BTC USD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBitcoin price recently decoupled from the stock market, as a result of which even the recent banking crisis held no bearish impact on the cryptocurrency. Now as the "Sell in May" trend comes back to life, it is likely that BTC might reap the benefits of a slow-growing stock market.
"Sell in May" - Banks' collapse paves the way
In the stock market, as April comes to an end, a common saying among investors comes back to life - "Sell in May and Go Away". The axiom is used to signal the beginning of the worst six months of the year for traders and investors. Due to the relatively terrible performance of the stock market, i.e., S&P 500 Index (SPX), "Sell in May" suggests simply ignoring the next six months and coming back again in October.
While it may seem like another fad, the saying has historically been proven right. According to a report from Carson, on average, the May to October period has borne the least growth of 1.7% in comparison to other six-month combinations.
But beyond an axiom, the stock market does have a lot to worry about as another bank just collapsed. The First Republic Bank, one of Unites States' 20 biggest banks, is going to be reportedly taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) on April 28. The bank will be placed under imminent receivership as the FDIC said that there was "no more time" for a private sector rescue.
Earlier this year, the Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank failed as the entire US faced a banking crisis in Q1. The stock market bore the impacts of the same as within a month, SPX declined by nearly 344.63 points falling by 8.25%.
Now as May begins following First Republic Banks' crisis, the Federal Reserve is also set to conduct its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 2 - 3. In this meeting, the next interest rate hike will take place, and the Fed is likely to increase the rates by 25 basis points (bps).
The probability of the same is currently at 80%, rising from 75% that was observed a few days ago after reports of First Republic Bank being taken over by the US government first came to light.
All these instances could have a bearish impact on the stock markets, translating into a bullish impact on Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin price could rise
Bitcoin price in the past has had a rather surprising reaction to not just the stock market decline but the banking crisis as well.
While the banks collapsing in the first quarter of the year brought down the stock and crypto market collectively initially, BTC started rallying soon after and over the next ten days, the biggest cryptocurrency in the world shot up by 40%.
This is because, towards the end of 2022, Bitcoin decoupled itself from the stock market and regained its "safe haven" status and "inflation hedge" label akin to Gold. Even this week, as the initial reports of First Republic Banks's failure arrived, BTC shot up by nearly 8%.
Thus as the "Sell in May" trend takes shape and stock market performance remains sub-par, Bitcoin price will have room to welcome traders and investors from the stocks' world.
Furthermore, Bitcoin supply profitability is still pretty low at 74%. While the profitability did increase over the last four months from 45% to a 12-month high, there is still room for growth before a market top is observed.
Usually, when more than 95% of the supply becomes profitable, a market top is marked, which induces sell pressure. Until then, BTC is good to chart gains.
Conclusion
Looking at the broader market conditions, it does seem likely for Bitcoin price to observe some green candlesticks on the charts potentially. That is unless the alt season takes over and Bitcoin's dominance falls from the current 48.63% to less than 40%.
At the same time, traders and investors should also watch out for the upcoming interest rate hike, as a more than 25 bps hike could cause a price crash.
Bitcoin-usd
🔥 Bitcoin Potential Perfect Bearish ChannelAfter a failure to break through the 30,000 resistance three times, it appears that the bulls have given up and the bears took over.
When we connect the two local tops and copy that trend line to the bottom, we create a perfectly symmetrical channel.
It's unclear whether we're going down all the way to the support line of the channel, but I have to agree that things have started to look more bearish after we topped at 31,000.
With the FOMC interest meeting around the corner, we have to consider the idea that Powell will announce that he won't cut the raise, and potentially even raise more in the future, leading to a bearish reaction.
Time will tell.
🔥 How High Can We Go? Bitcoin Fibonacci Analysis Says UP 🚀In this analysis I want to talk about the comparison of the current end-of-bear rally and compare it to the one we got in 2019. This analysis is based on just 1 previous occurrence, so deviations are possible and expected.
Some key points of the 2019 end-of-bear rally:
🔶 It took 28 weeks from top to bottom.
🔶 The price topped at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement line. Found heavy resistance in the blue target area.
🔶 The first 20 weeks (where we currently trade) was a ~+85% move.
🔶 The majority of the pump occurred AFTER the first 20 weeks.
When we extrapolate the above to the current market conditions, we can potentially expect some sizeable moves in the near future.
