Bitcoin 2017 vs 2020 Bull Run (Very Different)Bitcoin had one of its most phenomenal years in 2017 when the coin reached $19,500 for the first time. It took BTC three years to reach that price level once again. A good number of people are now wondering if this will play out similarly to 2017. However, based on the data, we will head significantly higher this year!
YTD Growth
In 2017 we experienced an incredible 1,800% year-to-date (YTD) growth by the time we reached $19,500. Conversely, this year, the YTD growth stood at only 170%, ten times less than in 2017! No matter how you look at it, a 1,800% growth is a lot even for cryptocurrencies. Therefore, when Bitcoin reached $19,500 in 2017, the price was hugely overextended. However, when we reached $19,500 this year, we were only up by 170%, and thus we have more room for growth.
Yes, it can be argued that Bitcoin is less volatile now than it was back then, which accounts for the more limited growth. But any way you look at it, it is not ten times less volatile!
Price Reaction to All-Time High
Perhaps the most important difference between 2017 and 2020 is the different reaction the price had when reaching $19,500. When BTC made the all-time high in 2017, it immediately experienced a severe 40% correction in just six days! In 2020, BTC experienced a substantial 15% in only two days. However, following this we saw an immediate reversal where the price pushed even higher to $19,800!
What Happens Next?
We can never predict for certain what will happen in this market. However, based on the data, it is probable that we are just at the beginning of the uptrend. We may be somewhere around $5,000 when compared to the 2017 bull-run, still expecting Bitcoin to triple or quadruple in value in the future.
Bitcoinbullish
Bitcoin is on Track to Reach All-Time High!With the breakthrough of the $17,000 resistance, Bitcoin is now on track to its all-time high at $20,000!
Breakthrough Importance
The breakthrough of the $17,000 is of utmost importance as it was the last significant resistance on Bitcoin’s path to $20,000. This level acted as a resistance before Bitcoin reached the all-time high, and afterward, it prevented Bitcoin from reaching $20,000 again.
What Happens Next?
This level was the strongest in Bitcoin’s path to $20,000. Therefore, due to the strength of the bullish momentum, Bitcoin will probably test its all-time high once again in the near future. However, Bitcoin hasn’t touched this level in nearly three years, and it is unlikely that we will achieve a breakthrough and make new all-time highs just yet.
The most probable short term outcome is that we will push close to $20,000, get rejected by this level, and head back to $17,000. This rally has been very impressive so far but also dangerous. In total, Bitcoin rose by around 65% in just 42 days; this equates to approximately 1.5% growth every day for the past six weeks. While this rally has been great for holders and traders, it is only natural that some form of correction will ensue.
If a correction follows soon, then the newly broken $17,000 level will be the first important support level. Following this level will be the $16,000 support BTC broke last week, and then finally, we have the $14,000 level. Although Bitcoin can fall even further than $14,000, that is not as likely to happen. Many traders and investors expect Bitcoin to be very bullish in the upcoming year due to the halving and increasing institutional investment.
Mentally Preparing for the upcoming Bitcoin bull run Bitcoin daily time frame from the start of May until the end of December. This post is to mentally prepare us for when a pullback of Bitcoin happens. Hold your position because it will rally back higher than before.
I measured the rallies and pullbacks from the peaks and troughs. The yellow line underneath is the 20 week moving average which needs to be held to maintain our bull market. We currently about 41% above the 20 week moving average. A pullback of 30% would bring us to the 20 week. I am extremely bullish on Bitcoin but I am prepared for 20-30% pullback to open before we rally higher.
Third Time’s the Charm! Bitcoin Achieves Resistance BreakthroughBitcoin has already tried and failed to break the newly formed $16,000 resistance twice. The third time was a charm and a breakthrough was finally achieved.
