BTCUSD Future Price Projection 1D Chart(Lines may be slightly off since using a tiny work monitor ATM and hard to get it just right at this resolution)
I have compared the current uptrend to the uptrend ending in 2018. I began wave 1 where the candles deviated from the bottom red support and purple resistance channel. I ended it where it hit the blue resistance line and bounced back to retest the purple as support. Once confirmed, it broke through the blue resistance and then came back to confirm blue resistance turned support. I eneded the pattern at the previous ATH.
I began the current uptrend again from the same red support after the confirmation of breakout from the downtrend at the pink/red intersection.
Again, we have hit the blue resistance line and have now bounced back to the purple support. If we follow what happened last time, we will bounce above blue and then confirm it as support before a big final push.
I then got curious as far as percentages of ups and downs as well as timing. I measured each part of the previous uptrend and got the following:
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0-1 = +247% and 77D
1-2 = -41% and 38D
2-3 = +179% and 48D
3-4 = -35% and 13D
4-5 = +490% and 93D
0-5 = +2116% and 266D
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I then measured the new uptrend (with the assumption it plays out the same but who knows obviously)
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0-1 = +303% and 92D
(again, obviously there is nothing to measure after yet really)
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I then divided 0-1 old with 0-1 new to get a ratio of difference between the two.
247/303 = 0.815 and 77/92 = 0.83
I then applied this to the previous trend to "project" the new values of the current uptrend if it happens to follow the same ratio and this is what I got.
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New Projection based off ratio of 0-1 old and new
0-1 = +303% and 92D
1-2 = -33% and 45D
2-3 = +219% and 57D
3-4 = -43.5% and 15D
4-5 = +601% and 112D
0-5 = +3312% and 310D
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I then drew the new pattern on the current uptrend while measuring out the projection as closely as possible. Interestingly enough, it shows the pattern doing basically the exact same thing and bouncing on and off the same support/resistances. Granted, the pattern is directly based off the previous pattern so I guess it kind of makes sense at the end of the day.
I am posting partly for reference later out of curiosity how close it ends up being. I have been expecting to see a bounce off the 55 EMA since this current downward price action started, but based off this it is still looking like 28K or so will be the current bottom unless it deviates from past action. If 28k fails, a 20k retest wouldn't surprise me, but it just seems a bit too early for everyone to panic sell. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I'm literally betting against that happening I suppose. I would more expect a 40k retest of the red trend line after the (5) on my chart (which coincidentally will hit this at almost the same 356D it took the 20k old ATH to retest it.)
Another reason for posting this is to illustrate to others how minimal this last big push was in the grand scheme of things. Most just see a 20-40k jump and it blows their minds, but to me it just looks like the usual for BTC. This projection puts us above $300k in mid August 2021.
This is meant to be a long term projection as well as an illustration of old vs new price action for some who may have not really looked at charts or currently have their minds blown of the last uptrend or the current 10k price drop. Don't focus on the $ change but instead look at the % change compared to past price movements. (Also, i look at charts in log scale)
Side note: the 55 EMA and 200 EMA I watch closely for crossovers on the 1D and 4H charts but mainly the 1D charts. (Yellow and Purple squiggles if you don't know what it is)
Sorry this is long winded, but I also did this to show to a few buddies who have commented on BTC recently and worried they missed the train again. If we look at the past, the gravy train is just about to start. 28 - 30k price range looks like a pretty promising buy to me. Dips below may happen, but I personally wouldn't panic yet.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not a professional, trade at your own risk. This is simply me sharing my thoughts and plans for my personal trades. Win or lose at your own peril.
Thanks for checking it out. Please like/comment if you agree or feel free to chime in if you disagree.
