BTCUSD, Are we going to face 35% Correction ?! (Local View)BTCUSD, Are we going to face 35% Correction ?! (Local View)
Let's take a look at local movements on INDEX:BTCUSD .
Since last post Bitcoin moved in our favor, reached 38,500$.
We have a strong bounce here, which is heading towards upper 40s as long as daily close was above big red candle.
There is a probability, that Bitcoin is going to draw lower high which can be anywhere from 38.2 to 61.8 (Golden Pocket) Fib. In confluence we have several magnets at this range.
Possible stop losses around 43,500$
Fair Value Gap around 44,500$. Possible liquidations Across top 3 exchanges (Binance, OKX, Bybit) totaling around 4.0 Bln. USD. (This number covers last 30 Days Data)
Hence we should take into consideration, that huge amount of liquidity is sitting down in the previous reaccumulation zone. (Suggesting to check out Liquidity Heatmap . Putting link because I am not able to add screenshot.)
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Next I want to mention one weird thread I bumped into on Twitter.
It’s about HTX (ex Huobi), which is owned by Justin Sun. They turned off their proof-of-reserves system, what hints about their insolvency. Onchain analysis say that they have problems with ETH holdings.
Also this is not connected to only HTX, things are being wrong with TUSD and stUSDT (Stacked USDT receipt on TRON Network).
For further details about this event please read thread from adamscochran on twitter . Hence there was around 600 Mln. USDT transfer to JustlandDao yesterday.
In the end, I want to mention, that there is no 100% accurate analysis.
We are dealing with probabilities, just with analysis we are shifting probabilities to our favor.
Best Wishes.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
BTCUSD: Phase 4 of Bull Cycle just started.Bitcoin is about to turn neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.562, MACD = -3343.000, ADX = 34.423) as it is making a big 1W comeback on this week's candle following a nearly perfect touch of the 1W MA50. Every test of the 1W MA50, as well as every test of the S1 1W RSI level, has been a straight buy opportunity inside the Bull Cycle's Channel Up since the very begining of the November 2022 bottom.
As first the price action was concentrated on the lower half of the Channel Up (green zone) but since February 2024 it has been primarily on the upper half (blue zone) as the rallies got more aggressive, with the only exceptions being the 1W MA50 tests such as the current one (green Arcs). Every bottom rebound has increased by at least +98.76%, so that gives us a peak estimate of TP = 150,000. An temprary high around 120k and pullback to 100-90k is a possible scenario based on all previous rallies/ Phases. Phase 4, which should technicall be the final of the Bull Cycle, has just started.
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Bitcoin is ABSOLUTELY under Pressure - It MUST react before DECI have been looking at this in detail for some time and have decided to change how I calculate things and here is the result.
There are 2 things of Massive importance to see here.
First is that Curve that PA has been under since 2010
The Lower Dashed Line is the Trend line formed in 2011. It is Strong and it is Valid and PA is currently running along it.
Here is a closer image to show you where we are in relation to it right now. Directly below PA currently, we hit that line around 67K
The Apex of this "Triangle" is December THIS YEAR
PA Has to break Above that Arc, the same Arc that has Rejected PA EVERY TIME since 2011
BUT THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT - IT HAS TO BE and here is why
I am not going to explain the % increase each Cycle Low to ATH, it is in the chart but I do want to show you this,
The first real push of Bitcoin was a massive % rise that created the ATH that formed the 1st point of the Lower Trend line of the New channel. This is A on the chart
The Next push was to B. This push was 1.433% of the Original push A - smaller by a long way in % terms.
These 2 moves created the channel that PA has remained in ever since. ( see dashed upper trend line)
From this point on, we can see that each cycle push , while in channel, has been approx 20% of the previous rise. Or around 1/5 of the size in % terms
Or to put is another way, Each Rise has been a diminishing % rise from previous.
Look at that curve. It has pushed PA down each cycle ATH
This cycle, we are currently at 26.7% of the previous push ( to 2021 ATH ) and it has created a cycle ATH currently.
But is the cycle Over ? - Hopefully NOT
Because if it is NOT over, we need to break through that Curve of resistance by December.
The Much expected 200K ATH is way over that curve and would result in a 55% of previous push rise. That would break the "trend"
This is VERY Different. But Absolutely required.
So, the question that should be on Everyone's lips is "Which is stronger ? The line or the Arc ?"
