Bitcoindominance
Last correction before take-offWe have two pattern that confirms that bearish breakout is just round the corner.
I think we will see a correction down to around 60-55% market dominance.
In 1-3 month we could see a bullish cross between MA200 and MA100.
+ Volume is significant higher then before (new money flows in to crypto space)
+ Time left to halving 175 days (25 weeks)
+ MA200 is flattening, moving towards bullish cross
In my opinion, we are still in accumulation phase and the start of the next phase (advancing) will start for real after halving.
With this significant higher volumes in accumulation phase, demand for BTC will be like never before after halving.
I believe the dominance can reach up to 85%-90%, and people holding Bitcoin will not be so interested of selling it in near future after halving.
The advancing phase I believe will attract further new money into crypto space and fuel the price to new all time highs.
Short term, 1-3 months: Bearish
Long term, 2-12 months: Bullish
Dominance : Elliot wave perspective and road map to 50%Hello Fellas, Happy Monday and I hope that this week could be the a better week for another trading journal for all of you. Current bitcoin movement is still in play with my previous analysis and perspective, beside bitcoin is still moving in the consolidation area whether it is on short term or long term perspective. That's why a few days ahead i will be more concern with the dominance and market capitalization of this crypto industry. I will frequently give you an update about this highlighted factor that keep the crypto space on its balance. Here we start the analysis!
So, on this chart, I try to make a long term projection for the bitcoin dominance possible movement in the future. Remember that you don't have to be worry even if the bitcoin dominance will melt however to lower level or bitcoin itself which will decrease value a lot lower than current level. The decreasing of bitcoin dominance will become another stepping stone of bitcoin's future. The decreasing in bitcoin dominance will make the crypto space more healthier and the money inflow in this industry will spread out evenly between 1 coin to another. This thing especially will indicate a decrease of manipulative number, even for the institutional level, it will be harder to manipulate the price of crypto. More evenly the fund distributed, more healthier this market will be.
I see that the current movement of bitcoin'd dominance will melt however to lower level. I see a losing momentum as well on current level of dominance. Based on the technical analysis, it looks like the previously bullish falling wedges could be the first leading diagonal on higher structure. I expect an ABC zig za corrective wave to the down side and I expect the dominance will stay at around 50% level. It has a lot of reason for the dominance to be at those level.
Thank you and enjoy your Monday.
The Insider and systematic dumpHello fellas, here is my opinion about bitcoin based on the dominance side of the crypto market. I hope you enjoy this technical analysis!
The daily chart for Bitcoin dominance shows that Bitcoin is fighting hard to retain its dominance of the cryptocurrency market. Recently, Bitcoin dominance broke out of a falling wedge and found temporary support on the 50% fib retracement level. However, I believe that this level won't hold from further decline. traders need to be very careful here as this is not the time to be bullish.
It is premature to say that this move to the upside has come to an end. We are certain that a decline is going to follow sooner or later but short term further manipulation could be around the corner. We recently saw Bitcoin pump by more than 43% in two days. There have been times when we have seen similar pumps in the altcoin market follow soon after. I wouldn’t discount the possibility that this could be one of those times which is why it is not a good idea to be short on the altcoin market just yet. However, despite what happens short term, Bitcoin is ready to decline below $8,000 and it could happen in a matter of days.
The cryptocurrency market is in trouble and insiders have known this for a long time. They have been dumping systemically but as more and more retail investors begin to catch up with what is really happening, they are now in a rush to get out of their positions. This is why we have seen such naked manipulation in the past few days that shook out most of the retail bears and got the bulls really excited. The bulls are still quite excited and expecting further. The Fear and Greed Index is still in the neutral zone but traders could soon get even more optimistic with another fake out. In my opinion, it is very likely that we might see another fake out near term
Bitcoin Dominance Update - Altcoin Season ComingAn update from my last Bitcoin dominance idea, where I called out the dominance would top out in September then start to gradually fall before alt season.
I say this with confidence, I don't see bitcoin going any higher than 74% dominance. In September it topped a little over 73% and has failed over and over again to break that.
A lot of people are calling 90% dominance, and I just gotta say you're delusional. The daily hold at 69.92% was the absolute top before the 2017 'Altcoin season'.
For those of you that look at other charts besides Bitcoin , this chart looks exactly like the DOW and the S&P , both failing to trend higher and are at a calm before they hit the fan. Just look at the chart, it could barely hold its own above the daily, and now it broke it's longterm uptrend stending from the beginning of this dominance bull market.
