GOOD BTC ENTRY !! SL 59K TP 72KREASONS WHY !!
Market Sentiment and Momentum:
Bitcoin soared in 2023, and experts predict further gains in 2024, potentially reaching $80,000.
Despite long-term optimism, Bitcoin experienced a recent dip.
Technical indicators suggest potential downside, but the market remains in a tug-of-war.
If buyers can push past the $44,700 resistance, a jump to $48,000 is in sight.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch:
The launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024 is poised to revolutionize the crypto landscape.
This move is expected to attract significant capital from both retail and institutional investors, further fueling Bitcoin’s ascent.
Bitcoin Halving Event:
Scheduled for April or May 2024, the Bitcoin halving event will curtail the yearly supply of new Bitcoin.
This reduction in supply could establish conditions where demand potentially outstrips supply, a fundamental factor in the optimistic price forecast.
Investor Confidence and Accumulation:
Investors are holding on to their BTC with conviction stronger than in 2021.
Relative realized profits show that despite a new all-time high, selling has not been as significant as during the previous cycle.
Consistent accumulation since February 2024 indicates confidence among investors, expecting further price growth.
Bitcoin-etf
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin stabilize above $100,000?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its ascending channel. Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement. We will look for bitcoin selling positions in the range of the channel ceiling (weekly).
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. The break of the charted channel will pave the way down for Bitcoin. Bitcoin buying positions can be looked for in the two specified demand zones.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important.
Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy and a prominent Bitcoin advocate, is set to present a Bitcoin investment strategy to Microsoft’s board of directors next month. On November 19, Saylor announced that he would have three minutes to outline the investment plan to the board.
This development follows Saylor’s headline-making proposal last month, where he offered to help Microsoft generate $1 trillion in revenue through a Bitcoin-based treasury strategy. In an October post on X, Saylor urged Satya Nadella to reach out if he wanted to secure the next trillion dollars for Microsoft’s shareholders.
The proposal came after reports that Microsoft shareholders would vote on a proposal to consider Bitcoin as a reserve asset. However, the board of directors blocked the proposal. Nevertheless, market observers noted that major shareholders like Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street, and Fidelity will play a critical role in the company’s final decision.
With $78 billion in cash reserves, Microsoft has made significant investments in companies such as Skype and OpenAI but has yet to allocate any funds to Bitcoin or related assets. Saylor argues that this approach is short-sighted and urges tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Google to consider Bitcoin as a superior alternative to cash reserves. According to Saylor, if Apple had invested $100 billion in Bitcoin, it could have grown to $500 billion, and the company would now have a $500 billion business growing at 20% annually.
Last week, altcoin trading volumes surpassed $300 billion for the first time since 2021.
Meanwhile, lawmakers in Pennsylvania have introduced a bill in the state’s House of Representatives that would allow the state treasury to allocate up to 10% of its funds to Bitcoin. If passed, the law would enable the Pennsylvania Treasurer to invest part of the state’s $9.7 billion general fund and its nearly $7 billion “rainy day” fund in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin itself has surged past $99,000, marking its largest monthly candle in several years. So far, the cryptocurrency has recorded a 40.67% monthly gain.
Donald Trump, the president-elect, has nominated Scott Bessent, a prominent hedge fund manager and cryptocurrency advocate, as the next Treasury Secretary. Bessent, founder of Key Square Group, is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping Trump’s economic policies and has supported the president-elect’s plan to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Bessent’s nomination will require Senate confirmation. If approved, he will oversee the administration’s economic agenda, including tax reforms and cryptocurrency-related policies. His extensive experience in finance and investment is expected to influence the Treasury Department’s approach to emerging financial technologies.
Google searches for Bitcoin have reached their highest level in a year.
Meanwhile, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming told CNBC, “The proposal I’ve put forward, and one that President Trump has discussed, involves creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve.” She added, “This digital asset acts like a gold standard, and a strategic Bitcoin reserve is a way to integrate it into our system.”
She explained that the Federal Reserve’s 12 banks currently hold reserves that include gold certificates, which can be revalued at fair market value. Senator Lummis proposed converting these gold reserves to Bitcoin, thereby eliminating the need to print new dollars to establish this reserve.