My expectation is that we will break through. That Arc has been a Major part of the formative years of Bitcoin PA but now, it could prove detrimental. Because, if we do not break through it, It will push Peice DOWN, through that line of Long term support.
We do not want that
SO, Maybe THIS is why the Bulls are waiting for the Weekly MACD to reset to Neutral...PA Needs the strength to break through.
So, Go Buy your Local BULL a Beer ( or white wine lol ) and Lets get on.
Watch this Close. It really is more important that Trumps Reserve, Saylors Love nest or Bezos after burners.................
BITCOIN BULLISH TO $116?! (UPDATE)Since I posted this last night, price of BTC has been pushing up very nicely!
After a redistribution phase where late buyers got wrecked at the top the market, we've seen price drop back down liquidating billions in buy orders in the past few weeks. I believe this Wave 4 shakeout will now be followed by another bull run, like we are seeing happen now.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Tests Key Support Within Downtrend ChannelBitcoin is attempting to stabilize after finding support at the lower boundary of a well-defined descending channel. The price has rebounded +5.44%, climbing back toward the $85,000 level, but remains below the 50-day SMA (94,968), which has acted as dynamic resistance.
Despite today's bounce, BTC remains in a broader downtrend, with both the MACD and RSI showing bearish momentum. The RSI at 42.82 suggests the market is still in neutral-to-weak territory, while the MACD remains in negative territory, confirming downside pressure.
Key Levels to Watch:
📉 Support: 77,000 (200-day SMA), 75,000 (trendline support)
📈 Resistance: 90,000 (mid-channel resistance), 95,000 (50-day SMA)
A breakout above the channel could signal trend reversal, while continued rejection at resistance would keep the bearish bias intact.
-MW
Bullish Quasimodo in Play – Bitcoin’s Next Target: $84,500?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) attacked the Resistance zone($84,130_$81,500) again as I expected yesterday . Has Bitcoin given up or is it gathering momentum to attack the resistance zone again? What do you think?
Bitcoin is moving near Yearly Pivot Point and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($80,537_$78,390) .
From Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin appears to be completing an Expanding Flat(ABC/5-3-5) corrective wave .
According to the Price Action , Bitcoin appears to be completing the Bullish Quasimodo Pattern .
Educational Note : The Bullish Quasimodo Pattern is a reversal pattern that signals a potential uptrend after a downtrend. It forms when the price creates a lower low followed by a higher high and a higher low, confirming a shift in market structure.
I expect Bitcoin will NOT leave the CME Gap($86,400_$84,650) unfilled and will rise to at least $84,500 .
What do you think, will Bitcoin leave this CME Gap($86,400_$84,650)?
Note: If Bitcoin falls below $78,800, we should expect further declines.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
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HelenP. I Bitcoin may grow little and then drop to support areaHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Some time ago, the price rebounded from the resistance level, which aligned with the trend line and resistance zone, attempting to rise. However, it failed and started to decline. Later, BTC dropped to the same resistance level again, broke through it, and then fell to the trend line, which coincided with the support level and support zone. After that, the price made an upward impulse to the resistance zone, followed by a quick correction before reversing and climbing back to the 91300 resistance level. The price consolidated around this level for some time before declining to the 78350 support level. Recently, it turned around and started moving upward again. Given this structure, I expect BTCUSDT to rise slightly before dropping to the support zone and breaking the support level. With this in mind, my target is set in this area - 76500 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Bitcoin can reach resistance line of wedge and then dropHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. This chart illustrates how the price dropped into the buyer zone within an ascending wedge. After that, BTC reversed direction and began to rise, eventually reaching the wedge’s resistance line before making a correction to the support line. The price then made a strong upward impulse, breaking through the resistance level and exiting the ascending wedge. BTC surged to 94800 before reversing and dropping to 82600, breaking through the 87000 level. Following this decline, the price started to recover within a descending wedge and soon reached the resistance line, breaking through another resistance level. However, after this move, BTC reversed again and began to decline, eventually falling back to the 87,000 level, which coincided with the seller zone, where it traded for some time. It then broke through this level and continued declining toward the support level, even entering the buyer zone. BTC also dropped to the support line of the descending wedge before rebounding sharply, breaking above the 80000 support level once again. Currently, the price is continuing its upward movement. Given this setup, I anticipate that Bitcoin will reach the resistance line of the wedge before pulling back to the support level, potentially even lower. For this scenario, my TP is set at 78000. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
BTC/USD Weekly Analysis – Key Levels & Market Structure📌 Major Trend Channel : The price remains within a long-term ascending channel. It recently rejected the upper boundary and is currently testing key support zones.
