the beginning of the month. Is this an adequate pullback to buy into? I will address that now.
The first question that we must consider is: has anything changed in terms of trend? From a technical perspective, NOT YET. The 40K support is still intact, and until this level is clearly compromised, it is still within reason to anticipate the overall support to hold. One thing to keep in mind though, there is a large red candle coming off a major resistance level and this means momentum is bearish. IF this momentum continues, 40K can break at which point a change in trend would be in play.
For this reason, BEFORE considering any swing trades on the long side, I will WAIT for a complex reversal pattern (see illustration on chart). This can appear in the form of a classic double bottom or failed low in the 40K AREA. A couple of green inside bars is NOT enough in this situation because of the recent surge in momentum. Typically inside bars in this configuration are often momentum continuation patterns which at the moment favors the bears.
In previous reports and streams I have specifically mentioned the relevance of the monthly time frame and potential of a bearish C wave developing. IF 40K breaks, this further confirms that argument. A bearish C wave can potentially lead to a test of 15K (this can take months to play out). It is important to be cognizant of this scenario particularly for investors who plan to dollar cost average into the next pullback. Don't make the mistake to getting too big too soon.
There is no way to know if 15K will be tested, maybe the bottom of C turns out to be 30K, or maybe Wave C never unfolds at all, and 40K holds. The point is, don't get married to any opinions bullish OR bearish. Avoid getting swept up into the nonsense machine (the internet). You only need a few components of information to make reasonable decisions. Start with having a repetitive way to identify trend and changes of trend, and second the same for KEY support and resistance levels. These two components alone can improve decision making because they help you align with market intent.
This game is NOT about "thinking" and being right. It is about ADJUSTING as the market processes new information. Unless you are ahead of the information curve, you have to accept that the market is ALWAYS right. It can do whatever IT wants, WHENEVER it wants for ANY REASON. Charts help to isolate a probable range of scenarios which you can reference to better quantify risk. The more you over think it, the greater the chance that you lose.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Bitcoin-btcusd
So far we are repeating 2019 Scenario!Mid-Cycle Top?
So far we are repeating 2019 Scenario
Same RSI overbought level🔻
Same rejection off the Major Resistance🔻
All I think we need to see a correction for 💰 $BTC.
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Bitcoin Headed to $10,900I have been yelling to whoever will listen and I think we have a big drop in store. Of course nobody is perfect but I have had a gut feeling about most the major turns on record and I'm getting the same now. I suck at a lot of things but I called the Feb top 2020 a day before the drop, called for a huge drop in Feb 2022, called for the December 2022 bottom, I just get these crazy feelings about major turns that just hit me in the head with a brick and I can't ignore it. The market is one giant puzzle and sometimes it just pieces itself together.
Everyone is piling into BTC and saying they're going all in with their savings, people are saying they're buying boats and quitting their jobs. I have a feeling this will end very bad, I'm starting to think the cycle won't continue to go up like it always has. It's the first time I have ever felt this and I have been in since 2013, I hate it.
Everyone says just HODL and you'll be fine, which has been the history and nothing suggests that's over yet but I think it's possible. Largest FED Fund transaction ever just as some major stocks hit major peaks. AMD hit resistance from 1984 & 2000 & Amazon looks like a possible major distribution. Fitch said recession in 2023 at the bottom in Oct 2022 and now they're saying no recession, very fishy, just kinda lines up with everything else for me to be a possible bubble top.
Also DXY is the most shorted in history, that's a very crowded trade that can whipsaw at any moment. My Cigar guy (anecdotal lol), asked how he can short equities in Oct of 2022 and said he never bought any stocks, well just yesterday he said he tried to buy his first stock but was having problems with his broker (lucky him). We have a potential Double Top as well just as the big fed fund goes through.
I don't know, maybe I'm talking crazy and I would love to see things rocket and I would buy the pullbacks but I think we could have a serious drop. I think it's better to be in cash right now personally until the dust settles and if the FEDS funds ends up being a giant cash cow buy will will break ATH's and re-test them where you can buy, it doesn't hurt to be on the sidelines at such a major intersection.
