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BTC, Main Fibonacci-Channel, How The CME-GAP At 49250 Can Fill!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin, we are looking at the monthly timeframe perspectives. In this analysis I am looking at the broader picture Bitcoin is forming and as I discovered recently Bitcoin in the previously developed bearish pullbacks to the downside moved into significant levels and also formed a decisive structure that can be fuel for the upcoming volatilities ahead of the next times. As already mentioned in the former analysis Bitcoin not only on the 4-hour timeframe perspective is in a Wyckoff accumulation but also forms a potential upcoming Hash-Ribbons Buy-Signal. In this analysis now I am looking at the main Fibonacci-channel structure in combination with the CME-GAP that has developed in the bearish pullbacks and did not yet fill. Especially in the last months since the beginning of 2021 the Volume of Bitcoin-Futures has substantially increased and reached its peaks at the bullish upthrusts before the markdown followed. Therefore the CME-GAP has even a higher ranking when considering this Bitcoin-Futures Volume increase and the market-movements resulting out of it. In Bitcoin bearish developments to the downside from the 59800 to the 30000 level this major CME Breakaway GAP has formed in the downtrend. In the graphic below I show the CME-GAP. CME-GAP At The 49250 Level: In Bitcoins past price-actions and developments such CME-GAPS where a very profound indication for the case that Bitcoin minimum when reversed reaches this CME-GAP level to fill the gap. This is also possible here due to several factors and especially because Bitcoin recently reached this major 50%-61.8% Fibonacci channel which was previously resistance and is now support. Bitcoin also has formed other signs that a bounce to the gap is likely to come up within the next times, therefore a gap-fill in upcoming times can be expected when Bitcoin moves on with the determinations. In terms of the gap-fill and Fibonacci structure, this does not mean Bitcoin is completely 100% bullish however it is a step in the right direction especially when Bitcoin manages to mark above the gap-level after the gap-fill happened. High Potential Bounce Of The Fibonacci-Channel-Support-Zone In Alignment To Fill The Gap: Now in consideration of the major CME-GAP that has formed here and in terms of this whole monthly timeframe perspective Bitcoin recently reached this 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci-support-channel that is marked in my chart in orange, it is the Fibonacci-support-channel of the broader Fibonacci-ascending-channel that has its lows at the December 2018 bear-market-bottom as well as the March 2020 corona-breakdowns and has its high at the April 2021 all-time-high. Together with the 12-MA marked in my chart in blue this 50%-61.8% Fibonacci-channel in orange builds strong support as this channel was resistance before and therefore is a bounce from this level highly likely in the upcoming times. Therefore when this bounce develops and Bitcoin moves on with an increase of bullish price-action this will likely fill the CME-GAP in the structure. What Happens After The Gap Is Filled: Once the gap is filled as mentioned under the given circumstances this can lead to an initial pullback after the gap is filled and Bitcoin will seek to test the lower supports in the structure. When these supports hold sustainably it can be the source of a bounce and especially after that when Bitcoin manages an increase in bullish price-action when the supports holding sustainably a bounce above the CME-GAP level and a stabilization in this zone as I show in my analysis with the writings can indicate a set up for the main Fibonacci-channel-breakout when Bitcoin manages to stay in these zones. For now, it will be important to keep patient and elevate how Bitcoin can continue ahead of the upcoming times to move on and fill the CME-GAP to show up with the further developments. Will be especially important how Bitcoin manages to approach these zones and how the structure will look like after this. In this manner, thank you for watching my analysis about BITCOIN and its Ascending-Fibonnaci-Channel Structure in relation to the CME-GAP filling that is likely to come up, will be great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best! Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
27
BITCOIN, Massive HASH-RIBBON Buy Signal Incoming The NEXT TIMES!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin and its Hash-Ribbon-Structure I recently detected, which is playing an important role in the current movements especially with upcoming price-actions this can lead to a new historical has-ribbon-signal as it was already similarly seen 15 times in Bitcoins past historical price-developments. As Bitcoin in recent times showed up with heavy declines in the structure the regulatory landscape altered and some countries such as China decided to shut down mining completely and ban Bitcoin mining, while there are other countries and governments who are massively regulating exchanges. In this analysis, I will examine the aspect of decreased mining activity resulting out of such measures that are actively affecting the hash rate and the mining capitulation which is the underlying factor in the hash-ribbon indicator I am presenting today. In technical analysis the best thing is to combine different technical aspects and come up with a final conclusion besides that it is always extremely necessary to keep a clear head and do not take an idealistic view on the market as it is happening oftentimes, this just plays into the hands of the smart money operators and market makers pushing the prices up and down and taking advantage of these gaps in the developments and trapping traders in the market. Therefore, as a sophisticated trader, it is necessary to think in both directions to wage the proper determinations and come up with a final decision rather than over-speculating the market into a one-sighted approach. The Hash-Ribbon-Indicator: The hash-ribbon-indicator seen in my charts consists of 3 important technical elements. The first is the hash rate, the hash rate is the amount of computing power which miners are putting into the Bitcoin network to mine Bitcoins. When