Bitcoin-gold
NZD/USD LONG possibilityHello there traders!
As always we provide you with analysis on tradingview.
Currently we are looking at the NZD/USD where we had a nice impuls and corrective move.
Structure tested supply zone and created a reversed H&S .
Bullish pressure pushes the market up and after the retest of the right shoulder we should see NZD/USD take its flight to the moon.
We also have seen the counter-trendline break wich indicates we are bullish .
Last but not least we see the market create H&S and a rejection of the retest.
This means we are satisfied and ready to take the trade.
Have a good week!
S&p 500, expiration of options and drop 😱❓Dips in the S&P 500 of 2-3% occur every month around this time, due to the expiry of options. In August, S&P 500 options expire this Friday.
In addition, the price has broken through the trend line on the chart and could test it soon. On top of that, this is the fourth similar pattern. In all previous cases, the price corrected by 2% after breaking through and retesting the trend line.
It is the same situation now + the options expiration, there is a high probability of a 2% correction now.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
EUR/CAD LONG (DAYTRADING!!)Hello there traders!
As always we provide you with analysis on tradingview.
Currently we are looking at the EUR/CAD where we had a nice impuls and corrective move.
Structure tested supply zone and created a reversed H&S .
Bullish pressure pushes the market up and after the retest of the right shoulder we should see EUR/CAD take its flight to the moon.
We also have seen the counter-trendline break wich indicates we are bullish .
Last but not least we see the market create H&S and a rejection of the retest.
This means we are satisfied and ready to take the trade.
Have a good week!
GBP/JPY Short possibility - Allready validHello there traders!
As always we provide you with analysis on tradingview.
Currently we are looking at the pair GBP/JPY where we had a nice impuls and corrective move.
Structure kept on breaking above and now made a lower low/high.
Bearish pressure is allready pushing market-price down.
We also have seen the counter-trendline break wich indicates we are bearish.
Last but not least we see the market create a potential H&S wich also indicates the bears are ready.
So now we wait for our indicators to give us a valid entry and when all rules are satisfied we take the trade.
Have a good week!
$BTCUSD: is this like gold after 2011?Are laser eyes/single issue voters/NFT owners/shitcoin bagholders the new Goldbugs?
Maybe they are, if so this would be the kind of move to expect here...
I'm mostly bearish due to sentiment and various fundamental factors as well as technical elements that make me think the long term trend is over.
I will monitor action, but I suspect it will act similarly to this, probably best to not short as you make less money than going long after down swings bottom out temporarily, but over time this will get hard to trade even on the long side. Short term traders likely will be able to navigate the murky waters easier than people expecting big one directional moves up or down. My preference is to not trade until a really solid long term capitulation and bottom forms. I would be ok with trading 1h trend signals using automation if anything, or daily reversals for quick swings for a couple days or weeks tops, but need to be very selective. Buy and hodl or short and hodl won't work.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Bitcoin & Gold Comparison (Fractal)As I was searching for fractals/similar market structures as bitcoin is showing right now I came across this gold chart from the 1970's.
Now when you take a look at this chart there are a lot of similarities.
1. You can see the first top which later on becomes the support area in both charts.
2. Then we see the market creating a top and failing to make a higher high on both charts.
3. On both charts we can see the market sell off after being unable to create a higher high.
4. We then find support on the area where the first top was created.
Now I'm not saying BTC will do the same, but you have to admit this all looks very similar.
On top of this you can see a very similar RSI structure and Ichimoku Cloud structure.
After gold had found its support it went on with an even bigger rally, eventually setting in a real top for that bull cycle. You can see this on the gold chart if you zoom out.
Now if Bitcoin will follow this fractal I believe we will see 100k+ prices within the next few months.
GOLD SAYS SUB 20K BTC!!!!gold and BTC have been trading in extremely similar shapes and they always correlate as they are both inflation hedges
and the resemblance is scary and gold has lost the consolidation to the left and fell heavily and I believe BTC will do the same and they reclaimed stong. this tells me that BTC needs another large dump too low 20s high teens then accumulation before a large expansion back to at least 40k my
Trading - Expectations VS RealityHey Traders,
In this post we will aim to clear some of common misconceptions of trading and how we can help you go further in your trading career by giving you all the tools you need to better understand the market and kill the game.
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1. Trading is easy.
Trading is relatively easy IF you know the rules of the market and use certain analytical techniques. Once you have a full arsenal of technical tools, you can easily understand the market and figure out where it may go next.
2. Market moves in one direction.
That can be true to a certain extent where we have trending markets. However, within that trend there are various types of pullbacks. Once you understand the different market phases, you can make money whether it's a trending or ranging market. Opportunities are endless!