First down to 17k, then up to 29k then down to 10,985ish is the current plan.
BTC 1D, TARGET .. OH MY GOOODD MY BTC AFTER ETF Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009.
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created, according to Nakamoto’s own words, to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”
Some concepts for a similar type of a decentralized electronic currency precede BTC, but Bitcoin holds the distinction of being the first-ever cryptocurrency to come into actual use.
BITCOIN The path to All Time Highs is scripted.It has been 14 months (November 14 2022) since we published our first (and to this date most important) Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycle comparison between 2022/ 2023 and 2014/ 2015:
www.tradingview.com
As you can see the main driver behind this comparison was the FTX crash in November 2022 and the Bitfinex crash in August 2015, which both acted as catalysts for the bottom. Following the FTX crash/ bottom, the price action has so far followed quite closely the 2015/ 2016 recovery.
On today's analysis, also on the 1W time-frame, we focus on the Rising Wedge that funneled the price action from the Cycle bottom to the bullish recovery. The similarities between the two Cycles are remarkable:
1. Bounce on the Lower Highs and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) break-out, which basically confirmed the transition into the Bull Cycle.
2. Immediate Channel Down after the 1W MA50 break-out on the Rising Wedge's first Higher High.
3. 1W MA50 supporting since the break-out.
Right now we are in the stage where the price has broken above the Rising Wedge. In June 2016 this caused a short-term correction back inside the Wedge towards the 1W MA50, which as mentioned held. If BTC continues to replicate that Cycle, does it mean that such a technical correction is due? The 1W MA50 is currently above 30000 and rising aggressively.
But what do you think? Are you expecting a 1 - 1.5 month pull-back from here and then a new All Time High after April's Halving? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD Is Pointing Higher After A CorrectionBitcoin remains at the highs at the beginning of 2024, so we assume that more upside can be seen as recovery is acting like an impulse. As such, be aware of further gains within a five-wave cycle, where we are tracking higher degree wave III up to around 48k - 50k area. Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see some sell-off after Matrixport’s latest report claims that the SEC will reject all Bitcoin spot ETFs in January, and final approval may be achieved in the Q2. However, we are still tracking two counts at this stage due to an upcoming decision of SEC on spot Bitcoin ETF. As a primary count it can be trading in an (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) bullish running triangle pattern within higher degree wave 4 before a bullish continuation for wave 5. But, according to secondary count, keep also in mind that recent jump could be also 5th wave out of wave 4 triangle pattern, so we should be aware of a larger, deeper and longer A-B-C corrective setback down to 40k-38k-35k support area.
ARGO Blockchain - Bitcoin MiningWe have another BTC correlated stock in a descending triangle breakout. A back test of the triangle is underway and my feeling is that it could run if bitcoin holds steady or goes sideways. We are showing oversold conditions with oscillators swinging momentum to the upside.
According to the company itself it "ranks in the top tier of global mining operations, around 0.7% of the world’s Bitcoin mining network hashrate". Keep in mind I am trading on BTC correlation and technicals but have done very little due diligence. Not financial advice, DYOR.
Bitcoin sell the ETF news. 20% crash is comingBitcoin is crashing after the BTC ETF launched on Nasdaq - iShares (ticker IBIT on TradingView). This is not looking good; the crash looks really strong on the 1-minute chart. Everyone bought into the ETF News, and now the whales are taking advantage of it and want liquidity at approximately 39k. Why 39? We can see multiple swing lows in this zone. I turned bearish on Bitcoin today. Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Bitcoin is the first decentralized, peer-to-peer digital currency. One of its most important functions is that it is used as a decentralized store of value. In other words, it provides for ownership rights as a physical asset or as a unit of account. However, the latter store-of-value function has been debated. Many crypto enthusiasts and economists believe that high-scale adoption of the top currency will lead us to a new modern financial world where transaction amounts will be denominated in smaller units.
The smallest units of Bitcoin, 0.00000001 BTC, are called Satoshis (or Sats in short), in a nod to the pseudonymous creator. At Bitcoin price now, 1 Satoshi is equivalent to roughly $0.00048.
