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Bitcoin-short

Merry Christmas 2019! Your gift? Bitcoin at 3K! A Short ScenarioHi All, Wow, what a couple of months... and weeks... and days... and hours! What the hell is going on with BTC!? Now I know this post may get taken the wrong way to begin with so lets lay a few ground rules first; 1. This is just a scenario. Nobody really knows what BTC is going to do next, so no, I'm not claiming to predict the future. 2. I know the pattern is somewhat incomplete but I address this in my TA. 2.1. In saying the above, I have published this idea as a possible pathway that BTC might take downward, should we have a confirmed downtrend, with the intention of a retrace. Now the supporting TA; Head & Shoulders Pattern I have started the analysis with the pattern as it is arguably the weakest element of TA on the chart. We do not have a right shoulder forming yet, let alone a confirmed neckline! There are a few confirming factors we can consider however. In order for the proposed neck line to be confirmed (or touched at the least), we would need to break the 38.2 fib line, break the trend line established since April (labeled 20MA trendline which we will get to later), and dip below the 50MA. A considerable task. There is one recurrence though which works in this patterns favor; The period displayed above shows the highest number of 38.2 fib line tests both as resistance and support. There is noticeable confluence with the MACD indicator, as every positive MACD cycle clearly coincides with a hold of the fib line, whereas every negative cycle coincides with a break of the fib line. If we now look at the current chart you will notice MACD is about to cross into negative cycle. Additionally, considering the previous MACD cycle took 15 days, and assuming this cycle is around the same, we actually provision a perfect amount of time for price action to reach our hypothetical neckline. The case for this point to act as a pivot is double edged; The neckline suggested by the first shoulder is in perfect confluence with the trend line set since the break out in April (labelled 50MA trendline). Both of these as well as the fact that the 8400-8500 price range has been a traditional level for support/resistance previously suggest that this support line may be too strong to breach at an initial attempt. The case for the subsequent bounce and pullback to and from the right shoulder is as follows; The 10K mark has psychological value and there would be interest in retesting this price from a retail perspective. This same 10k mark has also acted as support/resistance previously. Our trend line from April would be tested as resistance in confluence (labelled 20MA trend-line), and an attempt at breach of the 38.2 fib level would also occur. It is at this point where i think it is crucial if this pattern is to succeed or fail, as well as strong signalling for short to mid term trend confirmations. We could see the right shoulder creep a little higher for example but any serious breach of the 50 fib line would largely invalidate this analysis. For the idea to be viable, all levels of resistance must hold for the formation of the right shoulder. Following this is the confirmation of the pattern, which is the break of the neckline. In order to do so price action would need to break the trend line established since April (50MA Trendline) a significant milestone. This would ultimately be the second attempt and would signal the end of this mid term uptrend. The distance from head to neckline, measured from the assumed trend line breach provides us with a possible target of 3K. To achieve this target we would need to breach the final ascending trend line established back in DEC of last year as well as the 200 MA, technically (and in all reality) plunging us once again into a bear market. Should the above occur, 2019 would have obviously not been the year the new BTC Bullrun started. MA's and MA Trendlines There are a number of trend lines drawn on the chart; 7MA TL (Trendline), 20MA TL, 50MA TL, 200MA TL, and lastly the major trend established in DEC last year. The 200MA TL is at deviation, at a steeper angle and degree, to the major trend line, just as the 50MA TL is at deviation, at a steeper angle and degree to the 200MA TL so and and so forth all the way to the 7MA TL. This is in perfect confluence with the parabolic nature of BTC's recent rise. I have assigned each TL an MA as each MA should touch or get in close proximity to each of the red dots marked on the suggested H&S price trajectory and trendlines following a H&S price pattern. Should the pattern materialise, we should start to see a downward trajectory for the 7, 20 and 50 Ma's which should be in or around those points. This is not support for this analysis as such, but additional chart occurence that we might expect so see. MACD & Histogram MACD is clearly showing signs of turning to negative cycle. We also currently have the lines touching the upper half of the symmetrical triangle providing BTC with ample room for downard price action. Histogram has also confirmed the start of a negative trend albeit a weak one at this stage. VOLUME This is actually one of the most telling indicators. We simply do not have anywhere near the same volume leading up to the bull run of 2017. Obviously this is not support of the pattern occurring, but its strong support of a downward move however that may be. I don't think we can consider this the start of the bull run with these levels of volume not do I think these levels are enough to sustain an upward move let alone fend off a downward one. VPVR If we move our time frame to start from this years bottom, we will notice that our value profile sits 5K and below. This is in perfect confluence with the volume charts suggesting that we have not had wider participation in this current bull run and purchases above 5K have been in the minority. It also suggests that we don't have much resistance from a demand perspective at least until 4.5-5K opening up the reality or opportunity for BTC to revisit 