XRP: Current SituationYou asked, and we delivered:
XRP is trading at $2.23, down from recent highs and caught in a choppy phase amid a broader crypto market dip (total market cap down 4.4% in the last 24 hours). Some traders point to a breakout from a descending channel, hinting at bullish potential, while others flag whale selling and weak volume, suggesting bearish risks. The breakout lacks strong volume, raising doubts about its staying power. External factors, like the ongoing SEC lawsuit and ETF rumors, add volatility but remain speculative. For now, XRP is testing immediate support at $2.20-$2.23, with the market awaiting a decisive move.
Technical Indicators and Key Levels
Short-Term (1-Hour Chart):
Support: $2.20-$2.23 (current test), $2.00
Resistance: $2.33, $2.50
Indicators: RSI at 49 (neutral), MACD bearish. The breakout needs volume to confirm; otherwise, a retest could push XRP back to $2.00.
Long-Term (Weekly Chart):
Support: $1.90 (critical), $1.50
Resistance: $2.50, $3.00
The 200-day MA is falling, reflecting long-term pressure, but holding $1.90 is key for bulls.
Potential Scenarios
Bullish Case: Hold $2.20, break $2.33 with volume → target $2.50. Long-term, clear $2.50 → aim for $3.00.
Bearish Case: Drop below $2.20 → test $2.00; below $1.90 risks $1.50.
Volume is critical—watch for spikes to validate moves.
Broader Context and Tips
XRP’s utility in cross-border payments and ETF whispers keep long-term optimism alive, but regulatory uncertainty looms. Traders should focus on $2.20, a hold keeps bulls in play, a break signals caution. Use tight stops (e.g., below $2.20 for longs) and stay alert for news on the SEC case or ETF developments. Long-term, $1.90 is the line to watch for bullish continuation.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
ADA: Current SituationYou asked, and we delivered:
Cardano (ADA) is currently trading at $0.688, reflecting a volatile yet pivotal moment amid a broader crypto market downturn, with the total market cap down 4.4% over the past 24 hours. Some traders see a falling wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart pointing to a potential breakout, while others note whale activity dumping 100M ADA, suggesting selling pressure. Despite this, ADA’s fundamentals, like its 92M organic transactions and $380M daily DEX volume, hint at underlying strength. The market’s cautious mood, combined with Cardano’s utility-driven ecosystem, sets the stage for a critical juncture.
Technical Indicators and Key Levels
Short-Term (1-Hour and 4-Hour Charts):
Support: $0.65-$0.68 – A key demand zone holding firm so far; $0.53 if selling intensifies.
Resistance: $0.78 – A breakout here could signal bullish momentum; $0.92 as the next target.
Indicators: RSI at ~46 (neutral with upside room), MACD showing bearish momentum. A falling wedge on the 4-hour chart suggests a possible reversal if volume supports a break above $0.78.
Long-Term (Weekly Chart):
Support: $0.60 – A major floor; $0.48 if a deeper correction hits.
Resistance: $1.00 – Psychological and historical barrier; $1.54 as a 2026 target per some forecasts.
Indicators: The 200-day MA is falling, reflecting long-term pressure, but a rising 50-day MA below the price could act as support if tested.
Potential Scenarios
Short-Term:
Bullish Case: If ADA holds $0.68 and breaks $0.78 with strong volume, it could rally to $0.92 or higher. This aligns with the falling wedge breakout narrative from X posts.
Bearish Case: A drop below $0.65 might test $0.53, especially if whale selling persists and volume confirms the move.
Long-Term:
Bullish Case: Holding $0.60 could set up a climb to $1.00 by late 2025, with potential to hit $1.54 in 2026 if adoption grows and market sentiment flips.
Bearish Case: A break below $0.60 risks a slide to $0.48, though fundamentals like network activity could cushion the fall.