The top crypto is considered a store of value, like gold, for many — rather than a currency. This idea of the first cryptocurrency as a store of value, instead of a payment method, means that many people buy the crypto and hold onto it long-term (or HODL) rather than spending it on items like you would typically spend a dollar — treating it as digital gold. Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Bitcoin ExtendingBecause of the manner if which price has extended I am still looking for a proper wave 4 and OMH that will get BTC closer to it's ATH of just under $70k. I did a cursory check of contributed ideas on trading view and there appears to be many people calling for a top.
Currently, there is nothing suggesting that.
Currently we are in the beginning areas of a wave 5 target area, but with no wave 4 to discern, this is still wave 3. MACD is not registering the highest reading as it should in a wave 3 due to the overlapping ending diagonal to conclude wave 3. I am awaiting a wave 4 to begin in earnest...followed by a final push higher for completion of a wave (i) of cycle 3 eventually much much higher.
Best to all,
Chris
BITCOIN ETF APPROVED!! Aggressive rally to $120k possible?Exactly a year ago (January 18 2023) we posted our last Fibonacci MAs study and called for a calculated rally while the rice was still at 20k:
It is now time to expand on our original idea and update it using the Mayer Multiple Bands. Basically, as you can see on the chart below, the Mayer MA helped us on June 17 2022 identify the Bottom Phase on the 1W MA300:
On the current analysis the 1W MA300 is portrayed by the blue trend-line but our focus has shifted to the black trend-line (Mayer Multiple Mean), which just broke emphatically this week. As you can see, when BTC has broken above this level since November 2015 (green circles), it starts aggressive rallies (lowest of those 3 has been the April - June 2019 of +180%).
The dashed curve represents the Bull Cycle Rally phases and if the +180% mininum black trend-line rise is repeated, expect at least $120000 as the current Cycle High. It might be less aggressive than the previous ones (Theory of Diminishing Returns and Cycle lengthening) but it should hit at least the orange trend-line (2nd upper SD) as it has always done in the past.
But what do you think? Are we going to see such a strong rally now that the Mayer Multiple Mean has been broken? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin to $1,000,000 Intuitional takeover . 2025
Lets recap the bear market,
1. Retail destroyed ☑️.
2. Fraudulent exchanges shutdown prior to intuitional bank exchanges opening ☑️.
3. Bitcoin halving next year in 2024 ☑️
4. Bitcoin sitting at an all time time low on the strength index ☑️.
5. Every halving has led to a gigantic blow off top of adoption ☑️.
6. Intuitions have allocated to Bitcoin via MSTR / Miners ☑️.
7. All the kid experts are still short a US stock market that is incredibly undervalued adjusted to the M2 supply ☑️.
8. 5.692 Trillion in money market funds waiting on rate pauses☑️.
9. Bitcoin miners have been granted a pass by the SEC meaning they are clearing Bitcoin for the main stage ☑️.
I'm really not sure what else people want for a perfect entry over the next few years for this asset, on top of that most derivatives are pricing this not happening as retail are selling the contracts still.
P.S Saylor is either going to go down as a man trying to defend his company or he is going to be in the top 10 richest people of the world. Hard enough defending millions try defending billions.
SAYLOR MICHAEL J MICROSTATEGY
2023-02-14 13G/A Citadel Securities GP LLC
2023-02-14 13G SUSQUEHANNA SECURITIES, LLC
2023-02-14 13G JANE STREET GROUP, LLC
2023-02-13 13G/A Capital World Investors
2023-02-13 13G/A Capital International Investors
2023-02-10 13G/A GROUP ONE TRADING, L.P.
2023-02-09 13G/A VANGUARD GROUP INC
2023-02-03 13G/A BlackRock Inc.
BTCUSDT - BIG SHORT!!!!!!On June 28, 2010 Tesla was listed on Nasda, after that 4144 days later tesla stock high. Exactly on 4444 days according to my attached idea there was a start of strong growth on bts from the beginning of bitcoin listing on bitstamp exchange and its first day of trading, it happened on October 16 and the price rose from 26500 to 30000 dollars. Now from the bottom of 15500 is exactly 414 days to the high zone of 48000 dollars, the price rose exactly by 209.63%. code 369\693\963\911.