My prediction is the Dominance will continue to struggle to hold this level, and even test the bottom of the uptrend before it really starts to fall.
From there, it history will repeat and there will be another altcoin season. Taking a look at all of the altcoins, they have all slowly and steadily gained satoshi value against the bitcoin in the recent month. This will continue happening and we will be in altcoin season before we know it.
I'm not saying Bitcoin is going to tank in price, to be honest this month I believe price will do exceptionally well, but the altcoins will outperform it. Q4 has historically been very good to Bitcoin .
NEW Trading Group: t.me
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As always do your own research, I am not a financial advisor.
Altcoin Dominance Bouncing From 0.382 Fib Retracement Bouncing from 0.382 fib retracement, altcoin dominance has broken above the 200 Week MA (29.65%), RSI now left oversold conditions and MACD about to bull cross. "ALT.D" (1-BTC.D+99) needs to close the weekly above the 200 MA to remain bullish, but otherwise the risk/reward is there for a trade to the 0.5 fib retracement (49.95%) and resistance level. This would be a trade on the monthly scale on the left with the price bouncing back from the 20 MA to the 50 Month MA.
Related altcoin dominance/market analysis...
Altcoin Dominance Retesting 200 Week MA. Bounce to 40% Incoming?
Altcoins Bouncing From 200 Week MA after TD Sequential 9
Bitcoin vs AltcoinsHello, Traders!
Monfex is at your service and today we overview Bitcoin Dominance .
The domination is near the strong resistance line and MA100 and most likely this week we will see a rebound down to the zone of intersection the middle line of the large ascending channel with the bottom line of the falling wedge from which this percents can go up.
Summarize :
first target ~ 68 %
after this it can rise up to 70 %
Altcoins looks better in a short-term position
Market Cap
$222 510 336 037
Volume (24h)
$55 096 410 013
Share your thoughts, ideas about the market under the chart.
Watch for our Updates to be the first who gets well-timed signals !
GOOD LUCK AND LOTS OF PROFITS !!
Disclaimer
This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any trading assets. Monfex accepts no responsibility for any consequences resulting from the use of this material. Any person acting on this trade idea does so entirely at their own risk.
BTC dominance is expecting to be dropped, a chance for altcoins?BTC dominance (BTC.D) is expecting to be dropped, a chance for altcoins?
Bearish signs for BTC.D as shown in the daily chart:
- BTC.D violented key support at around 69%, as mentioned in the previous analysis.
- BTC.D can't break the downtrend resistance, established since the earlier of September 2019.
- At the time, TRIX fails to break its downtrend resistance and being in the bearish area since mid-September.
- MA20 is pointing down with a high angle.
BTC.D will have a small rising to test MA20 (which is a higher edge of the falling wedge pattern), then slowly drops to the Fibonacci retracement 50% (65.8%).
BTC.D dropping is evident tells that the capital is flowing from BTC to altcoins. This, overall, is a good sign of the altcoin market.
The altcoin blooming season is still far away, but altcoins will have good recovery in the next days.
A possible scenario of the crypto market in the next days:
- BTC will have a drop, relatively, BTC.D will have a small rising.
- BTC finds strong support (might be around $6600), then enters the consolidation phase.
- Top altcoins (ie. ETH, XRP, LTC, BNB, etc) will fly when BTC gets stable. Then the next coins have lower market caps will follow the top.
The Market Cap BTC Dominance has hit the strong resistanceThe Market Cap BTC Dominance has hit the resistance at 72.83 which is not broken since July 2017 and likely to fail in breaking out.
Volume profile since july 2017 upto now is showing less interest of traders at resistance level.
The RSI is overbought.
Stochastic has given bear cross from overbought zone.
MACD turned strong bearish.
Lagging span of ichimoku cloud is also moving down and we have a cloud support almost at 61.35.
And we have a strong price level support at 53.17 which is not broken since Sep 2018.
Volume profile since july 2017 upto now is showing less interest of traders below this support level.
If the price action may fails to breakdown the cloud support then we might have a sideways trend and during this we may enjoy the altcoins season but the real altcoin season depends on breaking down this ichimoku bullish could support and then 53.17 level support.