the hash rate is falling this means that fewer miners are mining Bitcoin within the Bitcoin network and therefore the competition to mine Bitcoins is falling and in the hash-ribbon-indicator, this hash-rate is represented by the different dots (First graphic below). The second element is the hash-ribbons moving-averages consisting of the 30-day hash-ribbon moving-average marked in green and the 60-day hash-ribbon moving-average marked in grey, when the 30-day crosses below the 60-day this means miner capitulation settled and the miners mining Bitcoin decreases as well as the hash-rate decreases while it is the reverse when it crosses above. The third element is the decisive one in the whole structure as it actually marks the final buy-signal with the blue dot, this is when the 10-MA marked in my chart in green crosses above the 20-MA marked in my chart in red which showed the final bulls-signal already in past price-actions combined with the increased mining activity, in this case, it is important that the 10-MA holds above the 20-MA and do not forms a cross-back. In the graphics below I show these elements in action and how they are defined. Hash-Ribbon Development-Phases Explained: In this first graphic, you can see the already mentioned elements in the hash-ribbon-indicator explained. With the different stages in the declining to rising hash rate reaching from the actual miner capitulation to the final increasing in miner activity till the buy signal is developed marked with the dots in a different color. What is important is also the stages in the hash-ribbons moving averages as well as the price-action moving averages. One Example With The Stages-Examinations Out Of The 15 Historical Hash-Ribbon-Signals: In this second graphic, you can see how the hash-ribbon signal exactly indicated the ongoing expansion phase. Beginning in May 2020 the miners capitulated resulting in the decreasing hash rate and the incoming grey dot, after that, the hash rate declined further till mining activity increased again, and on the 23rd June reached a level in which the mining activity moved into normal levels again. This held till the final buy signal emerged at 12 July 2020 with the 10-MA finally crossing above the 20-MA and holding above it with no cross-back. The Present Ongoing Hash-Ribbon-Signal-Phase With The Important Structures To Consider Currently: As seen in the third graphic now Bitcoin is in the next historical hash-ribbon-signal-phase and what is significant in this phase is that the mining activity severely recovered in the past times till the next declines in mining activity followed up, this can be contributed to the fact that China shutdown on Bitcoin mining and that in this case, the closing of mining activity came in waves similar to the other regulatory measurements in other countries as well affecting the Bitcoin mining contribution. Besides that, the several continued increases in mining activity also indicate an increased demand for mining during the volatility. Now Bitcoin is still in the miner capitulation phase with a declining hash rate as it is shown in my chart, this can possibly change in the upcoming times when mining activity increases again as the miners that left China building up their mining activity in more supportive places the mining activity and therefore hash rate can rise again similarly as it was in the past with this major hash-ribbon-signal. What We Should Consider Now: In past price-actions it was always often seen that the hash rate and mining difficulty decreased moving into the hash-ribbon-signal-phase as explained, this was also the case with the declines seen in the last times and especially fueled by countries such as China shutting down on Bitcoin mining. The miners that leaving China now will settle into other countries where the mining activity will increase again, it was already reported that many moved into the US in states such as texas with a supportive Bitcoin Mining Policy. Taking this into the consideration and especially with the other technical factors I already mentioned in the previous analysis it is likely that mining activity will increase again in the next times pointing to the green dot in the hash-ribbons indicator. Furthermore, Bitcoin on the weekly is developing this main declining bearish momentum which is an increased reversal sign. These factors can be fuel for the next hash-ribbon signal. In this manner, thank you for watching my analysis about BITCOIN and the meaningful importance of its Hash-Ribbon-Indicator-Structure, have a great day as well as the weekend, will be great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best! Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
36
Bitcoin, More Likely Breakout Developed, Further Determinations!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this Update-Analysis about Bitcoin on the 4-hour timeframe perspective. As expected Bitcoin now finally moved on with the more likely breakout above the upper-boundary to initially test the main ascending-trend-line in black and pull-back from there to confirm the breakout now which was expected. If you did not see this analysis already I highly recommend it to watch as this analysis is building a coherent follow-up to the previous one. The formational structure Bitcoin developed here gets very interesting shapes and as the more possible breakout above the boundary now emerged as suggested I detected further signs that will be decisive for Bitcoin in the upcoming developments. Structural Development: As when looking at my chart now Bitcoin rightly formed the breakout above the upper-boundary of the descending-channel-formation marked with the blue circle, after that Bitcoin moved on and tested the upper-boundary of the ascending-trend-line from where it pulled back as supply still remained in this zone price-action moved on and is now testing the upper-boundary where the previous breakout emerged. Overall the breakout above the upper boundary was the setup now for potential further continuations however therefore it is necessary that Bitcoin manages to build up further strength in this structure and complete a possible continuation-formation from where it can show the determined continuations. Upcoming Determinations: This formation can move into the shape of a similar formation like a