Bitcoin Flips $94K Into Support — Bullish Momentum BuildsStructure Strengthens:
Bitcoin's technical structure has improved significantly, with price now holding firmly above the $94,000 level — a former resistance that has flipped into solid support after multiple successful retests.
Bullish Trend Confirmation:
This move reinforces the ongoing bullish trend, driven by a broad bottoming formation from February to April and a clear series of higher lows since March.
Investor Confidence:
The consistent accumulation signals strong buying interest from long-term investors, suggesting that market participants are positioning for further upside.
Outlook & Targets:
As long as Bitcoin maintains levels above $94,000, the bullish outlook remains intact. The next near-term targets lie in the $110,000–$115,000 range.
Bitcoin appears well-positioned for the next leg of its rally. 🚀📈
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishTrend #Support #Breakout #MarketUpdate #PriceAction #CryptoMarket
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
Hellena | BITCOIN (4H): LONG to resistance area of 101,000.Dear colleagues, in the coming week I expect price to continue rising in wave “5”. I think that wave “3” is already completed and now we are witnessing a small correction.
Reaching the resistance area of 101,000 will be the end of the big “ABC” correction.
The 91,601 area could be a good support area to complete the correction.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Bitcoin Update – Textbook Patterns Playing OutIn last week’s Bitcoin idea, I highlighted a key technical setup: price retested the neckline of a massive inverted Head & Shoulders pattern and launched a strong move upward. Let’s dive into what’s unfolding on the daily chart.
We’re seeing classic Wyckoff consolidation behavior—appearing right before the breakout and again after the neckline retest. Multiple smaller Head & Shoulders patterns have also formed and hit their targets cleanly.
The Volunacci pattern came alive after a precise bounce from the Golden Zone, adding more fuel to the bullish narrative.
Next major level in focus: $120K. Will Bitcoin reach it? Let the market decide.
Welcome to ALT SEASON (Real) | BTC.D & ETH/BTCCRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is rejecting off 2021 POI and deviating this cycle's high having just closed the weekly under 64%. Coupled with CRYPTOCAP:ETH strength showing signs of a trend reversal after downtrending for 4-year against $BTC. Likely see CRYPTOCAP:ETH trade upwards of US$5000 this year as ETH outperforms BTC.
BTC: Potential Dip into FVGs Before New ATHBitcoin has rocketed from ~$94 000 to ~$103 250 in just days and is now consolidating between $102 364–$104 145. A Swing Failure Pattern at the top suggests a corrective pullback into one of three Fair Value Gaps aligned with key Fibonacci retracements, before the next leg up toward a fresh all-time high. This setup uses structure, inefficiency zones, and Fib levels to pinpoint high-probability entries.
📊 Chart Breakdown
1. Current Picture: Consolidation & Warning ⚠️
- Range: $102 364 – $104 145
- Swing Failure Pattern (SFP): Price briefly wicks above $104 145 to grab liquidity, then reverses. This classic liquidity hunt often precedes a deeper retrace as late bulls are stopped out.
2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – Untested Support Zones 🌊
FVGs are rapid imbalance areas where price left gaps in the order book. These zones act like magnets, drawing price back to “fill” inefficiencies.
FVG 1 (Nearest): $101 700 – $102 364
FVG 2 (Mid-Zone): $99 900 – $100 600
FVG 3 (Deepest): $97 400 – $98 700
3. Fibonacci Confluences (from $93 377 → $104 145) 📏
Fibonacci retracement levels often align with FVGs to form confluence support—ideal for swing entries.
0.786 Fib @ $101 840.65: Sits squarely in FVG 1, a high-probability bounce zone.
0.618 Fib @ $100 031.62: Golden Ratio within FVG 2, offering strong support.
0.5 Fib @ $98 761 & 0.382 Fib @ $97 490.38: Cover top and mid-lower FVG 3 for a deep corrective entry.
📈📉 Navigating the Next Moves: Key Trade Scenarios 🧭
Given the current structure, with the SFP indicating a potential short-term top and strong FVG/Fibonacci confluences below, here are two primary scenarios we can watch for:
Scenario 1: The Short-Term Pullback Play (Short Position 📉🐻)
Concept: Capitalizing on the SFP at the consolidation high (~$104,145) to trade the anticipated dip towards the FVG/Fibonacci support clusters.
