Important support and resistance zone: 93576.0-94742.35
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The key is whether it can receive support near the important support and resistance zone of 93576.0-94742.35 and rise above 97461.86.
A short-term uptrend is expected to be possible only if it rises above 97461.86.
The support and resistance zones are marked with circles.
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(30m chart)
The point to watch is which direction it deviates from the 92792.05-97461.86 section and maintains.
If it meets the HA-Low indicator and rises, it is highly likely that it will re-determine the trend when it meets the HA-High indicator.
This is the same as the BW(0) and BW(100) indicators.
If the 5EMA of the 1D chart > M-Signal of the 1D chart changes, it is highly likely that it will show a short-term uptrend.
In order to continue the short-term uptrend, it must show support near 97461.86.
If not, the 97461.86 area will act as resistance.
Since the StochRSI indicator has touched the 100 point, we need to see if it can rise above 94742.35 and receive support.
Since the 5EMA and BW(100) indicators of the 1D chart are passing near 94742.35, it confirms that the area around 94742.35 is an important support and resistance area.
The 94742.35 point is the HA-High indicator point of the 1W chart.
If it goes down, it is important to see if it can be supported by the HA-Low indicator, BW(0) indicator, and 93576.0.
The 93576.0 point is the BW(100) indicator point of the 1M chart.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you how to view and respond to it.
Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role.
The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci.
Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies.
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
BTC, the wave count is not completedHello everyone,
today I want to talk about Elliot Wave Theory.
The big problem is, that waves can be interpreted in different ways and invalidation levels are often far away from trade setups. Therefore it's necessery to follow the wave count on different levels because usually the wave itself is made my a five wave move in the trend direction or a three wave move in the direction of the correction.
Currently we have an incomplete wave count on Bitcoin and should in my opinion be in the fourth or fifth wave. It seems like the next move will be towards 120k.
What is your opinion?
ADAUSD - From this simple chart, whole crypto market bullish?While its not necessary obvious to guess next move on BTC, some alts like ADA can help a lot
ADA made a rebound on the weekly 200MA on the 20th of December, that mark was also a support from the previous high made in feb 2024 and another support on feb 2022
as we are talking with big timeframes, chances for the asset to go under 20th December lows are very unlikely (but still possible), making the WHOLE crypto market still very bullish
what now ?
We can easily revisit ATH at 3, the faster we reach it, the higher we can go next
3 possibilities : February, April or September
not financial advice
Cheers
ETHUSD - I still believe (on the H&S pattern)While I'm not an hyper fan of H&S pattern but this one forming is already so beautiful that I want it to happens to illustrate my futures arguments,
saw a lot of ppl talk about h&s pattern the past days on BTC, the leg would have started on November and bring us to 80k, something like this. Not a pro but I learnt that the pattern has to be kinda well drawn to be called an H&S, forming proper top and lows with proper neckline, and be well timed.
that is/was absolutely not the case for BTC and that why I remain bullish for now (yes, I risk it a bit saying that here and now)
even in the case where BTC goes under 90k, we can't call this an H&S, by respect of all the real H&S out there. That's also why most of the times it looks like ppl fail using this pattern, they use it on everything
BUT in this case for ETH this looking really juicy atm, I don"t have specific target for now I dont think eth will pass above 12K for this year but lets see
Cheers, have a good day
BTCUSD // minor long trendWHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT BITCOIN?
The countertrend of the last corrective impulse is valid until the price closes below H4 impulse base.
Within this minor long trend, the market may test the correction fibo 50, but if it's broken, the correction of the primary long trend may go for a test of the correction fibo 50.
Of course, the short side offers a much better opportunity, but it's worth to wait for the minor long trend to be broken.
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Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
H4 - aqua
Long trigger - green
Short trigger - red
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Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
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BTC critical level definedCRYPTOCAP:BTC is holding the 92k level of horizontal support. If we can close a daily candle above it, the market has a chance to maintain its bullish trend. In the meantime, prepare for a dip as daily momentum continues to push down to oversold conditions. The 4h may give us conditions to also DCA. Make sure to reserve capital for a daily reset.