symmetrical wedge as it is marked in my chart with the coherent wave-count within. After that when Bitcoin manages to complete such a formation in the structure and form a breakout above its upper-boundary to close there this will lead to further testing of the remaining upper-resistance. For now, it is highly important to elevate how Bitcoin develops here as this formation can also still invalidate and Bitcoin moving on to test lower level nevertheless it is necessary to do not rush into set conclusions and overspeculate the market into a one-sighted direction before further information about the continued directions is given. In this manner, thank you for watching my Update-Analysis about BITCOIN and what to expect after this more likely main upside-channel-breakout has finally shown up; will be great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best! "The past, like the future, is indefinite and exists only as a spectrum of possibilities." Information is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by VincePrince
31
BTC Bounce Of 2-Year Old Line Indicates Potential Dynamic-Shift!Hello Traders Investors And Community, As Bitcoin, the last times moved on within the local range between 29500 and 40500 I detected some very interesting structures Bitcoin is developing here on the 2-day timeframe perspectives. As already mentioned in the former analysis that I upload yesterday Bitcoin on the 4-hour timeframe perspectives had the higher possibility to break out of its local channel to the upside which now happened as expected and as this moved on Bitcoin has a higher possibility to continue with the bullish alignment firstly on the 4-hour timeframe when it also manages to break out above this crucial ascending-trend-line, if you did not see this analysis already I highly recommend it to watch as this analysis now is coherently following-up on it on the more global 2-day timeframe. When looking at my chart now we can watch there how Bitcoin has developed this major ascending-channel-formation marked with the boundaries in black and drawn from the low of December 2018 to the high of the bullish developments in June 2018 till the breakout happened in December 2020 after which Bitcoin showed up with further heavy spread and volatility to the upside till the preliminary high was formed at 64800 before Bitcoin heavily pulled back and moved on to test the lower levels in the structure, and especially here comes the interesting part as Bitcoin has strong support within the upper-boundary of this giant channel it recently managed to bounce from this almost 2-year ascending upper-boundary. Bitcoin not only has the 2-year old ascending upper-boundary trend-line where it bounced recently initially but also the decisive 200-EMA which is marked in my chart in blue, together with the trendline this zone around the 30300 level has built a solid confluence-zone and the bounce from this zone is indicating that Bitcoin has the ability to move on to test further structures at the upside. The first important resistance, in this case, is the 100-EMA which is marked in red in my chart, when Bitcoin moves into it will either result in a pullback or Bitcoin will have the ability to stabilize in this zone to set up and breakout above the 100-EMA. Such a breakout will lead to Bitcoin increasing bullishness further and the main remaining structural resistance which is marked in red will be tested. If Bitcoin has the ability to increase the demand in such a way that the further tests in the structure as seen marked in my chart will not be an issue this does automatically mean Bitcoin is completely bullish from that point on as especially when it moves into the strong remaining resistance zone a more increased bearish pullback can still take place which should not be underestimated however Bitcoin with the upper-boundary of its massive ascending-channel has still serious support overall in this structure from where it can built up, how Bitcoin moves into these zones need to be seen then after Bitcoin has shown the proper capability to test these significant resistances. In this manner, thank you for watching my analysis about BITCOIN and the decisive bounce from the 2 year old trendline to how this will affect the upcoming destinations, will be great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best! Information is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
17
Bitcoin, Channel Breakout Emerges When This Scenario Validates!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin, we are looking at the 4-hour timeframe perspectives. As already mentioned in previous analysis Bitcoin has a higher potential possibility given to move on testing important remaining resistance-zones that rely in the structure. In this case now on the more local timeframe perspective I discovered an interesting structure forming here from which Bitcoin has the ability to build up and validate this scenario as the bearish scenario possibility is still there however it is definitely smaller than the bullish scenario possibility. Therefore I detected the important levels and what we should consider with Bitcoin within the upcoming times. Structural Developments: As when looking at my chart we can watch there how Bitcoin has formed this massive descending-channel-formation marked in my chart with the blue boundaries. Within this channel Bitcoin recently bounced in the lower boundary and is now forming this neutral decision-zone between the upper and the lower boundary from where it will form a breakout sooner or later. Basically, there are two possible scenarios for a breakout, the first is that Bitcoin increases with demand in the structure and manages a breakout to the upside leading into the bullish-development-zone and the second is Bitcoin continuation with bearish pressure moving into the bearish-continuation-zone, as the market is oversold now the bullish case has a higher possibility by 60%. Upcoming Perspectives: Now as a bullish breakout has somewhat of a higher possibility this does not mean that as a trader we should just rush into the market and expect the wishful scenario to happen, in these cases, it is always important to keep patient and wait for the right confirmation before moving into the market. Bearing this in mind it is necessary to elevate either the bullish breakout with a final close above the upper boundary or the bearish breakout with the close below the local ascending-trend line which is within the descending channel. After these assumptions have been made the further determinations can be objected and planning in this direction can happen appropriately. It will be an important development ahead. In this manner, thank you for watching my analysis about BITCOIN and its current channel structure with the likely scenarios to expect in the upcoming times, will be great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best! Information is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by VincePrince