📌 Key Support Zone: The price is reacting to the SNR - Support level. If this level holds, a potential bounce toward 100,297 (mid-channel level) could be expected.
📌 Order Blocks & Imbalance: There are key liquidity zones, including a discount price imbalance and resistance order block around $55K-$60K, which could act as a magnet in case of further corrections.
📌 Potential Upside Targets: If bullish momentum resumes, the next target aligns with the channel’s 50% level at $100,297, before retesting the upper boundary.
🔍 Overall Bias: Short-term retracement possible, but bullish structure remains intact above $73,969 support.
Risk Warning: Trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure you fully understand the risks and seek independent advice if necessary.
Bitcoin: 84k is an Important Level.Hey Traders. in today's trading session we are monitoring BTCUSDT for a selling opportunity around 84,000 zone, Bitcoin is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 84,000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bitcoin will reach $221,000The chart explicitly labels a "Breakout" point around December 15, 2024, where the price moves above the $80,000 resistance level of the ascending triangle. This breakout is a significant technical event, suggesting strong buying pressure and a continuation of the uptrend. Following the breakout, the chart notes a "Retracement" phase, where the price pulls back to test the breakout level (now acting as support at approximately $80,000). This behavior is common in technical analysis, as prices often retest previous resistance levels after a breakout to confirm support.
As of March 14, 2025, the current price of $80,228.30 is just above the $80,000 level, suggesting the price may be in the early stages of this retracement or has recently stabilized after testing the support. This positioning indicates potential buying opportunities for traders looking for entry points near this level, with expectations of further upward movement.
Projected Price Target: $221,000
One of the most notable annotations on the chart is the "TG $221,000" label, which stands for "Target Price" of $221,000. This target is projected based on the breakout from the ascending triangle, likely calculated by taking the height of the triangle (the difference between the resistance at $80,000 and the lowest support at $55,000, which is $25,000) and adding it to the breakout level ($80,000 + $25,000 = $105,000). However, the chart's projection to $221,000 suggests a more aggressive target, possibly involving a multiple of the height (e.g., 3x the height, $80,000 + $75,000 = $155,000, still not reaching $221,000) or a Fibonacci extension beyond standard calculations.
Given the significant gap between the current price ($80,228.30) and the target ($221,000), this projection is an unexpected detail, implying a potential multi-fold increase in Bitcoin's value. It aligns with the chart's bullish patterns but involves considerable uncertainty, as market conditions, macroeconomic factors, and adoption rates could influence actual price movements.
Additional Technical Observations
Beyond the ascending channel and triangle, the chart includes several other technical elements:
Support and Resistance Levels: The $80,000 level, initially a resistance during the triangle, becomes a key support level post-breakout. The lower trendline of the ascending channel also acts as dynamic support throughout the uptrend, providing a floor for price corrections.
Volume Indicator (Implied): While not explicitly shown, breakouts like the one labeled are often accompanied by increased volume, which would confirm the strength of the move. Without a visible volume histogram, this remains an inference.
Fibonacci Retracement (Potential): The retracement after the breakout could be analyzed using Fibonacci levels (e.g., 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) to identify key support zones, though these are not drawn on the chart.
Momentum and Moving Averages (Implied): Although not visible, momentum indicators like RSI or MACD could provide additional insights. For instance, a strong breakout might correlate with overbought RSI, while the retracement could indicate a return to neutral levels. Moving averages (e.g., 50-day, 200-day) might have supported the uptrend earlier, with the price potentially approaching these for support during retracements.
Implications for Traders
The analysis suggests Bitcoin is in a robust bullish trend, supported by the ascending channel, triangle breakout, and projected target. Traders may consider the following strategies:
Buy on Pullbacks: Look for buying opportunities near the $80,000 support level, especially if volume and other indicators confirm buying pressure.
Target Setting: Use the projected target of $221,000 as a long-term goal, but be mindful of market volatility and external factors that could affect price.
Risk Management: Given the significant gap to the target, set stop-loss levels below key support (e.g., below $80,000) to manage risk.