Bitcoin - American elections, future fluctuations of Bitcoin!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its ascending channel
Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way down for Bitcoin, which can be used to look for Bitcoin buying positions in the two specified demand zones
As long as Bitcoin is within the specified range, you can look for buy and sell positions at the top and bottom of the range
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
BTCUSD - Bitcoin's good performance will continue in September?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel
Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds has led to its continued upward movement, and you can look for Bitcoin sales positions within the specified supply zone
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way down for Bitcoin, which can be sought for Bitcoin buying positions within the defined demand zone
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
Bitcoin - Where will Bitcoin go after the interest rate cut?Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading above the $60,000 level
Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETFs has led to its continued upward movement, and you can look for Bitcoin buying opportunities by maintaining the drawn upward trend line and not breaking it
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk Off Sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Selling will be justified after a valid break of the specified support area
Bitcoin - Bitcoin reached 60K$!Bitcoin is located between the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its descending channel
Risk On sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETFs has led to its continued upward movement, and you can look for buying positions after Bitcoin corrects to the specified demand zone
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk Off sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way for Bitcoin to decline. Sales from the specified supply zone will be rewarded with appropriate risk
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
Bitcion - buy positions!Bitcoin is located between the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its descending channel
Bitcoin moved in the direction of its bullish analysis of the previous day and reached the target
Risk on sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETFs has led to the continuation of the upward movement and it is possible to look for positions to buy it from the demand zones
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
Bitcoin - Will the rise of Bitcoin continue?!Bitcoin is above EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel
The current price range will be very important in terms of determining the future direction of Bitcoin
In case of risk off in the US stock market or capital withdrawal from Bitcoin ETFs today, after the bottom of the ascending channel breaks, we can see a downward trend
In case of continued risk on in the US stock market or the entry of capital into ETFs, the path of climbing to the supply zone will be paved, and we will look for bitcoin sales positions in the supply zone
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Is Forming An Intraday Bullish SetupIf we take a look at the hourly chart of BlackRock Bitcoin ETF with ticker IBIT, we can see nice and clean five-wave intraday rally from the lows, followed by an a-b-c corrective setback with first support at 32 area, while second deeper one would be around 31 area. So, seems like it's forming a nice intraday bullish setup formation, thus watch out on a bullish continuation, while it's above 28 invalidation level, just keep in mind that bulls may step in above 34.15 level.
08/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $63,884.22
Last weeks low: $53,536.87
Midpoint: 58,710.54
A continuation of BTC selling off has lead to a loss of nearly $10,000 from Bitcoins price from high to low. This sell off is mostly propelled by large selling pressure caused by the German Government selling, however they still have $2.2B of BTC to sell and Mt.Gox begin repayments of stolen funds from 2014 causing increased selling pressure.
From a TA standpoint BTC is still LTF bearish, but the interesting part is the HTF's as BTC is retesting the 1D 200EMA as resistance since breaking below it last week. In a Bullrun you really don't want to see too much time spent under the 1D 200EMA, it should really act as strong support and a place to add to LONG positions.
This week I would like to see the Bullish OB+ @ $52,000 tagged before making a judgment on where BTC is going next. It's a strong support area that will attract price too it, TA says this is a good area to go LONG but this is definitely not a blind bid environment. It also happens to be a 30% drop from ATH which has been a common Bullrun correction in the past.
This week my focus is on the ETH ETF updates, the S-1 forms rumoured to be due tomorrow, then it's down tot the SEC to turn them around. ETH is around $3000 with sentiment at yearly lows, definitely an opportunity there.
Also the BTC1D 200EMA is a point of contention and an important S/R level.
Chainlink Giant Rising Wedge formed.Rising wedge target is back to top of chainlink accumulation range at 9.3.
Clear rising wedge pattern with two touch points top and bottom.
We are coming up to the Chainlink fib sequence I have been using for years it has a 100% win rate at predicting Chainlink events , major moves , bottoms or tops.
Last Fib time hit was the Big move down in May 2022 marked a major bottom for LINK. Next one is April 22nd 2024 and anything can happen for LINK around this time , its interesting also that it lines up with the Bitcoin halving.
LINK/BTC
Link has failed to break this level time and time again and until this level is broken I don't think we will see a major move for LINK.
It is possible that coming in 22nd of April we get a big move down for on LINK/BTC to test the 1/1 Gann fan again, yellow circle you see on the chart.
If thats the case then expect a major move down the fact that we are forming such a massive rising wedge with only 60 days from the next count is telling.
I also get a two different Fib time dates on 22nd April the one use see above is completely different start and end points yet the 618 falls on the same date.
Maybe LINK breaks the resistance on this date and moons or maybe it crashes and bottoms , who knows! all i know is that the next date after Aprill 2024 is May 2027 so best be ready for anything .
