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Bitcoin-cycle

XAU/BTC - Gold and Bitcoin outlook for next 6 months ?GOLD & BITCOIN OUTLOOK for the ppl saying that TVC:GOLD is outperforming CRYPTOCAP:BTC Well... not really as you can see at a relatively big timeframe on this XAU/BTC chart what is happening now ? well XAU had a rebound mid March, making a +66% pullback, it seems a lot but as you can see during august 2020 it felt 85% ! 1. made it to the previous resistance quite hardly, first sign about the bearish approach that could arrive 2. we are now around , in fact around a very hot zone, 0.4 , if we go above, more chance to see bullish moves in this chart, meaning that Gold could go more up and/or Btc could go more down, its a weekly timeframe so, im talking about a 6 months move BUT, I think XAU/BTC will not be able to pass that resistance and will in fact go big red candles till spring 3. if you look at what happened 4 years ago just copy paste it now, you should have a view of the next 5-6 months for both assets Not saying that gold is gonna plummet and XAU/BTC will go -85% this time but it should bring it a bit down, as in august 2020 it was also going parabolic and went -20% in 6 months so yes im expecting gold to go -20% during the 6 next months and of course BTC to go UPPPPPP so if they're one thing to retain here, its that Gold seems now inversely linked to the 4 years BTC cycle ! And this is quite interesting because it means that BTC has a lot more power and influence than people think Cheers & thx for reading
TVC:XAUBTCShort
by Investwine
Rule of 160: History Predicts Start Of Bull-Run This Week!In this analysis I want to take a closer look at previous bull-cycles and Bitcoin's behaviour in the months following the halving. The vertical yellow line is the date of the halving. The purple rectangle is the price action of the 160 days following the halving. We can very clearly see a few interesting similarities between the last three cycles: - The price pumps prior to the halving. - The price trades sideways for 160 days after the halving. - The "real" bull-run starts after the sideways price action has ended. If we follow the Rule of 160, the start of the next big bull-run would be somewhere around 27 september, which is this week! I'm aware that market conditions are different now than they were back then. Still, BTC is a very cyclical asset and has historically followed calendar based trends. There's data to suggest that we have to come down (check my previous posts), but there's also data like this that suggests that the price will increase. Time will tell. Interested to hear your opinions!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
10
Bitcoin CyclesEach Bitcoin boom has ended in about 85% draw down in 2014 and in 2017. Right now the drawdown is at 75% for the 2021 cycle. If we see a similar drawdown of 85% it will be at around ~10000. My guess is that will not happen and that our current 75% draw down is what we will get this cycle but if we get a drawdown to the low teens I'll be backing up the money truck. Each Bitcoin ATH to cycle low has been 89 weeks and 52 weeks respectively. If this is the current cycle's low then that puts it at 61 weeks as marked on the chart, which is between 89 and 52. If the boom and bust cycles continue due to the halvings I'm betting this is the bottom. Each Bitcoin previous ATH to breaking that ATH is marked on the chart. They are 168 weeks and 154 weeks respectively. If we take the average of that we can expect this cycle to take 161 weeks to work out. This puts it around May of 2024 right around the current predicted halving date. RSI is slated for a breakout around the end of the year - we could see a mini cycle like we did in the summer of 2019 after this break. My current prediction is that this is the time to be aggressively dollar cost averaging. I will be buying each week until my powder is dry and if we complete an 85% drawdown I will be going all in.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by malacus
3
New cycle beginsBitcoin is turning bullish on a weekly basis for the first time after a deep red bear market phase. This is a huge signal and usually indicates the beginning of the next cycle. I have marked the deep red phase in purple and the first weekly signal with an arrow on the chart. This is the first phase of the cycle, so I would not expect any crazy end-of-cycle moves. But for now, dips should be a gift from heaven. In the past we have seen 30-50% corrections within the cycle. So we need to be prepared for that as BTC approaches and breaks its ath. We will have to figure out the target during the next year but I think it will be 6 digits.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by koryu
1
BTC is dumping fast.Bitcoin, like any other asset, can experience price fluctuations driven by various factors, including market sentiment, news events, regulatory changes, and technological developments. Some individuals may seek to exploit these fluctuations for profit through strategies such as quick dumps (selling off large amounts of Bitcoin rapidly) and buying when prices are perceived to be low. Here are some motivations and opportunities associated with such strategies: Volatility: Bitcoin is known for its price volatility, which can create opportunities for traders to profit from short-term price movements. Quick dumps and buying cheap can be strategies employed to take advantage of these fluctuations. Arbitrage: Differences in Bitcoin prices across different exchanges or markets can create arbitrage opportunities. Traders may exploit these price differentials by buying Bitcoin where it's cheaper and selling where it's more expensive, profiting from the price spread. Market Timing: Traders may attempt to time the market by selling Bitcoin during periods of high prices (quick dumps) and buying when prices are low. This strategy involves predicting price movements based on technical analysis, market trends, or fundamental factors. Scalping: Scalping is a trading strategy where traders aim to profit from small price changes by executing a large number of trades within a short time frame. Traders employing this strategy may engage in quick dumps and buying cheap to capture small profits repeatedly. Risk Management: Some investors may use quick dumps to manage risk by selling a portion of their Bitcoin holdings when they perceive the market to be overvalued or when they anticipate a price decline. They may then buy back at lower prices to increase their Bitcoin holdings. It's important to note that while these strategies offer potential profit opportunities, they also come with significant risks. