This POWERFUL Indicator Predicted The Last Seven Recessions!This simple but elegant indicator is nothing but the ISM Manufacturing Index represented with a baseline of 45. Once the ISM line breaches the baseline it indicates a recession is guaranteed if not already under way.
This indicator has perfectly predicted the last seven recessions and is currently trending down towards the baseline as we speak. Like, share and save this indicator so you can check in on it regularly as it could cross below the baseline within a matter of months or even weeks from now.
This is just one indicator that sits along side the multitude of other recession indicators I have posted recently that all point towards a recession beginning late this year, check them out!
Not Financial Advice
Bitcoin-gold
BTG/USD 1H TRIANGLE This is very bullish on the low timeframes, despite being at weekly resistance.
Easy stops all across the chart at 1H AND 4H Closes
BTC: Dat Gold similarity though !I've seen this chart here already somewhere, but I decided to do one of my own, comparing the fractals a bit more closely.
And also trying to give an estimate at where we currently are, and what would happen if this fractal continues to hold true, the way it did until now.
The similarity is certainly absolutely astounding. But some will now cry out: But these are two entirely different markets on entirely different timeframes!!!!
Yes, true, but mass market psychology always shows itself in different assets, in different timeframes. The rules however remain the same: the human hive-mind.
Well, if indeed this was to repeat, and I don't really know if it will, then we could see prices of around 20k-30k as the intermediary top.
Afterwards, we could see a nice cup&handle style formation building up, and early 2020 BTC would then continue to make even higher highs.
Interesting times indeed! And who knows what will happen, but it is always fascinating to point out these similarities.
On a longer timeframe though, I think that gold and bitcoin will diverge drastically. BTC has some quite different underlying technological mechanisms, after all.
But it seems, that bitcoin is treated still as the digital gold, which shows itself in that neat chart.
So now, if this continues to hold true, we'll pump to 12-13k, then a sharp correction back to 8-9k.
This will lead to all indicators cooling off, before the final pump to the 20k region. Let's see what will happen :)
One Batch, Two Batch...Penny & Dime - BITCOIN! (BTC)Hello friends, traders, hodlers, everyone..
I drew this chart a little over 12 hours ago, originally like this:
Originally, I did not post it. The truth is, my personal life as of late, has been very difficult. I have been led to question myself on a lot of occasions. Whether or not, I am making the right choices, doing the right things.
Friends, I find the most common mistake we make both in life and in TA is not being sure of oneself. So, I have decided over the course of today to approach life with more confidence. In the spirit of this, I give to you my path to $10,000 BTC.
After completing back to back 62% retracements, Bitcoin looks sure as ever to push towards a test of $10k. Also, we have just entered a critical fibonacci timezone - the 0.618 zone.
So, our major impulse leg 1 ($5000 - $8250) retraced to $6200 (also 62%) giving us a 161% ext target of exactly $10,000.
After this, we have seen another smaller impulse leg 2 ($6950 - $8300) which then completed a 62% retracement to $7475. This wave alone, also points to a 161% ext of $9100.
Of course, it is still very possible for us to see a heavier retrace towards $6400 like I wanted in some of our previous analyses here....this could all be a double top, but I think something more is afoot....
Only time will tell.
Tread carefully friends, and Good Luck.
Previous Analyses:
The Show Goes On, Lucky 7's Part III - BITCOIN! (BTC)Friends, Traders, Everyone...
This has been, quite the few weeks for Crypto and Bitcoin. I see many people saying, what has happened recently is manipulation. They say things like, it was just a consensus pump. It's just manipulation.
This can always be said for this LOW LIQUIDITY market. It is easy for big players to push price around, and algorithmic driven bots have hair triggers, almost as emotional as many traders in this space themselves.
While these people sit on the sidelines calling foul at missed moves, you have to be on top of your game, just doing you. At the end of the day, only the CHARTS can be trusted to give the truth. Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING is shown on the chart - whales can hide behind anything, but the charts do not lie! So, manipulation is the wrong mindset to have - maybe it's there, maybe its not - and we all know deep down, of course it is. You have the Bitmex bears, players like Bitman, and don't get started on the Bitfinex/Tether drama.
The only thing WE can do, is trust our charts, and have faith in ourselves as traders with GOOD STOP LOSS and DISCIPLINE to keep us profitable. Remember all of this and take what I am saying to heart - blaming manipulation will not get you far. Take ADVANTAGE of it, trust yourSELF and your CHARTS.
