Bitcoin Part1: bearish Trade Short termBitcoin Macro Index' bear signal puts $110K BTC price return in doubt
Fact is: Bitcoin and ether drop amid grim inflation outlook, tariff uncertainty midterm to long term, as long the white house continues its policy.And PRES: trump cannot prevent it.
A positive change of the white house policy, and improving its relationshipsto other nations,instead putting them with tariffs, will be a boosting positive cataylst also for crypto,specially Bitcoin. Bitcoin has lost in trust of new investors ,specially since 21st of January 2025.
Also participating of Pres. trump in crypto summits had no positive significant signals ,specilly not for Bitcoin.Instead Bitcoin lost now more than 34% since Nov. 2025.
Also many crypto fans are very disappointed about developement of their crypto performances.
Promise gave,Promise ,,NOT,,kept!
It wIll be a very volatile time ahead.
Therefor I prepare for both scenarios:Bullish/Bearish short term.
This is part 1:bEARISH STRATEGY:
Below 78k...bearish momentum will gain more on momentum.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
Bitcoin - EMA Support Holding Strong!#BTC/USD #Analysis
Description
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BTC/USD – Weekly Chart Analysis
📉 Current Price: $82,239 (-4.47%)
📈 Key Moving Averages:
🔹 EMA 20: 88,143
🔹 EMA 40: 81,116
🔹 SMA 50: 76,230
EMA Support Holds Strong – The chart highlights multiple historical instances where BTC found support at the 20-40 EMA zone (orange circles). This pattern has played out consistently in past market cycles.
- Bullish Trend Continuation – Each time BTC has tested this EMA region on a pullback, it has led to strong recoveries and further bullish momentum.
- Current Market Structure – BTC is once again testing this key EMA support zone. A bounce from here could signal a continuation of the uptrend.
- Historical Patterns Repeat – The blue shaded region and Vector Algo's AI-optimized signals indicate that similar setups have resulted in upward moves.
✅ Bullish Scenario: If BTC holds above the EMA 40 ($81,000) and forms bullish confirmation candles, we could see a move toward previous highs ($96,000) and possibly $100,000+.
❌ Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below $81,000 could lead to further downside towards the 50 SMA ($76,000) and lower demand zones.
Bitcoin remains in a strong uptrend, and the current EMA support test is crucial for trend continuation. Keeping an eye on price action around this zone is key for potential long opportunities!
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$BTC Death Cross Forming Inverse H & SAs expected, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is rolling over, hopefully to form that right shoulder for the inverse h & s patter to confirm the next leg up.
This dumped is fueled by the impending death cross, which historically marks big reversals, since the cross is already priced in.
Bitcoin Dominance Nearing Major Resistance – Big Move Incoming!Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has been in a strong uptrend and is now approaching a key resistance zone between 65% - 75%. Historically, this level has acted as a major turning point, leading to significant shifts in market dynamics.
✅ BTC.D has broken above long-term trendline resistance.
✅ The 62%-65% zone is a strong supply area where dominance previously reversed.
✅ A fakeout above resistance could trigger a sharp rejection, leading to a decline in BTC dominance.
✅ The projected drop in BTC.D (expected in Q3 2025) aligns with potential altcoin strength, signaling an upcoming altseason.
🔸 BTC dominance could push toward 75% before a rejection.
🔸 This move could coincide with Bitcoin reaching $100K+ levels
🔸 If BTC.D gets rejected at resistance, a sharp drop toward 50% or lower could fuel a massive altcoin rally in Q3 2025.
🔸 This scenario aligns with past cycles, where BTC.D peaked before capital rotated into altcoins.
⚡️ BTC dominance is nearing a make-or-break level – a rejection could mark the start of altseason 2025, while a breakout could further strengthen BTC’s dominance.
💬 What do you think? Will BTC.D break higher, or is altseason around the corner? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
Cheers
GreenCrypto
ALT Market cap - Dip before 3TThe Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC (CRYPTOCAP) is currently testing a critical support zone at the 21-month Simple Moving Average (SMA). Historically, this moving average has acted as a strong dynamic support, marking significant market reversals and uptrends.
✅ Price is bouncing off the 21 SMA, similar to previous bull market cycles.
✅ The recent correction appears to be a healthy retest of support rather than a trend reversal.
✅ The formation of higher lows suggests bullish momentum building up.
✅ If price holds above this level, we could see a strong rally in altcoins, pushing the total market cap higher.
