Bitcoin-btcusd
If bitcoin will not reclaim 100K, this will matter!#bitcoin #btc price' s dump has been proceeding as i revealed in my previous ideas. (See my prev. posts). Now, 100K is the bearish retest zone for CRYPTOCAP:BTC . if #btcusd declines at or below 100K usd, there' ll be a serious trouble. Not financial advice.
BTC/USDT Analysis: Is a Key Reversal Brewing?Bitcoin's price action continues to intrigue traders as it consolidates within an ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe. The recent rejection from the channel's upper boundary at $108,000 indicates that bearish pressure might dominate the short term. Currently, BTC trades around $101,450, testing a critical support level near $102,000.
Key Observations:
Ascending Channel in Play: The structure highlights an upward trend, with BTC respecting both the upper and lower boundaries of the channel. The dotted midline has acted as a dynamic pivot, influencing price movement over recent weeks.
Bearish Breakdown Potential: A clear break below $102,000 could lead BTC toward the next significant horizontal support at $98,236. This level aligns closely with the channel's lower boundary, making it a crucial zone for bulls to defend.
Key Resistance Zone: If bulls manage to reclaim $103,000, BTC could retest the midline or even the $106,000 level. However, failure to sustain above the $102,000 support could accelerate a bearish trend.
RSI Divergence: Hidden bearish divergence on the RSI suggests weakening bullish momentum, supporting the case for a deeper correction.
Expected Scenarios:
A retest of $98,000 would provide an excellent opportunity for bullish accumulation within the channel structure.
If the price rebounds from the lower boundary, bulls may aim for $106,000-$108,000 in the medium term.
A confirmed breakdown below $98,000 might invalidate the channel, opening doors for further downside to $94,000.
BITCOIN → Bearish Pressure !!!Bitcoin has formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern on the hourly time frame. This pattern could potentially lead to a price drop to around $99,000 after the pattern breaks.
But as long as this pattern does not break, we cannot say that the price is bearish. Therefore, we should wait for this pattern to break to confirm a bearish trend.
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BITCOIN Will the Channel Up hold or has the Fed condemned it?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having an impressive sustainable price action within the Channel Up pattern since November 12, which despite yesterday's Fed fueled pull-back, is still holding. If it holds, it may follow the same pattern that it did exactly 1 year ago.
As you see, it was again in November 2023 that it traded within a Channel Up, which was supported by the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since October 11. After it broke out, the price reached the 7.0 Fibonacci extension level from the October low, before correcting again.
The situation is very similar today, the 4H MA200 is also holding since Oct 11, the price also formed a 4H Golden Cross on Sep 18, while both fractals started their impressive rallies around the same date (Sep 06 2023 and Sep 11 2024 respectively).
As a result, if the 4H MA200 holds, we can expect BTC to target the 7.0 Fib ext next at $135000.
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BITCOIN Next top is going to surprise you but it SHOULDN'T !!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yet another benchmark, the psychological level of $100k. The market cap is growing and many claim that it can't keep rising as the capitalization would be at unrealistic levels. For one capital inflows seem to be very comfortable right now with BTC investments and there are still billions waiting at the side for the right investment in 2025.
Fundamentals aside, Bitcoin's historic patterns and price action gives us even more reasons to expect (much) higher prices and a Cycle Top that could surprise many.
** Fibonacci Channel Up **
First of all, we've plotted a Channel Up starting from BTC's first Bear Cycle and displayed the Fibonacci retracement levels on it. As you can see, those fit perfectly and catch each Cycle's tops and bottoms very accurately:
1) June 2011 Top on the 0.618 Fib. November 2011 Bottom on the 0.0 Fib.
2) December 2013 Top on the 1.0 Fib. August 17 2015 Bottom on the 0.382 Fib.
3) December 2017 Top on the 1.0 Fib. December 2018 bottom on the 0.5 Fib.
4) April 2021 Top on the 0.786 Fib. November 2022 bottom on the 0.236 Fib.
** Pi Cycle and MM Bands **
Then we have applied the Pi Cycle trend-lines 1 (orange) and 2 (green), which are key trend Resistance and Support levels respectively, combined with the MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) and MMB SD3 below (black trend-line), which are also historically almost the absolute Resistance and Support levels respectively. In the middle of all these is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which during the Parabolic Rally phases (like the one we are currently on), is Bitcoin's main upward force.
