Fractals Measurementseveryone is talking about this fractal move on bitcoin. i want to give you measurements of how far we can go or it's already done.
i putted a fib retracement tool to just measure the ratio between swing high to lowest point of the fractal triangle. i realised that bitcoin move down from 5800$ to 3150$ is 19% of it's move from ATH to the bottom of the 2018 triangle as you can see on the chart.
Now in smaller triangle of 2019 i did the same thing. guess what? we reversed almost from 19% of the move. same thing as 2018.
every fractal will end some day. so to be bearish i need to see bitcoin below 7700$.
Bitcoinbottom
BTCUSD: 2019 Repeating 2018 Bump and Run Bottom?BTCUSD: 2019 Repeating 2018 Bump and Run Bottom?
- Bump and Run is the #1 most bullish chart pattern Per Bulkowski (thepatternsite.com)
- To identify a Bump and Run, look for a frying pan base with a downward sloping line with a rapid drop then leveling out with a rotated turn.
- "The bump height, as measured from the trend line to the lowest low, should be at least twice the lead-in height. Strict adherence to this rule is not required, but it serves as a good general guideline."
- Lead In Height = 13500-9800 = 3700
- Bump Height = 12641-9175 = 3466
- This is our current situation, so it could lead to a throwback (maximum throwback level designated on the chart). This could form a second bump before breaking out to the measured target of top level of the lead in at ~13.8k and likely new all time highs after that.
BTCUSD Ascending Broadening Wedge/Falling Wedge 8.1k-8.6k BottomBTCUSD Ascending Broadening Wedge/Falling Wedge 8.1k-8.6k Bottom
- Two Alternate Ascending Broadening Wedge Formations Drawn with decline leading into bullish Falling Wedge formation.
- Breakouts downward of ABW at ~10400 or ~9800.
- Per Bulkowski, average decline of Ascending Broadening Wedge is 17%
- Targets ~8640 and ~8140, respectively.
Bitcoin bottom targets of $8500~$7500Thanks to Eric Crown at Krown's crypto cave for pointing out this RMI+EMA control zone on monthly during last 2015. This is still appearing to be a healthy monthly and weekly consolidation.
You can see in 2015 we actually rose more (411%) than 2019 (349%) from the trough to peak of bear market recovery before the monthly RSI his the bullish control green zone and then retraced back towards the EMA.
In 2015 this pullback contracted 42% in the next two months while now if we contract 42% that would put us at $8k, right in between the $8500 major support (39% correction) and $7500 (46.7%) correction targets during this very HEALTHY consolidation of a parabolic move up.
I will be looking for long entries at $8500 as there is no reason it must go to retest the monthly low candle of $7443. IT SEEMS HARD TO FIND A REASON TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE EVEN A WICK TO OR BELOW $7443.
This could all play out in a couple weeks as well and off to the races... this time could be very different in terms of time and volatility.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE - DO YUOUR OWN RESEARCH AND TRADE ACCORDING TO YOUR INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES AND STYLE.
BTCUSD pullback.BOTTOM IS IN
BTC/USD need a pullback to cool off after a nice rally from 4000$ to 7500$. The reason why BTC was pumped hard is simple,traders all time shorted BTC and the whales liquidated this positions. BTC/USD now just hitted the first long term 0.236 fib resistance line which is at 7104$ and also the candle closed below this resistance line(bearish sign)+we have a huugeee strong ichimoku resistance in this weekly chart
RSI is still overbought because is above 70 point
at MACD just crossed the neutral zone which is a really nice buy signal BUT don't forget another indicators :-) .Stochastic also is overbought.
I'm expecting a pullback till 50MA weekly. We have too much support line for a breakdown below 3000$
Sitting on my hands waiting patiently for a Bitcoin pullback.Just a couple bits of analysis on the BITFINEX:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD GEMINI:BTCUSD breakout and follow through over the last few months, some key resistance levels to look out for, and my strategy for accumulating some more BTC at on the back half of this 18 month long bear market.
Note my accumulation zone (green boxes) currently paints $3689 to $4141. This is based on a 61.8% to 78.6% retracement of the counter trend rally we're seeing play out now. Levels are due to change if/when we move higher. Simply redraw your fibs from the same low to the new highs and you'll be looking at my same accumulation zone, referred to as KRZs on the chart.
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BTC Bull Run is so close! :)As we can clearly see, weekly RSI is already bottomed out BTC like in past before each and every bull run...
This RSI is not the regular one some settings are changed so the trend can be identified clearly..
$3122 can be the bottom of this 2018-19 bear market, which hitted it on Dec 10, 2018.
Market can of course take correction but bottomed is marked already...