BTCUSD Falling Wedge made a bottom. Short term buy signal.Bitcoin / BTCUSD is trading inside a Falling Wedge, which just made a new Low today.
Every prior hit on its bottom trendline / support has been a buy signal.
The December 20th and 23rd bottoms rebounded to Resistance A. The December 30th rose a bit more to the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
As a result we can buy and target at least $95750 (Resistance A).
See also how the 4hour RSI made a similar Double Bottom to December's.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Bitcoin Euphoria: Correction Ahead?BamBooChain 🎋⛓️
Good morning, friends! Let's discuss the current market situation. After reaching a new all-time high of around $108,000, Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential correction.
Technically, we're in an interesting situation: the market has reached the extreme euphoria zone I mentioned earlier. RSI and MACD indicators are showing signs of divergence, which often precedes corrective movements.
Key points:
Trading volumes are decreasing while price is rising, creating potential divergence
Funding remains relatively neutral, indicating balanced positions
Long-term holders aren't taking significant profits yet
Possible scenarios:
Consolidation in the $100,000-108,000 range
Correction to $88,000-92,000 levels (this would be a healthy 20% correction)
Regarding altcoins - they're showing relative weakness, and Bitcoin dominance is increasing. This is a typical pattern before a possible correction.
Recommendation: maintain protective stop orders and be prepared for a possible correction. However, the global trend remains bullish, and such a correction could become a good entry point for new positions.
Stay tuned for updates! 🎋⛓️
What’s Next for BTC: $99K or $84K?Good Morning, Trading Family!
What’s Next for BTC: $99K or $84K?
Here’s the game plan: if BTC corrects up to $93K, $94K, or $96K, it could then pull back down to the $84K marker. But if BTC breaks $96K, we could see it climb to $99K.
This Sunday, I’m hosting a webinar on how emotions can hurt your trading and how to take control of your mindset for better results.
Send me a message or check out my profile for details. If this added value to your trading, like, comment, and share it with someone who needs it.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Bitcoin update 11 Jan 2025I don't often post bitcoin updates, not because I don't have anything to say, but because I understand what phase of the market we are in.
This phase as I said earlier in the posts is called distribution which will last until September 2025. After that I am expecting a correction of 50%+ from the put peak.
I have already made an assumption what reversal formation we will make.
Locally, it's January 11, 2025.
It is the beginning of the year, the market has already played Trump's presidency and as a classic “buy on rumors, sell on facts” the inauguration will be very soon, and I think the market will react down in a week. But after the positive news will continue, but we are unlikely to see in this cycle 200k for 1 bitcoin, but for me it will be a surprise. There will be a lot of talk about bitcoin. At the end of the year there should be euphoria with the new head of SEC pouring honey in the ears of crypto holders.
I'm not listening to anyone, I'm moving forward with my plan.
If you're reading me, there hasn't been a post in this series in a long time that I've changed my point of view.
I've actually started trading less cryptocurrency, it's now position trades on cycles. And it got a little boring.
So I've tapped into the traditional markets. And I'm more actively focused on them. If you're interested in any question, ask in the comments.
Best regards EXCAVO
Why MicroStrategy Will FailIf you listen to Michael Saylor, watch what he is doing with his financial engineering, and "learn about Bitcoin" it seems incredibly obvious that... MicroStrategy WILL NOT fail . At least, that is what I have been told by those that stand to gain massively from Bitcoin's price appreciation. It makes a lot of sense: corner the market of Bitcoin supply => force the price into "discovery" mode and everyone that believed in him and Bitcoin will be rich to the point they feel they deserve for being so prescient with their wisdom.
The history of finance does not bode well for such absolute certainty...
I began shorting Microstrategy with Puts over a year ago. "Being early and being wrong are often indistinguishable in trading/investing." I've lost money. But that did not dissuade me from calling BS on this scheme.
