BTC looking South on many indicatorsThis would be a short term trade, with potential for a longer run.
Key takeaways:
Green 50 Day MA was rejected.
Daily Mid-BB giving out currently.
Stochastic, Stochastic RSI and Smoothed RSI appear to be starting a downtrend.
Potential MACD cross down upcoming.
The chart just doesn't look good with those indicators at this moment. This is during the middle of the daily candle, so there is still hope to hold the Mid-BB but regardless if the daily ends a red candle it appears headed to the bottom of the relatively tight BBs. This move would take the Stochastic, Stochastic RSI, RSI and MAs down as well.
There is a chance that since the BBands have been tight for so long there could be large movement. Since the indicators point down, a short term short could turn into a longer play.
However, as a long term bull I can see hope for a potential bottom here. This could just be the mentioned indicators doing a "reset". By this I mean, price moves down very little while bringing down many key indicators like mentioned. This leaves much room for them to move up. To get the most out of an indicator reset like this, there might be a relatively large red candle while indicators are bottomed and followed by a steady green rally. That one large red candle helps offset the positive momentum of new green candles so that the indicators don't rise too quickly, painting a more enduring bullish picture. If you look at the chart, this would mean price steadily goes down to bottom BBand, dips below it quickly, and rallies steadily towards upper BBand rather quickly.
Long-term bear case: daily MACD crossover, price still below all major MAs.
Long-term bull case: potential indicator reset with a higher low at lower BB.
DISCLAIMER: For educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment including all types of crypto. DYOR, TYOB.
Bitcoin-short
BTC/USD Bullish Short Term & Bearish Mid term Outlook...Hi guys,
I have plotted a fib retracement from around the 17th November (high) to 18th December (low) and you can clearly see some vital rejections, support levels and wickfishing i.e. bull traps or bear traps - with the long wicks... with daily candle closures failing to close above or below the fib levels.
Currently, BTC on the daily is looking like it has broken the .618 level @ 7273.08 USD and is making its way towards the next fib level at .5 @ 7533 USD, which is also at a key resistance and support level (long term key levels which are highlighted by yellow shaded boxes), so this is one confluence for a short term bullish outlook.
The next confluence is that we have not even seen a single retest of the 8000 USD region since we have fallen below and in the long term... every time we have gone below or above this region we have always retested it, therefore it is a key level.
This brings us to our next confluence which is the completion of the head and shoulders at this region - with the left shoulder starting from 25TH NOV, which lines up exactly with the FIB RETRACEMENT .0.236 @ 8116 USD
Next confluence is the higher highs and higher lows shown by the white trendline drawn across 25 Nov to 3rd Jan... Although we broke this trendline 16th-18th December price has come back up strongly to retest and maintain this trendline, and the opening of this daily looks like a strong and solid bounce off the trendline.
After this short term region of around 8100-7700 USD is met... price should bounce off the bearish channel drawn on the long term outlook with the two red trendlines and we could be seeing levels as low around 6000-4000 USD before price will continue to surge again and hopefully act as the next starting point for the next 2020 bull run which could be initiated by the long term green trendline bounce...
Thanks
Bitcoin - Long Above Key Support LevelBitcoin has been in a downtrend and despite us believing that it will drop towards support at around $6500 we feel this a good entry level for the cryptocurrency to rebound and there is significant upside potential from this level. However, if Bitcoin consolidates below $6500 we could see 2019 YTD gains being erased and prices falling towards $4000 in the next few weeks.
The Monday moveYesterday several indicators was leaning towards a big move today from yesterday’s post (will link below), but I remained bullish and was too busy to pay attention to the charts. Nothing really stood out. After breaking 7024 and now well below 7k. There is now more downside coming soon.
Targets of now would recommend a retest of 6.5k and if you been following since the double bottom or first break to 6.5k are long term bearish target is that 5.2k range.
Why would it go to 5.2k lower? Well vpvr shows most trading volumes in that area also let’s talk politics.