** Covering at least 4 Fib ranges **
As you can see, all Cycles broke above at least the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) before making a Top. The first two Cycles even hit the MMB SD3 above (red). Also each Cycle has a proportional Fibonacci Channel level range, covering at least 4 Fib bands (as described above). Cycle 1 covered Fibs 0.618, 0.5, 0.382, 0.236 and 0.0. Cycle 2 covered Fibs 1.0, 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382. Cycle 3 also covered Fibs 1.0, 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382. Cycle 4 covered Fibs 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, 0.382, 0.236.
** Surprise Top **
The MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) is now below Fib 0.618 and it is less likely for BTC to hit it since Cycle 3 didn't. As a result, it is possible that the next Top will be on Fib 0.5 at best (maximum). If that is succeeded towards the end of 2025, and assuming that the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) breaks by then as it always has on every previous Cycle, that gives us a target range for the next Cycle Top within $250k - $350k!
Do you still think that's unrealistic? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The Volatility Index points to strong consolidation nextLast time we analyzed Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in relation to the Volatility Index (VIX), was 4 months ago (August 22, see chart below) and was an extremely successful projection as we took advantage of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) bottom and predicted the $100k Target, which recently got hit:
Once more, we decided to seek the (mostly) negatively correlated patterns of VIX (chart on the right) to determine BTC's (chart on the left) price action in the coming months.
Based on VIX's Channel Down, the fact that it broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and now is rebounding indicates that BTC may be entering a weekly consolidation phase. As you can see on VIX's chart, every time it broke below the 1W MA50 and started rising, Bitcoin entered a multi-week consolidation phase that sometimes was quick and others many months in length. Its 1W RSI is also at a level that relates to all those consolidation phases.
In our opinion this consolidation has more probabilities of being similar to December 04 2023 - January 29 2024, as the post August 2024 rally resembles more the rally that started on August 2023. This highlights the high degree of symmetry within Bitcoin's 2-year Channel Up.
If it continues to replicate that huge Bullish Leg, then we might as well see the rally peaking upon a +195.27% rise again. That could target $145000 by May 2025, which technically would also be marginally above the 1.5 Fibonacci Channel extension, similar to the March 11 2024 High.
So what do you think? Is it possible for Bitcoin to enter a multi-week consolidation now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bullish Patterns and Bitcoin: A Roadmap to $125KAs anticipated by many, following Trump’s election, Bitcoin experienced a significant surge. On November 14th, it encountered its first notable correction during this upward momentum.
In early December, Bitcoin crossed the critical 100k milestone for the first time. However, this achievement was followed by a swift pullback.
Since then, dips have consistently been met with strong buying activity, and as of now, the price has stabilized comfortably above this key psychological level.
The price action since mid-November reveals the formation of an ascending channel, a technical pattern that historically suggests a 70% probability of continuation to the upside.
A decisive breakout above 107k could confirm this bullish scenario, with a measured target for the next leg up around 125k if the pattern fulfills its statistical expectation.
Bitcoin: New Profit Objectives Greater Risk.Bitcoin is poised to push the 104K high after breaking the previous inside bar (buy signal). While this is exciting and a newsworthy event for the casual observer, it is important to recognize some potential turning points from here. While there is no precision to this, it does offer a way to measure profit objectives and compare them to the growing RISK. Once again I will emphasize that swing trades and day trades are the most effective way to contain the large magnitude of RISK that is often overlooked by many.
The blue arrow on the chart points to the 104K all time high. The thing to avoid here is shorting it with the thinking that it will "double top" ect. At this time there are no signs of weakness. The outside bar that developed a week ago has been bought up, along with any minor pullback thereafter. With the trend structure clearly in place, shorts still pose a high risk, especially on swing trade time frames. There are situations where risk on both sides of the market can be high and these are usually good times to be small or be out.
As far as profit objectives: measuring Wave 1 and projecting from the Wave 2 bottom, I see inflection points in the 105K and 113K areas (see horizontal lines). We can use these to anticipate selling activity and prepare to lock in profits, etc. Can price can further? ANYTHING is possible, but as I will ALWAYS say at highs, the probability is lower. The fact that we are in the vicinity of a Wave 5 of 5 of a broader 3 is what clues me into the limited potential.
The initial retrace from the current high (see illustration) or these anticipated profit objectives will serve as a short term buying opportunity (swing trade). As of now, UNTIL the 90K support is broken, I would not be bearish. Look for supports to hold and confirmations to buy on smaller time frames.
It is important to REALIZE that markets move in CYCLES. At some point this bullish cycle will complete and the next corrective cycle will begin. It may be hard to believe at the present time because news and general sentiment is continuously bullish. What will catch most people off guard is when the next cycle begins, it will seem like a normal pullback only this time will it not be followed by new highs. This is when the typical trader/investor gets married to the market because they refuse to adjust to the changing structure. And like over half of the marriages today, it will be costly.
