BTC weekly update#Bitcoin HTF strong stance continues!
Don't fall prey to the CRYPTOCAP:BTC short-time noise!
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
Market Shifts To Risk-Off: Correction For Bitcoin To 85-90k.We are seeing significant flows since the Fed delivered a hawkish cut yesterday, with stocks turning sharply to the downside while the US dollar continues its recovery above 108. Another reason for this end-of-year shift could also be profit-taking, given the substantial gains in risk assets throughout the year, so traders see this as reason to exit, since FED expect less cuts next year.
This shift into the US dollar and out of the stock market is also impacting cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has turned perfectly downward from 108, which we tracked as an important resistance level in wave five of an extended wave three. Now that price turned down and broken the channel support line, it looks like an A-B-C correction is underway, likely targeting even lower levels.
The key support zone for the current corrective fourth wave should be around the 84000–90000 area. This zone could provide the foundation for a potential new bullish resumption, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Broke through that zone will put bulls in some real trouble.
Grega
What I Expect Through The New Year Absent A Government Shutdown.Traders, minus a government shutdown, I do expect another altcoin pump. However, the possibility of a shutdown is throwing a big wrench into my thesis. We'll talk about how price action would look in both scenarios as well as discuss the new crypto cycle rotation. You should get to know this new rotation to remain most successful in your trading.
As always, we'll start with the DXY, VIX, SPY, and NVDA and discuss future direction and what it means for our crypto space.
BTC - 4H Buy Scalp position.This could be a promising opportunity to buy Bitcoin. The ascending channel remains intact, and we might see a rise to at least the $102K pivot zone or beyond. A strong setup for a buy position!
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
$TOTAL Market Cap FUD Sell-Off 14% sell-off on Crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap in the past 24 hrs
If we don't reclaim support here, could have another ~8% down to go. If that happens, I expect it to happen swiftly with a V-shaped recovery
Get your bids in!
NO NEED TO PANIC
Santa Rally still on the table 🎅
A bearish retest of bitcoin to rule them all#bitcoin #btc price has broken the trend line support of ascending channel and parabola support. This is not good but in my previous ideas i' ve warned you of this great risk. If this bearish retest succeeds with declination from the trend support, more dumps will be ahead. Not financial advice.
BITCOIN Why Do you think I am long PUTS ???The chart from an ELLIOT WAVE Perspective I have now completed 5 of 5 or will need one last pop to 109100 But from a position trade the option are to be placed NOW .I am long In the money PUTS the decline that is about occur should be painful for LONGS in 2025 ,happy holidays WAVETIMER Look at the RSI
The Bitcoin Peak: When Will the Cycle End?Been a while since I published a TA. I’ve been digging deep trying to decipher when the cycle top will come in for Bitcoin. Some say it’s an impossible feat. Well, let’s give it a go.
There are two major dates and one minor date for a possible cycle top:
May 2025
**Volume Flow**: 1157 Days
**From June Bottom**: 1064 days
**ETH clear bottom**: June 2022
**Bar Pattern Fractal**: From 2015 bottom
**221k Price Target**: Target crosses with the model in May.
September 2025
**From November Bottom**: 1064 days
**Major Macro Time Fibonacci**
**Chainlink Fractal**
**Chainlink Time Fib**
March 2025
**Small Time Fibonacci**
**Bull Flag End**
**Average % move and time since 2019**
As you can see, there is a lot of evidence to unpack here, so it’s going to be a long one. Let’s start with the first date: May 2025.
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May 2025
Volume Flow on Heikin Candles on the Monthly shows that from the Bearish cross to the cycle top is 1126 days, which ends up being May.
Every cycle, Bitcoin has always put in a double bottom to mark its cycle low. As you can see, in 2022 we had two major crashes, and even though it’s not 100% clear here, we got a double bottom.
The amazing thing about the first bottom in June 2022 is that it mirrored the first bottom of the cycle low of 2015. That fractal was a mirror, showing the importance of this first low in Bitcoin in June 2022.
If we overlay the 2015 fractal, we get the top coming in May.
For anyone who doesn’t know, the last two cycles, Bitcoin has taken 1064 days from Cycle Low to Cycle Top. 1064 days from the June 2022 low is May.
ETH has a much clearer bottom than Bitcoin this cycle. It also took 1064 days, which puts it in May.