Aggressive Entry: Look for entries around $103,500 – $103,900 if price retests the upper part of the consolidation after the SFP, showing weakness.
Conservative Entry: A break below the consolidation low (~$102,364) could offer a confirmation entry, potentially on a retest of this broken level as resistance.
Stop-Loss 🛑: Place above the SFP high, e.g., $104,450 – $104,650, to protect against a false breakdown.
Profit Targets (FVG Zones) 🎯
TP1: The top of FVG 1 / 0.786 Fib area (~$102,300 – $101,840). This zone is critical.
TP2: The FVG 2 / 0.618 Fib area (~$100,600 – $100,030) if TP1 is breached with momentum.
Trade Management & Considerations 🤔:
Entry Confirmation: Watch for bearish price action on lower timeframes (e.g., 15m/1H rejection wicks, bearish engulfing) near the SFP high.
Profit Taking: Consider taking partial profits at TP1. The reaction here is crucial.
Reversal/Close Short: If price enters TP1 and shows strong bullish rejection (large wicks, engulfing bull candles, volume spike), close the short and prepare to flip to the long scenario.
Holding for TP2: If price slices through TP1 with sustained bearish pressure, trail your stop above TP1 once it’s clearly broken.
Invalidation: If price reclaims and holds above $104,650, the short thesis is invalidated.
Scenario 2: The FVG Rebound & Rally (Long Position 📈🐂)
Concept: Entering on the expectation that one of the FVG/Fibonacci confluence zones will hold as support, leading to a rebound and continuation of the larger uptrend.
Potential Entry Zones 📍:
Zone A (Primary): FVG 1 / 0.786 Fib area ($101,700 – $102,364, sweet spot ~$101,840).
Zone B (Secondary): FVG 2 / 0.618 Fib area ($99,900 – $100,600, sweet spot ~$100,030).
Stop-Loss 🛑:
If entering in Zone A: Place below FVG 1, e.g., $101,350 – $101,150.
If entering in Zone B: Place below FVG 2, e.g., $99,600 – $99,400.
Profit Targets 🎯:
TP1: Back to the consolidation high / SFP area (~$104,145).
TP2: The key resistance zone ($104,675 – $106,500).
TP3 (Ultimate): The All-Time High ($109,588).
Trade Management & Considerations 🤔:
Entry Confirmation: Do not blindly enter. Wait for price to enter your chosen FVG zone AND then show clear bullish confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., 1H/4H bullish engulfing, hammer, RSI divergence).
Zone Prioritization: Zone A is the first test. If it fails and breaks down, Zone B becomes the next area of interest.
Profit Taking & Scaling Out: Take partial profits at TP1 and again at TP2 to secure gains.
Risk Reduction: After TP1 is hit, move your stop-loss to breakeven or slightly in profit.
Invalidation: A decisive break below $99,400 invalidates the bounce thesis and suggests a deeper correction.
🎯 Execution Notes
- Patience & Confirmation: Avoid “blind” entries. Seek volume confirmation and clear reversal candle patterns on 1H/4H charts.
- Risk Management: Define stops before entry and size positions to risk no more than 1–2% per trade.
- Additional Signals: Watch for bullish RSI/RSI-MFI divergences or a turn in on-balance volume at support zones.
Disclaimer: This is for educational/informational purposes only and not financial advice. Crypto trading carries high risk—always DYOR and consult a qualified advisor.
What’s your take? Which FVG/Fib level will hold? Share your insights below!
$BTC Post Death Cross PA Has NOT Confirmed 200DMA - Must Read!Throughout Bitcoin's history it has had 11 Death Crosses (50DMA crossing under 200DMA), and 10 of those times price has retested the 200DMA within ~3 months (with 1 outlier).
