BTCUSD Update: Retest 100K or New Moves Ahead?Good morning, crypto enthusiasts! Today, the fear and greed index remains in extreme greed at 78, while the stochastic RSI has dropped to the oversold area at 9.
In the previous market update, I mentioned the potential for BTC to visit the 93K area. This morning, it dropped to around the 94K price range, which leads me to consider the 93K area invalid. So, where is BTC heading next?
Based on today’s price action, there’s a big probability for a retest of the 100K area. Following this, I see two possible scenarios considering the current extreme greed zone:
A pump to 105K–109K.
A dump to the 90K–85K area.
Stay safe, avoid FOMO, and always manage your risk. That’s all for today’s crypto update. Akki signing off, one chart at a time. Have a nice day and stay SAFU!
Bitcoin-btcusd
BITCOIN nothing to stop it now! Can top anywhere inside 250-400kMore than 1 year ago (September 05 2023, see chart below), we published the following Bitcoin (BTCUSD) idea, which very illustratively presented the potential course of the new Bull Cycle:
As you can see, BTC managed to trade an entire year rising within this green Arc pattern and always below the Cyclical Pivot trend-line that emerged from the bottom of the 2018 Bear Cycle.
We made the last update on this chart last August (20 2024), where we called the end of the 5-month correction since March and the start of the new Phase (final Parabolic Rally) of the Bull Cycle.
** The key hold of the 1W MA50 **
The key for that call was the fact that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) held twice during the August sell-off and supported. As you can see, on all of BTC Bull Cycles, the 1W MA50 has been supporting post Halving and never broke until after the Top and the start of the new Bear Cycle.
** Symmetry of pre and post-Having **
Given that historically the Bull Cycle lasts post-Halving almost the time it lasted from the bottom to the Halving, we should expect its top around December 2025 - January 2026 and if it is on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line, then it could be as high as 400k.
However, even on a less optimistic scenario where it lasts 1064 days (152 weeks) from the Bottom (not counting FTX crash), like the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, we can expect a peak a little over $200000 on the Cyclical Pivot trend-line.
** The 1W RSI series of Tops **
It is important to notice that the 1W RSI is recovering from the overbought volatility correction, having dropped from a massively overbought 88.50 High (March 04) to a practically bearish 45.00 Low (September 02). As this chart shows, BTC tends to top on levels similar to the first 1W RSI of the Cycle, so there is still a lot of way to go before it tops, especially if it follows the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle, which had four almost symmetrical such Tops.
But what do you think? Are you also expecting Bitcoin to top anywhere within a $250 - $400k range? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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All Stars Aligned: Bitcoin, Gold, Fiat, and DebtThis post explores the idea that Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," might one day replace gold as the preferred store of value.
Gold’s price (shown in yellow) has traditionally been sensitive to inflation, which is influenced by money printing, as indicated by the US M2 money supply (shown in white on the chart). Geopolitical and economic insecurity also drives demand for gold, the "safe-haven" metal. To add further context, I've also included US debt (shown in red).
The chart reveals that the market seems to have found some form of equilibrium at current levels, with gold’s price finally tracking the M2 money supply and debt parameters closely. Interestingly, Bitcoin (shown in orange) has mirrored this behavior in a similar fast-paced manner.
Around the $3,000 mark for gold and near $100,000 for Bitcoin, both assets are aligning with the money supply and debt trends. This suggests that any further price increases could be limited unless additional money is printed or debt increases. Of course, a Black Swan event could disrupt this equilibrium at any time.
I also used TradingView’s Correlation Coefficient tool to examine the relationship between Bitcoin and gold. The correlation is impressively high at 0.87, indicating an almost perfect alignment between the two assets.
The chart supports the idea that Bitcoin is tracking gold closely, strengthening the notion that Bitcoin could indeed be positioning itself as the "digital gold" of the future.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
BTCUSD Update: Correction or Pump to 107K?Good morning, crypto enthusiasts! Today, the fear and greed index remains in extreme greed at 78, while the stochastic RSI is sideways at 40.
From a price action perspective, there’s a higher probability of BTC revisiting the 93K area for a deeper correction. However, there’s a small chance of a pump to around 107K.
Stay safe, avoid FOMO, and always manage your risk. That’s all for today’s crypto update. Akki signing off, one chart at a time. Have a nice day and stay SAFU!
Bitcoin: Signs Of A Cycle High.Bitcoin could be developing a Wave 5 of a broader 5th wave which would complete an even larger Wave 3 (see monthly chart). IF this is confirms, it implies that a much larger corrective cycle (Wave IV) has a greater chance of unfolding. This corrective cycle can see price retest 70K and STILL BE WITHIN a bullish configuration. Such a move can take 6 months to a year to play out. While wave counts do not promise a high degree of accuracy, they can be helpful to estimate the amount of RISK in the future. Based on this wave count, I can at least conclude that current levels are EXTREMELY unattractive when it comes to putting new money to work in terms of investing.