Broader Context and Tips
ADA’s strength lies in its research-driven blockchain, scalable PoS consensus, and growing DeFi ecosystem. Long-term, its utility could drive value, but short-term volatility ties to market trends and macro events (e.g., US CPI data). Traders should watch $0.78 for a breakout signal and $0.65 for downside risk, volume will tell the story. Use tight stops (e.g., below $0.65 for longs) and stay alert for news on adoption or whale moves. Investors can lean on Cardano’s fundamentals but should brace for choppiness until the market stabilizes.
Another look at the wedge/pennant I just postedI decided to do a second chart idea on the pennant I posted in the last chart, this tme including the super pivotal support trendline and moving the emasured move line to the point that support line crosses over the top trendline of the wedge. Will be interesting to see if either of these measured move line projections from this dea and the last one play out. *not financial advice*
Falling Wedge/Pennant on BitcoinThe full wedge extends all the way into August. I certainly hope we break up from it well before then. I place the measured move line around where I think we old break upward from if we can flip the 200ma back to solidified support. It of course could actually take much longer to break up from the wedge but even if it did the lowest price of the wedge is really not that terrifying in my opinion and would instead just be a phenomenal buying opportunity if we were allowed to accumulate mote that cheap. Because of other major supports not shown here however going below 70k for anything but an extremely brief wick seems an incredibly low probability. *not financial advice*
Bitcoin Index-3 Strength index. Tells us what ? Bull Or Bear ?This post will include the same chart as a Month, Weekly, Daily and 4 hour
The 3 indicators are
RSI - RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the price
TSI - The True Strength Index indicator is a momentum oscillator designed to detect, confirm or visualize the strength of a trend. - the True Strength Index (TSI) does show trend direction.
ADX - the Average Directional Index (ADX) shows the strength of a market trend, NOT its direction. The base line is 25 - Above is strong trned, below is weaker trend
ADX is Yellow - DI + is orange ( positive price index) - DI - is Red ( Negative price index
MONTHLY
The main chart is the monthly chart - the vertical lines Mark Years
Note how ATH's are all Above the Rising upper trend line.
From the Left,
2013 ATH - Note how RSI and TSI both peaked BEFORE ATH, as did the DI+ on the ADX indicator. The ADX itself turned down Later
2017 ATH saw a similar pattern
2021 was slightly different. RSI and TSI peaked on the March ATH but the true cycle ATH was in Q4 ( Nov) , as are most BTC Cycle ATH - Note the sudden drops in both ( probably due to deleveraged)
The DI+ on the ADX did the same but note how the ADX itself peaked in NOV - The ADX seemingly being more accurate on showing us Cycle Top by Trend.
Currently,
The RSI has not entered Fully OVERBOUGHT as in previous cycles. Has Fallen below Overbought entry line in recent weeks. Maybe leveling out
TSI ( orange) is falling since Jan, showing a bearish trend - Falling towards its own average.. PA has been falling in this time.
ADX has also slowed and flatten out, showing a weakening of trend. NOTE - ADX does not show us Trend direction...So, in recent months, we have seen a DROP in PA.
Weakening of this trend could be pointing towards a reversal ?
Also look at the orange DI+ line in ADX....It is getting Lower on each ATH, harder to move higher as Price increase makes BTC harder to move
THE WEEKLY begins to show us more info
This starts to get interesting here
Note that in 2021, It was as we saw in the monthly Except the ADX fell after the March ATH and did not rise again untill half way through 2021 when the Bear Kicked in Fully. The ADX here is showing the strength of that Bear Market as Luna, FTX and 3 arrows collapsed.
The RSI and TSI remained flat Till Jan 2023, when we saw PA beginning to recover. Notice I said RECOVER. I said it at the time and I say it again..Jan 2023 till September was recovery from avery deep Bear market. This is backed up by the fact that the ADX remained Flat untill Late August 2023. Showed No TREND
Then we saw ADX rise, TSI rise off Neutral and RSI begin to head towards Overbought.
All 3 then Dipped in Mid 2024, Rose again to End of 2024 and since then, we have seen the RSI and TSI drop below their averages, head to Neutral
ADX continied to rise as DI+ Dropped, showing us this was a Bearish Trend after all.
