Bitcoin $666k by Dec? (I know it sounds crazy) Happy New Year!Let me start off by saying I hold a very small position in Ethereum, and do not think that Bitcoin will be the currency of the future. However, I came across this built-in ratio and couldn't resist playing around with Fibonacci time-zones to see if anything interesting popped up. The (potential) results I came across shocked me, so I thought I'd share them here and get thoughts from the community.
This is a Logarithmic chart of the ratio between Gold and Bitcoin. As we can see, there is a very clearly defined trend at play here. This trend saw a false breakout to the upside, which we can call the Covid anomaly. Other than that, it seems pretty clear that Bitcoin is being driven up as gold is being systematically crushed. To add to that, applying a Fib time-zone to the initial drop from Nov 2011-2013 as Gold came off its highs almost lines up perfectly with future pivots (O_o). This is where things get really interesting.
While my macro outlook calls for a major commodities bull market, I see gold initially rallying to $2500 this year, and silver to $42.70 before an engineered pullback to shake out retail investors before the true multi-year bull market. During this time, we are likely to see a flight into BTC/other cryptocurrencies, if it's not also being systematically crushed at the same time. Crypto bulls say it can't be crushed, so let's assume they are correct for the sake of this analysis.
The results show the following:
-XAUBTC Ratio Bottom = ~0.00377
-Ratio Bottom Date: ~Dec 12, 2021
-BTC Price if Gold @ $2500 = $663 130
-BTC Price if Gold @ $1700 = $450 928
I understand that there is a big range for the target, but it's rooted in analysis and dependent on the spot price of Gold. Curious to see what other people's targets are, and what methods you used to calculate them. Thank you for reading and happy trades!
TL; DR: This post is NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. It is simply an interesting projection for calculating a bullish target for BTC using Gold price.
Bitcoin-gold
GBP/CHF : BEARISH GARTLEY PATTERN IN D1 TIMEFRAME 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors and Community!
Analysis of #GBP CHF
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Strategy: Bearish Harmonic Gartley pattern - We will be waiting for all the confirmations to enter in this trade.
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Bitcoin in a clean pitchfork uptrend channel analog to LitecoinJust like Litecoin Bitcoin is in a clean pitchfork uptrend channel unlikely to break anytime soon.
Major institutions and investment fonds have started to buy Bitcoin as a currency hedge and are unlikely to sell anytime soon. See BitcoinTreasuries.org
Also Bitcoin has now overtaken Visa, Mastercard, JPMorgan and soon Berkshire Hattaway as the largest financial asset. See AssetDash.com
While Bitcoin's newly mint coins (new supply) decreases every 4 years, gold mining has increased from 21 mln troy ounces to over 118 mln troy ounces over the past 100 years. Bitcoin is scarcer than gold and features an integrated world wide payment / transfer system, whereas gold needs armed trucks to securely transport and store it.
BTC/XAU - Still it is not an all-time-high...Hello,
I do not treat the U.S. Dollar shitcoin as a money. That is why I like to look sometimes for the prices in relation to pure Gold. Bitcoin, for instance, still do not has its ATH in relation to Gold. The ATH is at the level 15.58 oz of Gold per one Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is on the good way to ATH in relation to Gold, however it still needs to increase its value.
Best regards,
Paweł
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GBP/USD : BEARISH GARTLEY PATTERN ON H4 TIMEFRAME 🔔Analysis of #GBPUSD
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Strategy: Bearish Gartley on H4 timeframe - We will be waiting for all the confirmations to enter in this trade.
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EUR/AUD : PRICE ACTION ON DAILY TIMEFRAME 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors and Community!
Analysis of #EURAUD
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Strategy: Price action on daily timeframe - We will be waiting for all the confirmations to enter in this trade.
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EUR/GBP: PRICE ACTION ON DAILY TIMEFRAME 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors and Community!
Analysis of #EURGBP
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Strategy: Daily price action - We will be waiting for all the confirmations to enter in this trade.
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EUR/GBP : BEARISH CYPHER PATTERN IN H4 TIMEFRAME 🔔Analysis of #EURGBP
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Strategy: Bearish Cypher pattern - We will be waiting for all the confirmations to enter in this trade.
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USD/JPY : ABCD PATTERN + BREAKDOWN IN DAILY TIMEFRAME 🔔Welcome back Traders, Investors and Community!
Analysis of #USDJPY
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Strategy: ABCD PATTERN + BREAKDOWN IN DAILY TIMEFRAME
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DXY, Bitcoin, SPX (S&P500), Euro & GoldLess of a tutorial and more of an observation. Worth a look at the relationships if your new to trading. Bitcoin's addition is intriguing.
Wishing you all a Merry Christmas and a Successful New Year.
Comments & Discussion welcome.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
What you might really look at is ...... the Gold/Bitcoin ratio.
Far oversold on all scales. This means that compared to Bitcoin, Gold either becomes completely useless or is just very cheap. What do you think it is?
It is worthwhile to follow the development for example on 1h. Right now it seems to be reversing. Stay tuned, it is going to be exciting.
To explain it simply, if the blue curve keeps going up, it obviously makes no sense to hold on to Bitcoin, you are much better off exchanging it for Gold and holding on to it.
EURUSDMost people who stop with the 1 day timeframe seeing the breakout might be waiting a slight pull back so they find entries and go long. This might be effective if you are a scalper or day trader. For traders that will hold their positions for weeks or months, let’s take a look at the weekly and monthly.
A thread:
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐The MOST IMPORTANT CHART of the year ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐1. Dollar is looking for direction (will it bounce off this level or will it drop/ and how much?)
2. NFP tomorrow is HUGE data coming out and will push Dollar over or off the current level (price is now on a crucial support level )
3. Next inflation data (Dec 10) and trade balances will be crucial data
4. Dollar price will affect most of your trades:
- metals (negative correlation- especially Gold , Silver , Copper )
- indices (positive coefficients, which means that as the value of the U.S. dollar increases, so do the stock indexes )
- stocks (which shares to choose / which to sell / how to diversify and hedge - 40% of shares follow the dollar)
- Bitcoin (the new safe haven to many may increase dramatically if the dollar crashes)