Current Uptrend Analysis
Since October 8th BTC has been in a near-constant uptrend, growing by more than 50%. One of the best indicators for judging the uptrend on the 4h chart is the 50 EMA. The 50 EMA has stayed below the price during this bull run and acted as a support upon which the BTC’s price has retraced to, before pushing higher. The 50 EMA acted as support after both failed attempts at breaking $16,000.
The Bollinger Bands have also been a useful indicator to judge this uptrend. When the Bands widened, the volatility increased, and BTC showed a clear trend closely following the upper band. When the bands tightened, BTC was locked in a range. The Bands are currently somewhere in the middle, not very wide but also not very tight.
Another critical aspect to note is that we have seen BTC making higher lows during this uptrend. The fact that it continued making higher lows holds weight, as it showcases that the coin is still very bullish, and the uptrend doesn’t look like it will face a significant correction at the moment.
Breakthrough
Yesterday Bitcoin finally succeded in breaking the $16,000 resistance. The price has edged ever closer to the resistance, and then it finally achieved a breakthrough. The price may now retest $16,000 to confirm the breakthrough before moving higher.
The next target for Bitcoin now stands at $17,000. This level acted as an important resistance during the December 2017 bull run.
BTC Injected w/ Bullishness from PaypalMy Fellow Crypto Traders,
Appreciate you taking the time to view my analysis, in which I hope you may find it beneficial. Please be sure to “LIKE” if you indeed find my analysis useful and/or find my analysis intriguing.
Also, I’m new to charting game and the crypto/stock space. So, if you have any constructive criticism or tips, please share.
Cheers & Happy Trading!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ANALYSIS:
BTC's price action yesterday was induced by Paypal's announcement of Bitcoin custodianship, which has been rumored for months. In most cases, this type of movement to the upside is unstainable, in which results in a deep correction to lower support. However, a player like Paypal, who pulled in roughly $17.77B in rev in 2019 will force the hand of others to follow suit and embrace the crypto space.
Bitcoin Begins RecoveryRecently, Bitcoin has been trapped in a range between $9,800 and $10,500. After failing to break the resistance several times, BTC finally achieved a breakthrough four days ago on September 14.
Where to Next?
After achieving the breakthrough, BTC’s price has slowly crawled its way up to $11,000. Due to the slow increase of only 4% in two days, BTC has been unable to achieve another breakthrough at $11,000.
The price may pull back to the previous resistance level at $10,500 before retesting $11,000. If the market becomes bullish, the price may not even reach $10,500 before retesting the resistance. However, the chances of that occurring are low.
If the new support at $10,500 breaks, then we will probably see the price retrace to $9,800, or even further to $9,000.
Why do some traders believe in 30k - 60k by the end of 2021?Hello there, I'm finally back from my holidays and here is my view for BTCUSD . Enjoy!
It's been a while and I've been missing this stuff, so I'll go straight to the point: I'm one of those who believe that Bitcoin is going to the moon very soon. Let me explain why...
So basically this chart is made up of two patterns which state respectively a major and a minor uptrend. The bigger bull pennant is the dump and recicling time so that bulls take a rest or eventually sell some of their bags and make profit and is visible also on weekly and monthly timeframe, where uptrend is still intact both on relative strength index and moving average convergence divergence since 2016 (older data isn't available for this ticker); the smaller rising channel is a confirmation for the uptrend which started on April 16th on macd, on April 25th on rsi. The first one was suddenly and unforeseenly on July 27th causing a big pump towards 12k, then price action came back down and couldn't manage to re-break it until today; the other will be eventually broken out, the direction is upto traders by now.
So now here we come, let's speak about some important levels. If you zoom out on higher timeframes you'll see, thanks to Fibonacci levels, that price action insisted between some particular values, which we can use to explain why there were so many buyers during last January: the movement is of a typical bearish Gartley pattern in which AC can vary between .382 - .618 - .883 levels. The only one point we miss now (textbook Gartley needs it to be .786, around 16.3k) is a key level, where also an important sell off area is located. This makes me think price will need a big retracement from those highs (maybe in the form of a wedge/pennant - as much down as 7k!), in order to take another rest before aiming for a new all-time-high.