However, since beginning of March, the ADX has been showing a weakening of this trend. Still Bearish as the rise in DI - shows, but it is getting weaker.
DAILY begins to show us what could be heading for a new trend, maybe
BTC PA dropped since Feb as did the RSI and TSI, though they have recently stopped doing that and have tried to bounce but still remain below Neutral.
The reason for this is shown in the ADX that has continued to rise untill March, Keeping that Bearish trend Active and strong. This is confirmed by the DI - ( red ) being above the DI +
Even though this trend has weakened, DI + remains flat showing that a change in trend does not appear to be happening to quickly.
Note how the ADX has turned and is beginning to rise higher as the TSI and RSI flatten out
Hpwever. DI - also remain flat.
Change could be near. It is not happening yet but......
The 4 hour chart is full of Noise but given whet we just seen, it may be relevant to see it
It is Volatile but we can see on BTC PA how PA slowed its drop from March and has ranged with a reducing high Low.
We can see how the RSI and TSI rose, dipped and Rose to their current positions near Neutral.
We can see on the ADX, in the centre , was the Last Bearish push, BTC PA Dropped sharply but the trend weakened quickly. the Bears are getting tired.
We see the attempt by the BULLS around the 11 march to push PA higher.
This failed..but showed us the bulls are still here.
The Fact that the ADX is below the DI lines is a sign that a Trend no longer exists or is very weak
The previous Bearish Trend is possibly exhausted.
We have signs that Price recovery is possible from here though I think we will wait a bit longer before we see it.
My conclusion is that we maybe seeing the beginning of a change , a reversal, but it may take a little while before we see the Fruits fully. Possibly up to 5 - 6 weeks or more.
The shorter term data shows we could make a push to top of range ( or near) but that could get rejected.. We need more strength for the long term
But I suggest you read this, look at these charts and make up your own mind.
Because they are hard to read in many ways, Trends can spring up any time, in any direction.
We can only look at them and think..
I wish you well
This Low Cap Alt will 20-50x (CULT DAO)This crypto cycle has been brutal for alts. There have been massive shakeouts over and over, a relentless onslaught of rug pulls and scams, and the "Pump.fun" casino on Solana that’s drained billions of retail liquidity and transferred it to the few.
The few always seem to win, and the many always seem to lose. Today, if you’re reading this, it might all change.
CULT DAO could easily 20-50x from now until October 2025. Let’s take a look at the MACD divergence.
### Technical Divergence
For 750 days, this bullish divergence has been forming on the histogram MACD. Every new low on price has formed a higher low on the MACD.
Let’s take a look at a case study of what happens when we get this form of divergence.
I traded this exact same pattern in 2022 that resulted in a nearly 425% move. The play function doesn’t work because they rebranded, and that ticker is no longer valid, but you can scroll to the bottom in my comments on that TA and see the move. I’ll post it under this as well.
As you can see, we got that 425% move. Currently, CULT DAO is showing exactly the same histogram divergence.
Here are some examples of zigzag impulses on low-cap alts. You tend not to get 5 waves; instead, you get this zigzag pattern. This is what I predict CULT DAO will do since it’s only a 5 million market cap.
We can also see in the chart that the 0.618 time Fibonacci level hits at the end of October 2025, which is exactly where I think the altcoin market will top. Check out previous TA on that.
This is only scratching the surface of what is to come for CULT DAO. I have presented to you the technical reason why a big move is stirring and why, at the apex of these divergences, the stars align, and you have the catalyst present itself, and boom—the explosive move comes all at once, and it will be extremely volatile because of its low market cap.
### Let’s Start with the Tokenomics
Every time someone sells or buys CULT DAO on Uniswap, there is a 0.40% tax that goes to a treasury. The top 50 stakers get to pass proposals that fund projects/investments. The idea is to remove the centralized component of funding a project.
121 projects have been funded over the last three years with 3 million dollars.
- Total CULT Funded: 479,751,081,214 CULT
- Total ETH Funded: 1,573 ETH
- Proposals Funded: 121
- Total USD Funded: $3,289,596
- Total ETH Burned: 303 ETH
Allocating these funds has been a learning process over the last three years, but every failure has been necessary in preparing the DAO for what’s to come next.
