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Bitcoin-gold

BTC/GOLD ratio Bitcoin will start to heavily outperform GoldWe looked into this correlation 3 weeks ago with the following analysis but on the reverse ratio of GOLD/BTC: As you see that was right when the ratio tested the 7 year Lower Highs trend-line and the rejection so far is confirming our bias, which are sell Gold and buy Bitcoin for the next couple years. Gold's 4 straight week sell-off is basically sending a signal to the whole market. Now back to this study, we view the ratio as BTC/GOLD to put it into a longer-term perspective. We are in the exact same bottom level the price was in December 2019 and January 2015. A conversion of some Gold wealth into BTCUSD for the next 2 years is highly recommended. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
4
An investor's perspective of Bitcoin v/s Gold I am trying to answer questions of #bitcoins v/s #Gold debate from an #investor perspective. What if #Gold was currency used to buy #Bitcoin ? What will be the impact of a #Fifty50 #portfolio of #BTCXAU? Feel free to #retwit #Like #share & #follow #TradingView to the rescue. The #chartidea shows #BTCUSD represented in #XAUUSD terms. Allow me to "coin" the word #BTCXAU To start with, some facts and important points on timeline The chart shows this ratio in daily timeframe. On September 15, 2017 #BTCXAU made the first major break out from 2.50 oz of gold per bitcoin. After peaking on December 17, 2017 the ratio crashed back to 2.50 oz. With intermediate peak in June/July 2019 at ~9.50 oz, it collapsed again to 2.50 oz. Eventually the big bitcoin moment came on March 13, 2020. #COVID19 brought #CryptoMarket rally which brought #BTCXAU to above 37 oz on April 14, 2021. Putting this in perspective. If you invested in #BTC directly using your #USDollar you would have paid $5600 on March 13, 2020 v/s 3.68 oz of #Gold and if sold at the peak on April 14, 2021, you would have got $62,986 v/s 36.27 oz of #Gold. That means, in #USD terms, you would have made 11.25 times your money and in #Gold terms, you would have made 9.86 times your money. So the #Delta of 14% represents the growth in #Gold. Of course, if you were smart, informed and/or lucky enough to pick the bottom and top, #Bitcoin beat #Gold hands down. However, the real fun started from the #Bitcoin #AllTimeHigh on November 10, 2021 at $69,000 which translated to 37.41 oz of #Gold. As of today, June 6, 2022, #BTCUSD touched low of $20,079 or 11.11 oz of #Gold. So from that #ATH, it has dropped -71% in #Dollar terms but also -70% in #glitter terms, interestingly removing the delta it showed while going up. So if you created a #Fifty50 portfolio of 1 #BTCUSD and 3.56 #XAUUSD on March 13, 2020 and sold off both on November 10, 2021, you would have made 562% return on the portfolio v/s 1113% in #BTCUSD alone or 22.89% in #XAUUSD alone. Interestingly, if you invested in the same portfolio at the peak on November 10, 2021, today you will be -66% on #BTC alone v/s -33% on a combined portfolio v/s -1.5% on #XAUUSD #Gold alone The lessons I take from this are very simple #BTC likens growth stock providing high beta return and #Gold likens value stock providing store of value I should be invested in both in varying proportions based on risk sentiment and market conditions I should ignore all those promoting #Crypto as #digitalgold because #BTC is definitely not store of value I should equally ignore all those promoting #Gold as ultimate investment / store of value etc etc because I wouldn't be making any money on that Nothing can beat the classical portfolio investing thinking of a balanced portfolio with nice averaging Rebalance your portfolio every quarter or month based on the market conditions Trade, speculate, gamble but never invest in 2nd rated instruments in the given space like #altcoins in #CryptoSpace I can never go broke taking profits. I only go broke for #Hodling. So never hesitate to sell to book profits or stopping further losses.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingIndian
1
Negative Divergences Often Warn of Declines: Bitcoin & Gold Negative Divergences Often Warn of Impending Declines: Bitcoin Highlighted…. Is Gold Next? OTC:GBTC COMEX:GC1! INDEX:BTCUSD The CMT Association is proud to publish this guest post from Louise Yamada CMT. Louise was a Managing Director and Head of Technical Research for Smith Barney (Citigroup), and while there, was a perennial leader in the Institutional Investor poll and the top-ranked market technician in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004. Louise was the 2016 recipient of the CMT Association’s Lifetime Achievement Award. In these examples we use the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator to illustrate the concept of divergence, to forensically evaluate Bitcoin and to make some forward looking observations on the gold market. Divergences: • Negative momentum divergences often warn of impending price consolidations or declines. • Divergence forms as price moves to a new high while the oscillator fails at a lower high, creating a negative divergence between the oscillator and price. • Divergences of this type suggest that the underlying momentum may be waning. Divergences carry different implications depending upon their time frame. • Daily perspective divergences suggest either a consolidation, or a pullback in an ongoing uptrend. • Weekly perspective divergences suggest a more sustained consolidation or even a reversal of trend, particularly if important support is violated. • Monthly