So you can see, there is a lot of evidence pointing towards a May 2025 Cycle Top for Bitcoin.
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September/October 2025
1064 days from the second bottom in November 2022 would be October 2025.
For years, I have been using this Major Macro Time Fibonacci sequence that shows me important moments in Bitcoin’s cycles. The last pointed to a move down to 48k in August 2023, which is hard to see on the 2Week chart.
As you can see, it comes close to pinpointing moves, so the next date is the end of September 2025, which lines up with the 1064 days from November 2022.
I have been following this Chainlink fractal for more than a year. We traded LINK using this fractal back in October 2023. You can check my TAs from that period. The fractal is still valid and tops in September 2025.
Chainlink Fibonacci Time Sequence has been hitting home runs time and time again, from pinpointing the top all the way down to the bottom. The next date is late August 2025, very close to September 2025.
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March 2025
This date has far less weight for a cycle top but could be part of a major local top and correction.
A small Time Fibonacci sequence taken from this level shows that March 31st is the next date, and the one after that is late August 2025, the same as the Chainlink fractal.
240% over 162 days is the average that Bitcoin moves up since 2019. If we just overlay the average, we get 127k by mid-February 2025.
A mirror move from October 2023 to March 2024 puts us in March 2025.
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Elliott Wave Section
I’m not an expert in this field but will throw in some takes.
Could we possibly be in Wave 4 out of 5?
Or could we be finishing Wave 3 right now and in for the first large correction of this bull market?
The fact is, the last time we hit this band on this model was January 2021. After that, there was a 31% correction lasting 31 days.
Sometimes 5 waves are very clear. Take GOLD, for example: there is a clear 5-wave pattern at max Fibonacci extension. This is a massive macro sell signal, in my opinion. Crazy how GOLD hit this level on Wave 5 as Bitcoin breaks 100k.
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### **Price Targets
If we take the first cycle and overlay to 2015 cycle, it gave us the cycle top in 2021.
If we do the same for this cycle and overlay the 2015 cycle, we get a price target of 221k, which puts it at the top of my model in May 2025. Just discovered this—that’s one more point for May 2025.
As you can see, in the last two cycles it worked. Will it work this time? Who knows.
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Pi Cycle Indicator
If we just run a rough projection on when the next cross will be, it crosses in April 2025, very close to May. Keep in mind this is a very rough idea of when it could cross.
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Conclusion
We have 5 points in favor of May 2025, 4 points in favor of September 2025, and 2 points for March 2025. As always, the path is never clear for Bitcoin. Until we get much further down the road, I won’t conclusively know which date it will be.
This model I have been using has been so accurate thus far. We are so high up the last bands that we are most likely going to get some sort of long consolidation period with a correction soon, which would give the altcoin market a run.
Bitcoin Dips to $96K Amid MARA and Hut 8’s Major Accumulation SpBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the flagship cryptocurrency, faced a notable price dip to $96,300, reflecting a 6% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite this, significant institutional purchases by MARA Holdings and Hut 8 highlight the growing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential.
Institutional Accumulation on the Rise
MARA recently purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529 per Bitcoin, totaling $1.53 billion. This acquisition, financed through zero-coupon convertible notes, has increased their holdings to 44,394 BTC, worth $4.45 billion at current prices.
MARA’s year-to-date BTC yield stands at an impressive 60.9%, underscoring their strategic accumulation approach.
Another institutional player, Hut 8, announced the purchase of 990 BTC for $100 million. These acquisitions demonstrate that major players view current prices as an attractive entry point, reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a store of value.
Market Sentiment and Activity
Despite the dip, CryptoQuant reports no signs of widespread panic selling. This indicates resilience among market participants, with many holding firm in anticipation of a rebound. Additionally, Bitcoin remains 4.59% up in December and 60% up over the past four months, reflecting its strong performance in the broader macroeconomic environment.
Technical Analysis
1. Relative Strength Index (RSI):
Bitcoin’s RSI currently sits at 35, signaling oversold conditions. Historically, such levels have often preceded a price rebound.
2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Immediate support is observed at the 65% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical zone that could stabilize the price. However, persistent selling pressure might push Bitcoin lower, with potential targets at:
- $90,000 (1-month low)
- $80,000 (key psychological level)
3. Volume and Liquidations:
Over $100 million in liquidations occurred in the last 24 hours, suggesting significant market volatility.