Do you know what time it did NOT retest the 200DMA? You might have guessed it… this most recent death cross ☠️
The only outlier that price did not retest the 200DMA within ~3 months was in 2015, where it took nearly a year to retest.
In that time, CRYPTOCAP:BTC ripped 200% just 75 days later, which marked the start of the PARABOLA.
This is why I have been so adamant with sticking to my base case for Bitcoin’s next move.
Is this time different? 🥸
Will it take nearly a year to retest the 200DMA?
An interesting observation I found was that if we take 90D from the most recent death cross, it brings us out to July 6th, which is right around when the 90-day pause of tariffs is lifted 🧐
Having said all that, if PA confidently breaks above and confirms previous ATH (~$110k), I will lean towards the 2015 outlier for the 200DMA retest, which would put us into late Q1 2026.
That would line up nicely with a suspected top of the cycle 🥲
WHAT’S NEXT FOR BITCOINTHE FULL PICTURE: WHAT’S NEXT FOR BITCOIN, ALTS & VOLATILITY?
May 11 – June 7
If we connect all the dots — Bitcoin price action, volatility spikes, altcoin rotation, the DXY (dollar index) behavior, and USDT dominance — here’s what the next few weeks really look like:
⸻
May 11–14
Silence before the storm
Bitcoin slightly goes up
Target zone: $105K – $109K
Volatility is LOW
😴📈
⸻
May 15–17
🚨 First dump begins
BTC starts fading
Volatility increases FAST
Target wick: $95K – GETTEX:97K
⚡️📉
⸻
May 17–21
Bitcoin bounces — but gently
Max target for this “relief” pump: $103-105K
Volatility drops again
🚫 Don’t expect new highs
🪤📈🧠
⸻
May 21–25
💥 THE BIG ONE
Volatility spikes again
BTC enters full-blown macro correction
Bottom likely lands on May 25 or 17
💀🔻
⸻
May 25 – June 2
Here comes the altcoin window
BTC UP → BTC dominance DOWN
Alts can finally PUMP again — for a moment
🚀💎🔥
⸻
June 2 – June 7
Final flush begins
4H timeframe screams collapse!
Volatility explodes
BTC likely breaks new monthly lows
Alts get obliterated
☠️📉🌊
⸻
Meanwhile… the Dollar Index (DXY)
Bottoms around May 25–28 or early June
This confirms short-term tailwind for risky assets
But once it turns up again — risk is OFF
⏳💵📊
⸻
USDT Dominance
USDT dominance turns around from May 12 and rises through July
This means people will start fixing their profits and shifting back to USDT — expect selling pressure
🔄💰📉
⸻
You’ve been warned ⚔️⏱️
BITCOIN - Price can correct to support line of rising channelHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago, the price entered a triangle, where it dropped to the support line, after which it rose briefly to the resistance line.
Then, price exited from the triangle pattern and made a retest at once, after which it corrected $81500 level.
Next, price some time traded near this level and later fell below, but soon turned around and started to grow inside a rising channel.
In channel BTC broke the $81500 level and later rose to the $93000 level, which broke soon too, and then made a retest.
Later price bounced and continued to grow, and now it trades near the resistance line of a rising channel.
Possibly, BTC can grow a little more and then make a correction movement to $99000
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Do you think I'm joking ???I might be wrong and this might never happen, but it might come true From a technical perspective!!!
REMEMBER
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
_ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #88👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s dive into the analysis of Bitcoin and key crypto indexes. As usual, in this analysis I want to review the futures triggers for the New York session.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
In the 1-hour timeframe, as you can see, Bitcoin has formed a slightly better structure and it seems to be undergoing a trend-aligned correction.
✔️ A trend-aligned correction happens when the market enters a corrective phase, but the sellers are so weak that they can’t even stop the price from rising during the correction, and the price gradually moves upward.
🔑 In this case, since the market is in a corrective phase, if we enter with a tight stop loss, we are likely to get stopped out due to the nature of corrections. So it's better to open positions with a wider stop loss so it doesn't get triggered easily.
📊 One thing to note on the current Bitcoin chart is that we are very close to its most important resistance at 106247. This zone is a very strong supply area, and I think breaking through it won’t be easy.