AriasWave Market Update - You Might Want To Watch This... Part 1In this video, I'm finally breaking my silence. I can’t hold back my bearish outlook any longer, so I’m launching a series of videos to break down exactly why I see trouble ahead and what it could mean.
While I won’t cover everything in this first video, I’m kicking off the conversation now that the floodgates are open—thanks, in part, to the circus in Washington, D.C. (or so you think). From crypto and stocks to bond yields and beyond, I’ll cover it all.
Stay tuned so you’re not left chasing false hope in a dead-cat bounce.
BITCOIN BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
BITCOIN SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 82,814.63
Target Level: 81,400.41
Stop Loss: 83,754.73
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BITCOIN Is this a Falling Wedge bottom formation?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading since the February 28 Low within a Falling Wedge pattern, below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and at the same time supported by the 1W MA50 (red trend-line).
Throughout its dominant Bull Cycle pattern, the +2 year Channel Up, it has formed another 6 such Falling Wedges, all below the 1D MA50 and all turned out to be market bottom formations, which paved the way for an immediate bullish break-out. On all occasions, the 1D CCI has been almost as low as on the February Low.
The shortest rebound it made before another break below the 1D MA50, was +26.68% and the highest was +106.96%. As a result this gives us a minimum immediate potential Target of $96800 and a maximum of a little more than $150000. Given that the price has touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, like the bottom formations of September 06 2024 and September 11 2023, it is quite likely to see the stronger rebound probability taking place.
But what do you think would be the case? Is this a classical Falling Wedge bottom break-out formation and if so what may be the Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #33👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro!
Let's dive into the Bitcoin analysis and other key crypto indices. Today, I'm bringing you the analysis earlier than usual and will be looking at the triggers for both the London and New York sessions.
⚡️ Yesterday, one of our triggers was activated but unfortunately hit the stop loss. However, we have another trigger today, so let's go ahead and analyze it.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
In the 1-hour timeframe, as you can see, yesterday's trigger at 81466 was activated and you could have opened a position with it. I personally opened a position on Ethereum, and my position is near the stop loss. Bitcoin was supported at the 80105 area and has moved back above 81466.
📊 The market volume has significantly decreased in bullish candles, indicating that this upward movement might just be a deep correction because if the 81466 area was going to break definitively, we would have seen significant buying momentum and volume enter the market, but that didn't happen and this upward movement is accompanied by severe trend weakness.
🔽 Currently, for a short position, with the break of 80105, you can open a position. This area is one where the price reacted yesterday after significant bearish momentum, so it's a suitable demand zone and breaking this area could see the price move towards the target of 77598.
📈 For long positions, the main trigger remains 83979, and breaking this area could bring significant momentum and volume into the market. Potential targets for a long position are 86440 and 91558.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Let's move on to the analysis of Bitcoin dominance. Yesterday, dominance continued to decline, dropping to 61.53 but is currently forming green candles and moving upwards slightly.
💥 There hasn't been much structure created yet, and we can't give a trigger for the dominance to turn bullish yet, but breaking the 61.53 area could initiate the next bearish leg.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Moving on to the analysis of Total2, yesterday's Total2 trigger was not activated and the same triggers we have for altcoins are still suitable.
The reason for this is that Bitcoin's dominance was bearish, which led to Bitcoin dropping more than altcoins, and the short trigger for it was activated, but Total2 remains above this area.
✔️ For a short position, you can enter if the break below 984 occurs, and for long positions, breaking 1.01 would be suitable.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Finally, let's look at the analysis of Tether dominance. As you can see, yesterday its trigger was activated, and a fake break occurred.
🎲 However, as you can see, after the 5.49 area was faked, the price was rejected with a green candle, and it reacted to this area, so I still keep the USDT.D resistance area at 5.49 and will wait to see how dominance reacts to different areas.
🧲 The bearish confirmation of Tether dominance is clear, and with a break of 5.33, we can confirm it. For the dominance to turn bullish, the area is still 5.49, but wait until the price shows a reaction to this area to fine-tune your main trigger.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
BTC/S&P500 weekly looking like August 2020Two wedges/triangles being retestet after a breakout.
The one in 2019/2020 was more like a triangle as it had a steeper upper line down slope and was way shorter then this current one.
However August 2020 S&P500 was not going down like it does now.
Note that BTC nearly never goes up when S&P goes down.
Could mean that S&P is done going down soon aswell if this pattern were to play out similar to 2020.