### The Big Catalyst
The creator of CULT DAO has been working on a blockchain that will function on a custom gas token—that’s right, and that custom token will be CULT DAO. You heard correctly.
Every transaction, every deployment on the blockchain will require the CULT DAO token as gas to execute. The implications are massive. There are multiple dApps that are currently being constructed on the Modulus blockchain.
A privacy-first zkEVM blockchain like Modulus means a scalable, Ethereum-compatible blockchain that prioritizes user privacy through zero-knowledge proofs, allowing optional private transactions while maintaining decentralization.
Modulus is a privacy-first zkEVM blockchain and is scheduled to release this year between April and August 2025. I hope now you’re starting to see the picture.
### CULT DAO and ETH Liquidity Pools
So, why does the price of CULT go down if there is currently very little volume? Well, CULT DAO and ETH liquidity pools are tied together, so if the ETH price goes down, so does CULT. In turn, if ETH goes up, so does CULT.
You can see that CULT is nearly at a 1:1 ratio with ETH for now, coming in at a 0.91 ratio.
In other words, if my thesis is correct about ETH and it goes to 15,000 dollars, the price of CULT would be as follows:
- ETH at $10,000:
CULT Price: $0.000005008 (4x increase).
Market Cap: $21.38M (4x increase).
- ETH at $15,000:
CULT Price: $0.000007512 (6x increase).
Market Cap: $32.08M (6x increase).
That’s right—if nobody even bought CULT, not one dollar, the base liquidity increase of ETH would bring the market cap to possibly 32 million, in other words, if you were thinking of buying ETH, why don’t you just buy CULT DAO?
You can buy ETH now; from this price, 15,000 is 7x, or you can buy CULT DAO, get 6x plus whatever extra volume is coming in. It seems like a logical play, really.
Everything you’ve seen so far is why I believe this MACD histogram divergence has been forming for 750 days. As I said, the stars will align at the apex, and the explosion will come.
### Unruggable and No Whales Controlling Supply
As you can see from the bubble map, the largest wallet that is not an exchange has a cluster total of 0.7%. The rest of the clusters you see in the image are basically exchange wallets, which are the red and dark green circles mostly.
Liquidity is also locked for over 200 years.
- Burned Supply = 1.29664T
- Circulating Supply (including staked) = 4.27T
- Staked Supply = 1.07599T
- Remaining Tradable Supply (excluding burned and staked) = 4.27T - 1.29664T - 1.07599T ≈ 1.89737T
So, no whales, and it’s not possible to rug because liquidity is locked.
### Modulus Blockchain Liquidity Injection
The average liquidity injection for DAOs in ZK would be anything from 200,000 to 10 million. Let’s assume it’s a $1M injection that is split 50/50 between CULT and ETH, a common practice for Uniswap-style pools.
- CULT Amount in Pool: At the current price of $0.000001252, $500,000 buys ~399.36B CULT ($500,000 ÷ $0.000001252).
It would increase the price to a 10 million market cap overnight.
### Conclusion
- Liquidity is locked for 200 years
- No whales
- Not possible to rug
- Mainnet launching this year
- ETH pools tied to CULT
- MACD histogram divergence
The target I have for CULT is just based on Fibonacci levels. Honestly, it’s unpredictable what will happen, how high it will go, or the impact the Modulus chain will have. 120 million is my low-end estimate; the macro Fibonacci is much higher.
The last extension puts it at a 1.4 billion market cap and 266x from where we are now.
This is where you want to be for the upcoming alt season—right here, down 98% with this massive divergence and all these factors that come into play. Just the mainnet launch and ETH going to 10,000 basically sends this to a 30-50 million market cap.
Cult DAO and Satoshi Nakamoto share a common ethos of decentralization and anti-centralization. We need to embrace this notion and bring back the power to the many. If CULT DAO hits 1.4 billion dollars, the treasury funds would be in the millions; we fund our own future.
moduluszk.io
cultdao.io
cultdao.io
coinmarketcap.com
Bitcoin's epic journey to $160K1. Overall Trend
The chart shows a long-term bullish trend for Bitcoin, with the price rising significantly from around $50,000 in early 2023 to approximately $123,130 as of the latest data point (March 18, 2025).
