Bitcoin Dominance - Don't be fooled by "snake oil salesmen" DYORHere's what happens when Stochastic of Bitcoin Dominance rises over 85 for 2 Weeks in a row.
CAVEAT: Since Week 4th May 2015 only.
NOT ADVICE DYOR
Bitcoindominance
LINK Looking A Little Bearish (Short Term)My Fellow Crypto Traders,
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ANALYSIS:
It seems that LINK Marines and their longs are hitting a relatively strong resistance level , in which LINK has failed to penetrate through this level. Moreover, w/ the market sentiment signaling greed, it would not surprise me if we see LINK re-test lower supports as a momentum builder to go on and make higher highs. However, w/ BTC maintaining dominance w/in the market, Atls remain second fiddle. This narrative of BTC holding on to dominance for a while longer is supported by BTC's money velocity chart showing lower lows, signaling people are holding BTC vs's trading. Thus w/ major institutional players buying up BTC induces these aggressive BTC moves to the upside.
Short Bitcoin Dominance - Altseason for a couple months?!!!!! I'm liking how Bitcoin Dominance is hitting it's upper channel, ETH/BTC is retesting it's weekly breakout, Total Market Cap looks great, I think it's altseason! Time to load up on ETH, Link etc I think.
Bitcoin Dominance Answers: Altcoin SZN, or another DEAD SZNHey!
This is price action analysis for BTC.D (bitcoin dominance over altcoins).
During next couple of month there is an opportunity for short-term alt season, but we need to see all options.
So importance level are at 66.66% dominance, if price going to break one we going to see huge dump of alts, I can say -50% from current prices over couple of months.
Another hand is more likely we will get an short alt season if btc.d% break down from 65% towards 62.20% this will make alts huge pump. Speaking from my experience it might be over 2x-5x on certain coins/tokens
Check the chart and if you like the visuals, let me know by pressing like.
Stay tuned!
BR,
Artem Shevelev
AAVE Will Make Many of us Millionaires!!!!!!My Fellow Crypto Traders,
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ANALYSIS:
AAVE has final release V2 on the KOVAN Test-net in which takes DeFi to the next level, with debt tokenization, LOWER gas fees, and predictably rates for liquidity providers, and so on. As BTC is dominance is hitting resistance DeFi, along with Alts, should enter a new bullish cycle. However, AAVE needs to set its footing by creating solid support levels, as it continues to make new highs. Therefore, 9EMA is looking to cross the 20EMA to the downside, but maybe a fake-out, in which we get a bounce of the 20EMA and re-test $63 region. And then off to a final leg down for further support confirmation @ $55 and $45 region.
Pack your bags and BTFD!!!!!!!!! AAVE to The MOOM!
DOT Reclaims $5.50 ?My Fellow Crypto Traders,
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ANALYSIS:
DOT has been stuck w/in this region of $4.90 - $3.74 for roughly over 2 months now, which means DOT is extremely undervalued at these levels. Therefore, we should see DOT have one more re-test of the $4.07 - $3.84 support region before the climb back up to re-test the $5.50 resistance. This is supported by the RSI reading overbought on 11/07, in conjunction with the 9EMA looking to cross both the 20EMA and the 50EMA. Moreover, with BTC hitting some resistance on the dominance chart, we should see another cycle of bullishness for Alts.
BTC.D Bitcoin Dominance - Alt season is here!- Bitcoin is weak now, there is not enough fuel to continue parabolic for another weeks
- I think bitcoin will go sideways, and altcoins can experience a nice pump to the upside
- Better to buy ETHEREUM for massive gains
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Altcoins | Reversal Pattern? Altcoin market TA looking pretty good. As Bitcoin's price exploded this week, a retrace can be expected, while altcoins can regain some of its momentum the coming period. The Bitcoin Dominance chart (BTC.D) shows us a retrace in price, while the whole Altcoin market chart (TOTAL2) just broke a key resistance level. This means that money from Bitcoin is moving back into Altcoins (Bitcoin dominance falls > Altcoins regain and vice versa). However, the 200 Moving Average of Bitcoin just made a new all-time high, what is very, very bullish (+ People Fear Of Missing Out). Will we see a higher high for Bitcoin, or is this the perfect time to buy altcoins again?