Up until November 22, 2024 it had been a small trade that had not worked out so far. But on that day Saylor gave a CNBC interview (highly recommend looking it up) where he talked about their "core business", their "Bitcoin reactor", "selling volatility", and lots of complex financial jargon. To some, this might come across as brilliance. To me, having been in markets for a long time and studying their history it was patently obvious he was doing the classic, "if you can't amaze with brilliance then dazzle with bullshit" tactic. This was not a scam, nor a ponzi, nor a fraud... in absolute terms. We don't actually have a word for it. But it needs a derogatory term because people are going to lose money buying into it.
I don't believe in karma. What I believe is that people cannot help be themselves and repeat their character flaws and patterns. This is not the first time Saylor has engaged in "financial engineering". Over 20 years ago MSTR (same company, same symbol) got caught by the SEC for doing much the same thing a Enron in their accounting practices. They were levied a big fine and the stock dropped -60% in a single day. Roughly two weeks later... the entire dot-com bubble imploded. Was MSTR the catalyst for this collapse? Unknown. But it certainly did not help keep the bubble going...
Once again Saylor is exploiting the financial system. Or as gamers would call it; "clever use of game mechanics." There is nothing illegal about what he is doing (that is apparent). It's all out in the open. But it's leverage. Lots of leverage. MSTR ran out of simple debt and have found other ways to make cash to buy Bitcoin. Every week they keep "buying the top" as cheerleaders for this asset; Bitcoin. Trying to get others to join in their crusade to... I guess get it to $1 million now. Still valuing it in fiat terms while claiming to be changing finance (do they still want to do that anymore with Blackrock being their best backer? Unknown.
I left all my Bitcoin Maxi chats as part of a New Year's Resolution to argue less with people on the Internet after 2024. When I left I was still defending my short while they were eagerly buying the dip. With all investments... time will tell.
The Trade
I have been purchasing Puts in different traunches with different strikes going out all the way to 2027. These long term Puts have their theta offset by selling shorter duration options to keep myself theta positive. This has been great over the last 2 months with increased IV. During the recent drop to $285 I actually found myself delta positive for a day. I wanted to get "more short" and added as much risk as I felt comfortable on the last push up to $380. Now delta negative/theta positive.
Where I stop out: $390 is a key volume profile level topside. If price gets back above there I consider myself wrong... for now... and start to unwind risk or hedge more
How I manage: I will continue to manage my delta/theta as long as IV makes it fun while always trying to stay negative. Buy long dated puts on pops up; Sell some Puts on every move down. The goal is for MSTR's debt to start getting called this year and they be forced to make some hard choices. This may require Bitcoin and/or the equities market to collapse in 1-2 years. If so; MSTR will be hurt tremendously.
$BTC Bitcoin at critical point... Head and shoulder Pattern!CRYPTOCAP:BTC Bitcoin is at a critical point
Current price: 91000
Bitcoin has retraced over 16% from an all time high of 108k, Price action is currently forming a head and shoulder pattern which is usually a bearish pattern!
#btc needs to remain supported around 90.5k to continue its uptrend to all time highs at 119k
If MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN price action loses support at 90.5k then expect prices to retest supports at 85k and then 80k.
Definitely a critical point to watch! What do you think?
TRUMP PUMP? MORE LIKE TRUMP DUMP!!! WHERE DOES BITCOIN STOP?Bitcoin is losing support and on these higher timeframes it looks rough as a dogs bum.
Will the pain stop?Yes, but it will be shortlived, it will give bulls enough hope to fomo back into longs before crushing their souls and their pensions.
Good luck.
Bitcoin Aligns with the 2017 Cycle ModelThere’s growing speculation that the current Bitcoin cycle mirrors the market behavior seen in 2017.
Intrigued by this, I conducted my own analysis. I overlaid the 2014–2017 cycle pattern onto the current chart for comparison.
The results?
A striking resemblance in both the overall shape and the distinct correction and impulse phases.
