BTC.D New Update (3D)First of all, pay attention to the timeframe; it’s a daily timeframe, and this analysis is time-consuming.
The subwaves of this index are numerous, even in higher timeframes, which results in multiple technical analysis scenarios. However, we always identify the most probable scenario.
Given the lack of a drop in Bitcoin dominance over the past weeks, despite losing the trendline, it can be inferred that the wave structure of this index is likely not yet complete.
From the bottom, we believe there is a double combination pattern, with both combinations appearing to be diametrics.
It seems that the primary peak of Bitcoin dominance will be within this red zone.
The waves have been marked on the chart.
Overall, it appears that this index intends to hunt a specific area before dropping. Let’s see what happens.
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Bitcoindominance
Bitcoin UP x Bitcoin Dominance Down = ALTSEASONCRYPTOCAP:BTC 📈 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D 📉 = Altseason
✅While bitcoin dominance continues to decrease in February 2017, meanwhile, bitcoin continues to rise and #Altcoin season is experienced for 11 months.
✅While bitcoin dominance continues to decrease in January 2021, meanwhile, bitcoin continues to rise and #Altcoins season is experienced for 11 months.
✅Bitcoin dominance is declining in January 2025 and meanwhile bitcoin continues to rise so we are likely to witness the #Alts season over the next 11 months
BTC Dominance UPDATE (12H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
Market makers always do things to prevent retail traders from identifying the next direction. The support from the previous analysis has been engulfed, but this bounce is for order accumulation.
Based on the data available for this index, it seems we have a triangle instead of a diagonal wave B. The red zone is where candles could be rejected to the downside, and altcoins may perform better compared to Bitcoin.
A daily candle closing above the invalidation level would completely negate this outlook.
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ALTSEASON There is nothing more bullish than Altcoins right now.Simple charting is always the best.
The BTC Dominance just got rejected and once it crosses under the 1week MA50, it will confirm the start of the new altseason.
This is a pattern that we see every 4 years. The previous rejection and altseason took place in January 2021 and the one before in January 2017.
On top of that, the 1W RSI is getting rejected on its 10 year Resistance trendline.
This is the last call to invest in altcoins.
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Get ready for ALT-SEASON!We got confirmation on breaking uptrend channel downwards in last few weeks and we all know what that means. More CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D goes down better for alt-coins. 47-51% is the range I am looking for. There are few alt-coins haven't made major moves in last year, I will post about it soon. Keep posted!
BTC.D - Still in the ascending channelCRYPTOCAP:BTC.D remains firmly within its long-standing ascending channel. The recent “fake breakout” below the channel has been invalidated as dominance swiftly returned to the channel, showing a strong reaction and confirming the channel’s validity.
This suggests:
✅ Bullish Implication for BTC: Bitcoin is likely to continue gaining dominance in bullish moves, outpacing altcoins in performance.
✅ Bearish Impact on Altcoins: In downturns, altcoins are expected to experience sharper declines compared to Bitcoin.
Traders should monitor this channel as a key indicator for market behavior, especially for Bitcoin and altcoin strategies.
BTC.D Breakdown the Next Altcoin Bull Run Closer Than You Think?Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is a crucial metric that reflects Bitcoin's market share relative to the overall cryptocurrency market. A rising dominance often signifies Bitcoin outperforming altcoins, while a declining dominance suggests increased strength in altcoins or a broader altcoin rally. The current chart provides critical insights into the state of Bitcoin dominance, the potential implications for market dynamics, and the timeline for future movements.
Key Observations and Technical Insights
1. Breaking the Rising Wedge Pattern
The weekly chart shows a classic rising wedge pattern that Bitcoin dominance has adhered to for an extended period. A breakdown from this pattern is a bearish signal, indicating a potential shift in dominance from Bitcoin to altcoins.
The wedge breakdown was accompanied by significant bearish momentum, validated by a retest of the breakdown level.
This technical development is a strong indication that BTC.D has entered a new phase of its trend.
2. Current Consolidation Zone
Following the breakdown, BTC dominance has entered a consolidation phase within the highlighted rectangular box (approximately between 53.2% and 58%).
The consolidation suggests market indecision as Bitcoin retains relative strength but altcoin activity starts to increase.
Volume levels during this phase are moderate, reflecting a lack of aggressive participation, which is typical before a major directional move.
3.Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: The upper boundary of the box (58%) aligns with prior rejection levels. A move above this could indicate a temporary resurgence of Bitcoin dominance, potentially due to increased Bitcoin-led market rallies.
Support: The lower boundary of the box (53.2%) is a critical support zone. A sustained break below this level could confirm the next bearish leg.