GPT 🐕💥 DOGE's Wedge Edge: Correction on the Horizon? 📉🔮The current price of Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) is $0.1927. 💲
Analyzing the daily chart, Dogecoin is forming a rising wedge pattern 📈, which is often considered a bearish chart pattern 📉. This pattern suggests that while the price is currently trending upward, a potential reversal and downward correction might be on the horizon 🔮. The convergence of the trend lines indicates that volatility is decreasing and a breakout is typically expected 💥.
Given the current market sentiment and the technical pattern observed, a conservative approach would suggest a potential correction to the nearest Fibonacci retracement level, which might serve as a support 🛑. Based on the chart, if a bearish reversal from the wedge occurs, the price may correct towards the 0.236 Fibonacci level at approximately $0.12253 or potentially lower, depending on the strength of the breakout and market dynamics 📊.
It's crucial to watch for a definitive breakout from the wedge to confirm this potential move 🔍. Keep in mind that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and external factors can greatly influence price movements 🌪️.
Remember, this is not financial advice but a technical analysis based on the current chart patterns 🧠.
WILL BTC RETURN FOR THE 3rd TIME BACKBTC shows historical 2 backgrounds return around these zones.
Is BTC going to return for time 3?
the most wait for the ATH, but it's possible that the trend can play before.
ATH = psychologicaltarget.
Is there a possibility that ATH can come?
Yes, its possible, but same time also a high risk.
We will follow the trend for confirmations.
What does the arrival of Spot Bitcoin ETFs mean for US investorsAfter a long journey, the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were approved in the United States of America. This is the latest step on the path to bitcoin, and digital assets more generally, becoming mainstream. To help clarify how this chain of events unfolded, and where the story could go next, this is an edited summary of a discussion with Ryan Louvar, Chief Legal Officer at WisdomTree, which took place in full on the Crypto Clarified podcast1.
The main points covered were:
The main obstacles that had to be overcome for approval
The reasons why a spot bitcoin ETF is a positive for investors and digital assets’ place in a portfolio as a diversifier
What to expect in terms of uptake over different timeframes
What to expect in the near future as the asset class becomes more mainstream
Benjamin Dean (BD): Ryan, happy bitcoin spot ETF effective date to you.
Ryan Louvar (RL): It’s a super exciting day. Even going back six months ago, I can’t say I was on the optimist side. But seeing the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) grant an effective registration statement to allow bitcoin ETFs, as well as the listings, is great.
Obstacles to overcome
BD: What were those final obstacles that had to be overcome and how have almost a dozen different issuers had their applications approved and become effective?
RL: I was on a panel at Bitcoin 2021 with a couple of other ETF issuers. We were asked to predict if we thought that 2021 would be the year. There was some optimism because the new chairman of the SEC, Gary Gensler, had spoken at MIT about this topic. However, there were hurdles before through that prior SEC administration. I said that there was a decent chance 2021 would be the year. But we have a new SEC administration now, and the similar denials continued. The rationale was that there just aren’t enough protective mechanisms in place to create a market that would be resistant to fraud and manipulation. Ultimately, the focus was on the spot bitcoin market, and the SEC said there needs to be a regulated spot bitcoin market of sufficient size to be able to trade. This was really against historical precedent because if you think about other spot markets like gold in particular, those ETFs had been approved and there isn’t a regulated gold market, certainly not one overseen by the SEC, and not one as had been described by the SEC as a requirement.
A watershed moment occurred when the SEC allowed futures ETFs, including bitcoin futures ETFs. They allowed a percentage of the underlying exposure to be futures and then allowed 100% futures exposure. Even at that point, WisdomTree was the first ETF to have any bitcoin futures exposure, with under 5% in one of our US-listed ETFs. The thought was that we were right there, almost at the finish line to then have a spot ETF. We chose at the time to have limited exposure because we thought that it had the potential to be a diversifier in a portfolio.
We chose not to launch a 100% bitcoin futures product just because of the potential issues in a 100% bitcoin futures product, such as contango and not tracking the price of bitcoin. We were very steadfast in our belief that a spot bitcoin product was the best execution for investors seeking exposure to the spot price of bitcoin. We leveraged our experience in Europe where we have a successful crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) range including a spot bitcoin ETP. There was really no action from the SEC until they got sued by Grayscale. There was a lawsuit from Grayscale, and they said that the SEC’s decision here, the denials, were just arbitrary and capricious. A court agreed with them.