25
BITCOIN (BTCUSD) – Week 26 – Support decision?Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Twitter and Square, has teamed up with other bitcoiners to form what appears to be an anti-misinformation movement. He'll be joined by Ark's Cathie Wood, the queen of innovative investing, and Adam Back, a veteran of bitcoin's 2016 civil war. The B word, as they call it, is a “Bitcoin-focused project that attempts to demystify and destigmatize conventional narratives about Bitcoin, explain how institutions can and should embrace it, and create awareness around parts of the network that need support,” according to their description. The founders of South Africa’s largest cryptocurrency exchange have vanished, along with nearly $3.6 billion in Bitcoin, after telling investors the exchange had been hacked. A law firm hired by impacted investors in Cape Town claims it is unable to locate Africrypt founders Ameer and Raees Cajee. The company has sent a warning to crypto exchanges throughout the world, warning them to be wary of anyone attempting to sell the digital currency on its platforms. President Bukele said nothing can stop Bitcoin from seeing widespread adoption in El Salvador, and he sees no scenario in which it can be stopped. Also, El Salvador is going to airdrop $30 worth of Bitcoin to every adult citizen, President Nayib Bukele announced Friday during his live address. Bukele presented a Bitcoin wallet named “Chivo” (a slang term for “cool” in Spanish) that works on both Android and iOS devices. Technically, Bitcoin hit the important support area marked on the chart on Tuesday and bounced back up. Although, the bullish move had some momentum in the beginning, the move didn’t break the red trendline marked on the chart and ultimately it started reversing towards the direction of the bigger trend. For this pair we see the down move to continue, at least until the support area is reached again. After that we shall see if the price consolidates for more downside or reverses to go towards the trendline. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by financialflagship
Bitcoin, Local Bull-Flag-Formation, Upcoming Perspectives!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin, we are looking at the hourly timeframe perspectives. As already mentioned in the previous analysis Bitcoin on the more global perspectives has developed this main descending-channel-formation in which it is likely to follow up with the testing of the upper boundary, if you did not see this analysis already I highly recommend it to watch as this one is building coherently upon it. As when looking at my chart now we can watch there how Bitcoin has developed this initial channel-formation on the hourly timeframe perspectives. Within this channel Bitcoin has the coherent wave-count and the waves A to B already completed within this channel, the next minor wave C remains which will complete the wave-count within the channel, this development will also be part of the major wave-count therefore the minor wave-count will form the major wave B in the structure. Basically, there are two potential zones in which Bitcoin can bounce here, firstly it is the 25-EMA in red and the 100-EMA in green or Bitcoin bounces within the lower boundary. When Bitcoin then manages to breakout above the upper boundary of the channel it will complete the formation as a bull flag and activate upside targets marked in my chart in blue within the 38300 levels that will be pointed in the upcoming times after confirmation. Taking all these factors into consideration now it will be the smartest to wait on the final validation when Bitcoin shows up with the breakout above the upper boundary, this is a better option compared to just rushing into the market as it is seen often these times. After the formation completed and Bitcoin moves into the suspected target zone it needs to be elevated how it reacts to it and if there comes a continuation of bullishness or Bitcoin firstly pulls back which is not unlikely in this case. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, will be great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best! “The greatest enlightenment comes, when the market realizes its infinite nature.” Information is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by VincePrince
7
Bitcoin, Test Of The Descending-Channel Upper-Boundary Incoming!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin, we are looking at the 4-hour timeframe perspectives. Bitcoin for a longer time now remains in this lower range which I mentioned already before can be a potential preliminary bottom in the structure from where Bitcoin has the ability to build up. As I discovered now Bitcoin has completed some interesting price-actions form where it has the ability to show up with further volatility in the structure firstly testing remaining resistances and important levels of the formation. Structural Developments: As when looking at my chart we can watch there how Bitcoin has developed this main descending-channel-formation in its structure with the boundaries marked in black. Within this formation, Bitcoin has the coherent wave-count from A to E almost already completed within the schedule and now bounced initially in the lower boundary firstly moving on to test the 35-EMA in the structure marked in green. What Bitcoin has done here mainly, is showing up with an initial base from where it can move on to test the upper remaining zones especially as Bitcoin has developed this swift price-action after moving below the 29750 levels this converted into a reliable bear-trap which can be the source of great ongoing volatilities ahead of next times. Upcoming Determinations: Taking all these factors into the consideration, what will be likely here in the upcoming times is Bitcoin developing the upthrust price-action as expected and moving on to test this main distribution-zone marked in my chart in blue. Actually, this will be crucial as the dynamics after this will be decisive with Bitcoin either pulling back or moving through this level immediate, what is more, possible in this case then is that Bitcoin firstly pulls back in the structure testing lower levels in the channel before stabilizing and backing up to continue with the previously developed dynamics. For now, it will be important to elevate how strong Bitcoin approaches these zones and how it develops after this, it will be an interesting journey ahead. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day, and all the best! "Good luck is when opportunity meets preparation." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by VincePrince