Based on information we got from elon musk's Twitter feed. Quote: Population of Earth: 8 billion.
Visits on 𝕏 in December: 9.1 billion.
The high is currently set for January 9, 2024.
26.917BTC (89\68 big bang) was sent to Satoshi Nakomoto at exactly 05 Jan 2024 07:51:59 GMT +1. Exactly 4 days 14 hours later bitcoin high was put and like fake news from SEC via BTC ETF hack, it looks like it was all planned in advance to me.
I believe that now we have put bitcoin high and the price will go down unequivocally below 30k dollars. So be careful and if you take information from my idea please tag me. Thank you!
Bitcoin Price Action around the FAKE SEC TweetToday at 4:11 PM EST (UTC-5) the @SECGov Twitter account posted confirmation that Bitcoin ETFs had been approved. Bitcoin price spiked immediately on this news but the following price action is most interesting. The hacker that made the Tweet, presuming the news would create a large, sustained bullish move, likely LOST MONEY on his illicit trade. Tradingview restricts Ideas to 15m or higher so see the 1m chart below:
The fake Tweet caused a rise in price up until 4:15. Price then sold off all the way until 4:26 and only began to recover when the SEC regained control of their account and posted an update refuting the claim.
What is interesting about this is that within 4 minutes it had become a "sell the news" action.
I continue to think that the ETF approval news will in fact be a "sell the news" event when it occurs and this price action gives me some confirmation.
BTCUSD Key Resistance rangeBTCUSD Weekly chart - the price has reached a very important resistance range that has been formed from past low points and consolidation areas ( you can observe them better on a Daily chart ).
This current resistance range stratches from around 46000 to about 53000. The development in this region is very important as it is the last major resistance before the ATH. If the resistance range holds, then the price can go for a substential correction before it gets the chance to go up again. If it breaks through it, then it can quickly go to the previous ATH.
Have in mind that in the following weeks, it's possible for the price to start consolidating in this region until it takes a specific direction
BTC Bitcoin Strong Bullish Will Rise to 37000,46000 and 71000USDBTC Bulls to Retarget $31,500
BTC could be in for a choppy session as investors consider the chances of SEC approvals for the ETFs and US inflation in focus.
the crypto news wires provided much-needed support. News of Fidelity filing for a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) was the key to the bullish session.
This morning, BTC was down 0.03% to $30,524. A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an early high of $30,534 to a low of $30,507.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($30,032). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A hold above S1 ($30,158) and the 50-day EMA ($30,032) would support a move through R1 ($30,882) to give the bulls a run at R2 ($31,232). However, a fall through S1 ($30,158) and the 50-day EMA ($30,032) would bring S2 ($29,784) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 30,882 S1 – $ 30,158
R2 – $ 31,232 S2 – $ 29,784
R3 – $ 31,956 S3 – $ 29,060
Strategy Bullish
3Lots
2 Lots will be excecuted at Profit Target Zones
1Lot will follow the Trend
It will be only!!! excecuted ,if Bullish Trend changes
The stops will be delivered as soon as possible to break even,better some pips above the Buyinh price
I have marked my profit targets
Psychology:
1:The price is always right
2The Market is alwas right
3 The Chart is always right
4 IGNORE THE NEWS; Plan your trades and trade your plan.
5Drawdowns are partof the game
6 Risk management and money mangement is King!
7 wHATEVER HAPPENS;sTICK TO YOUR PLAN!
8 In a bear market no price is weak enough
9 In a bull market no price is strong enough
10 Patience !Wait for confirmation: Control emotions and tensions.
Bitcoin H4 | Potential bullish bounceBitcoin (BTC/USD) could fall towards a pullback support and potentially bounce off this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 45,670.17
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 43,209.61
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 48,988.07
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level.
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BTC/USD - Price Hits $47,000! UP ONLY from here!🚨 Bitcoin reached $47,000!
In my December alpha post I said:
"Use this pennant to guide your analysis. Price breaks above it? Buy the breakout. Price breaks below it? Buy the discounts."
Seems market has decided. UP ONLY! 🚀
More free alpha if you follow me, see links below. Enjoy!