Enough of that! On to the charts. In my last analysis shown below, we called for a BIG retracement on Bitcoin - now I ask if this was simply a fat finger, WHY are some analysts able to see these things coming?! All manipulation falls victim to ONE RULE - the charts! We entered the 0.618 Fib Time Zone from the last bull run, and sure enough, BOOM! A massive 62% retracement. Now, we fell back below the fib channel which is now going to act as resistance. This is a good thing - we have two simple paths. We can retrace further, down back to the fib retracements - 62-79% area ($5800-$6400 area) which is a PERFECT BUY. Or, we may simply have ALREADY completed this retracement - if scenario #2 is the case, this market is VERY BULLISH, as the drop was bought up fast!
Now, it's up to you to be the judge. Are we in a BULL MARKET, or has this all simply been tomfoolery. I cannot say for sure, all I can say is FIBONACCI has shown none of this is COINCIDENCE.
You must decide for yourself, I can only show you what I SEE in the chart. Now, I anticipate either we will see another, less violent drop below $7k to retest a retracement (look for buys) or simply, we will gather strength and break into the next fib channel above. (about $7600 area at time of posting). So, if you are feeling good, you're either long already, or long from where we are now. Either way, I will not long again HERE. I had long orders which filled, staggered under $7k down to $6400. For now, I will have a tight stop on those, at $6900. We can then look for another breakout near our LUCKY 7 target - $7777. With an ultimate target - of ABOVE $9k. There, we can reassess and judge our chances to test the big boy psychological resistance at $10k
As always, use your head, be safe, trust your charts, and above all, be DISCIPLINED in all you do.
Good luck traders!
Previous analyses:
Litecoin heading south.. don't be surprised if support breaks...Bitcoin to 7K by August then retracement back as gloomy Autumn, Winter and Spring settles in heading into the next year. HNWI moving into bonds and safer assets as they have reaped the gains now. I expect markets will cool off between 2020 and 2022 just as they did in 2000 to 2002 and 2010 to 2012.
Best regards,
Grey
Good news out of China, EEM Should be Up TodayEEM is mostly made up Chinese A-shares meaning this ETF is primarily dependent upon data coming out of China. Recent data is quite promising while the US-China trade war negotiations continue to show positive developments. Exports data coming out of China is positive this morning, moreover the US will not keep on putting pressure on China politically according to Bloomberg. Also, data suggests the trade surplus increases while credit growth beats estimates. Could see 3 to 6 percent increase in Shanghai on Monday if all else is equal.
Bottom line is EEM could be up maybe 1 percent today given the positive news and sentiment coming out of the Middle Kingdom.
Weekly Momentum Analysis On Major Pairs (Wk11/2019)XXX/USD: Bearish
Gold & Silver: Slight Bullish (Weak)
XXX/JPY: Very Bearish
Indexes: Very Bearish
BitCoin: Mixed/Slight Bullish
Post Scriptum: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume, Macro nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up.
BTG Bitcoin Gold - Full retraceNot financial advise. Do your own research. The ideas shared here are the personal opinions of the BitDoctor team. Trade at your risk.
In our friendly group, we took a close look at Bitcoin Gold back around August 2018 and hopefully at this point everyone has seen the BTGUSDLONGS chart. I don't want to get into that right now, but feel free to take a look if you'd like. We watched the flat top wedge form and traded the breakout. There was some crazy price action at the top (as you can see by that crazy candle) and we got out.
Now we're sitting at almost a 100% retrace, so the question is... are we done here and finding a good support or are we going to continue more red.
My gut feeling is we're going to fail this support and fall more but it depends on what the price action is doing. What I can see right now is yesterday there was plenty of buying but more selling (causing a long wick on top of the small candle body). Similar candles can be seen in the immediate past (within the last 2 weeks). This does not look good for BTG.
I said I wouldn't get into the BTGUSDLONGS chart but here I go anyway. If that person decides to unload that position, they hold such a large position it will likely crash the price of BTG and fast.
All in all, I would stay away from Bitcoin Gold until it decides what it wants to do.
Trade safely my friends
<3 -CE-
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 313)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish
Patterns: Phase 7 of hyperwave | Bear channel
Horizontals: Kind of in no mans land after closing below $3,500. Next area of support is $3,200
Trendline: Bear Channel
Parabolic SAR: $3,527
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.72% spread | Tightening spread as we near support is bearish and I will be watching for that to flip back to Contango.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Higher lows and higher highs. Making another higher high while capitulating makes a lot of sense.