It’s not often that the SEC loses. The court made it possible for the SEC to essentially include additional information for their decision. Based upon the past ten years, I thought that the SEC would continue to deny an approval and produce additional reasons for it. Ultimately, they had until 10 January to make that decision. Going back just three months ago, it wasn’t clear what path the SEC was going to take. It only became clear once the SEC started to comment on the prospectuses after a few years of silence, that cleared the way for progress. Then you saw ETF issuers filing updated S-1 type of registration statements that include the prospectus. This was really a couple of months ago.
Then you saw a flurry of activity from the regulatory side, updated prospectuses every couple of weeks, then updated prospectuses every couple of days, to now, we are launching this morning. Yes, that’s the history, it’s hard to believe. It’s really been truly historic. I mean, just the historical, call it a roller coaster ride.
Today we’re excited to be an issuer launching a spot bitcoin ETF, but it’s also historic to have all the other issuers launching as well. Our experience in ETFs both in Europe and digital assets is going to be a differentiator for us. It will be an interesting few months for sure.
Role in a portfolio as a potential diversifier
BD: Do you have any views or thoughts around how one should conceive the coming days, months, and years? What does success look like?
RL: If we look back on the birth of the US ETF industry with the SPDR, it took a couple of years for the SPDR to really take off and gain traction. Now it’s over 20 years old, and I think it’s over $300 billion at this point. I think we’ll see the same with bitcoin, in taking time to fully gain traction. Going back a couple of years, financial advisors told us they have clients who’d like to have at least a portion of their portfolio in an asset that can serve as a diversifier. It’s got to be the right client as bitcoin is a volatile asset, so there’s risk there.
Bitcoin can certainly serve its place in the right client’s portfolio. Those advisors will now be trying to work with their clients to understand the full financial picture. Their client might say, “By the way, I have bitcoin as well and it’s sitting in my personal wallets or on this third-party platform or wherever.” So, really, by having the vehicle that's suited to many investors in the ETF, it will really help from a financial advisory standpoint as well as a general investor standpoint to have that access.
The other thing is the transparency. ETFs have to disclose their holdings, so the amount of bitcoin a spot ETF holds will be available on the issuer website every day. Holding bitcoin in your own wallet can have some merit for a lot of people, but many don’t understand that mechanism or don’t want to. An ETF is a wrapper they do understand, and it comes with traditional third-party oversight from a trusted organisation like WisdomTree. It’s bringing a lot to the table but like any new asset, I think it’s going to take time for the marketplace to really absorb it. Certainly, a lot of the traditional ETF platforms are going to have to conduct diligence. A lot of that requires some track record, six months in some cases for some assets.
I think there will be demand, but it’s a journey. Today’s just the beginning. It’s not dissimilar to a floating rate Treasury ETF. Treasuries are renowned for being plain vanilla, but that took a little while to gain a bit of traction. Bitcoin is a very different asset to treasuries in terms of risk profile, but it can potentially have its place.
What could uptake look like in the near term?
BD: It’s an interesting moment in the United States because the couple of years really, have been negative and so acrimonious. You go to Asia or Latin America and people don’t have the same hangups. But in the US, it has been different.
RL: I was surprised when I travelled to many Asian countries over the summer and saw that bitcoin is widely available and used as a currency. Here in the US, being US-centric, we sometimes lose that perspective. We’re getting used to inflation in the US but not hyperinflation. So, it’s a great point that we don’t see in the US much, so it surprised me during my travels abroad.
Where does the digital asset industry go from here
BD: Looking at the US, what does this round of approvals mean for the digital asset industry? What do you see coming forward?
RL: I think the next turning point is Ether, the second largest cryptocurrency. There are now ETFs that hold Ethereum futures. So, if you think about the history, ETFs were first allowed by the SEC to hold bitcoin futures and then some months later, Ether futures. I do think those will be the next that might get attention.
To me, the biggest thing is that bitcoin and digital assets more broadly are being talked about as investable assets. For us at WisdomTree it’s important because we’re not only focused on ETFs, which has been our historical focus, we’re also bringing a direct-to-retail platform to investors in the US. Right now, they can directly access bitcoin via an app on their phone. They can directly access Ether, SEC-registered blockchain-enabled mutual funds and work with those in one portfolio.
So, I think having these avenues and bringing more attention to the asset class is only going to put a spotlight on how investors might be able to think about this new asset class and bitcoin in particular.