⚡️ So for now, I suggest not opening any new positions on Bitcoin and instead using dominance charts to open positions on altcoins.
📈 If you already have an open position, I recommend keeping your Bitcoin position open, because if 106247 breaks, your position could become highly profitable.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Let’s move on to Bitcoin dominance. Yesterday, after breaking the 63.61 level, there was another downward leg down to the 62.65 area, and altcoins made another upward move.
⭐ Currently, the dominance is correcting and has risen to the 63.29 area. I think it’s going through a slight correction since its drop was sharp and needs a bit of a breather.
💥 However, if the 62.65 low gets broken, we can take it as confirmation of the next bearish leg, and if that happens, we can again open positions on altcoins.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Now to the Total2 analysis. Yesterday, this index got rejected from the 1.24 top and slightly corrected, but it hasn’t reached the 1.17 area which overlaps with the 0.236 Fibonacci level, so we still haven’t confirmed the start of a correction.
✨ In my opinion, as long as we stay above the 0.382 level, the uptrend remains strong. Only after breaking below this area will we confirm the start of a deeper correction.
🔼 For continuation of the trend, breaking above 1.24 would allow us to open positions on altcoins.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Now to Tether dominance. This index also broke below 4.63 yesterday and dropped to 4.51, and is currently correcting.
🧩 To get confirmation from Tether dominance, a break below 4.51 would signal that we can open long positions on altcoins.
🎲 The simultaneous break of 4.51 and 1.24 could be a strong confirmation if dominance continues to decline.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
GOLD - The Timeless Standard Bitcoin Can Only Dream Of ✨💰
1/ Bitcoin’s Aspirations vs. Gold’s Reality
Bitcoin proclaims to be “digital gold” , promising decentralization and stability. But the truth is clear: while Bitcoin is shaken by extreme wealth concentration and constant media hype, gold has built a centuries-long reputation for trust and enduring value. 🔥🏆
2/ The Digital Gold Revolution
Gold isn’t a relic—it's evolved! 🚀 Today, through blockchain tokenization, you can own digital gold that’s 100% backed by physical gold safely stored in vaults. 🏦🔐 This fusion of ancient value and modern tech shows that gold means business, while Bitcoin just tries to copy its legacy.
3/ Concentration vs. Distribution
Check this out: over 90% of Bitcoin is hoarded by a few whales 🐋, leaving everyday holders with crumbs. In contrast, gold’s market has naturally spread out over centuries of global trade. 🌍📈 This organic distribution reinforces stability and genuine market confidence.
4/ Liquidity, Custody & Security
🔹 Gold Is Easy to Custody
Gold is already stored securely in banks and reputable vaults all over the world, and its ownership transfers digitally. You can withdraw or trade anytime without relying on untrustworthy crypto exchanges or wallets vulnerable to hacks . 🔓💼 Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s security is often subject to risks and platform issues.
5/ Real-World Utility vs. Speculative Hype
Gold isn’t just an asset—it’s a workhorse! ⚙️ From use in electronics to medicine and aerospace, gold’s real-world applications generate organic demand. No aggressive, 24/7 hype machine is needed here. In contrast, Bitcoin runs on media-fueled life support, with bots and influencers relentlessly (and tediously) pushing its narrative . 😴📢
6/ Stability You Can Count On
Gold has weathered economic storms with calm resilience 🌪️➡️☀️, proving itself as the ultimate safe haven. Bitcoin, however, is notorious for its wild 80%+ price crashes, making it a volatile bet for long-term wealth preservation. 🏛️💚
7/ Finite Supply: Strength or Vulnerability?