Market Cycles: How to Overcome the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)In this post, I'll be providing an educational post on the cryptocurrency's market cycle, and how to overcome the fear of missing out, also known as fomo.
It's important to understand that the cryptocurrency market has very clear market cycles.
In order to profit in the cryptocurrency market, it's important to think like a whale .
1. To begin with, whales keep their assets in the form of fiat, or tether (USDT) before the beginning of a market cycle
2. Whales buy Bitcoin with their cash at hand, and this is when we see Bitcoin rally alone
3. Since Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency to rally, Bitcoin dominance soars up along with Bitcoin's price
4. However, the market trend soon changes as the whales, who have profited from Bitcoin, move onto large cap altcoins
5. These are our typical altcoins at the top 20 in terms of market cap
6. After these coins rally, capital then flows into the undervalued coins with a much smaller market cap
7. Because there isn't enough liquidity, these less popular coins tend to break out the hardest, and demonstrate immense risk
8. After whales profit from small cap alts, it's time to convert their assets back to Bitcoin
9. This process is repeated during a bull run, and ultimately converted to fiat in a bear trend.
So, what are we currently seeing in the market today?
Bitcoin
- For Bitcoin, we are seeing a textbook bearish divergence
- In my previous analysis, I have provided consistent updates, in which the divergences I have spotted, both bullish and bearish, have played out perfectly.
- You can check the previous analysis above.
- As such, it's reasonable to expect this divergence on the longer time frame to play out as well
- The higher highs on the price, and lower highs on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is extremely concerning
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also demonstrates decreasing bullish histograms, with a potential death cross in play
Does that mean we have missed the train?
While Bitcoin may be done for the short term (since the uptrend is still intact, and we are seeing higher lows and higher highs on the longer time frames), but there are opportunities to be spotted in the cryptocurrency market.
Ethereum
- Ethereum has been consolidating for a while on the weekly, and has been inactive on the daily
- The Ethereum 2.0 Countdown just recently began, providing bullish stimulus for prices
- Based on the market cycle theory explained above, Bitcoin's short term bearish signals suggests an opportunity for Ethereum to break out
- Considering that Bitcoin dominance is trading within a downtrend over the long term, we could expect price action from Ethereum in the coming days
- For my analysis on ETH's long term price action, check my previous analysis below:
Conclusion
In summary, seeing everyone else make money while you sit on a pile of cash, might be frustrating mentally. But as I always emphasize, trading is a psychological game. Successful traders have a good understanding of the market psychology and cycles. As such, capitalizing on trading opportunities require a combination of proper knowledge and patience. There will always be opportunities, regardless of the market situation, as beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Post Election DOTMy Fellow Crypto Traders,
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Also, I’m new to charting game and the crypto/stock space. So, if you have any constructive criticism or tips, please share.
Cheers & Happy Trading!
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ANALYSIS:
As BTC runs into resistance at 64.9, we could see Alts enter another bullish cycle. With that said, DOT may re-test the lower $3.82 support post-election, and bounce to make higher highs and higher lows. Thus completing a W formation.
Why is BTC dominance important and how it affects altcoins?*DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice as these are purely my opinions and speculations. I do not guarantee any results nor am I responsible for your actions. You should always do your own due diligence before trading or investing in this market as it is extremely risky.
*Follow me for the latest cryptocurrency analyses on my watchlist
*Thank you to those who donated, I very much appreciate it.
*Let me know in the comment section if you agree or disagree, would love to hear your ideas too.
Bitcoindominance / Tension and momentum in this chart. Strong stochastic cross up on the monthly.
63.5 was the level we needed to watch for a while now.
With a 21-50 ma cross, a break of the 50 mma may very well happen. But holding it as support will be the real challenge as it still is a slippery slope.
2 scenarios for Bitcoin Dominance@1 Idea is the Positive Scenario
@2 Idea is the Negative Scenario
In @1 we gonna see a big bearish move on AltCoins
This is my idea... What do you think???