20
BTCs Magic Mining-Difficulty-Cycles And The Current One!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin in which I want to look at the weekly timeframe and as I recently discovered Bitcoin not only has the underlying halving-cycles that determine important price-action-patterns in the market but also the main mining-difficulty-cycle which is repeating every 200000 blocks when the mining difficulty reaches its peaks. There is a very precise similarity within these cycles with some deviations and compared to the current situation Bitcoin is in the middle of this repeating cycle. As I discovered there are simultaneous processes within Bitcoins price-action and the rising mining-difficulty which is always set to 0 after 200000 blocks are mined, together with this there is also a present correlation with the historical halvings. The Mining-Difficulty-Cycle-Phases: As seen already in the past with the developed mining-difficulty-cycles marked in my chart with the letters A and B there are three main phases in which the mining-difficulty-cycle can be separated. The first is the accumulation phase reaching from the blocks mined 0 to the average blocks mined of 65000, in this phase the price-action remains in this lower channel of the major price-action-cycle, in this lower channel Bitcoin accumulates before the further phase establishes. The second phase is the expansion phase and what is amazing here is that the historical halvings actually mark the starting of this phase at around 65000 blocks mined, in this phase, the bullish price-actions heavily expand and new highs establish with increased volume and volatility to the upside. The last phase then is the contraction-phase in which a new peak is established at around 135000 blocks mined before a markdown begins and bearish price-action settles till the total blocks mined reaches the total 200000 which also marked the main bottoms in 2015 and 2018 before the mining-difficulty set to 0 and the cycle repeats. Mining-Difficulty-Cycles Separated and Fractaled: - In this chart above are the three mining-difficulty-cycles displayed in separated and fractal windows. It shows the similarity within the two already completed cycles with the phases in the market-cycles similar to the actual bitcoins mined and mining difficulty. In the third cycle is also shown how the historical halving event affected the cycle and as for now, the current cycle is also repeating similarly to the previous ones. There are now around 50000 blocks of bitcoin remaining till the cycle theoretically ends. Comparison To The Current Mining-Difficulty-Cycle And Upcoming Perspectives: Taking all these factors into consideration now there is a clear underlying mining-difficulty-cycle in which the number of bitcoin blocks mined determines the current market-trend-phase and how further developments establish. In the current mining-difficulty-cycle, there are around 135000 blocks already mined and Bitcoin so far followed the magic patterns of the previous cycles with the accumulation phase and the expansion phase triggered by the halving. This means that when the block amount mined further increases the cycle will come to an end and also the price-action can develop in terms of a potential change in direction. When looking at the mining-difficulty-cycles of the past it is likely that the actual contraction phase already set in and the peak was reached, on the other side there is the possibility given that there comes a last upthrust before the cycle moves into the contraction phase however this does not necessarily need to happen as the blocks mined amount already reached the average peak amount of the previous cycles. Therefore the possibility that Bitcoin is already in the contraction phase and that there is more to come should not be underestimated especially after the heavy sell-outs the empirical contraction-phase similarly to the past cycles could be given already. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day, and all the best! Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
43
Bitcoin, Main Upper-Resistance Awaiting To Be Tested!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin in which we will look at the daily timeframe perspectives. Bitcoin moved into a decisive zone where the final conclusions still awaiting. In this structure, there are some important signs I detected that will be determining factors in the upcoming times. Structural Developments: Bitcoin now severely tested the 30.000 USD level as support and still bounced from this zone however it is also an important bullish reference zone to hold because with a breakout below this zone Bitcoin will likely see lower values in the upcoming times. Now as this support is still holding and Bitcoin remains in this correctional shape it is likely that a bounce to the upside from this zone can show up that will firstly move above the established range and its resistance at the 40200 to 40900 level to move up higher from there and test further levels which will be crucial as already mentioned in previous analysis Bitcoin still has strong resistances lying in these zones which will likely show up with a pullback when moved into. Upcoming Determinations: Taking all these factors into the consideration now it will be important to elevate how Bitcoin approaches further here from the structure especially from the established initial support base. When Bitcoin continues to build up and manages to sustainably develop above the 37800 levels this will be the origin for the further continuations, however, when Bitcoin moves on the main resistance-cluster marked in red will be tested before the pullback will establish. The main question after that is how Bitcoin approaches the lower zones of support again so especially this ascending-trend-line from where it now bounced these several times. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day as well as weekend, and all the best to you! "The high destiny of the market is to explicate rather than to speculate." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
