4H Consolidation TradeOk so, I'm drawing some conclusions here that can help take some positions here right away.
First, this descending blue trendline looks like a point of interest. Since closing below it, we have not once closed above it. That can fall apart anytime but some value here on direction for now.
Second, I'm going to factor a bearish trend (extended descending red channel) until we challenge this. Important inflexion point for me to confirm upside.
Third, we've seen a pretty clear short term uptrend in prices but we're giving up the bottom now as we wedge into resistance. Weak.
Price is telling us that we're still seeing a lack of demand. Although we took out a small level, we're still seeing lower highs on decreasing volume overall. Not really buying it until I see something more. Won't be heartbroken if we breakout here because it just looks nasty.
As you know, I'm looking for long cover but this not the spot. Short term bearish technicals are telling me there's room to the downside here. We've retraced to 3550 quite a few times in this consolidation period so any shorts could probably target there pretty safely.
I'm skeptical how many times this trade will play out so beware of the headfake here. You might want to play the stops of your intended entries in case of a nasty stop run. Keep it tight though because this is a bullish trend in the long term.
Let's remember though, we're still extended considering the size of that move. Bitcoin is known to give back more of these towering runs. Patterned with signs of no demand, I think expectancy here is bearish.
Sell it. At the top of the range like this your entries can hug your stops. That means bigger size with more profit range. Similar trade to yesterday. If we're targeting 10R you could get this trade wrong 9 times and still cover. Let's see how it does. Should at least get our razz on if we're going to watch consolidation.
Bitcoin-consolidation
Trading Plan Oct-NovBUY: new high, break of 248
TP: along the targets up to 281
SELL: break of black trend line & failure to break 248
TP: around 232.5 - 235 / Build a new long position from there.
HOLD: if you are long, the break of the C&H neckline indicated that price will try to reach the C&H target 256-258
A break of 248 would indicate that price will be trying to reach the double bottom target 268 - 273
OTE SELL ZONE: Look for reversal signals there and establish a short position
The white & red forecast drawings are just for the purpose of orientation.
1hr BTC (Finex) The dead cat bounced, now what??Hello all,
Since Google hangouts is still down for me (super big ugh) I am posting this 1hr chart as an update for my followers. I am not in a trade at the moment and have little interest in taking a new position based on current trade location and size of my account. Having said that, there are those out there that do want/need to trade and so with that in mind, here are my thoughts.
As was previously mentioned, BTC has regained some of its volatility of late and price swings of greater than 10% in either direction shouldn't be unexpected. We did indeed bottom off the OTE long sweet spot tag mentioned in yesterday's post and that rally was substantial. So much so, that it broke the existing bearish ab=cd price pattern and has put the bear back into his box for the time being. However that rally also built in some bearish divergences that need to be cleaned up before any new rally highs can be seen. Indeed, Willy got a little 'stupid' and the buying volume registered a divergence too. Interestingly, we do have the big FBI auction coming up shortly and I see that as we head into that event many of the higher time frame over-bought /oversold conditions have been resolved....maybe a little consolidation is needed before we get our next move in earnest.
So at the moment, consolidation targets '1st stop' (38.2) and OTE (long) zones ought to represent reloading zones should the bull want to press forward. Once into the OTE (short) zone I would be rather cautious as to further upside objectives.
Cheers all and hope it helps
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