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Bitcoin-trading

Bitcoin whales playing with retail, expect the unexpected.For this analysis we will be looking at the chart of XBT/USD on Bitmex This pair has been purposely chosen as this is the trading pair with the most leverage long/short positions. This makes it easier to spot where/when liquidity is being taken. Pretty much the whole crypto space is waiting on the retracement to rebuy BTC. Currently I am seeing alot of the same analysis all aiming for same zone to (re)buy BTC, mostly between 8 and 8.6k. What does usually happen when everyone thinks alike? well usually not what the majority thinks. Whales have been very active in the past 2 weeks while we have been consolidating in a range, trapping retailers in every single way possible. Stop losses are usually placed just above lows/highs and these often are victim to stop hunts as they are an easy prey for the whales. The red lines show a stop hunt occuring, thus taking liquidity out of the market. So where can we currently find liquidity in the market in the form of stops? If we take a look at the upside of our chart, we can see that most of the highs have been raided, meaning not much liquidity resides to the upside. if we take a look below our current price we can see the low on the 17th of july has not been violated yet. Furthermore, we saw a drop yesterday which did not violate these lows. The price reacted strongly creating upwards momentum, this means longs were being opened at these prices and shorts were being closed. With more longs opening, the stop losses of these longs are most likely placed somewhere below our current low and the low of the 17th of july This means that there will be alot of liquidty below these 'equal lows'. So how do we trade this? What we would like to see is the following: - Price pushed below thse low of the 17th of the july (9080 on Bitmex XBT/USD) - Price is being bought up after the low has been violated - Buy when prices closes above 9080 What we don't want to see is: - Price closing below 9080 - No strong buying after price drops below 9080 So, why did I mention that most people are looking at the same area to rebuy? well, if this trade plan works out, it means that the 8-8.6k most likely won't be reached and still we remain bullish. This means the majority of the people will be waiting for that 8-8.6k zone just to fomo in later as the price will not have reached it. Conclusion - Easy liquidity below 9080 (XBT/USD Bitmex) - High chance of trend being frontran - Market usually does NOT follow what the majority thinks
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PLong
by RJDTC
8
Bukowski's Adam & Adam Double Top: Bearish Outlook for Bitcoin Bukowski is one of the founding fathers of technical analysis, publishing many books on charting stocks, and explaining how price levels gear sentiment and influence performance. While some of his strategies may only be applicable to stocks many are based on principles of behavioural finance and are applicable in a cross-disciplinary fashion in the context of trading. His work also gave us many of the patterns that we now recognise in price-action; double tops, necklines, and variations of triangular formations. While there is still a lot of debate as to whether technical analysis works on cryptocurrency, there is a growing consensus that if enough retail traders are employing TA as part of their due diligence, then it must hold some validity. This chart pattern; the Adam & Adam Doublet Top, is a great indicator for an impending downwards breakout, and spells out a very bearish sentiment for Bitcoin . The Adam & Adam Double Top is characterised by the following properties: An upwards price trend leading up to the formation. The valley between the tops measures at least 10%. The variation in tops is less than 3%. The twin peaks are several weeks apart. There is a confirmation close below the valley of the two peaks (labelled "b"). While this pattern provides us with an indicator of a potential downwards break out, we need to consider whether this assumption fits a logical narrative. We have a highly level of resistance above the current price with the valley at $10,624. Bitcoin tried to test the resistance level several weeks ago unsuccessfully, and has now reverted back to a support level at $9,168. These levels are labelled "a" on the chart. At the same time we see a shrinking price channel from which the price has deviated (label: "c"), and has now started to form a horizontal consolidation region (HCR). We can see on our ADX Trend indicator that D- > D+ pointing to a negative trend, but the ADX remains below 20, indicating that the trend is weak. This weak technical set-up and chart formation points to a potential decrease with the price action tending towards the range indicated by the shaded region (labelled "d").
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by morpher
3
BTC in an active mid-term down trend/lower consolidation periodI'll keep it simple. Weekly Time-Frame 10 SMA - Orange line, 21 EMA - Yellow Line, 20 SMA - Red Line, Parabolic Sar - dotted crosses The parabolic sar has printed on the weekly time-frame. I don't use SAR personally unless it is on the weekly which have a very high percentage of playing out. You can see every time the SAR has printed on the weekly, there was a sign of mid -term reversal. BTC has printed the SAR and I suggest, highly suggest you pay attention. The bearish divergence on weekly has been confirmed and usually when bearish divergence are active, you would want to see it travel back down to the 21 EMA. The EMA death cross on the 4hr has become a meme, but nonetheless, it is playing out. Price will consolidate on the 10 SMA weekly with bounces here and there, but eventually it will break. The target is most likely the 21 EMA on the weekly and 20 MA on weekly. This is a sign of a healthy bull-market continuation of price if it can hold and consolidate on these two levels 21 EMA/20 MA weekly. They are the magnet in the market that will continue to push price further for a couple more years just like it has in previous bull markets. These are the areas of interest that many are looking to buy back for a longer HODL period on BTC. If price does not hold on the 21 EMA or 20 MA, and closed a candle/open a candle below, that is a sign of disaster to later to come for BTC. Just to have confluences, 4hr is showing a "death cross" on the 50 EMA and 200 EMA while weekly has re-entered the CCI . After a massive run of 300% since March, it will need to consolidate for a longer period of time before it can make another run. The macro time-frame by all means is still in an active bull-market, do not confuse mid-term analysis with macro analysis. So, how would you play this? Any rally for BTC will be sold into, and opening a short position will more than likely be in your favor because of the trend has reversed to the downside on the mid-term time frame. The blue box on the chart is the interest areas of buyers wanting to step back into the market. Wait for a weekly candle close AND open above the 21 EMA weekly, and that'll be your very very nice long for tremendous upside. Stop-loss under the 21 EMA, your risk reward is amazing at these levels. If you appreciate my macro analysis please consider using my affiliate link. www.deribit.com www.bitmex.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by cooface
First out of sample test of Kama TS v1.2This is a first test after the trading system parameters optimization. The idea is to operate when the level of volatility is not too high but not too low either and when the average KAMA is substantially flat because we do not want the trade to be influenced by any primary trend. This trading system tries to operate when the market is quiet, with average volatility and outside of strong trends that may adversely affect the operation. At the moment we have 3 good trades and one open trade that is not going well but not yet closed at loss.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn30297