A successful bounce from the 21 SMA could trigger a bullish continuation, leading to a market expansion toward 1.6T - 2.3T levels in the coming months.
🔸 A monthly close below the 21 SMA could invalidate this setup, leading to a deeper correction.
🔸 Key support zone to watch: $900B - $950B
🔸 Breakout confirmation: Monthly close above $1.1T
If history repeats, this could be the perfect accumulation zone before the next major altcoin season! Keep an eye on the monthly close and volume confirmation for the next big move.
Follow our TradingView account for more technical analysis updates. | Like, share, and comment your thoughts.
Cheers
GreenCrypto
The "Good" Crypto Narrative Is OverIt's been a while since I've done a bit of a deep-dive on this market and why I don't believe it'll sustain a significantly higher value in the future. I no longer have the stamina to write a long-winded post. It's exhausting at this point, and I don't need to reiterate it. Instead, I'll summarize recent developments and their impact on the crypto narrative.
1) The TOTAL crypto market cap currently rests below the all-time high from 2021. This is even including stablecoins. There is $144B worth of USDT currently in circulation. In 2021, that number was $80B. Meanwhile, stock indexes and several individual stocks are significantly up from their last peaks. From a "store of value" standpoint, this doesn't look great, particularly factoring in inflation. Adjusted for inflation, Bitcoin itself is sitting below its inflation-adjusted 2021 all-time high, which is around $84K.
2) Bitcoin active addresses are back to 2017 levels and BELOW the levels from even the previous bear market! This implies that "authentic" adoption has stagnated and begun a decline. studio.glassnode.com
3) In the eyes of a growing number of investors, Trump and Elon's crypto push has only solidified the crypto market as a joke and as a global symbol of greed and corruption.
4) Gold has far outpaced Bitcoin as a store of value during this recent period of turbulence, disproving Bitcoin as a possible safe haven. Here is the Bitcoin/Gold chart for reference:
5) Still, if cryptocurrencies completely ceased to exist, there would be no net-negative effect on the world. In fact, it may be a net-positive. Unless this suddenly changes, crypto does not have any real world value. You cannot say this about most MIL:1T + markets: If most major companies and resources ceased to exist, we'd see a very significant (mostly negative) impact on our daily lives, almost immediately.
In summary, I don't think people will be coming in droves to invest in this market. I think that ship has sailed. The opportunity for it to prove itself has waned, and it has been overtaken by largely bad actors. If anything, I think people are more likely to be forced to buy it than enter the market willingly.
From a technical standpoint, a breakdown from the big uptrend channel in the chart above would likely confirm that the top is in.
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Beware, a crypto narrative still exists, but it's only the one fed to us by those in power. It will be important not to fall for it. I worry that people will be forced to own cryptocurrencies, at the expense of their freedom. And even in a situation where crypto prices continue to increase, it is unlikely to be seen positively.
Once we graduate from these strange and confusing times, rife with dissociation, monopolies, grift, and power consolidation, it seems more likely that humanity will look at crypto as part of an uncomfortable past. If we never move on to more optimistic times, and things continue to become more dystopian, well, then that would be a time where crypto adopters can say, "hey, we were right!" But...at what cost?
Regardless, it will always be possible to profit from the volatility, hence my attempts at trading a little recently, with a focus on Litecoin. So, trading opportunities will present themselves, which will keep at least some people interested in this market. I think it is unlikely to be enough liquidity to sustain significant new all-time highs.
Here is my last big post, where I detailed more reasoning - this was prior to the Bitcoin ETF's:
And here is a recent post, where I describe how my own thoughts about the market evolved, from when I first entered in 2017 to the present:
As always, this represents only my opinion, and is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice. There are many other opinions out there. It is your responsibility to develop critical thinking.
Thanks for reading as always!
-Victor Cobra
Bitcoin 1-Year Pattern- The art of trading lies in analyzing the past to anticipate the future.
On the yearly timeframe, BTC has consistently followed this cycle:
- 1 year of bearish decline.🟥.
- 1 year of consolidation and bottoming out.🟩.
- 1 year of steady growth.🟩.
- 1 year of explosive upward movement.🟩.
based simply on that :
- 2025 is poised to be a breakout year for BTC.
- 2026 should be the next bear market.
- Everything changes, nothing lasts forever, but as a trader, you must stay on course.
- Don't let market noise shake your confidence.
Happy Tr4Ding !
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #47👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let's dive into the analysis of Bitcoin and key crypto indices. As usual, in this analysis, I will review the futures session triggers for the New York market.