Here it comes what we're talking about: all those moves will take place faster than you expect and last lows before the rally restarts won't be seen later than April 2021. What then? A moonshot. Literally. And only greed can stop price from flying. Targets will be as high as 1.618 (30k) - 2.618 (47k) - 4.618 (81k) and their logarithmic big brothers (62k - 396k - 16M).
Hope you liked this greedy comeback, see you on next prediction!
Trade safe and be your own bank. Anlvis
BTC BULLISH UPDATE!Bitcoin tested & broke Daily Resistance. As a result, price made strong bullish moves just as predicted. I'm predicting more bullish action to follow because Bitcoin is currently still in an Ascending Channel on a higher Time-frame. The next area I believe it will reach is 11970.00. If it does test & break that as well. The Bulls may be back to takeover for good. With a solid confirmation of course. Thank you for viewing my analysis. Please check my last analysis if you haven't done so yet. It is appreciated!
Bitcoin - Bullish monthly closeBitcoin price closed monthly above previous resistance and near the weekly resistance at $11550.
After months of bear market (triggered by the previous 14k re-test) the overall trend is clearly bullish. Next big HTF resistance at $14k, retest of the monthly support at $10.800 is possible.
Not plan to short it, buying dips instead (at least up to 14k).
Hit the "LIKE" button and follow to support, thank you!
Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research.
Bitcoin Halving Comparison, So Far So Good!History tends to repeat itself, and the bitcoin halving appears to be no exception to this particular rule.
In 2016, during the second BTC halving, the BTC price experienced strong growth before the halving. A bear market followed, consisting of a 40% drop in price from the pre-halving high to the post-halving bottom. Afterward, a lengthy ranging period ensued.
Before the third halving that took place in May 2020, Bitcoin also experienced strong growth of more than 150% from $3,800 to $10,000; just like in 2016, a fast crash followed just before the halving. However, the 2020 crash was truncated and nowhere near as severe as the bear market that traders saw in 2016. Based on this comparison, we can infer that a short correction may follow before the bull market commences. Bitcoin is currently experiencing a range.
It took BTC around 160 days to break through the highest price before the halving. We currently sit at 67 days after the halving. While Bitcoin cycles are similar, they are not the same. While it would be impossible to predict accurately when the bullish market will start, based on past trends we can predict that it will most likely occur somewhere between 100-200 days after the halving (or 30 to 130 days from today).
Be a contrarian: Long the channel dip Price is 8.9k and a lot of people have made very bearish calls. Given the economic situation and bitcoin spx correlation, we can definately see that. That being said its important to remember last crash we spent nealy 2 months in denial of the covid situation. Even after it spread to italy and caused hundreds of deaths, market went up.. Even when a lockdown was announced there markets went up. Only till it spread to south korea did the markets start correcting rapidly. Total time from initial outbreak was roughly 2 months. It is possible for the market to be in denial for 1-2 months and a large move up can be seen. Since so many traders are calling for a crash, the markets being interesting as they are will likely not do it at that time.
Bitcoin, Bull Market officially started, next Target in the MoonEven Bitcoin had been in decline a few weeks ago and dropped to around 6k, I still think it will go at least to 40k by December 2020. After that, 90k is your next target by the end of 2021. A Bull market for BTC/USD should end by the year 2022.
STOP WHINING - BITCOIN RUNNING UPI wonder why we should frustrate the work done so far. Bitcoin is in positive trend and under very important resistance. Positions are liquidated are good for exchanges and whales. And while I hear many of us fearfully thinking about a new collapse. The indicator of complacency and distribution, followed by the inverse divergences, is clear. They are slowly buying your bitcoins again at low cost.