divergences have the potential to result in a more sustained decline or even to reverse an uptrend. MACD sell signals give validity to divergences. • Monthly signals have much more weight than weekly and daily. • Monthly divergences don’t always occur prior to monthly MACD sell signals • But when a sell signal does occur it offers a structural warning. Graystone Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Weekly: • The March 2021 high (A) was followed by a roughly equal price high (B). However, the MACD momentum peaked at a significantly lower high (Line A1-B1), forming a classic divergence that suggested that upward momentum was fading. • At point C, the weekly MACD moved onto a sell signal (the fast moving average crossed below the slower moving average) strongly suggesting that positions should be either lightened or sold. • After the sell signal was generated, price declined from 50 to 24. • A weekly MACD buy signal was then generated at point D. The subsequent rally carried price near the prior high. • The failure of the MACD to match its prior high warned of potential weakness. • The MACD generated another sell signal at point E, suggesting lightening or selling positions. Price offered another decline from 50 to 24. • After a multi-week consolidation in March-April 2022, price broke below the support @24 (S1-S2). • MACD continues to decline, suggesting that the price decline may not be over, notwithstanding interim rallies. • Before considering a new long, evidence of stabilization at a low and the gradual reversal of the daily, weekly and eventually, monthly MACDs would be required. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Daily • On the daily perspective chart that there is a divergence from price (A-B) and the MACD (C-D) • The divergence warned of the possibility of bearish developments spreading to the weekly and monthly. Graystone Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Monthly: • The monthly chart also shows a divergence at points MD1 and MD2 and on the histogram at MD3 and MD4. • At the second price high (B), MACD hadn’t yet generated a sell signal, but it was beginning to flatten and roll over. • One can also see the falling histogram, as the MACD narrows (blue arrow), and the divergence progressed, until it finally generated a clear sell. • Price lingered above the support at 24 (S2) for several months providing ample time to adjust positions before the May 2022 price breakdown. Momentum is still declining, suggesting that it’s too soon to consider re-entry, notwithstanding interim rallies, which can carry into resistance, formerly support. Graystone Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) relative to SPX Weekly: • One can also note a similar warning in the weekly Relative Strength (RS) negative divergence. • In this case the RS for BITCOIN/SPX was also suggesting a change from a period of relative overperformance to one of relative underperformance. Is Gold Next? Gold is displaying many of the same long term MACD warning behaviors evident in the GBTC chart. COMEX Gold Daily: • Despite the May 2020 (R1) and 2022 (R2) price peaks being roughly equal, the MACD (R3 & R4) peaked at a much lower level. • A MACD Sell signal occurred after the 2020 peak (R3), alerting to the possible price decline, which eventually carried to the March 2021 low near 1,700 (S1). • The lower March 2022 MACD peak (R4) also registered a sell signal, suggesting one might lighten positions. COMEX Gold Monthly: • There is a monthly multi-year MACD negative divergence between the 2012 (R1) and 2022 (R2) price peaks. • In 2012, the monthly MACD structural sell signal (R3) was very effective as price collapsed toward 1,100 on the sell signal. • In March 2022, the MACD, registered another major monthly sell (R4), and then subsequently rallied to test the high (R2) without generating a new buy signal (A), a sign of weakness. • The MACD has remained negative and appears poised to perhaps continue down. • This suggests that Gold may be in danger of a potentially large decline, especially if support at 1,700 is broken. • Such a breach could easily find support at the breakout level from the 2013 to 2019 basing pattern at 1400. • It is possible, however, that although GOLD has broken out in many other currencies, the extraordinary current strength in the US dollar may be contributing to the Gold disappointment. Louise Yamada CMT LYAdvisors LLC
GEducation
by CMT_Association
75
BTC to GOLD ratio shows bottom could be close !This ratio has proven to be effective at least 4 times since the secular Bitcoin bull market has started: JAN 2015 - AUG 2015 - DEC 2018 - MAR 2020 Will it show the way in JUN 2022 ? Odds favour it might be so ! Either the ratio touched the 7 year ascending trendline (JAN 2015 - AUG 2015 - MAR 2020) Or the RSI of the ratio reached deeply oversold levels (DEC 2018) In JUN 2022 we will have both (ratio touting the trendline AND RSI reaching very oversold levels) ! Moreover the ratio will touch the previous ATH of DEC 2017 (indicated by the light blue horizontal line). This had already happened in AUG 2016 when the ATH in the ratio functioned as support. Please note the light blue arrow !! So now we have 3 indicators converging !! In JUN 2022 we will have ratio support line, RSI at around 30 and the previous ATH giving support ! PERSONALLY I think we will hold these levels ! * Shout out to Christopher Aron for showing me the important BTC GOLD ratio 7 year trendline !!
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by Dangermousebanana
2