⌛️ 1-Hour Timeframe
In the 1-hour timeframe, as you can see, yesterday the 83,808 trigger was activated, and the price moved down to the next support at 82,302.
⚡️ The 19.70 level in the RSI is a crucial area, as the price has reacted to this level in the last two bearish legs, leading to slight corrections.
✔️ Today, it might be a bit late to open new positions, as the price is slightly oversold, suggesting that the move has already extended sufficiently.
🔽 This situation means we should enter positions with lower risk today. The short trigger for today is 82,302, and if this level breaks, the price could decline even further.
📈 For a long position, we need to wait for confirmation of a trend reversal. First, the SMA 25 must reach the price, and then a Dow Theory confirmation should establish a new bullish trend.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Now, let’s analyze Bitcoin dominance. As you can see, this index increased yesterday as the market dropped. It briefly faked out above 62.14 before reversing downward again.
🎲 At the moment, 62.14 remains a key trigger for bullish dominance, while the main support level is 61.81.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Moving on to Total2, this index is in bad shape. It has broken its key support at 1.01 and is now moving toward 0.984.
💥 I can't provide any specific trigger for this chart today because it has dropped significantly without any corrections. For now, we need to wait for a new structure to form.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Now, let’s look at USDT dominance. Yesterday, dominance finally stabilized above 5.34, which triggered a market drop.
🔍 Currently, USDT dominance has reached the next resistance at 5.48 and has shown a reaction to this level. To confirm further upside, we need a break above 5.48. If a correction starts and we see more red candles, the price could retrace back down to 5.34.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
15-Min Bitcoin Setup – Quick Scalping Opportunity?First of all, I must say that this is a short-term analysis in a 15-minute time frame . Please be careful .
Let's take risks while respecting capital management. Be sure to respect capital management.
Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is currently trading in the support zone($84,120_$81,500) , Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) near the lower line of the ascending channel .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin could complete its 5 bearish waves near the lower line of the ascending channel .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys .
I expect Bitcoin to be able to rise to at least $85,400.
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $86,397_$85,760
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $84,262_$83,336
Note: One of the reasons for Bitcoin's decline is the decline in US indices such as CME_MINI:NQ1! , SP:SPX , and TVC:DJI .
Note: If Bitcoin falls below $83,000, we can expect more dumps.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
A new ATH is waiting for Bitcoin (2D)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
This analysis is still valid.
When everyone is discouraged and caught up in emotions, the BehDark team relies on the chart to publish analyses.
We have also added a new target to the chart. Based on recent candles in the multi-timeframe, there is a possibility of reaching 120K.
We are still waiting for the green zone and looking for buy/long positions within it.
A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BITCOIN - Small Long Trade Within Wave iii Zig-Zag...In this video, I break down a straightforward long trade based on an internal corrective zig-zag pattern.
This setup demonstrates how to capitalize on short-term trades with a solid risk-reward ratio, securing profits before looking for a re-entry opportunity.
The trade aligns with the anticipation of Bitcoin approaching its recent highs, potentially forming a double top. Currently, the trade has a protective stop at $83,169 and a target of $89,176.
Rising wedge breakdown may take BTC below 84K and lowerCRYPTO:BTCUSD has broken down from a bearish wedge in hourly. I expect it to do at least 38.2% retracement around 84k, though it could likely go lower around 50% as well which is around 82,600. Closing below 80k might open doors to resumption of downside trend.
Long Entry Signal for BTC/USDTBTC/USDT - Bullish Setup (Daily Chart)
Symbol: BTC
Timeframe: Daily
Analysis:
MLR > SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), signaling a bullish trend.
MLR > BB Center: MLR exceeds the Bollinger Bands Center Line (orange), showing strong bullish momentum.
PSAR: PSAR dots (black) are below the price, reinforcing the uptrend.
Price > SMA 200: Price is above the 200-period SMA (red), indicating long-term bullish strength.
Trade Idea:
Entry: Consider a long position at the daily close.
Stop Loss: Place SL at the current PSAR level to limit downside risk.
Follow Me: Follow me for exit or profit-taking opportunities.
Outlook: All indicators align for a bullish move. Stay alert for reversal signals or trend shifts.