It will be like this. They will start with starting stop losses below 6k, maybe up to 5.8k. Then in the meantime you all think you have saved value by selling you will see the price bounce up to 8k.
Positive result achieved for whales and exchanges that in this moment of "our" distribution, they are "accumulating" because in truth great falls on the AD chart speak clearly.
Reverse divergences are also a strong signal. There are graphs from 1H, which appeared 22 hours ago, to 4H and 1D.
In short, you sell off, for me it goes straight to 7.6-7.8. A weak bitcoin is not good for anyone. The mining sector and the whole sector would suffer.
Full speed ahead and let's break through these last two supports.
BTC some tips and ideas, clear 9200 for continuation to 9500.Here some explaination to what happened here:
-Clear uptrend on daily chart and weekly still valid.
-Market structure intact with a "buy the dip mode".
-Liquidity pool tapped.
Lady BTC BOTTOM showing some big buys and accumulation during the dip and chop.
Lady Arrow v2 showing a buy signal flipped during a clear break of short term downtrend
Bullish.
Enjoy
Bitcoin targets 9973 with 99% probability until 11th March 2020I have done a statistical analysis on BTCUSD chart and looks like there's 99% probability that Bitcoin will hit 9973.40 until 11th March. We can expect a pump anytime sooner. Just watch and get ready.
PS. I think this move will start sooner but for now, i can say until 11th March 2020
Disclaimer: This is not a financial or investment advice.
Remember to follow me for more
Trade safe,
Atilla Yurtseven
BTCUSD 3 Strong Signals Signally Possible Long-term UptrendHere are the 3 most strongest signals that point to BTCUSD starting on a long-term bullish uptrend, Take your time to go through the signals through the daily and weekly charts usng the moveing averages provided.
If you are still skeptical, take a look at how the price reacted when the bearish and bullish signals occurred on previous occasions. I have attached the chart that show the 50EMA and 100MA crossing recently.
ETHUSD also has the same strong points and it is possibly starting its own long-term uptrend maybe even to look for that new high. No nothing is 100%, but we have to give weight and respect these signals and avoid getting into trades opposite of what these long-term trend signals are telling you. Signals such as these sometimes only come out once every few months sometimes even up to a year.
Thanks for your time and for allowing me to share my thoughts.
This is not financial advice. Just sharing my point of view and touching on the 3 main major signals that are showing us that a long-term uptrend is a real possibility here. No I cannot be certain nor can anyone say for certain the price movement as indicated will take place, I am sharing this especially for those who are still bearish for them to at least consider this information first before getting into a short trade.
BTCUSD 50EMA & 100MA Bullish Cross Long-term Signal FormingBTCUSD 50EMA and 100MA Moving Averages on the Daily Chart have just crossed signalling a possibly long-term bullish trend. 50EMA and 100MA cross patterns have historically been very good at signalling a trend reversal. Check out BTCUSD and even ETHUSD daily charts with the 50EMA and 100MA moving averages. Both has only recently crosses signnalling a bullish long-term trend.
Wait for more confirmation cause these lines can sometimes be pulled away with sudden bearish or bullish price action to cancel out the pattern and signal. Take note that the price value calculated on the chart starts and ends every time the moving averages cross bullish or bearish, so it is a very conservative number. If you are able to determine the tops and bottoms you can gain even more or you may have your own take profit targets based on your own research and probably gain more than what is shown in the chart.
Just wanted to share an observation. I am bullish on BTCUSD. The way up is not a straight line, there will be minor corrections and retracements but don't let the bears get to to you. As long as the bullish signals play out we are well on our way.
Nothing is 100%. Trade only what you can afford to lose. This is only an observation and not financial advice. Please do your own research and if you want to get in a trade wait for more confirmation and plan the best entry point. Also look out for bullish and bearish regular and hidden divergences on this uptrend when it happens as these are good patterns to use in deciding entry points and exit points of your trades. Refer to link.
Good luck everyone!