BTC - past and present comparison analysisGood day fellow crypto participants,
looking at the past Bitcoin Bear-Market we can find many clues that could help us determine future price movements.
Of course, I doubt that history will exactly repeat itself but it can surely give us some good reference points.
So first let´s look at the RSI in 2014 where we made our first low at roughly the ~30 level region,
then forming an ABC correction, wicking through the upper white trendline just to test the lower white trendline to come crashing down again
and making a second low on the RSI and the price chart.
That is where the ultimate bottom was formed in the past.
Nowadays we can already see a slight difference to the past, like closing below the .786 fib. level.
Nevertheless the resemblence is definetly there, like closing a few weeks above the upper white trendline only to fall heavily through it
and nearing the ~30 level RSI region again.
But where do we go from here?
Altough I can say with confidence that we will likely go into a correction before printing the second low on the RSI (not saying that the first low is in yet)
and the price chart to form the bottom that we are all looking forward to, I won´t predict where exactly since that is just pure speculation.
For this reason I have marked the important support regions I will be keenly looking out for.
I will say that the probability is very high to bounce off one of these levels/regions especially off these fib levels and blue boxes and that the chance that we fall below $1000 is very low. Well nothing is impossible but I will only be averaging down to around $900, if it really falls lower then I´ll maybe sell my house and car to buy more? Just kidding of course, don´t invest what you can´t afford to lose. But seriously at what point would you stop buying Bitcoin $500, §300, $200, $150, $70, $0 ?
The crypto market needs adoption, regulations, ETF´s, more real life value and at the pace we are going right now I really believe that it won´t take too long before seeing more and more signs of a new bullrun so I will audaciously say that we will find the real bottom in the 1st Quarter of 2019 and then slowly creep upwards.
So that was my grandscale past and present analysis on Bitcoin, hope some of you might find this helpful.
Feedback would be genuinely appreciated!
Cheers,
from Kaizer
- Not financial advise, only sharing my thoughts here -