11
BTC UpdateBTC is now trading in a downtrend channel on smaller time frames. BTC need to break this downtrend channel and stable above $36,100 to turn bullish. BTC is now at support of $34,000 area and a break below this will again lead us to $33,000 area. BTC is trading in the range of $30,000 to $40,000 and need to break $42,000 and hold above it for a good rally. A break below $30,000 will turn the market bearish and we may see mid-term bear market. No need to worry until BTC trading above $30,000. Also there are big buyers waiting around $30,000 area. We will see more consolidation in this range before a breakout. If you liked my idea, follow me for more
by MonoCoinSignal
CAUTION! This FRACTAL Can Shift BTC In A New Bear-Market Again!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin, we are looking at the weekly timeframe perspectives. It is always necessary when participating in financial markets such as Bitcoin to elevate what is possible and what is not possible. Besides that when dynamics tend to change and a new direction can emerge it is important to rightly prepare on these possibilities to do exclude others when further developments tend to follow into this direction. In this case, I discovered a highly important fractal that already completed three times and all three times was the origin of bear-markets and heavy bearish establishments to the downside. At the moment and with the recent developments Bitcoin has started to form this fractal again and therefore the possibility of the further finalization of this fractal structure should not be kept by side. Fractal Phases Till The Final Bearish Mark-Down: The fractal is mainly divided into four phases reaching from A to D till the final bearish confirmation has shown up. These phases remained in all three past fractals the same as it is shown in my chart. In the phase, A Bitcoin forms a new preliminary high with widespread and volume before first pullbacks move into and bearishness initially is the source of a pullback. In phase B the previously established pullback continues and Bitcoin moves on to test the crucial 55-EMA in the structure marked in red in my chart. In phase C the 55-EMA firstly holds and Bitcoins shows up with somewhat of a weak rally that moves directly into the 61.8% Fibonacci-Retracement where Bitcoin rejects and pulls back to move on testing the 55-EMA anew, in this phase the 61.8% Fibonacci-rejection marked already a significant turning point. The final phase then happens with phase D as Bitcoin has not the ability anymore to hold the 55-EMA sufficiently and in case that falls below it which marks further bearish continuations to the downside and the final bear-market signal. Comparison To The Current Structure And What Are Important Factors Upcoming: In consideration of this crucial fractal structure and in comparison to the developments shown up within the last weeks Bitcoin already initiated phase A by pulling back from the 64000 USD level to show up with these bearish developments exactly like it was already seen in the fractals before and now Bitcoin already moved on to test the 55-EMA in the structure where it somewhat bounced weakly. What would follow up in the structure now is phase C in which Bitcoin moves on to the 61.8% Fibonacci-retracement and gets rejected which is not unlikely in this case and can happen within the next times as Bitcoin is not showing really bullish strength here. When this phase C possibly shows up in the next times and Bitcoin gets rejected from the Fibonacci-level the phase D is not far away, in this case, it is the same as within the previous fractals already completed when Bitcoin finally closes below the 55-EMA this will be the final confirmation and origin for the bear-market markdowns as already seen before. In this manner, as shown up now Bitcoin is in a highly decisive situation where it is important to elevate how Bitcoin develops here, as the two main phases already set-up it should not be kept from the desk that the further phases can develop samely as it was already seen with the previous fractals. In fact, Bitcoin already showed bullish weakening developments and not yet has confirmed an increased bullish stabilization which can lead to further highs. Therefore it will be necessary how Bitcoin develops further here in the next times and especially how it approaches the main 61.8% Fibonacci-retracement which can be the determining factor here. As traders, it is best to prepare on such changing conditions to when they happen take proper action accordingly. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day as well as weekend, and all the best to you! "The past is a reasonable template for present and future occurences." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
38
BITCOIN (BTCUSD) – Week 25 – Nothing clearParaguay’s Deputy of the Nation, Carlos Antonio Rejala Helman, has confirmed that new legislation in regards to Bitcoin will arrive in July. This comes amid growing adoption in Latin America led by El Salvador, which could be followed by Panama as well. With Bitcoin (BTC) mining concentrations increasing in North America, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez wants to make his city a crypto mining hotspot. Mayor Suarez told CNBC on Thursday that he has invited global mining firms to explore setting up data centers in the area. According to Suarez, Miami's abundant nuclear electricity supply could entice Bitcoin miners wanting to switch to clean energy sources for their operations, particularly given the current focus on crypto mining's alleged carbon impact. In other news, according to a recent press release, BBVA, Spain's second biggest bank, is now offering its first cryptocurrency trading and custody service to all of its private customers in Switzerland. The bank will start with Bitcoin trading and custodial services, possibly expanding the list of digital assets in the future. Technically, Bitcoin is still moving in the range created by the resistance and support areas. In the short term any move up or down is 50%-50% in our opinion. Once the price reaches a certain area of S/R then we must study the structure and decide if it’s going to break the range or continue to trade in it. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by financialflagship