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable, and trading strategies based on short-term price movements can result in substantial losses if not executed carefully. Additionally, regulatory changes, technological vulnerabilities, and market manipulation are factors that can impact the success of such trading strategies. Therefore, individuals considering engaging in these activities should conduct thorough research, use proper risk management techniques, and consider consulting with financial professionals.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TrojanBible
BTC in 2024 and 2025. New ATHLet's play to see the future. It's just a game, but it rhymes with previous #BTC cycles. From the beginning of 2024 until the moment of the halving, as in previous cycles, I think we could suffer a #BTC correction of between 20% and 30% at most. Then a not very aggressive journey will begin where we will move away from the average of 200 weekly periods until we surpass the new ATH of #BTC. At that moment, #BTC may lateralize for a few days or even make a correction of 15% or 20% and head quickly to a new ATH and maximum of this cycle. I think the new ATH could leave it around $150,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Markitos32
🔥 Comparing Bear Markets: This Time Is NOT DifferentIn this analysis I want to shed some light on the fact that the 2-week is an amazing tool to determine the start and end of Bitcoin trading cycles. In this specific example, I'm comparing all three previous bear-markets. Note that the MACD has performed in a very similar fashion. The first bearish cross confirms the bear-market, and the first bullish cross confirms the next cycle. Keep in mind that 2022 got another cross because of the July-Nov pump. In my view, crypto "topped" in March of 2021 because that's when all the technicals and on-chain analytics topped as well. Furthermore, the November 2022 top didn't make a new MACD high, making it a bearish divergence. Looking at the chart, I think we can confirm that a new cycle has started. Sure, we will see bullish and bearish times for the foreseeable future, but I highly doubt whether we're going to make new lows from here onwards. Share your thoughts 🙏
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
11
BTC Potential Next MoveHello everyone! BTC is close to forming a double bottom on the weekly TF at 18.5k suggesting potential cycle bottom and the opportunity for reversal. If it is able to close above 2017 ATH level of 19.8k double bottom is validated but invalidated if close below. With that, it is close to meeting with the downtrend that started in November at ATH and been respected since. I see two potential moves coming from these two readings. Option 1- A breakout of the downtrend based on the double-bottom reversal momentum resulting in a push to 24k. From there if it is able to hold above the 200 MA 28k is the level I see. A rejection at the 200 MA and I see consolidation between 18k and 24k continue. Option 2- Weekly close below 2017 ATH and 12.4k is the next outcome. Based on historical price action, all major BTC cycles (Early 2013, Late 2013, and 2017) have come back to the 0.382 Fib of the previous cycle before starting the next so for the current cycle 12.4k is the bottom and highly probable to be the next level hit. We will see which one plays out.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by rivergillin
BTC/USD cycle bottom found - time to celebrate?This analysis is not intended to be a piece of financial advice. It is affirmative to believe that Bitcoin Cycle Bottom is technically formed and found. The market may show some rally, as well as a reversal to retest the Cycle formation so the swings will benefit. Markets may anticipate some relief as the labor report is above expected numbers. The next interest rate may likely be not 75 basis points; instead, it is likely that Fed may reconsider going for 50 basis points that will help sustain the Bottom Formation. Still not a time to go Long. If one should, setting a limit of 18.8k can prove to be a wiser move.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by coreSATS
BTC - 1,2-jump,3,4Hello . Before I start, let me say that I did not put those numbers on the chart like this by chance, each of which indicates a state of the market (I will explain later) What are the truths that exist : 1. The price is close to key support - we will probably see a fakeout which is good :) The reason is that everyone is waiting for the price to support and prepare for it. I promise many of you have set alarms for that area :) 2. Last year, we had an accumulation phase in the same price range that we are in now. If history repeats itself, we can see bitcoins above $ 60,000 again Is history repeating itself? (Likes and comments are not taxed)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by script051
3
Bitcoin cycle top potentially reachedThis cycle ends with an ending diagonal at 68 k. I expected the top to be a little higher at around 75 k but short and long term the elliott wave count is potentially completed. Next short term stop could be 48 k. The long term is unpredicable but this could be the first major correction of the bitcoin price. I rather watch the markets step by step, so let's see what surprises this market brings. It could have to do with Dr. Craig Wright and BSV but I will make another analysis for that subject. By the way, the analysis on btc goes hand in hand with the stock market. Altcoins and small cap stocks can go different ways sometimes but many alts already broke down, so I would be very careful.