Risk Warning: Not financial advice, trade at your own risk
BITCOIN BEARISH WEDGE BREAKOUT|SHORT|
✅BITCOIN made a bearish
Breakout of the bearish wedge
Pattern which reinforces our
Bearish bias and we will be
Expecting a further move down
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BTC/USDT: Strategic Entry Points for a Potential Bullish ReversaAnalysis of Key Positions in the BTC/USDT Chart
The chart provided shows a 30-minute timeframe for Bitcoin (BTC) against Tether (USDT) on Binance. The chart includes two labeled positions ("Position 1" and "Position 2") that highlight key areas of interest for traders. Below is a detailed breakdown of these positions:
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1. Position 1
- Location: Near the horizontal green support line, around the $83,600 level.
- Significance:
- Support Zone: This area acts as a strong support level, where the price has previously bounced back after testing it. The horizontal green line indicates that this level has held firm multiple times, suggesting it is a critical zone for buyers.
- Potential Entry Point: Traders can consider entering long positions near this support level if they believe the price will reverse higher. This is a classic "buy the dip" strategy.
- Stop-Loss Placement: To manage risk, traders should place stop-loss orders slightly below this support level (e.g., $83,200–$83,400). If the price breaks below this level, it could signal a continuation of the downtrend.
2. Position 2
- Location: Near the descending blue trendline, around the $85,000–$86,000 range.
- Significance:
- Resistance Zone: The blue trendline acts as dynamic resistance, and the price has been bouncing off this level multiple times. A breakout above this trendline would be a strong bullish signal, indicating that buyers have overcome short-term selling pressure.
- Potential Entry Point: Traders can consider entering long positions after a confirmed breakout above the trendline. A breakout is typically confirmed when the price closes above the trendline on a candlestick.
- Stop-Loss Placement: For safety, traders should place stop-loss orders just below the trendline (e.g., $84,800–$85,000). This ensures that the trade is exited if the breakout fails and the price reverses lower.
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Comparison Between Position 1 and Position 2
- Position 1 (Near Support):
- Risk Profile: Lower risk, as it is closer to a well-defined support level.
- Reward Potential: Moderate, as the upside target would likely be the next resistance level (e.g., the trendline or Fibonacci retracement levels).
- Strategy: Suitable for traders who want to enter at a cheaper price but are willing to take on some downside risk.
- Position 2 (Near Trendline Breakout):
- Risk Profile: Higher risk, as it requires waiting for a confirmed breakout.
- Reward Potential: Higher, as a successful breakout could lead to a stronger upward move.
- Strategy: Suitable for traders who prefer confirmation before entering long positions.
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Actionable Insights
1. For Short-Term Traders:
- Entry Strategy: Look for pullbacks to the $83,600 support level to enter long positions. Use tight stop-loss orders below the support to manage risk.
- Exit Strategy: Set profit targets based on Fibonacci retracement levels or previous highs (e.g., $85,000–$86,000).
2. For Long-Term Traders:
- Entry Strategy: Wait for a confirmed breakout above the blue trendline ($85,000–$86,000) before entering long positions. This ensures that the bullish trend is sustainable.
- Exit Strategy: Use trailing stops or take profits at key resistance levels (e.g., $87,000–$88,000).
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Risk Management
- Always use stop-loss orders to protect against unexpected price movements.
- Consider using position sizing to limit exposure to market volatility.
- Monitor volume and momentum indicators to confirm the strength of any breakout or reversal.
---
Conclusion
The two positions highlighted in the chart provide distinct trading opportunities:
1. Position 1 (Near Support): A potential entry point for aggressive traders looking to buy the dip near $83,600.
2. Position 2 (Near Trendline Breakout): A safer entry point for traders who prefer confirmation before entering long positions near $85,000–$86,000.
By combining these positions with proper risk management and technical analysis, traders can increase their chances of success in the BTC/USDT market.
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Final Answer: The two positions indicate key trading opportunities:
- Position 1: Near the $83,600 support level, suitable for traders willing to buy the dip.
- Position 2: Near the $85,000–$86,000 trendline breakout, ideal for traders seeking confirmation before entering long positions.
SEI Poised for a Breakout After Bold 23andMe Acquisition Bid !Sei (SEI), the innovative layer-1 blockchain designed for high-speed trading and decentralized finance (DeFi), is flashing strong bullish signals both fundamentally and technically. The recent news that the Sei Foundation is exploring the acquisition of 23andMe, the leading personal genomics company, has sparked excitement in the market. If successful, this strategic move could position Sei at the forefront of the multi-billion-dollar genomic data industry — combining blockchain’s security and transparency with the rapidly growing demand for data privacy.