The upward movement is characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong bullish momentum.
2. Price Levels and Targets
The chart highlights a projected target of $160,000, labeled as "Reaching at 160K." This suggests the analyst anticipates a potential breakout or continuation of the current uptrend to this level.
Current price: Approximately $123,130, with previous support/resistance zones marked at $77,917 and $56,707. These levels likely represent significant historical support where accumulation occurred.
3. Technical Patterns
Ascending Triangle: The chart features an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish continuation pattern. The upper resistance line slopes downward slightly, while the lower support line slopes upward, converging toward a breakout point. The recent price action appears to have broken above this triangle, supporting the bullish outlook.
Accumulation Phases: Two distinct accumulation zones are marked:
The first accumulation phase is around the $56,707 - $77,917 range, where the price consolidated before the initial breakout.
The second accumulation phase is near the $100,000 - $120,000 range, followed by a sharp upward move toward the current price and the projected $160,000 target.
4. Support and Resistance
Support: The lower boundary of the ascending triangle and the accumulation zones (e.g., $77,917 and $56,707) act as potential support levels if the price pulls back.
Resistance: The next major resistance is implied at $160,000, where the price may face selling pressure or consolidation before potentially moving higher.
5. Volume and Momentum
While volume data isn’t explicitly shown, the sharp upward move after the breakout from the triangle suggests increasing buying pressure and momentum, typical of a strong bullish trend.
6. Timeframe and Projection
The chart spans from early 2023 to mid-2025, with the $160,000 target likely projected to be reached by mid-2025, aligning with the current trajectory and historical bullish cycles.
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #37👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Today, we're going to analyze Bitcoin and other important crypto indices. In this analysis, as usual, I want to examine the futures triggers for the New York session.
⏳ 1-hour timeframe
In the 1-hour timeframe, as you can see, after breaking 83806, a downward movement occurred, but afterward, it moved upwards again and now has formed a box between 82066 and 83806.
⚡️ Today, we have triggers for both long and short positions because the price has created a good structure for opening positions, and since it's the beginning of the week, volume could enter the market.
✔️ Additionally, we have an ascending trend line that started from the base at 77598 and the price has touched it several times. If this trend line breaks, the price could start a new downward leg.
🔼 For long positions, the first trigger we have is 83806, which could coincide with an RSI of 54.70. However, this trigger is risky and the main trigger for breaking is 84817.
📉 For short positions, a good trigger was created yesterday at 82066. Breaking this area could start the next downward leg to 80105. This trigger is also a trigger for breaking the trend line, and breaking this area could start the next downward leg to 80105. The main trigger is the break of 80105 itself.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Let's move on to the analysis of Bitcoin dominance, as you see, dominance has rejected from the ceiling of 62.03 again and is moving downward. Currently, dominance has again reached 61.53.
🎲 If 61.53 breaks, we can expect dominance to move downward, and on the other hand, if 62.03 breaks, the price can move upward.
✨ In general, a new range box has been formed again, and breaking the floor or ceiling of this box can determine the next price leg.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Let's move on to the analysis of Total2, this index rose from 1.01 yesterday and is moving towards 1.04 again.
💫 The long trigger for today is the break of 1.04, although we should wait until the price reacts to this area once so that the exact number of resistance is revealed, and we can open a position with its break.
🔽 For short positions, you can enter a very good and suitable short position with the break of 1.01.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Let's move on to the analysis of Tether dominance, like Total2, its triggers have not been activated yet and nothing new can be said about it.
🔑 A breakout above 5.43 indicates an upward move and a break below 5.28 indicates a downward move
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Bitcoin drops. What's next?Hello, Traders!
Bitcoin price continues to fall towards the next big support area at 74k-70k.
Currently, there is no sign of BTC reversal, and it seems that this correction phase will last long.