Some signs that point to a potential cycle peak: possible double top formation near the 100K area. A large outside bar formation (see arrow). Countless video titles on Youtube that push becoming a "millionaire" (this is a sign of extreme sentiment). Scammers on the rise literally pumping and dumping meme coins on Youtube streams. Michael Saylor's face on countless thumbnails. While many of these signs are not technical, they illustrate the sentiment of the retail investor and it is usually at these times when the market is MOST vulnerable to turning. This process is NOTHING new, but it can be observed in new ways thanks to the social internet.
The outside bar that went from the all time high of 104K back to 91K (most of that move occurred within an hour), is a sign that much of this move is on nothing but hot air in my opinion. Yes it recovered, but all it takes is some unexpected catalyst to see the move stick the next time. While the trend has yet to change, this activity highlights the high degree of risk that is present at current levels. While there is never a bad time to invest, price levels are not created equal when it comes to RISK.
I will ALWAYS say this at highs: these are prices to reduce risk, take some profits, or invest SMALL. Price action at current levels is ideal for short term strategies like swing trades, day trades, etc. The price area to be waiting for when it comes to putting larger amounts of new money to work is between the 80K to 70K area which is where the cycle low can establish itself while still maintaining a bullish outlook. IF 70K is compromised (it can happen) that would negate the broader bullish structure and expectations should be adjusted at that time. This is NOT a forecast, just a potential scenario to be prepared for.
There is no way to forecast the future with any degree of accuracy. All it takes is an unexpected catalyst and everything changes overnight. Markets are highly random, so the ONLY factor we can control is the RISK we take. Imagine buying this on the 100K breakout, only to see a test of 90K area to follow. Why wasn't ANYONE forecasting that little move? Learn to measure and respect risk because "reward" is nothing more than a byproduct of good risk management.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD - 11-12 december reversal dayThe system on the chart allows you to predict the potential reversal point of the price in the future also it is the blackhall zone where the price is attracted like a magnet and then there is an explosive rise or fall, given the bullish trend and some other factors mentioned in other ideas on altcoins, I think there will be the beginning of a strong growth.
Bitcoin market analysis Key Indicators for a Possible Bitcoin Drop:
1. Descending Resistance (Trendlines):
• The red trendlines on both charts indicate a series of lower highs, suggesting sellers are becoming increasingly dominant.
• This descending resistance reflects bearish sentiment, as buyers fail to push prices above prior peaks.
2. Support Levels in Danger:
• The 1-hour chart highlights a critical green support zone between $90,000 and $89,000.
• Repeated testing of support levels without a significant bounce often signals weakening demand, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown.
3. Rejection at Key Levels:
• Both charts show price rejections near resistance levels. Repeated failures at these points indicate strong selling pressure and a lack of bullish momentum.
4. Divergences in Momentum Indicators:
• The bottom indicators in the charts, likely oscillators like RSI or MACD, appear to show bearish divergences. This suggests that while prices attempted rallies, underlying momentum weakened.
5. Short-Term Breakdown:
• The 5-minute chart depicts a sharp drop and subsequent consolidation below a key price level ($102,500). This consolidation might represent a bear flag, a continuation pattern signaling further downside.
6. Market Context (Macroeconomic Events):
• Upcoming economic data releases (referenced from Forex Factory) can introduce volatility. If the data is bearish for risk assets (e.g., hawkish Fed policies, poor global growth indicators), Bitcoin could face further downward pressure.
Outlook:
• A break below the green support levels (~$90,000) could trigger a cascading sell-off, with $85,000 or lower as the next potential target.
• However, sustained consolidation or a sudden bullish catalyst above $102,500 would invalidate this bearish thesis.
The cyclical nature of Bitcoin by RB
Hello, dear friends!😊 I present to Your attention a weekly chart of Bitcoin, which includes price action since 2016, helping us to see a more complete picture and forecast further price behavior.👍
Today, let's focus our attention on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin .
The cyclical nature of Bitcoin is a concept based on observing repetitive patterns and phases in its price dynamics.
On the chart, You can see a huge ascending broadening wedge, which I marked in white 🤍. The price has been within it since 2016. 😳 At the moment, it can be assumed that the price is aiming for the upper boundary of this wedge. 🚀
Inside this wedge, I noticed a very interesting regularity, which I'm eager to share with You.❤️
For the THIRD time, every three years, after the distribution phase (marked in orange), the price follows a significant rise of 550 percent, followed by the formation of a descending wedge, which ends with the same distribution phase and subsequent rise.