US election is next year with the halving. I predict we rebound to 7k closer to the halving, but more bleeding as Congress is looking towards election instead of regulation of crypto. Will be another slow year till next fall. Also with price the war between China miners vs western miners since China has the cheapest compared to western miners it wouldn’t be surprise if there’s attack of more sell pressure to eleminate western mining farms to control the network.
So now we will play the bearish side till next year.
Finding a BOTTOMHello and good day to you!
Thank you for tuning in, I appreciate it.
Today´s input:
1.
-RSI showing lower lows
-Price showing lower lows
= This is a bearish divergence = Could mean, we have not found our bottom for now.
-6000 levels might be a possible low.
2.
-Continuation Pattern (Trend continues) vs. Reversal Pattern (End of a trend, opposite direction)
-Perspectives- it depends on the timeframe and range when you build an opinion about a trend!
Sorry guys for the noise in the background, gonna fix this in the next one.
Thank you all for the messages, for the 30 LIKES (just WOW) and all the comments.
As I said, I keep uploading vids since the community likes them.
If you liked the content, I would appreciate a like, sub or comment, this helps me to improve and to know, whether to continue or not.
Thank you guys, I am grateful to be part of our little community.
See you in the next one,
your quality-trader
Bitcoin Will Die $BTC will die. It's just a matter of when. I expect that within the next year -- and potentially much sooner than that -- BTC will be trading under $4,000.
If it falls under what little support it has at $7,000, that would light the way for a very bearish trend. Both the weekly and the daily charts look pretty ugly. Lower highs and lower lows. Every time momentum gathers for a breakout, it fails to break through and falls further.
The trend for the past few months has been characterized by quick falls and lengthier periods of consolidation. BTCUSD started out the year with a period of low volatility before gathering steam in April and taking off in May.
Between May and June 27, BTC more than tripled -- gaining 152.59% in just two months. On the 27th, it dropped from over $13,000 to just over $10,000. A $3,000 fall in less than 24 hours. Subsequent attempts to gain the momentum for a sustained push upwards have failed -- the cryptocurrency is in a clear downward channel.
I'm anticipating this bearish trend to continue into next year. Bitcoin will die a long, slow death punctuated with surges of volatility of decreasing intensity and frequency. I expect BTC to be trading under $4,000 within the next 6-12 months.
Short again, risk loweredHello friends,
I have gone short again from 7350, I am expecting to hit the levels marked in the chart. However, I have reduced risk as the volatility has been reduced and therefore that reduces the expected value of the trade.
I would not be surprised if we go up from here, but the trend is down and that's how I trade - I don't care about what I "think" will happen. I follow my strategy. What's yours and do you follow it? You should if you do not.
Thanks for reading,
YS
Bitcoin - Short - Further Downside We still see Bitcoin moving lower towards the support level at $6516 despite the limited amount of price action across the past few trading sessions. On the upside we would still want the cryptocurrency to consolidate above the $10000 psychological level before being confident the upward momentum is sustained.
Scam pump incoming.Many scam pumps, it has a reason actually. Price is testing a strong resistance from 2015-2017 bull run (RIP) which is the gray horizontal line at 7700-7800 (0.618 fib retracement). Also, many bagholders and deluded millenials are FOMOimg hard and longing, market will do the opposite, as always. A good point of entry may be if price breaks 7800 or a confirmed inverse SHS pattern on falling wedge breakup. Close on 200ma.
DEGENS, GAMBLERS AND ESPECIALLY BAGHOLDERS WILL REKT REALLY HARD!!!
Believe the bounce is over and a new local low is imminent...Hello friends,
As you know, my medium term perspective has been bearish and now a short setup has arrived and I will be taking it. I don't believe we are going to see new highs in bitcoin any time soon and the trend is down - therefore I am only looking to short with any real meaningful % risk.
-YS
BTC - More Downside ComingI do my best to only trade longer term trends. My last post was during the last bottoming event for Bitcoin when I was accumulating. In my opinion there's two scenarios here. We bottom out in the 5k range and bounce or Bitcoin breaches the 3200 low from last year and we destroy a lot of peoples hearts in the process. I've set my first two 25% short term buys for BTC, one of them has already been hit. I will evaluate market conditions if we break below 5k and publish where my final two buy targets will be.