Short
by mptrading74675
4
Bitcoin The Current 4-year Cycle OutlookHere Yearly 4x60 Day step + about 120 Consolidation. What are market cycles? A market cycle refers to a pattern or repeating trend that happens within a financial market. A bull market followed by a bear market is an example of a market cycle because it's a pattern that has happened many times in the financial markets. There are many different types of market cycles but bull and bear markets are the most common. The length of market cycles will differ and won't necessarily be the same every time. For example, if there is a bull market that lasts 6 months, the next bull market may only last 4. What are the stages of a market cycle? Typically, a market cycle will go through four different stages in order; accumulation, uptrend, distribution, downtrend. 1. Accumulation: The accumulation stage happens after prices have hit a bottom. During this, the price has become more stable and investors begin to buy again - they “accumulate”. 2. Uptrend: Then the markup stage happens, where all the buying during the accumulation stage has started to cause the price to increase. This stage usually indicates the start of a bull market. 3. Distribution: Then the distribution stage happens where the price begins to reach its peak, where people start selling. 4. Downtrend: Finally, the downtrend stage happens, where the price has hit its peak and now starts to fall. This is the start of a bear market. What is the Bitcoin 4 year cycle? The Bitcoin 4 year cycle is very similar to the 4 stages of a market cycle, explained above. The four stages of the Bitcoin 4 year cycle are; exponential highs, correction, accumulation, and continuation. Although the Bitcoin cycle starts in a different stage, it still happens in the same order as the stages of a market cycle.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by StanPodd
4
🔥 Bitcoin Realistic Top Prediction For The CycleOnce in a while I like to discover long-term predictions and analyses for the crypto market. For the current analysis I want to look at (logarithmic) Fibonacci extension lines. I found out that the 1.272 and 2.272 extensions are seemingly very important for the last two cycles. The Fibonacci extension is measured from previous cycle top to next cycle bottom. During every cycle, Bitcoin sees some form of mid-cycle correction towards the 1.272 extension. This Fibonacci extension then functions as a spring to allow the price rise towards the 2.272 extension. The 2.272 extension predicts a remarkable close top of the cycle. During the second Bitcoin cycle one can clearly see the price rising above the 1.272 extension, re-testing it and continueing the move towards the 2.272 extension, which was also the top for the cycle. During the last (third) Bitcoin cycle, you can see the same thing happening. Although the retracement to the 1.272 extension was less potent and of a shorter duration, it still functioned as a spring for BTC. After the re-test the price went all the way up to the 2.272, where that area functioned as a clean indication of the top. This long-term analysis can be used in conjunction with my other long-term analysis (see above). With the current analysis predicting a cycle top around $215k, it would mean that Bitcoin will top somewhere in February 2022. I come by this conclusion by following the blue line in the analysis above and marking the date where it hits ~$215k. Obviously, this analysis is based on speculation. However, I find the Fibonacci extensions to hold up surprisingly well over the years. Furthermore, it supports my argument that the dip that we saw from May to July was nothing more than a mid-term correction. Hope you enjoy. Happy trading!
BNC:BLXLong
by FieryTrading
7
🔥 Comparing Different Bitcoin CyclesWith this analysis I want to shed some light on where we currently are in the fourth Bitcoin bull-cycle, compared to the previous three cycles. I measure the cycle from low after previous cycle to high of the cycle. There are different ways of drawing the cycles (comparing halvings for example), but for me this one makes the most sense. There's several very interesting things that one can deduce from this graph. 1) The cycles are getting less intense. The difference between the top and the low is relatively diminishing, making each cycle less explosive than the previous. 2) The cycles are getting longer. With each new cycle, it takes longer to reach the top of the cycle. "Time is your friend" has never been more fitting. When we look at the current cycle we can see a couple of things that are standing out from the other cycles. 1) There's been several occasions where the current cycle "went too fast" comparing to other cycles, after which BTC had to cool off for a couple of months. This has been a major thing with the most recent sell-off from 65k > 30k. BTC was ahead of schedule by a lot, so it had to correct by a lot to get below the previous cycle's growth path. 2) The current cycle is the most volatile one, which is caused by the COVID dump last year and the subsequent massive quantitative easing that followed. In previous analyses I've mentioned that I think that we're currently in a mid-cycle correction. My arguments for this are that this cycle is too short to be completed. At the very least we "should" have another 8-14 months for the current cycle. Furthermore, the top of the cycle is not even close where it should be, compared to previous cycles. Looking at the blue trend-line, the top of the cycle should be somewhere from 100k-150k (rough estimate). To conclude, I'm confident that Bitcoin will see another strong bullish push. The current cycle is far from over. Happy trading!
BNC:BLXLong
by FieryTrading
45