REVEALING BITCOIN HALVING-CYCLES - 120.000 USD AFTER NEXT ONE?! _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hello traders investors and community. There is an interesting observation which i made and want to share with you today. It is revealing the magic bitcoin
halving-cycle in which we seen huge growing of price after the past halvings.
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The last weeks we are facing a consolidation period, exactly what we have seen in the past before halving break-outs happened. Before the first halving and
break-out BTCUSD consolidated between 2 and 15 USD, after the halving we have seen an enormous growth of 90.52 X before the first major top formed.
The same happened after the second halving, in this case BTCUSD made28.74 X after a longer consolidation period in which price consolidated between
160 - 700 USD.
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In my chart you can see the red boxes which show the consolidation periods before BTCUSD broke out and entered the growth phase (green-boxes), exactly
after the halving!
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I am expecting the consolidation period in which we are trading now to hold on until the halving or beyond, after this we will face the next big
bitcoin-halving growth period of BTCUSD.
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Consider this: We made 90.52 times price-growth after the first and 28.74 after the second halving.
Now this gives an average of 59.63 X.
Just when we underbeat this mark and make 10 times more after the next halving that would be 100.000 - 120.000 USD.
Looking on the information i am expecting a similar growth-period for BTCUSD like the one seen after the first halving.
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Okay hopefully everybody enjoyed! May all luck and happiness come to you! For more market insight feel free to support!
The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be used to take action in markets.
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Bitcoin-cycle
Where we are now in the 2014/15 comparison So far, this bearmarket is remarkably similar to the 2014/15 one. So much so, that I often think: This can't be, this is too predictable.
Ok, sure, the exact behavior is different, spikes and dumps occur not exactly at the same times and the fractal looks a bit different. But the general behaviour is the same:
1. Slow grind down along an exponential falling resistance line (linear falling in log chart, the red line)
2. Unable to push through daily MA200 => dumps when failing to push through
3. Short pump spikes followed by long grinds down
This makes me think that we'll continue to see new lows like in 2014/15 until mid 2019, when the people will start talking about the good old halving again, which will
take place in mid 2020. Surely this will again generate hype, leading to a slow rise, leading to the start of the next bull cycle when the halving really kicks in, and good news will start taking effect,
like potential ETF, lightning network, positive regulations etc.
Short term short, longterm always long on BTC :)
Learn how Bitcoin Cycles Work.Hey, I am back with another Chart, but this time with something more educational .
Last time I was saying, that you should Ride with the wave, go with flow.
Many of you has asked my how can I predict this market, if we are currently bearish or bullish, how to follow trends..
Yeah, this Chart looks kinda complicated and messy but again, I think cycles arent that simple and tried to draw this to be clear and understable as possible.
First of all, what is a cycle?
Cycle in simple.
Cycle is a time period in where buyers/sellers are in dominance.
It ussualy last around one month.
On the chart, you can see 5 Cycles, 3 Bearish 2 Bullish.
6500 level as strong support.
There is a crossing Line that Indicates the start of each cycle.
Green line that Indicates the 6 th day in month.
Why is there a line that Indicates 6 th day in a month?
Notice how on the green there is long. somehow trend changing candle .
That may be the exact day of cycle start or end, change of trend.
Okay, next thing to look at - RSI.
Whenever Bitcoin is over 60 t hat is consider as bullish level, anything below 40 is ocnsider as bearish .
Simple and clear isnt it?
Look at Bitcoin each time we are in Bull cycle it always bounces of that 40 bearish level, and each time we are Bear cycle Bitcoin fails to break 60 bullish level
I hope I have make your mind about Cycles kind of clearer, if you have any questions, make sure to ask me bellow or at my Discord Channel.
If you like this Educational material let me know in the comments below or by just simple agreeing with me, Thanks !
Possible tops of this BTC cycleThis one is pretty self-explanatory.
I drew the logarithmic trend channel, and drew a repeat of the 2013 cycle.
If such a thing were to occur, the new target estimates are 50K for the first top, end of december/ beginning of january.
Then bouncing between 10K and 30K for a few months like in summer 2013.
Then the end of this hype cycle at 100-200K.
Then a pretty brutal bearmarket like in 2014 and 2015.
Then the start of the next hype cycle after the halving 2020.
Plenty of Downside Potential (Price and RSI cycles) After a new low at the end of bear cycle, market corrects in 2 waves to 61.8% from the previous bearish cycle. The bearish cycle in this chart begins after 3 requirements are fullfilled:
1. Break the bullish trendline of the correction from previous bear cycle
2. Break down the last month's daily EMA so that it becomes resistance
3. RSI breaks solidly the 40 level
In order for these requirements to be fullfilled, it can take more or less time, like it is highlighted in the elipses and it can be seen as an inflexion zone between the cycles.
We are now in the first leg down in the new bearish cycle and based on previous price action a couple of new legs can still be expected. We can notice in the past that the break of 40 RSI level never comes alone.
This chart can be watched together with the previous similar published chart:
All in all, it seems like we are still in a danger zone for prospective longs or BTC purchases, perhaps it would be wise to wait to see how it develops or wait for a breakout above 240s for the bulls waiting to buy or add another btcs to their holdings.
Thank you for the time reading and watching this published idea and good luck to you all!