4. Indicators Supporting the Bearish Bias
Ichimoku Cloud: The dominance has started interacting with the cloud's lower boundary, which acts as dynamic resistance. A clean break below the cloud would further confirm bearish momentum.
MACD Divergence: The MACD histogram is tilting bearish, signaling weakening upward momentum. A bearish crossover on the MACD line would solidify downside expectations.
RSI: The RSI is trending near the midline, showing no extreme conditions. This gives room for further downside before entering oversold territory.
Market Implications and Projections
1. Impact of a Breakdown Below the Box
If BTC dominance decisively breaks below the 53.2% level, it will likely lead to a significant shift in market dynamics.
A drop toward the marked lower levels (approximately 48%, 42.8%, and 39.9%) would indicate the onset of an altcoin season, characterized by robust performance in altcoins.
Historically, such breakdowns in BTC.D have coincided with increased speculation and capital rotation into altcoins, signaling the start of a bull run across the cryptocurrency market.
2. Bull Run Timeline
The estimated timeline for this critical move is Q1 2025, which aligns with broader market cycles and macroeconomic expectations. Institutional interest in crypto, combined with improved market sentiment, could amplify this trend.
3. Potential Scenarios
Bullish Case for BTC.D: A reversal above 58% would require significant Bitcoin-led rallies, possibly fueled by macroeconomic uncertainty or a Bitcoin ETF approval. This scenario delays the altcoin season but strengthens Bitcoin as the primary investment vehicle.
Bearish Case for BTC.D: A sustained decline below 53.2% would confirm altcoin strength and could trigger rapid capital rotation into alternative assets, particularly in high-liquidity altcoins and DeFi protocols.
This chart provides a professional-grade analysis of Bitcoin dominance and its potential impact on market dynamics. The breakdown from the rising wedge, the ongoing consolidation, and the bearish indicators suggest that BTC.D is on the brink of a major directional move. Traders and investors should closely monitor the consolidation box boundaries and prepare for a shift in market structure as BTC dominance declines.
The Q1 2025 timeline for the next leg down aligns with historical patterns and macroeconomic projections. A break below 53.2% will likely usher in a new phase of the crypto market, driven by altcoin strength and increased retail participation. Stay vigilant, as this period could mark the beginning of the next crypto bull run.
Update the scenario for BTC.Dom - When might Altseason actually?Currently, BTC.Dom CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is following the second scenario I mentioned in my previous post. This is the only scenario I can think of right now.
According to this scenario, I predict that from now until Trump's inauguration, it will remain quite challenging for Altcoins.
To determine whether Altseason will occur, it’s best to wait until the beginning of February to make an informed decision about deploying capital.
The image below shows instances of the M-pattern , where the second peak is higher than the first, followed by significant **Altcoin growth** in previous seasons.
If this second scenario doesn’t play out, my concern is that BTC.Dom could return to the 70 region. In that case, Altcoins would be completely crushed, and I truly hope this worst-case scenario doesn’t happen. :(
BITCOIN UPDATE 2025 | ALTSEASON | BTC.DWe'll kick of the first analysis of the new year by taking a look at BTC, and whether or not the conditions are met to say the ATH is in.
Furthermore, let's loo at altseason by comparing the TOTAL3 chart and the Bitcoin Dominance chart. Many secrets lie in these charts if you overlap them, and look for patterns.
Soon, I will be making an update on the top Altcoins to watch in 2025 so be sure to follow so you don't miss it!
__________________
BTC DOMINANCE (4H) UpdateThis analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
From the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart, Bitcoin dominance correction has started.
After completing wave A, the price entered wave B.
Wave B appears to be a diametric, and we are currently in wave f of this diametric.
It seems that one wave g of this diametric remains, which could extend until December 31, 2024. From January 1, 2025, this index may experience a decline. This date aligns with when Trump takes office, bringing various plans for the crypto market.
If a weekly candle closes below the green zone, this scenario will be invalidated, and Bitcoin dominance will likely experience a more significant drop.
For now, this is our perspective on Bitcoin dominance.
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Alt season is just around the corner#BTC.D #Analysis
Description
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+ Bitcoin dominance had an unsuccessfull breakout from the resistance line.
+ dominance is around the resistance zone and now it is headed in the right direction
+ a drop in the bitcoin dominance will push the altcoin prices higher
+ if the dominance is headed in the right direction we can expect a altseason soon.