3K. Ichimoku Clouds The H&S right shoulder would nicely retest Ichimoku as well as the aforementioned indicators prior to pattern confirmation. The more confluence the better. Confirmation of current down trend TBC by this indicator however, something to note. Summary The pattern is still forming, and as such, invalidation of this idea will be quick and swift. Overall my disposition is still a short on BTC in the mid-term based on various other indicators mentioned. Another revisit at the 3K level would need a new technical analysis for entry, but it would not be a bad assumption to think that a second visit to 3K should it occur, would act as a double bottom. Additionally with halving occurring next year as well as a maturing crypto market and participants we should have a better conditions to kickstart a new bullrun. Equity markets tanking late this year/ early next year would also be viewed positively from a crypto perspective. Confirmation Formation and confirmation of pattern. Invalidation; 50% Fib test in short term. General dissolution of pattern. Thanks guys, leave a comment and let me know your thoughts, Traders-Corner *** Any trading advice provided has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the information provided you should consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. You should seek professional personal financial advice before making any financial or investment decisions. All investment and trade decisions, no matter how well investigated, involve risk. ***
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Traders-Corner
4
I see a us moving below the 8k zone.I am fairly confident that the next 2 months we will see a decrease in bitcoin price. People will be panic selling and strength of bitcoin will get lower. I could see us getting down to the 7k range, I have a purple rectangle where I am assuming price will be going. The reason I feel this way is because of the indecision candle we just made on the monthly, and the shooting star candle on the weekly. Usually we can't assume things with an indecision candle, but with the shooting star candle on the weekly followed by the current red candle and the 6 month run up we just had. I'm about 95% sure we will drop back down to the 7k regions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Goldkodak
Patch forming on the dailyAs expected we bounced of some fibs and then patch took control of the bulls. Common to see a patch of this volume break to the upside Still waiting to see how the rsi preforms under patch intimidation Patea Maori Club indicator showing strong poi E Here is my heart indicator showing strong levels of Jake and Beth Heke The RSI indicating that Beauden Barrett is primed and ready to take off 2019 world cup Use stop losses Don't forget to take profits
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn2014765
Bitcoin correction is near! Target ~ 6500Just as my 2019 prediction, I thought bitcoin near correction after the bull run from Feb.2019. Here are why: Percentage of gain: From 07.Feb of 2019, bitcoin last more than 4 month bullish run, price of bitcoin jump from 3390 to 9444 (17.June), the percentage of gain is 178%, I analysis each bull run of last bull market (price from Bitstamp). from 24.Aug of 2015 to 02.Nov of 2015, last ~ 2.5 month, price from 198 to 502, gain 153% from 09.Nov of 2015 to 13.June of 2016, last ~ 7 month, price from 294 to 778, gain 164% from 15.Aug of 2016 to 02.Jan of 2017, last ~ 4.5 month, price from 552 to 1139, gain 106% from 09.Jan of 2017 to 06.Mar of 2017, last ~ 2 month, price from 751 to 1350, gain 80% from 20.Mar of 2017 to 05.June of 2017, last ~ 2.5 month, price from 891 to 2967, gain 232% from 10.July of 2017 to 28.Aug of 2017, last ~ 1.5 month, price from 1830 to 4169, gain 128% from 11.Sep of 2017 to 06.Nov of 2017, last ~ 2 month, price from 2972 to 7888, gain 165% from 06.Nov of 2017 to 11.Dec of 2017, last ~ 1 month, price from 5555 to 19666, gain 254% bull run range from 80% to 254%, the average gain is 160% for each bull run. Current gain is ~ 178%, above the average bull run gain, which is a sign of overbought. Bull Run Time The average bull run time is 2.8 month, current bull run time last around 4 month, which is a sign of correction time near. Moving average A health bull run should periodical retest the moving average, but currently, the bitcoin is very bullish, much more above the 20 week moving average, which is the most important support moving average in last bull run. let see is price drop to test the moving average, or hold waiting for moving average catch up the price increase? Market strength whole market in overbought zone(RSI of week and daily) very long times, I don't think it can last forever, and from the volume observation, it's decrease over time, seems like the new money flow into crypto market decreased, more and more investor is waiting in the front of the door. OTC USDT price OTC USDT price is a good measure to reflect the investor's enthusiasm for the market, USDT price dropped from 1.04 usd to 1.0 usd. and I observed serval OTC market, the price is the same. Reflect investor is decreasing. Next, let look at the technical analysis of bitcoin 9000 and 8830 is the important support line of bitcoin, 8830 is the most, if cannot hold, H&S formed, I thought we will see massive short volume after 8830 break. If I'm lucky, this prediction come true, what's our plan? Bug in Fib : 38%: 7143, 50%: 6417, 62%: 5690 Another aspect is buy in MA 10, MA 15, and MA 20 of bitcoin weekly price. Combine all of analysis, I thought bitcoin final correction price is around ~ 6500. Thanks for your watching, if you like this thread, pls like :)
Short
by HuPan