3. Buy when low. Sell when high.
If only things were that straight forward, right? Sometimes the lows aren't really the lows and the highs push higher and higher. This is when you need to understand the different patterns and structure of the market to help you figure out where the best possible place is to buy or sell.
Once we understand the market, we need a trading plan. How do we enter? Where do we enter? Where is the stop loss? This is where having rigid checklist really helps! You can tick things off the list and grade the trade setup from good to bad and then enter accordingly using various entry methods.
It may sound like a lot of but once broken down into little bits, you can learn this EASILY and know exactly how to analyse and enter trades!
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What we will be covering:
- Market structure: Impulse & Corrections
- Using Index charts to correlate your trades (Very important Topic!)
- Drawing a trendline and levels correctly – There’s a hack to it!
- Using Moving Averages Correctly
- Combining higher timeframe & lower timeframe
- Different patterns and how to trade them
- More topics to come!
Comment below on what other topics you would like to see!
I hope this post help clarify some of the misconceptions of trading and the different elements involved.
See the links below for information on how we can help you!
BTCUSD, Interesting Day Trading Setup The market appears to have formed an inverted head and shoulders setup, which presents a potential upside movement.
We have a broken out resistance above 34k, and price is likely to retest a previous resistance ~ current support, before presenting further confirmations for upside movements.
All in and all looking pleasant for an upside movements towards 35k.
Bitcoin's Relationship with GoldHello everyone!
This post will explore Bitcoin’s relationship with gold and how we can extract trading signals from it.
The idea behind this is based on a research paper published about lumber’s relationship with gold: papers.ssrn.com . The paper seeks to build a model that will accurately foretell future economic conditions and inflationary expectations using two functionally opposite commodities: lumber and gold.
Housing is the lifeblood of the economy. Housing prices are sensitive to lumber prices. Lumber, therefore, provides an accurate barometer for risk around the economy. As lumber rises, investors are confident in the current economic landscape, as they believe in growth.
On the other hand, gold is considered a safe haven, so investors flock to this commodity once they become wary of current economic conditions or expect inflation to rise.
Increasing lumber prices relative to gold signal investor confidence and economic growth. Increasing gold prices relative to lumber indicate investor fear or caution.
Bitcoin and Gold:
A similar relationship can be drawn between Bitcoin and gold. Over the past decade of Bitcoin’s development, Bitcoin’s scarcity and difficulty to create mimic gold, which has led to it being called “digital gold.”
Bitcoin and gold can therefore both be grouped in the same category as safe havens that protect against inflation. However, of the two, Bitcoin is obviously the riskier asset because it is much more volatile and sensitive to external news.
Drawing a parallel to the lumber/gold relationship, a rise in Bitcoin relative to gold indicates rising investor risk appetite, while the opposite occurs with gold’s rise relative to Bitcoin. The next chapter will attempt to create a trading signal from this rate of change.
The signal:
Bitcoin is the best performing asset of all time, so simply plotting it against gold will yield a graph with continuous upwards momentum. However, instead of plotting it directly, the rate of change of this graph can instead be measured. With this relationship, Bitcoin’s rising rate of change relative to gold indicates belief in its upward momentum. In contrast, a negative rate of change would suggest that investors believe that Bitcoin’s run is possibly over and are rotating to safer assets such as gold.
To draw a relationship with this, I built this Bitcoin vs Gold chart with a Weekly 9-period Rate of Change Indicator.
The signal for this indicator is the following:
1. Buy once the ROC crosses above 100
2. Sell once the ROC crosses below the zero line
The chart demonstrates that utilizing this method predicted the long-term and intermediate tops pretty accurately, including this one.
The following list details the returns obtained when using this strategy since 2013:
February 11, 2013 – June 3, 2013: 401%
November 4, 2013 – January 20, 2014: 294%
May 22, 2017 – January 22, 2018: 481%
May 13, 2019 – July 22, 2019: 29%
December 21, 2020 – April 19, 2021: 145%
Total return: 362 times the initial investment! (Assuming total reinvestment)
As can be seen, this strategy has consistently demonstrated gargantuan gains while never having a negative signal since its inception.
2021 Bitcoin Bear Market:
We crossed to the downside on April 19, 2021 when Bitcoin was at 56k. This cross anticipated the last high before the precipitous decline over recent weeks. Historically, this cross has been followed by periods of large downside spanning large periods of time.
So does this mean we are entering a bear market?
Not necessarily. Past performance is not indicative of future results. But I would say the charts remain bearish until we get a cross from the ROC to the upside.
If you have any questions or any other topic you would like to be covered, please let me know in the comments below.
Note: All credit for this idea goes to Michael from Figuring Out Money. You can check out his video on the topic at the following link:
www.youtube.com