Bitcoin Dominance 8HR Bearish DivergenceCould see an ALT rally if this gets rejected and divergence confirms.
Break Through ? BTC.D #btcd #Bitcoin $BTC #cryptoHere we see our Bitcoin Dominance chart that finally broke out of that downtrend channel ! And right now we are sitting inside that 1 day Ichimoku Cloud . I don't think we will drop out of it after spending so much time to get inside of it ! So surely we are either going to the top of the cloud or actually we will break through it . If you see where the red arrow is pointing near the end of October ? That looks like a very probable area to break up through the cloud and continue this Dominance rise . Of course Bitcoin broke up to 11100 last night so we are seriously expecting 13k ( some are calling 15k also but we have to wait and see on that . ) Also can you see the Blue gift on the chart ? That marks November 3rd which is the US election and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some fireworks then !
Bitcoin dominance is bullish and alts are going to hell ?!💎BTC.D🌴FREE UPDATE🌴
💎Yello😎! BTC dominance is following our analysis perfectly since 13th July.
💎After the dominance saw a bounce from the strong support at 57.72%, thankfully we decided to stop trading the altcoins on the spot and look for short opportunities on futures instead. This has been very beneficial for us, as most alts are seeing double-digit losses over the last few days alone and this is giving us a great advantage. We are saving our total capital💰during red days, analysing the strongest coins in the meantime and getting ready to strike once the right time comes to start buying the bottoms.🔥
💎Today BTC tries to grind higher while major alts take some red bars even in the USDT pairs. Which is quite rare and we would recommend staying very cautious of the recent small rally of Bitcoin. Also, Ethereum's lack of participation is likely a negative sign for BTC📉!
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
Possible bearish retest for BTC.D looking good for Altcoins?*DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice as these are purely my opinions and speculations. You should always do your own due diligence before trading or investing.
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*Let me know in the comment section if you agree or disagree, would love to hear your ideas too.
Why BTC pairs matter1. Most liquidity in the space goes through Bitcoin. Still most alts have BTC pairs, most derivatives volume is on BTC and it is also frequently used as collateral for margin trading. People can easily sell BTC to get USDT to buy alts.
2. In 2019 from the lows, BTC went up and squeezed all alts. Alts bottomed vs BTC when Binance closed US accounts & Bakkt launched. We saw two smaller ones this year and several in the past.
3. Synthetic BTC longs via ALTUSD (long) & ALTBTC (short) tend to push alts down when BTC rallies hard as it can be cheaper than a BTCUSD long
4. Alts do best when Bitcoin volatility is low as traders play with them, but when volatility on Bitcoin gets back they tend to do badly. Alts are like invesrse Bitcoin options (short Bitcoin vol)
5. Alts are a very inflationary asset class. Lots of new coins coming on the market, most of which have high inflation (airdrops, bounties, teams dumping, high/mining staking rewards etc)...
6. The less BTC on exchanges and the more held by companies like Microstrategy, Square, Grayscale etc... The less BTC can be used to pump alts. However there is still 2.5-3.5M BTC on exchanges that can be used to buy alts (currently ~30-40B, which is higher than the total stablecoin market cap). During the bull run this number could grow even more both because BTC goes up but also as more BTC gets on exchanges like in 2016-2017.
7. So if BTC is scarce on exchanges, while there is an abundance of USDs and with more coming into the market... which asset do you want more? The USD that will flow in in massive quantities or something that is becoming less and less available?
8. Many traders still want to accumulate more BTC as it has the potential to go up 5-10-20x from here, while the USD can't. It is like measuring the stocks in USD or Gold in order to know what your real returns where.
9. Finally pairs trades are very common in markets. You can 'create' them even if they don't exist and trade various assets against each other and not just the USD.
For example why trade EURUSD when EURJPY is cleaner? Why go long EURUSD if the EUR looks awful against most other currencies? It doesn't mean you have to trade the certain pair, but it can help you make better choises.
*BTC has 10x more searches than the term cryptocurrency or Ethereum. For someone to get in, they get through Bitcoin first. The hotter Bitcoin is on the news, the more money is flowing into the market and the closer an alt season is.