Bitcoin’s fixed supply is often touted as a key advantage. Yet this scarcity makes it vulnerable to manipulation by a few major holders. 😬 Gold, on the other hand, sees a natural and gradual expansion through mining, ensuring a balanced, organic market flow. ⚖️🌿
8/ Institutional Adoption: Not the Magic Fix
State and corporate Bitcoin deals are usually quiet, behind-the-scenes OTC transactions that rarely impact open market prices. 🤫 Gold’s widespread institutional acceptance is built on centuries of trust and real-world use—no constant screaming into the void required. 📣🚫
9/ Gold: No Need for Hype, Just Legacy
Gold stands proudly without the constant need for promotion. 🌟 Its legacy of stability, digital adaptability, and secure custody speaks volumes. Bitcoin, burdened by relentless crypto spam and hype, can only watch from the sidelines. 🎭🗣️
10/ Invest in Timeless Security
When it comes to long-term wealth preservation, gold is your steadfast asset. It offers proven security, with both digital tokenization and secure physical storage, ensuring smooth withdrawals and trades every step of the way. 🏦🔐 Bitcoin, by contrast, survives on a steady diet of media noise and desperate promotions. 🚑🤖
Gold remains the reliable, time-tested choice in today’s fast-paced world of trends and fleeting hype. Whether you’re safeguarding your wealth or seeking an asset that seamlessly bridges digital innovation with physical security, gold’s enduring legacy is the real deal. 🌟💎
If you’d like to explore how tokenized gold is revolutionizing traditional finance or uncover more about its industrial applications and secure custody mechanisms, there’s always another layer of brilliance waiting to be discovered. 🚀🔍
TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER INDEX:BTCUSD NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:MARA NASDAQ:COIN CRYPTO:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
SOLUSDT | 1 DAY | SWING TRADING Hey friends!
I’ve put together a detailed analysis on Solana just for you. The harmonic pattern has completed, and we’ve already seen some strong buying from that exact zone. 📈
Now, I’ve got two targets for you:
🎯 Target 1: 170.00
🎯 Target 2: 219.00
🔴 STOP: 75,81
"Just a heads-up — since this is a swing trade, the target might take some time to hit. Good to keep that in mind."
Remember, the more love and likes I get from you, the more motivated I am to keep sharing these analyses. All I ask is for a simple like to show your support. 💙
Huge thanks to everyone supporting with their likes — I truly appreciate it!
Bitcoin Breaks Wedge! Correction Coming Before Next Leg? After Trump said in the press conference, " Better go out and buy stocks now ." The SPX500 index started pumping , and as I said in the ideas of the last few days, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT )'s correlation with this index has increased. Bitcoin also started pumping.
Yesterday's Bitcoin pump succeeded in failing the Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern , generally, if the reversal pattern fails, it will play a continuation role .
Bitcoin is moving between the Support zone($100,270-$97,700) and the Resistance zone($109,588-$105,865) . The question is whether Bitcoin will touch the Support zone($100,270-$97,700) again and move towards the Resistance zone($109,588-$105,865) or will it continue its upward trend.
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin has completed microwave 3 of the main wave 5 . We can expect an even Time Correction on Saturday and Sunday when trading volume is low . There is also a possibility that microwave 4 of the main wave 5 in Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($101,838-$101,432) will be completed.
One of the reasons I think we should wait for a correction is the USDT.D% ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ) chart, which we used as a guide in previous ideas .
USDT.D% has reached Monthly Support(1) and a Heavy Support zone(4.73%-4.50%) , which I believe is unlikely to be broken within in first attack , and I expect an increase to the Fibonacci lines on the chart.
I expect Bitcoin to start rising again after a correction .
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $105,114-$104,100
Note: If Bitcoin touches $97,500, we should expect further declines.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 2-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
(BTC) Technical Outlook: Imminent ATH ReversalBitcoin’s rejection at ~$105 000 completes a classic A–B–C corrective pattern in a low-liquidity zone. Failure to hold $90 000–$85 000 will likely trigger a rapid decline toward the primary support at $32000. Only a weekly close above $105 000 on strong volume would invalidate this bearish outlook.
This Has Happened To Bitcoin Dominance ...And Alts Are Ripping!Trading Fam,
For the first time since December of 2024 Bitcoin Dominance has dropped from this ascending channel ...and the drop is nothing to be scoffed at! Dominance has dropped and it dropped hard, possibly signaling that finally, for the first time in 4 and a half long years, altcoin season may be starting!
