Bitcoin: a painful plummet?Fib time analysis has captured beautifully recent swing highs/lows, suggesting 20th March to be a key date.
If we re-enter the downward channel from ATH, this will be extremely bearish.
The Mt Gox trustee has only sold 35k of 166k BTC he holds - so further dumps WILL happen - we just don't know when. This fact alone, once widely understood, could cause the price to tank, regardless of whether any further sell off's actually occur.
Total Market Cap is falling as investors and HODLERS get increasingly nervous about the future.
Taking a step back and looking at the chart objectively, it is patently clear that Bitcoin has followed the bubble paradigm perfectly and as such, further deeper lows should be expected. How low? Hopefully not to $700.
Bitcoincrash
Let's short the king (BTC) (Updated) Final target: $4400.- Risk: Medium
Please be advised that this is only an idea, so you are responsible for any losses yourself.
Dear followers,
This is only an update of my previous idea BTC -1.60% idea, but I post this updated chart and explanation to keep a clear overview of it. (See related ideas for the previous updates) We reached our first target $9600 and we are heading towards our next target. I'm short for an average of $11.318,02 te be precisely and I took some profits at the first target. Yesterday, I changed my SL to $9550. So it's impossible to lose money in this trade for me now. I already made a huge profit.
I posted my previous idea when BTC was in a bullish recovery, so a lot of people were targetting BTC on $20.000,- again. I posted my bearish idea and I received some angry messages on Twitter and people called me crazy and an idiot. No hard feelings, but these are emotional messages and I think the chance is high that you are also not able turn of emotions in a trade. Please, turn of your emotions if you trade. I wish everyone the best and high profits. Let's say this: I'm not always right but I just follow my TA and I know I'm more often right then wrong. That's how I make my profits. If you don't agree, please post your chart and we can discuss it in a normal way. I like to see and discuss other ideas in a normal way. That's why we are here and how we learn from each other. :)
For me it's very simple: we are down $12.000 within 3 months. We saw three lower highs and a double top is formed. Sorry, but it's very clear for me that we are in a bearish market and I'm happy that I'm not one of the HODL-ers. My Twitter followers know, that I have a 100% cash position in crypto for the first time since 2014. I sold all my positions on the 7th of March. It was a good choice for now. I'll buy back crypto when the time is there. E.g.: our final target 50ma weekly can be a good entry point. But first let's see how things will develop.
Analysis:
What we saw was a recovery in a downtrend where we are in since 12-30 after we broke a main support line. (Dotted red line). That downtrend was confirmed again after we broke another strong support. (2-16, red dotted line). We recovered towards resistance (2) as expected and we went down from there.
Support 1 is a strong support level , but I wouldn't be suprised if we will break it next days/ weeks. Around this support level we find the raising 200ma (our previous final target). This makes this level even stronger. A break through these supports will accelerate a big sell-off towards the raising weekly 50 ma (4200 now). I expect the 50ma weekly around 4400 when we reach it. A bounce from support 1 might give us the chance to expand short positions again around resistance 2, because we take partially profit at each profit target.
Profit targets:
Target 1: 9600 (Reached: Previous idea)
Target 2: 7650 (support line 1)
Target 3: 6200
Target 4: 50ma weekly (Now 4200, then around 4400?)
In summary, we are in a downtrend and support (1) is going to be a though one. If we bounce it. I'll expand my short positions around resistance (2) and I'll take profit at the profit targets.
I'm sorry for the Bitcoin -1.60% -2.24% lovers again and good luck!
Please, follow and like for more trading ideas.
Questions? Feel free to ask and your feedback is welcome!
Bitcoin Market Cycle Watch - Based on Wall Street Cheat SheetThe current Bitcoin market cycle plotted against the Wall Street cheat sheet.
Let's see if BTC decides to follow this infamous model and how long it might take to complete the cycle.
The time durations plotted in the chart are purely based on the Cheat Sheet and not any T.A.
This is purely to satisfy my curiosity as to whether we are seeing King Bit following a textbook market cycle.
Double Top neckline Broken.In this variation of my most recent chart we see that the downward pennants (continuation patterns) are playing out and the price has finally broken the neckline of the Double Top. This validates a downward breakout. This should have triggered stop losses if you hadn't sold already. In addition to the neckline being broken we also see that the crucial 50% fib retracement level has also been broken. This is an additional validation of a continuing downtrend. Any time we see a break above or below a .5 Fib line we expect to see the trend continue in whichever direction it was headed.
At this point I would not buy in until volatility diminishes and bollinger bands narrow at some point in the future. If you attempt to buy in until then you are essentially attempting to catch a falling knife.
It is time now to abandon emotional hodling and make this potentially dire situation work out in our favor. We have the opportunity to double our holdings by waiting for the right moment to re-enter the markets. Otherwise we will be stuck holding bags awaiting recovery. But most people will eventually cut their losses at the exact wrong moment, somewhere near the bottom where people like me (hopefully) will be slowly buying back in and accumulating all of the coins lost to negative market sentiment.