Bitcoin - WTF is going on?OK, call me paranoid, but anybody that has followed me for more than a minute knows I call the patterns early. I call the breaks early. I called the bottom early. I tend to panic early. Now, that being said, WTF is going on with the Bitcoin shorts the past few days or more? The Bitcoin price keeps plowing North but the short positions continue to climb. What? Nobody is going to cover? How much pain can these people take? Or..... is there something more nefarious going on? We know, or at least I know, that the demand for BTC is HUGE worldwide. Do the exchanges have enough BTC to fill all of the orders or are they selling short to fill the buy orders hoping to cover later? I don't know. All I know is that if I was short a thousand dollars ago I would have covered so fast we would not even be talking about it. I really am puzzled at to why the Bitcoin price continues to scream NORTH and yet there is no indication that anybody on the short side wants to cover. Are you that cock sure of your position that you will continue to take an ungodly amount of pain? I don't think so. I've been there and done that. Cut your loss and run is the order of the day. But that does not appear to be what is happening. Bitcoin goes up, the open short positions go up. Bitcoin goes up, the open short positions go up. Rinse and repeat. This has been going on for quite some time. My answer? I have removed ALL but about 10% of my long BTC position from the Exchange. If the shit is going to his the fan, I'll be dam if I'm going to stand in front of it. I am STILL long, will remain long, and ALL but 10% of my Satoshi are safely tucked away under MY control. If anybody has a good explanation of this situation I would love to hear it. BBS Out!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinBearSlayer
20
BTC undecision before a potential pushDifficult to predict for now and best way is to stay away until the situation is more clear. but if u are like me and hodl BTC u shouldn't care much, just have to find the best moment to charge more the bag. its not easy to compare Shorters Vs Buyers. i will just tell you what i can see and what happened before to try predict the future. When BTC reached 8200ish, Shorts went down as you can see a long red dip column. After that Shorts started to go up again but Longs were stronger so BTC continued is push to 9000ish. Few days ago we saw that BTC dipped to 7600ish area and Shorts pushed up. So right now we can see that BTC Pushed a bit back up to 7800ish area but Shorts are almost down and ready for a next push up. What it means ? if Shorts Dip down and BTC go up a just bit.. its not really good because when they will attack to push up again BTC will down again. so it sound like we are still in a correction. i know that is a bit complicated but to make it Simple u just have to look 3EMA ( Red 200D, Orange 100D, Green 50D) if you see shorts breaking up this 3 EMAS its not good and it could mean that we will go down more, but for not they got rejected and fall. Now the interesting Areas are on EMA50 and EMA100. Where BTC can get a Strong Bounce from 7000ish area, if it pass down EMA50, would mean have to wait 6000ish Area to bounce back from EMA100. The next bounce should push BTC around 9200. For the long term nothing to worry, this analyse is just based on 1D Timeframe. Happy Tr4Ding !
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTSLong
by thecryer
2
Evidence of a Short Movement on BITCOIN by ThinkingAntsOkToday we are going to provide the Technical Evidence that we collected that supports a Short view on the Short term on Bitcoin. Everybody should make their own analysis and then use other views to Complement or discard that analysis. Another important item is that our conclusion is purely based on price action and we do not take any other data from outside the chart. Let start: On the Weekly Chart the main items we observe are: A) Price has not made any significant correction on the last bullish movement that started in December 2018. B) Currently, the price is against a Resistance zone and a Reversal candlestick pattern has been made there. C)The Candlestick pattern that we observe is an "Evening Star". D) To Forecast the possible finalization of the correction we are waiting for. We used Fibo levels, there is a convergence between a Major Support Zone and the 50% Fibo level of the bullish movement, so, we will be looking that area for reversal movements IF the Hypothesis of the bearish movement starts, of course. Let's take a look on the Daily Chart: Main items we observe: A) Price has broken the ascending trendline B) Price is facing a Resistance Zone + a Minor descending Trendline. A convergence of this 2 levels working as resistance. 4HS Chart: A)The main item we can see on the 4HS chart, is a Wedge Pattern Formation, against the Resistance Zone that we mentioned previously B) Wedge pattern formations are considered reversal structures and show the weakness of the current trend ( You can check how divergences are formed on this structures if you look at them on the 15 minutes chart with MACD Histogram / RSI or similar indicators. Based on all the previous Technical Items that we mentioned we think that a Bearish movement should star on this zone with a possible target of 38.25% or 50% of the Previous Bullish Movement. If price surpasses the current resistance Zone on the Weekly chart we will cancel this Hypothesis of a short movement. *Please note that the above perspective is our view on the market, We do not give signals and take no responsibility for your trades.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by ThinkingAntsOk
Short Term UpdateIn the short term, daily chart, there is a congestion between the kama 20-periods and the first line of price deviation. I don't know where it will break but there remains a conflict between the monthly chart, with a confirmed bullish signal, and the weekly one where the bitcoin seems weak. This is why i'm not buying at market but i'll leave, at least for this month, the BUY STOP ORDER at 9100$. Kama v1.21 is out and public, to see this chart just add it on your template using these settings: BB dev 20 BB Periods 500 Length 20 Fastend 0.73 Slowend 0.0625 Show.Ind 1 checked Show.Ind 2 unchecked (check this if you want to decide by yourself the volatility level of the price bands defined by the Delta parameter, 0.03 for daily, 0.11 for monthly chart)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn30297