Now, I know this altcoin season will probably not be like those we have seen in the past. There are simply too many altcoins out there. This will dilute the market in ways we have not experienced in the past. Nevertheless, the best of the best will shine bright and will be where money is made.
This is just the beginning. If Bitcoin dominance continues its trend downward (and I believe it will), I see the best altcoins doing 10-20x from here. And yes, some of these will be memecoins - Fartcoin, SPX6900, Trump come to mind (to name just a very small few).
If you are not in the game right now, I'd suggest preparing yourself. This stuff is going to take off so fast that it will make heads spin. FOMO will be rife. You've had 4 and a half long years to study and do your research, now it the time to put all of that knowledge to the test.
I suspect the cycle will be quick. Like 6-8 months quick. While Bitcoin continues to make steadfast gains and all the attention, headlines, and focus remain on it, Altcoins will start to scream in the background. Our new SEC chairman is crypto friendly. Age old illegal lawsuits by Gary S.(Satan) Gensler and the SEC are being lost or dropped at an exponential rate. This freeing effect will enrich the crypto community in ways never imagined.
Don't give up now. This is not the end. We are only beginning.
If there is anything that I have learned over my years of investing in future thinking products and assets it's that the collective is extremely slow in adapting technologies that will be the future. On average, the collective is often 15-20 years behind. The collective is nervous, unsure, anxious, hesitant, and doubtful. But we've known all along that crypto is the future. Believe. This is the beginning. Good things are about to happen to those who have been patient.
Best,
✌️ Stew
BTC in 17 April 2025Potential Major Move on Thursday, April 17, 2025 📍
📊 Based on an analysis of historical Bitcoin chart averages and similar patterns, there is a likelihood of a significant price movement on this date.
This analysis is conducted using technical analysis and a detailed examination of Bitcoin’s movement averages. It suggests that approximately every 150 days after the start of a neutral trend, we can expect a sharp upward or downward move that sets the stage for the main trend in the future.
📅 As of the current date, March 29, 2025, there are about 18 days left until this significant event.
You can follow the results of this analysis and the conducted review on TradingView on the specified date.
Bitcoin Potential Continuation To The UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring BTCUSDT for a buying opportunity around 100,000 zone, Bitcoin is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 100,000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
BITCOIN Has Unfinished Business Below $74K! Will It Return?Key Disclaimer: Inefficiencies Don’t Need to Be Filled
Let’s set the stage clearly: inefficiencies like the one at $73,624.98–$74,420.69 for BTCUSD do not HAVE to be filled.
They’re a TENDENCY, not a rule, an intriguing opportunity to explore high-probability zones. If Bitcoin doesn’t return to this level, no harm is done; but this is a very good opportunity to analyze the term, as such... let’s break it down.
What Is an Inefficiency?
An inefficiency, or sometimes a fair value gap (FVG), is a price range with "minimal" trading activity, often caused by a rapid move—here, a rally—creating a liquidity imbalance. On the weekly BTCUSD chart, this area between wicks spans $73,624.98 to $74,420.69, likely formed during a sharp rally around April 2025.
This untested range makes it a potential target for future price action, as markets often seek to resolve such imbalances. Notably, the price has already approached this zone, and there’s a chance it may never return. However, around $74,400, there are still some “unfinished things to do”, untested liquidity, or orders, which could draw the price back if conditions align.
Why Do Inefficiencies Attract Price?
Inefficiencies often act as magnets for price due to:
Liquidity Seeking: Markets revisit areas with unfilled liquidity (stop-loss or pending orders) to balance supply and demand.
Market Memory: Traders and algorithms, target these levels, reinforcing their significance.
Mean Reversion: After rapid rallies, the price may retrace to test imbalances before continuing. (atm we are probably too far from it but still keep this area in your minds)
Institutional Activity: Large players might re-enter at these levels, making them key zones for reversals or consolidation.
Historically, assets tends to revisit such areas, as the chart notes.