Sources
1 open.spotify.com
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
$BTC trying to find footingCRYPTOCAP:BTC will likely see 1 more dip before it resumes it's uptrend, WHY?
There is still a decent amount of bullishness out there.
HOWEVER, if #Bitcoin can do the following:
RSI hold above halfway point
$ Flow gets better, which coincides with...
Buy volume increasing
Then the drop will likely not be harsh & we could have seen the bottom,
The ETF AftermathIt has been 1 year almost to the day since my last publication and what a 12 months it has been. I previously laid out the case for a pending future recession but not before we saw massive regular bullish divergence play out on the monthly time frame for Bitcoin.
Since then we've seen a 187% move in BTC, a 25% move in the S&P 500 and every commentator, pundit and analyst confident that a recession has been avoided and a soft landing inevitable.
I'm here now telling you that I believe it to be no coincidence that the previous fundamental legacy events of which bitcoin has experienced in its past, once in Dec 2017 and the other in April 2021 has resulted in massive price corrections of 83 and 53% respectively within days of the CME and IPO announcements. Albeit the likelihood of such massive corrections are lesser given where we are in the macro cycle I do believe a sizable correction will occur days following this announcement.
What is of significant interest on the chart is the previous macro fibonacci extensions of the precious 2 cycles. That being a confluent correction at the 0.5 fib level and seeing a 40% and 72% correction there after. A 0.5 extension in this current cycle would suggest a monthly wick above $48500 followed by again a sizable correction.
To pontificate as to the extent of this correction I pose the following possibilities.
-A 30% drawdown to the 200 SMA, a support level which has served Bitcoin well historically
-A 40% drawdown to the 6 and a half year support line of macro lows.
-Or an unthinkable 70% correction somewhere around the previous bear market low, 2017 bull market high and the resistance held in July 2019 and Aug 2020.
For this to take place we need to consider some very worst case scenarios and evaluate the current macro/geopolitical landscape.
-Escalation of war in Russian Ukraine.
-Escalation of war in Israel Palestine.
-Military development of China's desire to remove Taiwan's international independence.
-The largest inversion of the 10 year 2 year yield curve in 40 years.
-The largest contraction of US M2 money supply since the great depression.
-A continuation of what is already a 50% crash in China's real estate market.
-A UK real estate crisis once affordability ceases as mortgages need rolling over after a 10,000% increase in interest rates.
-A US real estate crisis as 11 monthly falsified unemployment data is realised
-The energy and manufacturing crisis in europe compounded by the highest debt to GDP ratio in its history
-A Hollywood presidential election between a criminal and a dementia patient.
My point is the macro landscape is looking unpredictable and the TA has much confluence.
This feels very much like it did in the beginning of 2020 just before the un-inversion of the yield curve and the then pending recession. It's almost like something globally needs to be orchestrated in order to create an excuse to lower rates and roll the debt over for another 4 years!!
Who knows it might even be a cyber attack and CBDC implementation ;-)
Either way Bitcoin will still be doing its thing.
Keep yourself and those satoshi's safe.
Short Squeeze Potential MARA ? heavily shorted stock $MARA. weekly time frame we have a head and shoulders and we just broke the neckline now coming back in to test it, the big IF is if it can now hold as support. lost momentum from the profit taking and sell the news plus going into 3 day weekend. we had a promising break (if you caught that move to 32, nice one) Esp off all the Bitcoin ETF news and now we have the sell the news profit taking etc right back to the break out. which was clear resistance multiple times if you look left. idk. its something I'll at least watch. any crypto news or catalyst can put this back in play. it really really needs to hold this area especially over 15 but i really don't want it to go past 17.50-18. but yeah, that's my thoughts something to watch, feels like its kinda late to the party and the move was made but the amount of shorts in this is interesting. id target 32. for hypothetical purpose past that it can get parabolic. 32 was about the measured move from the head and shoulders although this is log chart. also currently resting on the 9ema. im not 'thrilled' for this. just something to keep watch on. and i also want to post this so i can view it later.
Cheers! 3 day weekend. try to enjoy it. lol
Will Bitcoin Make History?This post is more of documentation of the historical moment that the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin has experienced today with the passing of Bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC. It was a long awaited event and it has finally happened. But what other major events are happening in the chart right now that also might be historical?