Short-Term Outlook
While the dip has raised concerns, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong, bolstered by robust institutional demand. The oversold technical conditions and significant support levels suggest a potential recovery in the coming days. However, traders should remain cautious, as further dips could occur if broader market conditions deteriorate.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s dip to $96K reflects short-term volatility, but the sustained interest from institutional players like MARA and Hut 8 underscores its long-term potential. As market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin could see renewed bullish momentum, making this an opportune moment for investors to assess their strategies.
Bitcoin BEARISH - BTC Strong Resistance On Weekly TFBitcoin has reached strong resistance on the weekly TF. The resistance line goes the whole way back to 2017. So it's very reliable. A strong move downwards is very likely!
Based on previous times this line was tested, Bitcoin could fall 50% or more. However, the 74000-75000 level looks like a good support level. This would be about a 30% drop which is still very significant.
I expect profit taking very soon and short sellers to come in. There could possibly even be global headline news to cause this drop.
Be very careful in buying near the tops. Trade with your brain and not emotions. This is only an idea and anything can happen, but it's a weekly chart and seems very reliable.
BTCUSD: The phenomenal Fib power of +.618.Bitcoin quickly turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.454, MACD = 3285.300, ADX = 32.138) as in a matter of 24 hours it dropped from its 108,000 ATH back to below 100,000. As the price continues to grow, we should start getting used to those 10k violent price swings. Today though, we want to discuss an incredible finding, which we call ' the Fib power of 0.618'. It is this amazing pattern you see where Bitcoin, since its Nov 2022 bottom and subsequent Jan 2023 High, it has systematically targeted every +0.618 Fibonacci extension before pulling back.
1st TP was Fib 1.618, 2nd TP = Fib 2.168, 3rd TP = Fib 3.618. Natually this sequence targets next: 4th TP = Fib 4.618 (112,500), 5th TP = Fib 5.618 (173,500) and finally 6th TP = Fib 6.618 (265,000). Of course this assumes that the trend will follow the same fluid pattern, where the first of the Fib pairs has only a short consolidation (green Rectangle) leading to a fast rise to the second Fib, which has a long consolidation (blue Rectangle). This implies that we're currently inside a short consolidation an in April we should hit 112,500 (5th TP on Fib 5.618).
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BITCOIN SELL TO $86,000 (UPDATE)Bitcoin sell TP1 smashed!✅
Less than 24hrs in & our first target has been met on BTC. More downside expected towards our TP2 at $86,000. Hope you all got in & profited from the live call yesterday!
BTC/USD - daily chart divergence showed the wayThe divergence was strong with this one.
Both the RSI and MACD showed huge Divergence from the Price.
Divergence is a very good way to try and prevent your buy trade from being someone else’s exit liquidity at the top.
It'll be interesting to see if those Liquidity Voids below get filled up.
Divergence:
Liquidity Voids:
RENDER SWING LONG OPPORTUNITY - CRYPTO MARKETPrice is reaching to Price is approaching the monthly demand zone, aligning with a massive bearish trendline originating from Spring 2024. Additionally, there’s confluence with a key Fibonacci level. I anticipate a bounce from this area, potentially leading to new highs or even all-time highs.
As always, wait for lower time frame confirmations before initiating the idea.
BTC - 1H a Pullback scalp with RSI RSI divergence at the top of the ascending channel hints BINANCE:BTCUSDT may hunt liquidity at lower levels before tomorrow’s FOMC news.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BTC overbought ?if someone tell you BTC is overbought. show him that monthly chart.. and this target is very conservative.
Happy Tr4Ding !
Special made for Babitos Koksalitos !
NEIRO, might surprise everyone.NEIROUSDT / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
The meme coins market is showing strong bullish momentum in the current Crypto cycle, breaking through key resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for confirmation into the breakout zone for a more strategic entry.
If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target:
1- Lower quarter of the range
2- Mid of the range
3- New all-time high
Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence!
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
Sentiment Cycle Indicator Performance (PAID)Performance Analysis of the Sentiment Cycle Indicator
1. Trend Identification:
• The indicator has effectively highlighted bullish and bearish sentiment zones, as shown by the green (bullish) and red (bearish) background shading. This visual clarity makes it easy for traders to identify the prevailing market sentiment at a glance.
2. Buy and Sell Signals:
• The Buy signals are well-timed, capturing upward price movements, especially during key reversal zones.