BTCUSD Context: $103,000 with Bullish Momentum
As of May 10, 2025, BTCUSD is at ~$103,200 on the weekly chart, on the way to confirm a weekly breakout above $100,000, supported by higher highs, an ascending channel, and macro factors ( for example ETF inflows), signaling quite a strong momentum.
The inefficiency at $73,624.98–$74,420.69 is 28–29% below the current price, a deep pullback that might require a catalyst like a macro correction, negative crypto news, or profit-taking. Given the price has already approached this zone, it may not return, but the “unfinished business” around $74,400 keeps it on the radar. Still, strong trends can bypass inefficiencies, and factors like time decay or adoption may drive prices higher.
Trading Approach, Short-, Mid-Term Investors Take Your Profits!
This formation of inefficiency is not a prediction to short, it’s an opportunity to monitor.
Still, if you’re a short- to mid-term investor, it might be a smart move to take some profits here and observe what unfolds next.
Right now, we’re potentially seeing a double top forming around major psychological levels. And to be honest, the inefficiency below (shown on the chart) still lingers in the back of my mind.
People often ask me: “When is a good time to take profits?”
My answer? Now. It is a perfect example and it fits to all assets.
And here's why. There are clear scenarios that help remove the guesswork:
1. You sell now, and the price continues to rally higher.
That’s not a problem. By selling, you’ve reduced your risk, and securing your profits - always a smart move.
If the price breaks above $100K, you can always buy it back after a confirmed breakout and retest.
That’s a strong sign that investors are willing to pay higher prices for BTC, and historically, after such breakouts (like with the $50K level in August 2024), the market tends to come back to retest that breakout zone.
Of course, if you’re a long-term investor with a 3-5+ year horizon, you may choose to ride it out. In that case, trying to time this might just be over-managing your position. There’s always a chance BTC won’t retest $100K again.
2. The best-case scenario if you take profits now:
You get the chance to buy back lower.
If the market pulls back, keep that inefficiency level in mind—there’s also a mid-term trendline, previous yearly highs, and other technical elements that haven’t been tested yet.
Traders’ psychology hasn’t really been pushed to the limits at this stage, and in my view, the crypto market loves to test limits.
So if you’re a short- or mid-term investor who bought in at lower levels, this is a good time to seriously consider locking in some profits.
Step back, and let the price action guide the next move.
Listen—just listen.
Conclusion
Inefficiencies like the one between $73,624 and $74,420 don’t demand to be filled—but they’re worth understanding, tracking, and learning from. Whether price revisits that zone or not, the real value lies in recognizing where the market has moved too fast and what that might mean if momentum shifts.
Right now, BTCUSD is strong. But strength can fade, sentiment can shift, and “unfinished business” below still holds weight for traders who think in probabilities, not certainties.
If you’re in profit—especially from lower levels—this might be one of those moments to pause, and make sure greed isn’t driving your next decision.
Whether this zone becomes just a memory or a brilliant case study, it’s already a valuable example of how understanding market structure helps you stay a step ahead—not a step behind.
Stay alert. Stay humble. And as said… listen.
Cheers,
Vaido
my idea about btc in secound half of 2025Dear followers,
I’ve analyzed BTC’s recent price movements and on-chain indicators, and I’d like to share my outlook for the second half of 2025. Based on my technical and macroeconomic assessment, I anticipate a significant correction before a strong rebound later in the year.
Key Highlights:
Sell Zone: I expect BTC to reach around $108,000 during a bullish run, where I recommend taking profits and initiating a short position.
Correction Phase: Following the peak, I foresee a correction bringing BTC down to approximately $69,000. This presents a deep buy opportunity for those looking to accumulate at lower levels.
Target for Rebound: Post-correction, I project a strong rally towards $140,000, driven by renewed institutional interest and market fundamentals.
Trading Strategy:
Consider selling or reducing holdings near the $108K level.
Be prepared to accumulate during the dip around $69K.
Aim for the $140K target on the rebound, aligned with overall bullish momentum.
Please note that all trading involves risk, and it's essential to manage your positions carefully. Stay tuned for updates, and always do your own research before making trading decisions.
Let me know your thoughts or if you'd like a deeper analysis!