If we assume that this cyclicality is true and will repeat more, then by the end of this year or the beginning of the next, Bitcoin could reach $160,000.😱
🧐What do You think about this? Is this scenario realistic? What are You waiting for and what are You counting on?
Share Your thoughts with me in the comments!🙏
Thanks for Your attention🫶
Always sincerely Yours, Kateryna💙💛
BITCOIN Holding the level - 98000Let's not discard the rally just yet. I see the buyers are still present but the overhead supply is a matter of concern.
So, here is my view:
Support level - 98000
As long as the price does not close below 97500 on the hourly chart, this is still a buyers' controlled setup.
Supply zone - All time high is the only and a very strong rejection zone. BTC will find it very hard to hold and break above ATH. So I am not very convinced about the upside momentum.
Possibility:
BTC could slowly further move up here and should form a base.
The consolidation around the drawn levels could be a nice place to play long or wait for the base breakout above ATH.
This is not a recommendation.
Bitcoin breaks $100,000! A historic milestone.For the first time in history, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has crossed the $100,000 mark, rising 40% in just one month!
Experts say this sharp rise is linked to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. Analysts believe the crypto market is reacting to Trump’s promises to simplify regulations and make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.” At its peak, Bitcoin reached $104,500 per coin!
During his campaign, Trump actively promoted cryptocurrencies: accepting Bitcoin donations, using crypto for purchases, and highlighting blockchain as the future of the economy. The day after his election win, Bitcoin’s price jumped from $68,000 to $74,000 and then started to climb even faster as excitement grew around his plans.
What does this mean for global markets?
U.S. economy: Hopes for easier regulations are increasing demand for crypto in the U.S. and bringing more investment into blockchain technology. Trump’s choice of Paul Atkins, a known crypto supporter, as the head of the SEC could speed up decisions that benefit the industry.
Global competition: Analysts think other countries might start buying Bitcoin to keep up with the U.S. This could create a global race for digital currency and push prices even higher.
What should traders expect?
More volatility: Bitcoin’s fast rise could lead to bigger price swings. While this offers short-term trading possibilities, a clear trend could also let traders profit from price corrections.
Altcoin growth: After Bitcoin’s surge, attention often shifts to altcoins. In the past, such events have boosted Ethereum (ETHUSD) and other projects. Solana (SOLUSD) , the second-largest altcoin by market cap, is already trading at around $240, and experts believe it could go higher.
Institutional buying: With Trump supporting crypto, more big investors may join the market. This could bring steady growth. Companies like MicroStrategy (#MicroStrgy ), led by Michael Saylor, have already been buying Bitcoin, and Trump’s presidency could inspire others to follow.
Donald Trump’s election win and his crypto-friendly stance have caused a historic Bitcoin rally. This trend is opening new doors for traders.
FreshForex analysts believe this growth is a turning point in crypto history! With Trump’s inauguration and a possible altcoin season ahead, now is the time to take your chance and become a crypto millionaire!
Bitcoins outlook is very nice thank youIt helps to zoom out sometimes and reflect at where we are in this market cycle. Which was 100k , yesterday!!! WHAT A MILESTONE, if your new then welcome, if you been here for a while you know how much of a bloody achievement this is!
Previous history would have the probability of more upside in favour here as seen on the chart. Good time to be in crypto but also a taking profit point if there ever was one. I personally lost all my bitcoin last cycle chasing the market as it was taking a turn for the worst, trying to make it back at the end of alt season rather than the beginning.
So right now I am spread across good performing Alts, and taking some profits off the table in them, not everything though. DOGE, XRP, VIRTUAL, SUI etc, let me know if you want some charts.
Otherwise, what a world we are in, the digital gold is taking off just like some of us knew it would! Limited supply does matter, especially in a world of inflation and constant money printing. Bitcoins not going up, the value of USD and FIAT is going down!
NFA
Happy trading.
Trading opportunity for BTCUSDT BitcoinBased on technical factors there is a Buy position in :
📊 BTCUSDT
🔵 Buy Now
🪫Stop loss 92750.00
🔋Target 1 106500.00
🔋Target 2 109900.00
🔋Target 3 115000.00
💸RISK : 1%
We hope it is profitable for you ❤️
Please support our activity with your likes👍 and comments📝
BTCUSD Hits 100K, but Is Correction Looming?Good morning, crypto enthusiasts! BTC finally hit the long-awaited 100K milestone, reaching as high as 104K on some exchanges. However, this morning saw a significant drop, breaking through our red zone at 94K-93K.
The fear and greed index has dropped to 72, now in the greed zone. On the H4 timeframe, the stochastic RSI is at 39 and heading toward the oversold area. Looking at the Daily timeframe, BTC has a big chance of continuing its correction, with potential targets in the 84K range, or pushing the fear and greed index toward the neutral zone first.