BE READY FOR THE BULL RUN! ;)
Prediction for for Bitcoins Actual Bottom using Bitcoin cyclesBitcoin cycle 1,
23 weeks bear/48 weeks bull=0.47
Bitcoin cycle 2
61 weeks bear/106 weeks bull=0.575
Bitcoin Cycle 3
-22.34% increase in the ratio, so we would do 0.575x1.22=0.7015 ratio
so 0.7015x152=106.6 as the the bottom, or weeks 107 basically for the bottom, which would be
between Dec 2019-Jan 2020
To be on the safer side it would be best to Dollar cost average 1-2 months before these intervals, so that would be like Oct 2019 to March 2020 you would start buying in intervals bitcoin/other alt coins and hold for a few years to come.
BTC - bullish monthly fractal patterns Some interesting symmetries exist in BTC bull/bear cycles that I don't believe have appeared as cleanly before in other assets. My belief which will take several years to play out is these cycles are fundamental to Bitcoin alone due to the nature of it's 4 year supply shock related to the halving. It appears to forecast that 6-12 months prior to the 4 year block reward halving market supply dries up as accumulation begins. The early accumulators buy up the excess supply from a deep bear market which evens the supply curve of new coins. This accumulation forms the flattening period to setup the next bull run. Halving occurs creating supply shock during a bull market while demand is steadily rising. Rapidly rising demand drives FOMO buyers to market creating a parabolic price move. This final parabolic push creates a 700% price move in it's final stage. The duration of the parabolic move takes longer each cycle as total market mass is larger each cycle. The actualization of astronomical raises in price leads to tipping point of profit taking as the older holders sell holding which pushes coins back into supply. This cascades into a tipping point creating the massive descending triangles as supply increases in large moves down are made and the market reconsolidates at a price point to absorb the new supply. Given bear markets are not attritive to new investors the market continues to consolidate and move down as short/medium term players abandon positions until there is no one left to sell.
IF bitcoin markets rhyme based on the underlying supply halving cycles this would explain why Bitcoin moves uniquely compared to other assets that have come before it and in such rhythmic pattern. It will take years to validate this idea but if our premise holds. The cycles between bull markets is approximately 639 days which may shorten in the future as investors seek to get ahead of each other to accumulate.
Despite the deep correction the bear market has made and while the market may still head lower as traders/speculators abandon positions I'm still as bullish as I ever was. I don't know where the market will bottom, the triangle indicates July/August of this year, but for those with a longer term outlook I would be much rather be a buyer in Feb-Aug of 2019 than in Feb-Aug of 2020.
BITCOIN NEXT TARGETS $4724 and $5200 (max) then new lowsSame price action than 2014, Indicators look pretty much the same, RSI shows bull div on daily, Macd histogram shows that the bear momentum is over. Next targets $4724 and $5200 which is the 21 weekly moving average and this will be my max target for this move, after that it will make new lows, bottom around $1750 and $1330
BITCOIN(BTC) INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS MEMEHello everybody. Retail is labeling Bitcoin(BTC) as an inverse head and shoulders right now. Please do not be fooled by these gurus that are not knowledgeable in this craft. An inverse head and shoulders is simply a break and retest of your break on your HTF not some magical pattern that makes you money. That being said it is possible this "pattern" fulfills due to the logic behind blackjack theory. Bitcoin has been in a very tight range on the 4 hour and daily since Christmas day and sitting on the equilibrium of our intermediate range. The price action is quite corrective after an impulse (bullish case) and continuation is more than possible. What you should be looking for here is where does the nearest liquidity lay? If we can break this range (green prediction) and see a retest to the upside off the range I would be entering long with (bullish case) price reaching the equilibrium of the macro range and most likely extending for our OTE (labeled major consolidation block). Bearish case(red prediction) would be the fact that we have equal lows on the weekly off the meme 200 ma and thus price could run for this liquidity pool to clear stops into the lower eq range.
Short on BTC for nearly the entirety of 2018, we strive to help you all educate yourselves on trading and save you money. Check out below for access to our discord which is completely free as well as our youtube channel.
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Trader_Tristan
$BTC #Bitcoin to 3K, below this level no near term reversal.The sooner the market fully capitulates the sooner the bear market comes to an end, we may see THE low of this bear market made in the next few days rather than what I originally thought (beginning of 2019).
The next level of horizontal support is $3000 more precisely $2970, but at each leg lower I am surprised at how the volume tapers off. If it goes as low as $3000 and there is not a clear V bottom all bets are off.
From the production side of things it seems that bitcoin miners who have been spending $6000 to mine one coin would also come in at 50% off to rather than jump on new ASICs right away. Even the latest ASICs cannot mine profitably at these levels (a stock buyback of sorts.) This is assuming that the miners still believe in their business model.