Overall I think looking at USD/USDT pairs alone, is a terrible way to trade alts. Focusing on USD profits alone is also a terrible way to view this market as your goal is to accumulate something scarce that has high potential to appreciate, not some trash fiat currency that is getting inflated. How insolent do you have to be that you believe that by accumulating USD you will be able to outperform Bitcoin during its bull run? From here it could do a 10x, so will you get more than a 10x? Is it worth your time to try to beat the market, instead of build on top of what the market gives you?
This doesn't mean that only BTC matters and people should only look at BTC charts, quite the opposite. People need to watch both USD & BTC charts, to have a feeling of where the market is at. People need to know where BTC is in the cycle and what its charts looks like. Some times people need to take profits in USD and not BTC. Some times they need to sell some of their BTC. Some times BTC is so overbought, that alts might look cheap vs BTC but not USD. So both are needed and are useful, as long as you have aUSDT pairs are cleaner and can help you estimate things better when it comes to valuations, but as long as you know where BTC is in the cycle and how over/under valued it is... USDT charts are just a mere tool for TA.
BTC.D / Bitcoin Dominance about to drop? #BTC.DThe Bitcoin dominance has been falling ever since september of 2019.
Since late august of 2020 it has been rising though and altcoins have been bleeding against Bitcoin.
Now might be the time to continue the descend.
The level of 60.35 seems to have been significant on numerous occasion, working as both restistance and support in may of 2019 and again july-september of 2020.
The chart went below it mid-august and has since struggled to break above it. I believe it will keep struggling, get rejected again, fall further letting altcoins surge.
Will see...
I still believe that BTC.D should at least go to 50.0 before it's super-domination begins.
What does MA200 tell us about BTC.D and altcoins ?Hello everyone,
I would like to show you another reason, why I think altcoins are not "dead".
If you take a look at left side of the screen (BTC.D - Bitcoin Dominance)
You will realize the MA200 (MA - moving average is commonly used with time series data to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cyclesis pointing) is pointing DOWN on the Weekly chart.
meanwhile on the other hand
If you take a look at right side of the screen (Total2-Crypto total market cap exclude BTC)
You will realize the MA200 is pointing UP on the Weekly chart.
Volume also shows, that Bitcoin to altcoins trades are increasing and its huge last 4 weeks.
Keep please also in mind that BTC.Dominance trend probably finished its Eliott Wave cycle (W1-5)
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If youre in doubts or have any questions then feel free to ask in comments below the chart.
Wish you all nice Weekend
Cheers
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Risk Disclosure
DISCLAIMER: This is not a financial advice ! Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of asset may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. Investing will have impact on your trading account and this can work against you, leading to large losses or can work for you, leading to large gains. As an investor, it's crucial to know how much of your money you could lose and what circumstances could cause this to occur. Always do your own research and think twice before you invest.
Altcoin season should restart soon if THIS pattern plays outThe current situation:
1. A head and shoulders pattern is apparent on the 12HR chart, while the price action is right underneath the 12HR 200MA. The neckline is at about 59.4% with a measured target of about 57.7%
The bullish case for altcoin: if BTC.D gets rejected at the 12HR 200MA and breaks below the neckline. This will signal lower BTC.D and it will look good for most altcoins.
The bearish case for altcoins: if BTC.D gets a SOLID close above the 200MA, which may a signal for lower price action for most altcoins.
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*Let me know in the comment section if you agree or disagree, would love to hear your ideas too.
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The US Dollar and Cryptocurrency Market Cycles ExplainedIn this post, I’ll be providing an in depth explanation of the (inverse) correlations of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Dominance, and the US Dollar Index. This will help traders understand the general trends of each assets and indices, as well as what to look for the next measured move.
I have divided the chart by the 1-2 months, in order to demonstrate clear movements and trends. Ethereum was chosen to represent the entire alt coin market, as it has acted as the leading altcoin for the recent bullish rally.
Bitcoin (BTC) is marked by the orange graph, Ethereum (ETH) by the grey graph, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) by the prurple graph, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) by the green graph.
March – April 2020
- To begin with, starting in March, up to the end of April, we can see clear trends for all assets and indices.
- Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index show a clear inverse correlation, as Bitcoin corrects heavily while DXY experiences a breakout.
- However, after Bitcoin’s price recovers, their inverse correlation is not demonstrated too clearly
- From March to the beginning of April, Bitcoin’s price rises more rapidly than that of Ethereum.
- This leads to the Bitcoin dominance showing a sharp rise.
- However, afterwards, ETH demonstrates a similar degree of uptrend – a correlated move with Bitcoin – and this leads the Bitcoin dominance to cool down.
April – June 2020
- From the end of April, ETH’s price starts correcting while Bitcoin’s price rises at a very rapid pace
- This leads to another breakout in Bitcoin dominance, signifying that capital is flowing from altcoin markets to Bitcoin.
- Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index demonstrates a rather correlated move with Bitcoin until the Beginning of June.
- As the DXY drops harder, both Bitcoin and Ethereum’s price rises rapidly.
- As such, Bitcoin Dominance drops down.
June – July 2020
- During this period, there was minimal volume and movement in Bitcoin and altcoins.
- As a result, Bitcoin dominance also ranged sideways for a while
- Around mid-July, however, Ethereum broke out slightly, marking the beginning of breakouts for other altcoins as well, while Bitcoin continued to consolidate
- As a result, Bitcoin dominance fell significantly
- An interesting thing to note is how the DXY starts showing a clearer correlation with Bitcoin Dominance once again
July – September 2020
- During this time, we can see a clear correlation between Bitcoin and altcoins, specifically Ethereum, and their inverse correlation with Bitcoin Dominance and the US Dollar Index
- Notice that there is a spike on the Bitcoin dominance graph, while the overall trend suggests a downtrend
- This is because Bitcoin breaks out first, providing confirmation of a bullish market
- As capital flows in to the cryptocurrency market, people also seek opportunities to invest in altcoins, which are much more volatile, yet potentially more profitable
- The US Dollar index demonstrates a very clear inverse correlation with Bitcoin’s price.
September 2020
- We saw a correction in the cryptocurrency market in the beginning of September
- Following the previous context, the drop we see for Bitcoin not only happens ahead of Ethereum, but also to a lesser degree.
- Ethereum follows Bitcoin’s move in a lag, and as it’s an altcoin, it demonstrates more volatility
- Reflecting this move in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin dominance breaks out once again
- Being more volatile, Ethereum’s dead cat bounce is stronger than that of Bitcoin, showing a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance around mid-September
- The US Dollar Index shows some recovery in its trend along with Bitcoin Dominance.
- This means that with the recovery of the DXY, people are reluctant to hold altcoins that are highly risky and volatile
October 2020
- We are now seeing movement for these four graphs in October.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum demonstrate a strong bullish uptrend, while Bitcoin Dominance and the US Dollar Index continue to fall
- This indicates that people are more willing to invest heavily into the cryptocurrency market, in both Bitcoin and altcoins.
Summary
When the US Dollar Index (DXY) drops, people look to invest their capital. The Dollar Index is greatly affected by macroeconomic factors. Considering that the Federal Bank is pumping out money supply at an unprecedented rate, it’s not surprising to see the US Dollar Index drop so drastically over time. The increase in money supply essentially means that the money you hold will lose its value if it’s not invested.
As such, we can clearly see that investors look to take part in the cryptocurrency market, which is clearly demonstrated through the DXY’s inverse correlation with Bitcoin. People are more willing to invest in Bitcoin, the harder the value of the US Dollar falls. When Bitcoin provides bullish confirmation through breakouts and high trading volume, investors gain more confidence in the market, and capital flows into the altcoin markets.
This study on the (inversely) correlated trends in the cryptocurrency market demonstrate that investors identify altcoins as a high-risk high-return market, while they view Bitcoin as a digital store of value.
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Bitcoin Dominance BTC.D - Bearish Head and Shoulders This is extremely bad for altcoins, this Head and Shoulders pattern is powerful. Also, the major trendline to the downside is broken. Big move is coming and it will be nasty. You can short altcoins on Binance Futures / Bitmex or move your Crypto to USDT temporarily - only for traders. The monthly chart is still bullish for altcoins.
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