Currently, there’s no clear sign of another pump for BTC, and even if it happens, it might only retest 100K within our green zone.
Stay safe, avoid FOMO, and always manage your risk. That’s all for today’s crypto update. Akki signing off, one chart at a time. Have a nice day and stay SAFU!
BITCOIN $BTCUSD | BITCOIN OVER $100,000 ! Dec05'24BITCOIN BITSTAMP:BTCUSD | BITCOIN OVER $100,000 Dec05'24
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Trends:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Weekly: Bullish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Daily: Bullish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 4H: Bullish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 1H: Bearish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD rallied over $100,000 for the first time ever, and just recently price fell all the way to around $92,250. Unsure where BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is headed next but thought I'd throw my indicators and a few quick drawings on the charts. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD also has an ascending triangle pattern that could be a good opportunity for trade entries.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD pullback prices:
Is a pullback to $69,000 heating up, here are my potential pullback areas:
91,500
90,500
85,500
77,000
72,000
69,000
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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BTC | BITCOIN ATH | ALTSEASON A comprehensive analysis today on my take regarding Bitcoin , BTC All time High, and for how long we can still expect to see altseason.
When I say altseason, what I am referring to is hard pumps and large increases, scattered across the altcoin market.
In the previous BTC update, I considered an ATH between 99k and 105k. More on that here :
Today's main "concern" is really whether or not the alt-rallies are finished - and I say, not yet .
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BINANCE:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Be careful with BITCOIN !!!If we measure the AB range, which is 45% , we can say that the price will easily grow 45% equal to CD. AB=CD
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BITCOIN Where were you when it broke $100000 ??It is officially history! Bitcoin (BTCUSD) finally broke the ultimate (until the next one!) psychological level of $100000. A price tag that was discussed as myth/ desire/ utopia not so many years ago. Perhaps the level that will go down in history as the future global currency's transition from its retail to the institutional phase (thanks Blackrock!) and on its way towards an eventual mass adoption (Amazon, X, Netflix and others are you listening?).
Well this post isn't an analysis. It's a festive one, a well deserved round of victory for HODLers who ignored for so many year the pessimists, the negative ones, the "Bitcoin is a scam", "Bitcoin is a fraud", "Bitcoin is going to zero" ones and kept holding. And those who will keep holding until perhaps $1000000? Who knows? Who can now deny it??
Well, lets have it. In the future you are going to hear the following a lot.
"Where were you daddy/ mommy/ grandpa/ grandma, when Bitcoin broke $100000?"
Indeed, and it will be a valid question. This will be bigger than the classics of why didn't you buy Amazon, Google etc in the late 90s/ early 00s. Or Gold in the early 1900s (yes great grandpa, that's for you!).
So let's wrap it up and this is a call for all of you to answer it and make a fun discussion in the comments section below:
" WHAT WERE YOU DOING WHEN BITCOIN BROKE $100k??? "
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100K The Countdown Begins- We are so close.
- To every Bitcoin holder who has weathered the highs and lows, celebrated the peaks, and endured the troughs—remember, you are not just an investor.
- You are a believer in a decentralized future, a pioneer of financial sovereignty, and a guardian of the idea that true value transcends borders, governments, and time itself.
- Holding Bitcoin is not merely holding an asset; it’s holding a piece of the revolution that will shape generations to come.
Keep the faith, for the future belongs to those bold enough to believe in it.
Thank you to all my followers for constantly inspiring me to share more analyses. Your support means the world—love you all!
PS : This isn’t an analysis. it's a heartfelt congratulations!
Happy Tr4Ding !
$100,000!! Capital could rotate into the Sol system again.Solana space obviously leading this altcoin market and has been for a while now. The Tron breakout of all time highs does undermine SOL somewhat but not really the Solana space. With Solana space breaking out like it did so aggressively at the end of 2023 was the first rotation of BTC gains.
I think its quite possible that Solana space gets first rotation of these new BTC gains.
Bitcoins been climbing up the measuredmove line like a staircaseAs often happens, we can see the past 7 daily candles have used the dotted red measured move line like a staircase as it slowly ascends it towards the full breakout target around 100k. It always amuses me when I see price using a breakout target line in this fashion. Just another reminder that TA works. *not financial advice*
BTCUSD Approaching Key Resistance: Will 99K Hold?Good morning, crypto enthusiasts! Today’s fear and greed index stands at 84, maintaining extreme greed status. Meanwhile, the stochastic RSI has entered the oversold area, sitting at 88.
From a price action perspective, the range of 96,900 - 97,500 has been successfully broken. The next target is 99K. However, caution is advised as there’s a potential correction range between 98,061 - 96,911.
Stay safe, avoid FOMO, and always manage your risk. That’s all for today’s crypto update. Akki signing off, one chart at a time. Have a nice day and stay SAFU!