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0008%
TD’ Sequential: R5
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen continues to act as strong resistance
Relative Strength Index: Lower lows and lower highs
Average Directional Index: ADX crossing 20 with -DI > +DI indicating the potential start of a new bear trend.
Price Action: 24h: -2.9% | 2w: -6.1% | 1m: -9.4%
Bollinger Bands: Close below bottom band and now the BB’s are no longer squeezing.
Stochastic Oscillator: Watching for D, 3D and Weekly buy signal.
Summary: I am finding the XAU:BTC ratio very interesting right now. Throughout the first 11 months of the 2018 bear market BTC barely lost value against gold and the ratio remained below 0.2 during that time.
However there was a sudden and drastic change that occured in November. Gold found a bottom and Bitcoin continued to sell off. The ratio currently sits at 0.387 and it is threatening to retest 0.5.
This is alarming and has me wondering about the possible fundamentals behind the shift. Regardless the technicals indicate that Gold is on the verge of another massive bull run while BTC still appears to have a way to go before finding a bottom. Will be very interesting to see how this develops.
From here I am expecting a retest of $3,200 and I think there is > 50% chance that it holds as support and provides a strong bounce to $5,200 - $5,800. If that happens it would form a Bulkowski Big W on the weekly chart.
However if the market re enters Contango while retesting $3,200 then I will become bearish and will look for possible short entries.
BTC/GOLD - Let's zoom out and see where to buy or go short!Don't forget to smash the like and follow button if you feel it deserves it.
Trading idea: For those who have a longer term time horizon
Buy on the break out of the resistance line of both patterns or go short once key supports are broken.
200 DMA:
Gold is trending above which is very bullish
Bitcoin needs to retrace above for the trend to officially change. Currently at around 5.8k.
Regards,
Bobby
Don't hate the hair, hate the game.
New Trading Opportunities in 2019Dear followers and TradingView members, Happy New Year!
I’m so excited because 2019 should be very interesting for great trading opportunities.
Gold market will try to develop the uptrend.
The oil markets after dropping will be able to give good long opportunities. Will it be trend reversals or a deep correction movements, we will see. But at least the markets will test the bottom and it will give interesting entry levels for opening long positions.
Forex market will continue to provide stable trading opportunities based on different fundamental events which we will have during the whole year: Brexit, relationship between USA and China and so on.
And of course, special interest goes to Bitcoin which will try to give the 2nd opportunity for crypto-enthusiasts to feel how to make money in crypto markets.
This year is going to be interesting for amazing trading opportunities and I wish you to have good knowledge, tools and enough experience for turning these opportunities into real profit!
The best wishes to you and good luck in 2019!
GOLD SHORTSExpecting GOLD to drop next week. GOLD didn't make many moves this week at all. GOLD never normally goes 5 days with such weak moves. What does this mean?
Accumulation to collect orders at such a high price. We saw gold fall a bit Friday and recovered very quick. But, still down for the day. I would like to see some profit taking from the banks with it being Christmas time. We will see.
Bitcoin has a long way to go ...to nothingThis is one way to look at it. You believe in whatever thing you want, but believe have a price: time and mind health.
In TA there is this theory called Dow theory. You might want to google it and especially the numerous cases when it verified in practice.
One image that v nicely exemplifies this theory is this:
alphatrends.net
I give one recent example: Gold 2008-2018
This is the chart of gold and I put a red dot where we are compared to current BTC levels. A long way to go indeed.
Problem is that even if it stabilizes like Gold in the next 2-3 years, maybe at 1000 USD, then it doesn't mean BTC will start a new bull market
As per period, you need to lower your expectations greatly, even after 2013 peak, BTC took another 4 years until 2017 to experience the bubble market again. 4 years!
We are in the 2nd phase of Bear market (Panic or Big move downwards)
After this period ... follows Despair, hope lost and this is a human process. It seems to take some 2-3 years in average. If you plan to explore your inner despair and regret emotions ... this is your chance.
My personal suggestion is to forget about it. If regret is you thing then HODL and let it go. It is gone. There is no hope for you there if you plan to remain a sane person.
I even draw some arrows for crystal globe lovers.
But this is just a theory. Believe in anything you want but have skin in the game otherwise you lose time