Bitcoin bottom at 4.5-4.8kI suspect the realistic bottom for this bitcoin "crash"/ correction is at 4500/4800 dollars. To back up my statement I am showing you that bitcoin has broken trough the 6000 dollar support and is "free falling" towards the next, RSI looks bearish in the short term implying that we are heading towards 4500/4800 dollar price region.
RSI, As you can see I am displaying the RSI in the 1 week chart, The RSI is heading towards the same region as in the 2014 crash ( shown in the yellowish circles ).
Like you are shown the RSI still has some way to go until the 2014 RSI levels.
This for me suggets that BTC will drop a bit more to 4.5k-4.8k region.
Now this is all speculation but I wanted to share my opinion and views on this matter.
Thank you and hope this helps you in future trades!
Bitcoin: Bottoming processes, avoid to "buy the dip" gambleWe are quickly going to study the previous Bitcoin bottom symptoms;
2011
2014-2015
What is important to possibly form a bottom:
=> Smmas pierced and support established on them
=> Major rounded bottom with a double bottom present in a period of several months
There is no bottom special candle as some people are saying on social networks, there is nothing that shows the bottom is here in a week, unless the chart prints a V reversal
A bottoming formation is generally a long process unless it is a V reversal (F.e. Nasdaq Composite in 2000)
Only time, and patience can tell.
Gl to you
Bitcoin History Repeat Again (REAL BITCOIN BOTTON)Again we are come back with our magic. The question is buzzing in bitcoin world that what is the bottom price of bitcoin after this ATH 19600?
So here we just did a great analysis for bitcoin long term holder. so check this chart guys.
Bitcoin first biggest rally started in 2013 and goes ATH at $1070 in JAN 2015.
Further btc value decrease from Jan to mid july at 235.
From mid July (first green circle price approx 235) btc biggest rally started from $235 to $19100+.
Yes, there are many short correction between mid 2015 to dec 2018.
Now We can see in next downtrend in Jan 2018 after bitcoin ATH $19100. Like same as 2013 btc started its next correction for its again highest rally. So btc can bounce from 4000-4700 dollar area(second circle) and 2500-3500 dollar area(thirst green circle.
After that long term target 22000-25000-34000-40000. All possible
if have any suggest please comment and don't forget to follow and share this chat in twitter.
I did very hard work for u. Thanks for watching.
Bottom History AnalysisI've seen a lot of people comparing the current price action to the 2014 bear market so I thought I'd take some time to do the same. There are definitely many similar elements as far as reactions to previous support and resistance zones. If expect a similar trend to play out I think that puts our bottom somewhere around 3K. I've also heard many analysts that have been watching crypto since the early days have been calling a similar bottom. Its certainly possible that the announcement of an ETF could prevent us from going that low, but I could also foresee a scenario where the SEC delays their ETF decision whilst also releasing some unfavorable ICO news that could easily send us to 3K.
Bitcoin: Back from HybernationI have posted many charts on Bitcoins bottom once we saw BTC enter the 6k-8k range. The reason: these may be the lowest prices we ever see Bitcoin at again and you don't want to miss out on the opportunity.
Here's my final chart on BTC's bottom and I hope it helps those of you questioning what to do.
BTC's set up is very bullish. We just witnessed a impulse wave + breakout of the downtrend.
Enjoy the gains this year and remember, just keep buying cheap coins and HODLing... and don't stop HODLing :)
Best of luck
bitcoin to 11k then to 3k.just out of curiosity today i played around with the log charts on bitcoin.
clearly we are testing the downwards log trend and it has been a pretty bloody battle.
this will be the 4th time we have made contact with the trendline.
in 2014, bitcoin also made 4 contacts with the trendline, and on the 5th contact, it broke out.
i think something very similar could happen to bitcoin in the near future.
another interesting this is the daily RSI.
even the daily RSI's are almost mirror images of each other. double top RSI at 60.
There's no wave theory in this at the moment, because that's for another post. but in the meantime I'll be considering this as my primary movement.
1) short to 7.5/7.6k, placing buys at 0.618 fib level, which is where the 2014 fractal bounced from.
2) long to at least 11k from 7.5k, obviously keeping tight trailing stop losses.
3) short from 11k down to 3k by end of this year.
Obviously fractals dont ALWAYS play out exactly, but I do see this as a potential route of it playing out, this is because of a few reasons.
1) weekly RSI had bottomed out locally around 45ish.
2) we had a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart.
3) this is the second time we've retested the 60RSI on the daily chart.
4) market sentiment is fairly bullish.
5) alt coins are starting to pop off, this would also coincide with them having their particular season biyearly.
6) I don't spot any sort of accumulation patterns on bitcoin on the daily chart (wyckoff accumulation that is to signify end of bear market), right now this is all chop.
anyways, let me know what you guys think! definitely keen for some discussion in the comments.
ive linked the bitcoin 2014 on the log chart beneath for your reference with the daily RSI there.
it's very interesting.