Ideally, the faster BTC finds its local bottom, the faster it starts to rise again.
However, the current market conditions suggest that a period of consolidation might be necessary before a meaningful recovery.
I doubt that the BTC price will fall below 70k despite all the negative sentiment surrounding it at the moment.
More likely, we will see strong buying pressure at those levels, as institutional investors and long-term holders step in to accumulate at what they perceive as a discount.
Also, the stochastic RSI on a weekly scale has dropped to 0, which historically indicates that momentum is oversold and a potential reversal could be near.
If we see a bullish cross on the SRSI on a weekly timeframe, this might act as a catalyst for a price rebound, possibly pushing BTC toward new highs.
Another indication of a possible bottom is the Fear & Greed Index, which currently sits at around 20.
This level reflects extreme fear in the market, a condition that has often preceded local bottoms in previous cycles.
Historically, such extreme fear tends to trigger a shift in sentiment, leading to increased demand and a subsequent price recovery.
Furthermore, on-chain metrics suggest that long-term holders remain unfazed by the recent downturn, with exchange reserves continuing to decline. This indicates that a significant portion of BTC supply is being moved to cold storage, reducing selling pressure.
Additionally, open interest in the futures market has seen a decline, which could mean that excessive leverage is being flushed out—a necessary step for a healthier market structure.
If BTC manages to hold the 70k support level and confirms a reversal with increasing volume, we could see a strong recovery phase unfold.
However, if the price breaks below this key support, the next significant area to watch would be around 65k, where additional buying interest might emerge.
Please don’t forget to boost this idea and leave your comments below.
HelenP. I Bitcoin can drop of resistance line of wedge to $77800Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. A few days ago, the price surged to 99000 before pulling back to the resistance level, which aligned with the resistance zone. Then, BTC broke through the 89500 level, traded below it for a while, and continued its decline toward the support level, which coincided with the support zone. Following this move, Bitcoin started trading inside a wedge pattern and quickly made a strong upward impulse from the support zone, reaching 94900 and breaking the resistance level once again. However, it soon corrected, dropping back below this level, and after attempting to recover, it failed. BTC then began to decline and, in a short time, fell to the support zone, where it reached the trend line. After bouncing off this level, it started to rise again, eventually making a correction to the support level before continuing its upward movement inside the wedge. At this point, I expect BTCUSDT to reach the resistance line of the wedge before reversing and dropping to the trend line, breaking the support level. Based on this, my goal is set at 77800, which coincides with the trend line. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
BITCOIN HEADING TO 77600 LEVELIt seems that there's an atmosphere of panic. When traders see significant price drops, it can lead to a cascade of selling, with more people fearing losses. This fear can create a liquidity trap where those entering long positions are quickly taken out as prices continue to decline.
In such scenarios, liquidations occur when leveraged positions are forcibly closed by exchanges to prevent further losses, which adds even more selling pressure. The cycle can become self-reinforcing; as prices dip, more traders panic and sell, leading to further declines.
Based on this scenario, I am confident in entering a short position with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio toward the 77600 level.
Follow me for more analysis
BITCOIN The 0.5 Fib Golden Rule! This is not a Bear Market yet!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) shook the bullish market sentiment last month, as late February saw it drop aggressively not just from the 109k All Time High (ATH) but also below the key psychological Support of $90000. We have discussed already how the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) coming to its rescue, is the critical Support and rightfully so, but there is also another critical condition that is currently showing incredible strength, keeping BTC into Bull Cycle territory (for now).
That is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level Golden Rule. This suggests that BTC's corrections/ pull-backs up to the 0.5 Fib level are technical and perfectly systemic, especially with the 1W MA50 supporting. If anything, such pull-backs during a Bull Cycle are the most optimal buy opportunities. We are currently on an exact such opportunity as the price hit last week both the 1W MA50 and the 0.5 Fib.
