Bitcoin-short
Can BTC repeat June 26th high? MACD & RSI may prove it.If we take a look at the last two bull runs of June 26th and July 9th , the MACD and RSI have similarities to todays bull run. Sure, RSI is over bought but this was the same case as the June 26th bullrun. As you can see the MACD resembles the MACD as of now on the 4HR chart, which means it could push further upward. The RSI peaked at 92 on June 22nd, came down to 67 on June 23rd than resumed upward to a peak of 93 when Bitcoin hit a high of $13,800.
The Differences and Concerns
Todays bullrun has a steeper MACD cross, as well as the sell off is steeper than the July 9th sell before peaking. The same can be said about the June 22nd selling. It was minimal but continued upward shortly after. When comparing the last two peaks, it seems that it reached the peak shortly after a sell off. This case, the sell off is deeper and peak curve downward is steepening.
Next, if we look at the Histogram, it may point that the sell off has just begun. There are almost no points that show the histogram turning bullish again after a peak. After every peak, the histogram went down. Both of these point towards a deeper sell off, but anything can happen.
Back Above Daily KamaThe market is still flat although the bitcoin has managed to return above the Kama average in a position of strength after several weeks below it.
A break above the resistance zone (above 12200$) would confirm the recovery of the trend.
From tomorrow i'm on holiday, see you in September, there will be updates only in case of emergencies:)
Bitcoin will fall.We have failed multiple time to break free from this zone(resistance) and because of the lack of volume, i refuse to believe that we will continue to see an increase in the short term.
If we take a look at the Daily time frame we can clearly see the 20 ema shutting it down.
Take a look back, look at the big picture. Remember think about smart money.
Breaking out upwards would target 10000+Lots of people seem to wait for a deeper correction before a "clean start" up. I think BTCUSD will go against the masses and surprise us with a sudden spike up to above $10k in the coming days or less. After that it's still possible to get a deeper correction, but we'll see.
Fractal comparison for bitcoin, bear or bull? Bear!Hey, guys
Just a few minutes ago, bitcoin surge about 1000 USD from ~ 9200 to ~ 10400. lots of pain for bears, especially whom holding high leverage short contract.
But when I check the fractal for bitcoin, there is a pattern very similar to current chart, which happen in 11.Mar. 2018. The similarities are:
Double top in 4H time frame.
Bitcoin price break down the neck line of double top.
Bulls tried to break up the neck line, but failed, price drop again, but high low formed.
Price surge more than 1000 USD in very short time, and break up the neck line.
RSI indicator pattern, pls refer to the chart, it explained itself.
This activity (break up neck line suddenly) is try to liquid all of short contract or short holding. since large short holding are the resistance for drop(shorter will buy back in the lower price, buy activity is the resistance for shorter itself) . In traditional trading, most of shorter will open short contract after the price break down neck line, and set stop loss above the neck line. This is also the difference between traditional trading and crypto currency trading, how to beat the market always an art to learn in lifetime. Keep patience!
Pattern fail scenario : when price break up ~ 11300 with decent volume. if that happen, I will liquid the left of my short position which from ~ 12000.
Success pattern : price drop below neck line again ~ 9700, that means bleeding for longer incoming.
This thread just an interesting comparison base on my observation, not a trading suggestion. If you thought it's interesting, pls give me a like, many thanks!
Kama Trading System v1.2 updateThe short trade of the previous update has been closed at even without losses, another short trade closed right now at profit.
The exit logic is simple, in case of a short trade the exit point is the perforation of the first support area, in a long trade at the breakout
of the first resistance zone. Same for the entry, when price crosses above the support level there is a buy, instead with a cross below the resistance zone there is a short sell.
In a couple of weeks, if it'll continue to perform well, i'll publish it.