🟡 In case of a 28 week rally, we will top in the week of 5-12 June (8 weeks from now).
🟡 The top will be between roughly 42k - 49k.
However, there are also some differences.
🔷 Where 2019 saw the majority (in percent) of the move after the first 20 weeks, I reckon we've seen the biggest move already.
🔷 Notice that we're currently already above the 0.236 (red) Fibonacci Retracement. In 2019 we were still 18% below it.
Nevertheless, I think it's valuable to look at how the market traded in 2019. Yes, we're in very different market conditions, but the market does not really care it seems. Furthermore, we're comparing it to only one previous end-of-bear rally, so take it with a grain of salt.
In the end, I'm convinced that there's still more gains coming. We are not going to see new all-time highs any time soon, but a move to 40k is definitely in the cards.
Do you think the top is near? What are your predictions? Share in the comments 🙏
Bitcoin ranges By looking at the chart it's quite clear that BTC has 2 very distinct and important ranges.
The blue range between 15.3k & 25.2k has been our home for the past 9 months, by splitting this range up into quarters on the 1d chart you can see that price on many occasions respects these given levels.
The orange range is where we are now, we've broken up past the 25.2k range high and have now entered a range of 25.2k & 32.4k. These prices were set between may and June of 2022 while price was extremely bearish. As the chart suggest price is respecting the quarters of this range already and if we assume they will continue to do so this could be an efficient strategy for swing trading between quarterly limits.
The price ranges of these given segments are show to the left of the chart, this emphasises the need for risk management in a bear market and it's a lesson a lot of traders including myself learn the hard way. By holding onto BTC while it drops from 25.2k to 15.3k you would lose 39% of your investment, for that to break even again BTC needs to increase by 64%, it's something that a lot of people don't take into account so just a little reminder to some beginners.
A lot of people have positioned themselves waiting for a retest of the 25.2k area to ensure that we have entered a new range. I do think it's possible however the market rarely does what the masses expect.
BTCUSD Potential Forecast | 9th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop
1. Upcoming NFP print can dictate the direction on BTCUSD.
2. Fear and greed index is inclining more towards "fear".
Technical Confluences
1. Price is in a bearish trend, forming lower lows and lower highs.
2. Price has rejected off a H4 resistance zone at 22169.
3. Price looks poised to tap into the H4 support zone at 21400.
4. Price is well under the ichimoku cloud, signifying bearish intent.
Idea
I will be looking for price to continue its bearish momentum in the market and for price to retrace back to 15000 region.
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BTCUSDT
As you can see, Bitcoin has started its upward trend, but there are important resistances ahead that we will examine.
After three steps of movement, there was a reversal, which failed to engolf the trend base, so it can move up to step 4, which we have specified, and from there it will test the first drive again, and if it cannot engolf the first drive, it will move to step 5. And there is an important resistance that can make the price fall sharply.
(Be careful, this analysis is completely personal and is not a buy or sell offer, write me your comments)
Be successful and profitable..
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BTC Price Prediction - TA using FibsIf you place a fib from the bottom of the prior run to the top of the next, the lowest price BTC retraces to in the next run is between the 786 and 886 twice.
This is true of all previous runs.
BTC hasn't reached the price between the current 786 and 886 yet twice, so I think a retracement to the 12k-15k range may be possible before a bigger run to the upside.
BEYOND THE CHARTWe can see on the EMA Ribbon that the previous attempt to change the trend was unsuccessful.
Latest attempt has been successful and we will see a continuation shortly.
It is worth noting for those who are unaware; This coinbase price chart is missing the price mark down phase and accumulation phase.
Referring to this chart only will make it difficult to find the best possible target.
The BTC / AST pairing is also driving the volatility as more capital (when compared to fiat) rapidly enters and leaves.
I am basing my analysis and targets on the information above.
$3000/Oz of GoldThere is a potential massive cup and handle on the Gold weekly chart. It should be noted that Cup and Handles don't usually play out over these very long time frames. Furthermore, the handle is not as clean as you might expect although online resources state ...
"After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times it is just a short pullback."
The handle doesn't always have to be a clean inverted arc. Given the above caveats, the chart is undeniably bullish even at first glace. Maybe we can see a Cup and Handle play out on this time scale. If it does come to fruition, expect a massive increase in volume as Gold breaks over the highest point in the "cup rim". The end result of such a move would target the $3000/Oz level. Enjoy.
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