In the past 10 years since the August 2015 Bear Cycle bottom, every correction up to the 0.5 Fib was a buy. In the 4 cases it broke, 2 were the signals of the 2018 and 2022 Bear Cycles and the other 2 signals of the market correcting the bullish overreaction to the Libra (2019) and Musk (2021) rallies. The latter though was still contained above the 1W MA50 and so would the 2019 one if it wasn't for the March 2020 COVID crash.
As a result, we still see no cause for concern (yet) and so far this is the best buy opportunity for Bitcoin since last year and the August 05 2024 Low.
But what do you think? Is this 0.5 Fib Golden Rule coming to push Bitcoin higher to its next ATH? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Double down like Michael Chad Saylor - MSTR ----> MSTU 2X"Are you convicted?"
Of Bitcoin achieving a new All time high if so Saylor will greatly rewarded and lauded.
MicroStrategy's unwavering focus on acquiring Bitcoin through unconventional financing methods, rather than building a sustainable revenue-generating business, carries significant risks, especially if a major bear market were to hit the cryptocurrency sector again. This exposure to Bitcoin offers a distinctive investment opportunity for those looking to gain leverage in the crypto space without direct participation.
While MicroStrategy's inherent volatility may deter more traditional investors, it also provides a platform for those eager to engage with market dynamics. The MSTU adds an additional layer of volatility, but unlike options, it does not have an expiration date.
Investors should closely monitor Bitcoin's market fluctuations, as these directly influence MSTR's stock price, potentially creating advantageous entry points for savvy traders.
The current BTC chart, incorporating my 'flash-crash' thesisThis chart illustrates the current Bitcoin pattern, with my 'April flash crash thesis.'
I believe we will see another thrust lower into the green box ranges before a spring into the fifth wave. However, the fifth wave will be a "false breakout," as a flash crash in mid to late April is likely to occur, intentionally designed to sweep liquidity by liquidating overleveraged positions and triggering stop losses—driving price past the previous low set in the green box, only for the market to recover shortly thereafter and continue its breakout to the upside. This breakout will likely push beyond the pattern, taking out the all-time high, and setting a new high somewhere in the 20K to 25K range.
There could be some opportunities in the next 4 to 6 weeks, but with opportunity comes risk. Always use a proper risk management strategy suited to your skill level and wallet size.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
BITCOIN When unsure, look at the bigger pictureSimple, yet highly informative especially in times of high uncertainty like the current one.
Bitcoin / BTCUSD has a Full Cycle of 4 years.
1 year of Bear and 3 years of Bull.
Right now we have entered the final year of the 3 year Bull Cycle, so we have a few more months left until the end of the year.
Come October, we can start considering a top for BTC.
Until then.. Buy the dip.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Bitcoin Sell SetupHi everyone.
I think this area has a lot of potential to put a sell order. We can set an order or wait for a CHoCH in lower TF and then find another entry setup.
I'll update TPs later.
Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian
Why the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Indicator will not trigger this cycleIn this post, we’ll take a closer look at the Pi Cycle Indicator and explain why we believe it is unlikely to trigger in this cycle. Instead, we present an alternative signal that may better indicate the true Bitcoin top.
Understanding the Pi Cycle Indicator
The Pi Cycle Indicator has historically been highly accurate in predicting Bitcoin cycle tops. It consists of two simple moving averages:
The 111-day simple moving average (SMA) (blue)
The 350-day simple moving average (SMA) multiplied by two (green)
A signal is generated when the 111-day SMA crosses above the multiplied 350-day SMA, which is marked by a red vertical line.
Why This Signal Alone Isn’t Enough
While this signal has been useful in the past, we believe it doesn't provide the full picture—specifically, it doesn’t indicate how strong the crossover is. By transforming this indicator into an oscillator that measures the ratio between these two moving averages, we gain a more nuanced perspective:
In the chart, the green line represents the ratio between the two moving averages. When it crosses above the red horizontal line (ratio > 1), a Pi Cycle signal occurs (marked by a red vertical line). Notably, the 2017 signal was significantly stronger than the 2021 signal, suggesting a pattern of diminishing returns. We highly recommend checking out our post on diminishing returns and the overall timeline for the current cycle here . Additionally, we've developed our own Bitcoin model that factors in the effects of diminishing returns. Check it out here .