2
Using Risk Management to Not Lose Money Risk Management In this article we are going to talk about the most exciting topic of risk management! Sarcasm aside, this is probably the single most important lesson that any trader or investor can ever learn. Warren Buffett famously said: "Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1." So, if it is good enough for the most successful investor of all time, it is good enough to write a post about. Now, this quote does not apply to every single trade; no one trades without taking losses. But this is more about mindset, how to strategize, and your performance overall. In fact, with what you are about to learn, you will see that it is actually possible to lose more trades than you win while STILL being a profitable trader. We will get to the actual math/strategy in a moment. First, a short word about psychology. Nothing makes a trader lose more money than not having a well thought out plan or not sticking to it. We need to make our strategy first so that we can do it logically, and without emotion. This is easier to do beforehand because we haven’t actually put any money in the market yet. So, what is it that we need to know? What is my total account size? What am I willing to lose per trade? What is my Stop Loss? What is my Position Size? What is my Risk to Reward Ratio? If you cannot answer these questions then it is not a good idea to click the “buy” button! Unless you just want to gamble and throw money away. Question 1 - What is my total account size? Probably the easiest question for you to answer. Account size is the amount of money that you have in the market. Personally, I like to split my total account size into two parts. One part for longer term HODLing. One part for short-mid term swing trading. For my calculations, I forget about the HODL account and only look at the money in the trading account. I personally do not day trade. If I get into a position, I expect to be in it for 1-4 weeks. Obviously, this rule is flexible based on market conditions. Question 2 - What am I willing to lose per trade? This one is a bit more subjective because it comes down to how risk averse you are. It is generally accepted that you should risk between 1-5% of your account per trade. For me, anything above 3% is higher than I like, so I stick to 1-2% and sometimes 3. So, if you have a trading account of $10,000 and you want to risk 1%, you are risking $100: $10,000 x .01 = $100 To be clear – Risking 1% of your account does NOT mean using 1% of your account each trade. You are not spending $100 on each trade. Risk =/= position size. Risking 1% means that if your Stop Loss gets hit you lose $100. Question 3 - What is my Stop Loss? Firstly, what is a Stop Loss? A Stop Loss is an order that is placed to automatically close you out of a position should the price be hit. You should place your Stop Loss order right after you open your position. This is also a good time to place another order to close out your position at your target price. But where do you put the Stop Loss? A Stop Loss is best placed at a price that invalidates the reason you got into the trade in the first place. Sometimes this is, very creatively, called the “Invalidation Level”. For example, if you are trading a breakout to the upside, and then the price of your crypto shoots down in the other direction past your support levels, it is no longer a breakout and you should exit the position. To restate this in a different way, this level should not be arbitrary. There is no reason to automatically put your Stop Loss at 6.7138%, or any other random number, of your entry. The level you chose should be based on Technical Indicators; like a base of support, a Fibonacci level, or a previous high. This is because the market does not care about your arbitrary values. The market is made up of people and whales (who, believe it or not, are also people), and they, the ‘Market’, care about TA. Here is another example of a more short term trade to the downside. You could be more aggressive with the Price Target considering the resistance was so weak, but this is just an example to illustrate my point. (MACD looks nice there too. Learn more about that HERE ) Question 4 - What is my position size? In order to calculate position size we need to know a two different things: Risk Per Trade - 1 to 5% Distance from entry to the Stop Loss in percentage terms So the equation is Position Size = (Total Trading Account Size X Risk Percentage)/Distance to Stop Loss from entry For example, if you have a $10,000 account and you want to risk 2% while your Stop Loss is 10% away from your entry: ($10,000 X .02)/.1 = $2,000 Position Size while only risking $200. One thing to note here is that the closer your Stop Loss is to your entry, the larger Position Size you can trade with. So if you move the stop up to 5% away from your entry: ($10,000 X .02)/.05 = $4,000 Position Size while still only risking $200. Naturally, a larger position gives you more potential profit. (Don’t take this to mean use margin. I personally don’t use margin for Crypto and would recommend that most people don’t either.) Now that we have the position size, we should determine if the trade is worth getting into by finding your Risk to Reward Ratio. Question 5 - What is My Risk to Reward Ratio? The Risk Reward Ratio, sometimes simply known as R, is the ratio between your potential profit and potential loss. Reward/Risk = R So if you open a position where you can potentially lose $100, and you can potentially profit $300, then your trade has an R of 3. If you click on the Long or Short Position button in TradingView, you can move the sliders up and down and see