Why This Is Huge
23andMe recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, opening the door for a potential buyout. The Sei Foundation’s plan to migrate genetic data onto the blockchain would give individuals direct control over their data, allowing them to decide how it’s used and even monetize it. This taps into a massive and underserved market where data security and privacy are becoming critical issues.
Bullish Chart Setup
From a technical perspective, Sei’s chart is showing signs of a major breakout:
✅ Double Bottom: SEI has recently formed a clear double bottom pattern, signaling a strong reversal from recent lows. This is a classic bullish pattern that suggests the selling pressure has been exhausted and buyers are stepping in.
✅ Falling Wedge: SEI is also breaking out of a falling wedge, a high-probability bullish formation. Falling wedges typically lead to strong upside moves as downward momentum fades and buying pressure builds up.
✅ Volume Increasing: Recent spikes in volume confirm that smart money could be accumulating in anticipation of a breakout.
Perfect Storm for a Rally
With a bullish technical setup aligning with a game-changing fundamental catalyst, Sei could be on the verge of a major breakout. A successful acquisition of 23andMe would not only give Sei real-world utility in the health data sector but also drive increased adoption and network activity. If SEI clears key resistance levels, this combination of technical strength and strategic growth could send the token to new highs.
Sei isn’t just another DeFi project — it's positioning itself to be a leader at the intersection of blockchain, health data, and privacy.
This could be the beginning of a powerful new trend for SEI. 🚀
BTCUSD: Such consolidations end up very well for Bitcoin.Bitcoin just turned bearish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.578, MACD = -918.200, ADX = 29.021) and with 1W still neutral, we are again on strong long term buy levels. Today's chart is yet another illustration of the market dynamics and the similarities with the previous Cycle. The market is well on its way towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target, which now translates to $175,000. Unless the 1W MA50 support breaks, BTC is a buy opportunity on every pullback.
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BTC - Is BTC going lower?Since the end of January 2025, BTC has been in a downtrend. However, over the last couple of weeks, BTC has been following an upward trend (rising wedge). This rising wedge has now been broken, as it tested the downward sloping trendline that has been in place since the end of January.
On the daily timeframe, the Stochastic RSI is crossing down from the overbought zone, indicating that the momentum is shifting to the downside. This suggests that bearish pressure could persist in the coming days or even weeks.
While it is possible that BTC could recover from this level and target higher prices. however, my base case is that BTC will continue to form a bearish structure over the next few days or weeks, potentially making a higher low or even a lower low. Time will reveal how the price action unfolds. Until then, the bias remains bearish unless proven otherwise.
It is important to be aware of your risk management when opening positions at this moment, as market conditions can be volatile and unpredictable.
Thanks for your support.
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TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #46👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let's dive into the analysis of Bitcoin and key crypto indices. As usual, in this analysis, I will review the futures session triggers for the New York market.
⌛️ 1-Hour Timeframe
In the 1-hour timeframe, as you can see, yesterday the 86,401 trigger was activated, and the price moved downward. Since the price was making lower highs, I anticipated this move yesterday, and now the price is near 83,808, approaching this support level.
✔️ At this point, I believe the price has declined sufficiently, and it may start forming a base around 83,808. However, for a short position, this same 83,808 level is key, and we can enter a position if it breaks below this area.
🔼 For a long position, we need to wait until at least the SMA 25 reaches the price and the price stabilizes above this zone. Once the trend turns bullish, we can consider opening a long position.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Moving on to Bitcoin dominance, as the market declined and Bitcoin broke support, dominance increased. This helped Bitcoin hold up better than other coins, which experienced heavier losses.
📊 Currently, dominance has reached 62.14 and faced a strong rejection from this level. If a corrective phase begins, the key support area for price is 61.81, and the price could retrace to this level.
✨ For a bullish move in dominance, a break above 62.14 is required, with the next resistance at 62.30.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Now let’s analyze Total2. As I mentioned, altcoins have experienced a much sharper decline than Bitcoin, and after breaking 1.06, Total2 started a strong downtrend, even breaking through 1.04.
🎲 Currently, the price is fluctuating between 1.01 and 1.04, and it seems that the trend is showing signs of weakness, indicating that this bearish leg may be ending. If a correction begins, the price could move up to 1.04. However, for the next short position, the trigger level to watch is 1.01.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Now let’s analyze USDT dominance. This index broke through the key 5.19 level and has risen to 5.34.
🌩 If a candle closes above this level, the next major resistance is at 5.45. In case of a pullback, the key support to watch is 5.25.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.