The TRUE cycle top signal
The key question is whether this diminishing return is strong enough to prevent a signal from forming in this cycle. Based on our analysis, we believe it is.
By extrapolating this trend into the future using a white diagonal trend line, it becomes clear that the ratio will likely remain below 1, meaning no crossover is expected this cycle.
Instead, we anticipate that the next Bitcoin top will occur at a ratio of approximately 0.9 , as indicated by the orange area on the chart.
In summary, while the Pi Cycle Indicator has been a reliable tool in previous cycles, its diminishing strength suggests that it may not trigger this time. Rather than relying solely on this metric, we suggest considering looking deeper into the true value of this indicator instead.
LONG ON BITCOINMarket structure wise Bitcoin looks like its ready to Rise.
Other political and economic factors are also being looked at as to why I am buying bitcoin.
But Its mainly The Market structure shift Im seeing on the charts that has me hitting buy!
Im looking to make about 7-8k points on BTC.
BITCOIN BULLISH TO $116?! (UPDATE)Since I posted this the other day, Bitcoin has been pushing up in profit!
After a redistribution phase where late buyers got wrecked at the top the market, we've seen price drop back down liquidating billions in buy orders in the past few weeks. I believe this Wave 4 shakeout will now be followed by another bull run, like we are seeing happen now.
BTCUSD: TSI shows that this is the LAST BEST BUYBitcoin is neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 46.997, MACD = 3171.400, ADX = 55.280) as it found support on the 1W MA50 last 3 weeks and is trying to capitalize on this with a bullish reaction. The rebound is closer than ever and in our opinion based on the True Strength Index (TSI), this may be the last best buy opportunity of this Cycle before it tops. The 1W TSI is now on its long term Buy Zone, last time it was there was on the August 5th 2024 bottom.
The TSI basically marks bottoms and tops on the last 3 Cycles in particular. More specifically, it makes 5 tops in total, every time it approaches 1.00, it is a signal to sell and wait for it to approach -1.00. We are now as mentioned the closest we've been to -1.00 in 7 months and we came here from Top 4. The Cycle technically has one more Top (5) to give so practically the current levels are the last best buy opportunity of the Cycle.
From top-to-bottom, the 2014-2017 Cycle lasted 1470 days, the next one (2018-2021) 1430 days, so if there is a declining rate of 40 days on each passing Cycle, we can start expecting a new Cycle Top by September 2025. The price can be at least 130k be then.
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This is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD)This is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) showing a key resistance level around $86,527 and a potential bearish move towards lower support zones.
Analysis:
Price is currently trading near the resistance zone, struggling to break above it.
A sell setup is suggested, expecting rejection from resistance.
The first target is around $78,500, with an extended downside target at $75,869 and possibly $71,580 if momentum continues.
A stop-loss level is placed above resistance at $86,527, indicating a risk management strategy.
The overall structure suggests bearish sentiment unless price breaks above resistance.
Potential Trading Plan:
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Short below resistance confirmation.
Targets at $78,500, $75,869, and $71,580.
Stop-loss above $86,527.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
A break and close above $86,527 could invalidate the bearish setup.
Bitcoin Rebounds Strongly from Key SupportCritical Support Zone:
Bitcoin has rebounded sharply from the $80,000-$78,000 support level, which previously served as the breakout zone in late October 2024. This strong reaction suggests significant buying interest and potentially a higher low within the broader uptrend.
Healthy Market Correction:
After reaching an all-time high of $108,000, Bitcoin experienced a typical bull market retracement of about 30%. The strong bullish engulfing candle at support signals a possible shift back to the upside.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: Holding above $80,000-$78,000 is crucial for maintaining the bullish outlook.
Immediate Resistance: $88,000-$90,000 range.
Upside Target: If bullish momentum continues, Bitcoin could push toward $100,000 in the next phase of its uptrend.
With momentum potentially shifting, Bitcoin is at a decisive point—will it reclaim new highs? Stay tuned! 🚀📈
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