what your R will be in real time. Double clicking on this will take you to the settings where you can input exact values. Since you set your Stop Loss at a logical point, one based on TA and not a whim, you should do the same with your Price Target. So why is having a high and, more importantly, realistic R a good thing? Because then you can actually lose MORE trades than you win and STILL be profitable. If you know your average R you can easily calculate the minimum win rate you must have to stay profitable over the long term: (1 / (1+R)) X 100 Let’s say your average R per trade is 2.5: (1/(1+2.5)) X 100 = 28.5% Meaning that you only need to win 28.5% of the time to not lose money overall. Because of the nature of this equation as your R increases, your required winrate to stay profitable decreases. Final Thoughts So, now that you have asked yourself, and have answered, the five big questions you are ready to open a trade. Remember why we do this. We should not expect to win every trade. But you must set yourself up so that when you do lose there is minimal damage to your account. Understanding the basics of Risk Management is the tool you need to keep your losses small, and account intact. Please let me know if you have any questions and if you like it, please hit the thumbs up and be sure to follow for more! Links to my Fibonacci Retracement, RSI, and MACD guides are below. Give them a read for more information!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by zsamochin
52
Bitcoin, Massive Triangle-Formation, Upcoming Determinations!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin, we are looking at the 12-hour timeframe perspectives. As already mentioned in the former analysis Bitcoin managed the breakout above the upper boundary of its descending channel and is now setting up for a continuation in this manner above the descending dashed trend lines seen in my chart. Taking this into consideration Bitcoin will form the major wave B in the structure that will run directly into the remaining upper-resistance cluster marked in blue from where a pullback is highly likely and should be expected. This pullback then will be the origin of wave C in the wave-count finalizing it and moving into the lower decision-cluster marked in orange from where the final conclusions will show up either with a bullish or bearish breakout. For now, the bullish breakout has a higher possibility of 65% compared to the bearish however it is necessary to elevate how Bitcoin develops further here before rushing into final terminations as the possibilities can change also again. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day, and all the best to you! "There are many roads to prosperity, but one must be taken." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by VincePrince
7
Bitcoin, Dedicated Breakout Ahead To Test Main 49K Resistance!Hello Traders Investors And Community, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin, we are looking at the 6-hour timeframe perspectives. Bitcoin recently made an important move above the 40.000 USD mark as bullish volatility increased besides I discovered further important things that will determine Bitcoins developments in the upcoming times. With the move above the 40.000 USD level Bitcoin also managed to break out above this local descending-channel and what is more significant also above the 100-EMA playing an underlying role as it was previously resistant and is now support, all these factors coming together and adding up to the conclusion that Bitcoin will continue with the further bullish continuation especially with a dedicated breakout above the upper boundary of the massive descending-channel-formation and when this happens the main 49.000 USD resistance will be pointed. Taking these factors into the consideration and when Bitcoin shows up with the bullish breakout the next times it is likely then that Bitcoin firstly pulls back in the resistance as there is still a lot of supply lying. When this happens Bitcoin will move on to test the lower levels of support in the structure determined by the ascending-trend-line and the dynamic-support remaining there in blue, what is necessary then is that Bitcoin really holds this level and when it does it can convert into a further back-up and continuation movements otherwise when this does not happen Bitcoin can also increase bearishness below again. From a trading perspective, it is necessary to keep the patience and elevate how Bitcoin moves forward before rushing into trades otherwise it is also possible to take up more range trading as we already managed in the channel taking some solid profits. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support the idea with a like and follow or comment, have a good day, and all the best to you! "Genius is eternal patience." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by VincePrince
8
Bitcoin-Update, Initial Move Above, Scenarios Important Now!Hi, Welcome to this update-analysis about Bitcoin, we are looking at the 2-hour timeframe perspectives, the recent events, the established formational structures, and what are likely scenarios to expect within the upcoming times. Since the recent analysis Bitcoin managed to move on with the initial bullishness as expected and develop this main wave E to test the upper ranges of the channel formation. Now it is highly important for Bitcoin to hold this zone and do not fall below the previous resistance again to hold this as support because when this happens and Bitcoin pulls back below this will invalidate the bullishness firstly and Bitcoin will minimum test lower levels in the structure. When Bitcoin now holds this triangular shape and builds up within this can lead to the right breakout which will be finally confirmed with Bitcoin breaking out above the upper boundary and closing there to move on further. For now, this scenario has a greater possibility nevertheless it is highly important to wait for the final confirmation before moving into the rightly confirmed direction, it will be an important development ahead. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis and great contentment for everybody supporting, all the best! "Trading effectively is about assessing possibilities, not certainties." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by VincePrince
5