For me, the 90K break will confirm that the broader corrective cycle is in play.
Thank toy for considering my analysis and perspective.
$BTC is Preparing for a Big Rise Again!#Bitcoin had made a big run after closing the 3-week candle in November on the Fibonacci 1.618 level, which was obtained by reference to the July 2023 peak and September 2023 bottom point.
Likewise, the third weekly candle is about to be completed on the Fibonacci 1.618 level, which is obtained by taking the March 2024 peak and August 2024 bottom point as reference.
GBPUSD - Nothing Can Stop It, It's All The Way Up!Here we have the monthly chart for GBPUSD.
GBPUSD 'recently' completed a major ending diagonal. We know this as it was a 5 wave pattern in the form of a wedge. Now that the bottom is in, we're expecting multiyear bullish price action.
Wave 1 can be an impulse or a leading diagonal. For GBPUSD, we are seeing a clear leading diagonal pattern = 5 waves.
We are anticipating one final move up to complete wave 1 and then we'll be seeing a wave 2 correction (as shown in the chart)
Trade Idea: Trading the 5th wave of the Leading Diagonal
- Watch for bullish price action to appear
- Confirmations such as trendline break or BOS can be used to gain an entry
- Once entered, put stops below wave 4
- Target: 1.36 (1,100pips)
Once wave 1 leading diagonal is complete, we'll be back with an update!
If this post gets enough engagement, we'll post lower timeframe charts.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
Bitcoin - Preparing For Another +200% Rally!Bitcoin ( BITSTAMP:BTCUSD ) is just starting a major bullrun:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Bitcoin rallied more than +40% in November and despite the recent bullrun and the all time high breakout, Bitcoin is just starting its next major bullish cycle. Looking at previous price and trend behaviour, it is quite likely that Bitcoin will eventually retest the top of the channel.
Levels to watch: $100.000, $300.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
The last bullish chance of BITCOIN in short term!After this heavy drop, BITCOIN has now formed an ascending triangle in the 1-h time frame, which could be a sign of a bullish trend. Please note that this analysis is in the 1-h time frame.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
_ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BITCOIN This is why $250k is a Cycle Top candidateBitcoin (BTCUSD) is now cruising on the Bull Cycle's most aggressive phase, the Parabolic Rally. We got the final confirmation as it broke above and now established the 1st Standard Deviation from Above (grey trend-line) of the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) as the new Support.
Having already broken above the previous All Time High (ATH) Resistance, every time BTC flipped the 1st SD into Support while above the ATH, it hit at least the 2nd SD (orange trend-line) before the Cycle Top was priced. This level is currently at $181700 but rising along with the trend
What adds a more specific dynamic to the potential Cycle Top though, is that during Bitcoin's 11-year Higher Lows trend-line growth, it posted rallies of at least +1719% on each Cycle. As the Cycles progressed and due to the Law of Diminishing Returns, this rally started lower each time.
This shows the great significance of this rally and as a result, on the current Cycle with can estimate from its very bottom (November 2022). This suggests that we can reach at least $250k before or around the time the 2nd SD is tested. In addition, all Cycles have topped after the 1M RSI makes contact with its historic Lower Highs trend-line.
So what do you think? Is $250k a strong candidate for a Cycle Top? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC Bitcoin Bear Market If you haven`t bought BTC before the recent rally:
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to retrace in December before starting a recovery around March. This pattern could repeat this season, with BTC facing selling pressure as year-end portfolio rebalancing and macro uncertainties weigh on the market.
While a brief Santa Claus rally might provide temporary relief, the bearish trend is expected to dominate until March. By then, BTC could trade below $84K before regaining momentum, aligning with its historical recovery trend as market conditions stabilize in spring.
Bitcoin Is About To Enter 100K Area SoonBitcoin with ticker BTCUSD is coming and moving nicely higher as expected, after Donald Trump won US elections, so coin remains in a strong bullish five-wave impulse on a daily chart with room even up to 130k-150k area. Price came nicely higher, out of a recent wave 4 consolidation into wave 5 of an extended wave (3) close to 100k area in the 4-hour chart. Now that BTC is slowing down, seems like it's making a higher degree correction in wave (4) before the uptrend for wave (5) of 3 towards 100k area resumes. It's ideally forming a bullish triangle pattern in wave (4), but alternatively be also aware of a deeper correction, which can still retest 90k-85k support zone.