• The Sell signals occur consistently in areas where bearish momentum starts to dominate, allowing traders to exit or short positions effectively.
3. Key Trades Observed:
• Buy Example: Around the recent low near $100,000, the indicator generated a buy signal right before a significant upward move, aligning well with the trend shift.
• Sell Example: Near $105,000, the indicator provided a sell signal ahead of a downward move, protecting traders from holding during the drop.
4. Market Choppiness Handling:
• Even during sideways or choppy markets, the indicator avoids excessive false signals due to its clear sentiment zone shading, helping traders stay on the right side of the market.
Why This Indicator Stands Out
1. Simplifies Complex Market Trends:
• By combining sentiment analysis with buy/sell signals, the indicator provides traders with a comprehensive toolkit for decision-making.
2. Dynamic Market Adaptation:
• The indicator adapts to real-time price movements, ensuring timely and accurate signals without lagging.
3. Perfect for Scalping and Swing Trading:
• Traders can use the sentiment zones for scalping in smaller timeframes and for swing trading over longer horizons.
Reason to worry on Alts?With Bitcoins huge institutional backing seeing it far surpass $100k and reaching a new high of $108k, it's easy to say that the biggest cryptos future looks bright, but what of altcoins? Looking at the TOTAL3 chart there are a few key points I'd like to highlight, some positive and some negative:
4H 200 EMA - This moving average is so important for the short/mid term bias. In a bear market we very rarely see trading above the 4H 200 EMA and vice versa in a bullmarket. Currently TOTAL3 is retesting the MA as support, with first tap wicking below and then a move back above, this is positive so far showing that buyers are willing to step in at this level. Bullish.
Bearish structure forming? - At its core, trading is simple. You buy low and sell high, now we all know there is more to it than that but the basics are still the most important. The trend is your friend, so lets analyse the trend.
Clear Higher high and Higher lows ever since the US election result, bullish structure/trend. However, we recently got our first Lower high since then and now the question is will we get a Lower low to flip the structure bearish? So far that is not the case ass the 4H 200 EMA swooped in to save the day but if price were to dip below the Daily support we'd have a trend flip on the 4H.
Since that is an IF, lets see what is happening now, a tightening of the highs and lows would equal an accumulation phase and in this instance an accumulation phase after a strong rally is a setup for the next leg which is bullish. Just got to keep an eye on that structure for now.
The formation of a downtrend - This ties into the structure point, like how we saw 8 months of "chop" on BTC which in reality was a downtrend after a strong rally, this chart pattern is looking similar to 4H TOTAL3 we see now. If we see a new LL at the downtrend support level I will switch to trading TOTAL3 as a range until proven otherwise.
BTC / USDT: Bouncing back strong from key support BTC/USDT: Bouncing Back Strong from Key Support
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is showing resilience 💪 as it rebounds from a critical support level, signaling potential bullish momentum ahead 📈. This key level has previously acted as a launchpad for strong upward moves, and the current price action hints at a similar scenario unfolding 🚀.
Key insights:
1. Strong support zone: BTC has bounced off a well-established support area, reinforcing its importance as a demand zone.
2. Momentum shift: Indicators like RSI and MACD are turning upward ⚡, hinting at renewed buyer interest.
3. Volume increase: Early signs of increasing volume suggest that bulls are stepping back into the market 🔥.
Steps to confirm the uptrend:
Watch for a clear 4H or daily candle close above immediate resistance levels 📍.
Monitor trading volume; a surge in volume during upward moves strengthens the bullish case 📊.
Look for higher highs and higher lows on the charts to confirm a trend reversal 📈.
Risk management strategies:
Set a stop-loss below the support level to limit potential losses 🔒.
Scale into positions gradually as bullish confirmation develops 🎯.
Avoid overleveraging; position size should align with your overall trading plan ✅.
Important note:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) 🔍 and trade responsibly.
XRP STILL BULLISH TARGET 4.00XRP is Making the bullish pennant pattern. Buyers are taking Internet in this project after TRUM Winning USA Elections. XRP IS A STRONG Project. And having good potential for big move
BITCOIN → Bearish Pressure !!!Bitcoin has formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern on the hourly time frame. This pattern could potentially lead to a price drop to around $99,000 after the pattern breaks.
But as long as this pattern does not break, we cannot say that the price is bearish. Therefore, we should wait for this pattern to break to confirm a bearish trend.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