Well for one, we can see that BTC has retraced 61% of the way from its low around $15.5K to its all-time-high of $69k. The momentum Bitcoin has seen in the last 12 plus months has been fantastic from a bullish standpoint, but traditional technical analysis - based on Fibonacci - signals that the price of Bitcoin is officially in deep retracement levels, which makes longing the asset at this particular moment very high risk from a trader's perspective. Keep in mind that we are also a few months away from the Bitcoin Halving event as well, which historically has signaled the optimum buying window for the cryptocurrency. If BTC can maintain its support within the year-long rising channel (bearish), there is no reason to assume that an end to the trend is in site. On the contrary, if support begins to breakdown, there are plenty technical reasons for a correction in price to occur, that could send the price back to levels witnessed during the summer.
In the meantime, congrats Bitcoin! Perhaps its moment on the world stage as a legit and respected asset class has finally arrived.
Bitcoin ETFs coming soon: what could happen?Hello, folks! If this is your first time reading one of my ideas, welcome, hope you enjoy it. If you are a regular visitor of my ideas, thank you!
Let's discuss the fuss around Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). With 8 Bitcoin ETFs awaiting regulatory approval, decisions are anticipated between January and March 2024, let's consider how this could shake up Bitcoin's price, the wider crypto market, investor confidence, and the overall financial scene.
🧙🏽♂️ Spot ETFs: A Direct Link to Bitcoin's Supply
SPOT ETFs are unique because they require the actual holding of Bitcoin by the fund. In an environment where Bitcoin's availability on exchanges is at an all-time low, these ETFs could significantly influence the market's supply-demand dynamics.
The approval of SPOT ETFs is likely to ramp up demand significantly. Given Bitcoin's capped supply, this increased demand could lead to substantial price surges, potentially setting new all-time highs.
🧙🏽♂️ Investor Sentiment: A Confidence Boost
For investors, SPOT ETFs represent a more secure, regulated path to Bitcoin investment. This could draw in a fresh wave of investment, both from retail and (more importantly) institutional sectors, think pension funds for example. This could potentially result in elevating Bitcoin's price and market stability in a way never seen before.
🧙🏽♂️ The Financial Landscape: Embracing Digital Currencies
On a larger scale, SPOT ETFs indicate a significant stride in incorporating cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance. This move could spark further innovation and adoption of digital currencies in diverse financial services. While some banks are now known to block transactions related to crypto, or even entire accounts, it's not unimaginable that they will start offering crypto services themselves. An approval of several ETFs would incorporate crypto into Wall Street.
🧙🏽♂️ The First-Mover Scenario: A Case for Simultaneous Approval
In the realm of these ETF applications, the potential for a first-mover advantage looms large. Here's a breakdown of the key players and their decision dates:
Ark/21 Shares Bitcoin Trust: 1/10/24
Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust: 3/15/24
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Trust: 3/16/24
VanEck Bitcoin Trust: 3/16/24
WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust: 3/16/24
Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund: 3/16/24
Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF: 3/16/24
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust: 3/16/24
If one of these ETFs gets approval ahead of the others, it could dominate investor interest. To avoid this and foster a healthier, more competitive market, regulators might consider approving multiple ETFs simultaneously, ensuring no single fund unfairly corners the market. This means that we might see approval of several ETFs in January 2024, less than 2 months from now!
🧙🏽♂️ Conclusion: A Turning Point for Crypto?
The potential approval of Bitcoin SPOT ETFs marks a pivotal moment in the crypto narrative. It's a validation of Bitcoin's growing influence and a beacon for a more inclusive crypto market. For the crypto community, it's a period of pride and anticipation; for cautious investors, a new pathway into the crypto realm; and for the financial world, a step toward embracing the digital currency era.
Let's eagerly watch together how this story unfolds. Here's to the dynamic and ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies! 🥂🚀🌕
❓ Questions for you:
What do you think will happen?
Do you expect one or more ETFs to be approved in January?
What do you think will be the effect on price of that happening?
How will you trade/invest based on your expectations?
Leave your answers to these questions in the comments below.
Oh, and if you enjoyed reading this, like/boost, follow and shares are highly appreciated!
Bitcoin sending mixed signals but trend has been strongCRYPTOCAP:BTC has hit the 1st 24 target.
Volume has been a little mixed lately. Was more buying leading up to the last few days.
#BTC RSI & $ Flow indicators are diverging.
RSI holding 50 but going lower (middle).
$ Flow above 0 going higher (middle).
Weekly
#Bitcoin trend has been strong.
It has been overbought since October.
Monthly
Not overbought, that's RARE when it does happen.
More on this another day.