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BTC.D Analysis: Retest of Key Area Highly LikelyBitcoin Dominance Looking
Bitcoin dominance looks very strong but BTC has entered the range. So I think dominance may follow a calmer course for a while, a few coins that have separated from the herd may make good moves in these few days, but it is too early to claim that the general atmosphere is completely bullish, because SP500 seems to be making a deep correction and is giving signals of this. I do not buy anything during the New Year, and I will not buy, but then I will spend all of these corrections with buying because I believe that 2025 will be good.
A retest of this area in BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) seems very possible based on current market behavior. This level holds significance as a potential reaction zone for further movements.
Also, I see no point in saying that this view of dominance supports the blue box analysis I shared here:
Because when BTC goes down to blue box we will see an upside move on dominance then we blue box of dominance chart will support the price, we will see an upmove on both.
Key Points:
Current Setup: BTC.D is approaching a critical area of interest.
Retest Likelihood: Market dynamics suggest a probable revisit to this zone.
Focus: Monitoring the reaction at this level for future directional clarity.
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I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message.
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Fate of altcoin maket If you look at CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D you can notice that what we called "start of altcoin market" was merely 3 week BTC dominance retrace and when true altcoin market starts, you will notice it by very fast change of narrative and rapid altcoin market growth.
Anyway, I suppose that movements of Altcoin market capitalization will follow some sort of Elliot waves pattern (something like that).
However this altcoin cycle may happen in a very different nature and mostly will be comprised of memecoins, so your old altcoin bought 4 years ago might stay worthless regardless of the altcoin bullish market
When and Where this Bull Market Ends / BTC.D and TOTAL3 BehaviorCRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Bitcoin Dominance and Alt Season Trigger:
The chart indicates that when Bitcoin Dominance reaches around 59%-64%, there’s a high chance of an BTC dominance market correction. This level often signals the end of a Bitcoin rally and the start of funds flowing into altcoins.
You can use this dominance level as a timing signal to anticipate the start of the next alt season.
Historical Patterns and Timelines:
Key vertical markers show important dates from past cycles, such as 2018, 2021, and projected points for 2025. These points highlight recurring patterns that can help forecast the end of the current Bitcoin rally.
TOTAL3 Index Trends Relative to BTC:
The TOTAL3 index (all altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) shows that after Bitcoin Dominance declines, TOTAL3 often experiences a sharp rise. This pattern has repeated in previous cycles, hinting at a potential similar move in the upcoming alt season.
Bitcoin Price Rallies and Corrections:
The lower chart shows Bitcoin's bullish and bearish phases, typically lasting between 450 to 550 days. This timeframe can help estimate the remaining duration of the current Bitcoin rally.
Future Predictions:
Based on the chart, Bitcoin Dominance is expected to reach critical levels again in 2025, potentially marking the start of the next major alt season. While this timeline depends on market conditions and investor behavior, it offers a general framework.
BTC Dominance Chart - BITCOIN DOMINANCEBTC Dominance is the most important chart to follow to understand whether the crypto market is in an altcoin or Bitcoin season.
"We had a great projection regarding the Bitcoin Dominance bearish shift around the 60% level, and it played out perfectly. I’ve linked that projection to this post for reference.
Currently, Bitcoin Dominance is testing the weekly supply zone as a bearish retest. This aligns with the premium side of the Fibonacci, adding to my conviction that we’re likely to see a bearish reversal from here, forming a lower high. This lower high could potentially trigger another leg down in dominance, setting the stage for a strong altcoin season.
I expect this shift to happen very soon.
The exact timing of the Altcoin season !As you know, with the drop in Bitcoin dominance, altcoins yield higher returns compared to Bitcoin. Conversely, when Bitcoin dominance rises, Bitcoin yields higher returns compared to altcoins.
From the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart, it seems that the bearish waves of Bitcoin dominance have begun.
Wave A has been completed, and we are now in Wave B.
Currently, it appears we are in Wave B/X, which is a diametric pattern.
After this diametric, we expect Bitcoin dominance to enter Wave C, which is a bearish wave.
We anticipate that the altcoin season will begin from a high supply level.
This is our perspective on Bitcoin dominance.
Before altcoins undergo further correction, there will be a recovery in wave e of this dominance.
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Bitcoin Dominance Analysis Update (12H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
The price reached the green zone and is now pumping. We anticipate the start of a drop and an alt-season from the upper red zone.
Note that, in terms of price, we consider this area to be the peak of Bitcoin dominance. However, in terms of timing and the number of times this level is tested, there is no certainty. This means that when Bitcoin dominance reaches the upper red level, you can enter altcoins. However, altcoin fluctuations might increase, and it could take some time, as the market maker might cause some turbulence before the main move.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
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