If you don't feel comfortable executing trades in this bear market then I would suggest you avoid looking at charts for a long while. The last time this type of market crash occurred for Bitcoin it took two full years for the markets to recover. Those who didn't sell at this point in 2014 watched their BTC go all the way down from 1200 to around 200 USD and fluctuate around that level until the winter of 2017. It is very possible that this can occur again.
Before you respond with emotion and negativity I would ask that you please evaluate yourself and see if you are being subjected to confirmation bias. Otherwise, all disagreements, criticism, and competing arguments are encouraged and welcomed.
I'm here to make money and to learn. If you have a strong suspicion that I am wrong, I will gladly accept any criticism.
Btc projections with fibonacci and rate of climb..!using the max , mean and min rate of limb and trend based fibonacci retracements, the levels marked in green are the estimations of the forward prices in bitcoins over usd...
For the projection 20th march has been chosen as C point retracement to AB in the abc retracement..!
Interesting to watch..
No plans to trade nor invest...
Bitcoin Bear FlagA potentially nice bear flag is setting up on the #BTC 4 hour chart.
Stoch RSI indicator is approaching overbought levels.
Using the length of the flagpole, we get a target of $8571...
... but I think the 50% fib retracement level of $8,868 from the recent bottom tot he recent high may well act as support as it previously held as resistance on two instances as the price rebounded from the bottom.
I want to see BTC -0.44% take a hard dip below these levels to establish whether the last bottom truly was the bottom, as at this stage I remain unconvinced and am still leaning toward the possibility of new lower low that will take us below $6k.
Update idea
Bitcoin Headed to $5,000 this month? Market has been testing the $10,8k level the last 18 hours, and has yet to break through. It is clear that the market is wearing thin of it's bullish tendencies. It also follows my TA well that $10,8000 to $11,400 will be reversal territory.
In another FUD-induced scenario, we could expect BTC to fall to $5,000 - $4,600. Check yourself this weekend, as Monday/Tuesday will likely see some big price movements.
XRP at Key stageIf we somehow edge above the psychological level of 1$ before the next 4hr candle opens at 4am, then please expect XRP to move to 1.35$, which is the next resistance. However, after 4am, if the candle that opens is a bullish one then the bears have clearly lost the battle as price consistency seems to be declining at this levels due to bears coming into the market at this price. The Rsi also shows that it is at a key stage were historically it was knocked down into oversold zone. Moreover, after the 8am candle closes, if we see a bearish move away from the 1$ mark that is a good sign and should mean we are going down to 0.85$ fairly easily.
Bitcoin will hit 8.100$ in 48 hoursHi Traders, quick update on Bitcoin here.
We go to the 1 hour chart and see that price is consolidating sideways. If we break the red zone below than we can expect huge momentum.
A harmonic move will lead us to 8100 really quick, I expect that target in the next 48 hours.
**This analysis is no investment recommendation. Do your research on your own!**
BITCOIN "CRASH" really a crash? Two possible scenarios!Hey tradomaniacs,
I know i know.. take a deep breath and chillax.
Everyone is talking about the bubble..the CRASH.. the DEATH of Bitcoin & Co.
Well..since we had this strong hype that was almost utopistic everyone felt like Bitcoin & CO were unstoppable.
But why? Why would you think like that? Because we have a big market of players with no freaking clue how the market, the psychology, and this entire world works.
Unexperienced gambler were those who let the pros win this game. And what we see is people who were buying at BTCs peek and consolidation-phase.
Now it`s time to let them regret to even think about investing in Bitcoin! Right? This is how the market works.
Of course.. I sound naughty. But this is how this game works. If you win, someone else loses. You buy, someone sells. You sell - someone buys.
We know that this "Crash" which is obviously a joke compared to this awesome but unhealthy rally we had is also caused by bad news from china and sout korea.
BTC has still its scale-problems a lot of teams are working on. Buzt are we patient enough?
I like this paradoxal phenomenon that we are the ones who are afraid of the crash but CAUSE that crash with SELL- orders not willing to invest in other COINS which could give us nice "hedge-possibilitys" to diversify and still be able to make profits when BTC drops. But.. the market is irrational.
What we see is still a joke of a "crash". As long as we hold the primary trendline plus the 200 MA it`s still all good. We had a 257% run within 35 DAYS after the last "crash" down to 5.500 USD which is crazy compared to this high price per BTC we actually have/had. Now we had a 48% loss within 35 days. You should always see that "correction" or "crash" in relation to the climb we had.
We might test the 10k.
We might climb back to 20k.
We might consolidate.
We might drop down to 8k.
But we still see a nice profit we had after this rally. ;)
Just chill.. get a plan and strategie. It`s not worth to die by a heart attack because you check your blockfolio every 5 Mins. ;-)
May we shall start with an ecosystem and start to stop thinking the the entire Cryptoworld dies with its King called Bitcoin.
May we should start to invest into alternatives? Like Altcoins? ;-D
Piece and good trades,
Stay calm!
VTC Wedge updateBTC took a hit recently due to the Chinese markets, this is how I think it has effected VTC; and how I think it will recover.