It seems history may not repeat itself exactly, but it certainly rhymes. 📊
Bitcoin is Ready to Attack Heavy Support Zone!!!Today, January 10 , key U.S. employment data , including Average Hourly Earnings , Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate , were released, influencing global markets, including Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ).
Stronger-than-expected employment figures suggest a robust economy, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to maintain or increase interest rates. Higher interest rates can strengthen the U.S. dollar ( TVC:DXY ), making Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies less attractive as alternative investments , possibly exerting downward pressure on their prices.
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Bitcoin started to pump from the Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) , as I expected . ( Bitcoin allowed us to enter a long position two times .)
Bitcoin is moving near the Resistance zone($96,800-$95,520) , the upper line of the Ascending Channel , and near the 50_SMA(Daily) .
According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin seems to complete wave C of Zigzag waves(ABC/5-3-5) . At best, wave C could rise to $99,000 (but unlikely).
I expect Bitcoin to go down based on today's US employment data and the fact that the U.S. DoJ received court approval to sell 69,370 BTCs . Bitcoin will attack the Heavy Support zone($93,400-$90,000) again soon, and this attack may be able to break this zone .
⚠️Note: If Bitcoin goes above $99,000, we can expect more Pumps.⚠️.
⚠️Note: We should expect more dumps if Bitcoin touches $93,500 before reaching the Resistance zone($96,800-$95,520) again⚠️.
🙏Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.🙏
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰.
🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Bitcoin Market CycleHello, dear friends!🩷 Much has been said about Bitcoin cycles, and you've seen many charts, including mine! But today, I'll summarize everything that has been said before: briefly and clearly!So...
What Defines the Bitcoin Market Cycle?
The Bitcoin market cycle signifies the repetitive trend of price movements within the Bitcoin market, marked by alternating phases of appreciation and depreciation. These fluctuations stem from the perceptions and actions of market participants, involving buying and selling, and are influenced by various factors including market sentiment, regulatory shifts, technological advancements, and broader economic conditions.
Historically, Bitcoin has adhered to a four-year cycle closely tied to Bitcoin halving events, occurring roughly every four years. A halving event entails a 50% reduction in the Bitcoin reward miners receive for validating transactions; consequently, the rate of Bitcoin supply growth slows down. This often triggers a significant price surge, assuming the demand for Bitcoin either remains constant or increases post-halving. The upcoming halving is slated for April 2024, where the block reward will decrease to 3.125 bitcoins.
The chart below illustrates the cyclic nature of Bitcoin's price and its historical patterns.
What Constitutes the Phases of the Bitcoin Market Cycle?
Phase 1 – Accumulation
This phase emerges when prices are low, yet there are early indications of growth. It's a period where buyers accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices, representing a pinnacle of financial opportunity.
Typically, bearish sentiment prevails in the market, resulting in low trading volumes and prices fluctuating within a narrow range, often near the bottom.
Phase 2 – Continuation (growth)
During this phase, the price continues its ascent towards the all-time high. Historically, a halving event occurs here, coinciding with diminishing exchange reserves as buyers stockpile supply in anticipation of surging prices and new record highs.
Phase 3 – Parabolic (bubble)
As the price surpasses the previous all-time high, it begins to rise exponentially, leading to a new all-time high that significantly exceeds the previous peak. This phase is marked by extreme volatility, with rapid price spikes followed by substantial corrections.
Sell volume increases as some investors lock in profits, while others continue buying, believing the bull market has further potential. Consequently, price volatility diminishes as buying and selling volumes begin to balance, amid a backdrop of overconfidence. Many investors may perceive the Fear & Greed Index as signaling Extreme Greed during this phase.
Phase 4 – Correction (crash)
Following the euphoria of the Parabolic phase, the market undergoes a major downward correction. Previous bear market periods have witnessed approximately 80% drawdowns from the peak, with negative price movements lasting for roughly a year. For instance, the most recent downturn saw Bitcoin's price plummet from an all-time high of $69,000 (November 2021) to $15,476 (November 2022).
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