So Now the fear factor in trading altcoins should be decreased if you are trading altcoins with right strategy then Bitcoin cannot ruin your party it does't matter BTC price moves up or down unless the BTC.D does not take bounce form the support or the indicators again turn bullish.
This is the right time to trade the alts without fear.
Regards,
Atif Akbar (moon333)
Bitcoin vs AltcoinsHello, Traders!
Monfex is at your service and today we overview Bitcoin Dominance.
Bitcoin's dominance has grown slightly over the past couple of days by bullish div on RSI, but we see that Altcoins on its support levels and on the domination chart BTC has come close to the resistance:
the resistance line of the descending channel
MA100
the ex-support line
Wait for a bounce down to the support line. It's also will be Wave C of Elliott Correction Waves (ABC).
Share your thoughts, ideas about the market under the chart.
Watch for our Updates to be the first who gets well-timed signals !
GOOD LUCK AND LOTS OF PROFITS !!
Disclaimer
This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any trading assets. Monfex accepts no responsibility for any consequences resulting from the use of this material. Any person acting on this trade idea does so entirely at their own risk.
A Strategy Guide For Trading Altcoins With Bitcoin DominanceOne of the most common questions I get when it comes to altcoins is, "should I trade or should i just buy and hold?"
For most people, buying and holding (or hodling) is often times the best answer.
It's less time intensive and you don't have to think about it too much.
The problem (and often asked question) is, "when should I start buying?"
For that, I would highly recommend familiarizing yourself with the dominance charts on Trading View and the cyclical nature of alts vs bitcoin.
To find the Bitcoin dominance chart (which is what we are using right now), just type in BTC.D in your tradingview indicator at the top.
What is Bitcoin dominance?
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin to the rest of the cryptocurrency markets.
A KEY FACT:
Just because Bitcoin dominance goes UP doesn't mean that Bitcoin price is also going up. It means that it's market share is going up relative to the rest of the market.
In 2018, we saw a flight of capital from small cap and mid cap altcoins into Bitcoin where dominance went up, but Bitcoin's price continued to go down and even capitulated towards the $3200 level.
What the dominance actually represents is the relative value of alts VS Bitcoin. (i.e. XXXBTC pairs for altcoins.)
So when dominance is falling, that means that the altcoin pairs (typically majors and mid caps) are gaining value relative to the BTC pair.
Vice versa, when dominance is going up, altcoins (typically majors) are losing value relative to bitcoin value.
This is where it gets tricky trading altcoins or being a hodler in general.
Sometiems, you can gain BTC value but lose USD value if Bitcoin falls faster than your altcoin gains value relative to bitcoin.
If, say you want to go long on XRPBTC (to gain bitcoin), we can see that we saw a very good opportunity last week when I sent the XRPBTC chart.
Even easier to see on the 4 hour time frame here:
To update:
Okay, so we got our pull back to the 2750 level and took a long on it.
Our current trade is in profit for 24% in Bitcoin value. This means that if we had put 1 BTC into the trade, we would now be at 1.24 BTC in total value for XRP.
Awesome!
Now, let's check out the XRPUSD chart to see how we are doing in USD value.
Because we bought the BTC pair, we bought the XRP pair around $.236
The value is now at $.285 and we are now up 20% in USD value.
If you had put in $10,000, you'd now be up $2,000 for a total of $12,200. - A 20% gain so far.
As you can see, there is over a 4% difference in Bitcoin value and USD value relative to the gains.
This is much more exaggerated during Bitcoin volatility, which means we need to be especially careful buying a bullish altcoin set-up when Bitcoin is at high time frame resistance.
Comparing price and dominance side by side, you can see the point that 'dominance' doesn't equal bullishness even better.
Bitcoin dominance went up over 100% from Jan 1 2018 until Oct 2019.
In the same time span, bitcoin price dropped 80% and also went up 330% from the bottom.
These 3 charts give you a little better perspective on the higher time frames.
On Jan 1, we saw the bottom of altcoin dominance and a confirmed bullish bounce.
Bitcoin went down 80% in USD but rose by 330% off of its bottom while dominance continued to climb.
Ripple (XRP), on the other hand declined by 94% in USD value and 78% in Bitcoin value and is only up 40% in BTC value from the lows and is up this month about 20% from the lows.
The only period of time that was a good time to hold Ripple was actually where went down and was flat in September of 2018 where Ripple went up 160% in USD value.
If you buy an altcoin and the dominance level stays the same, meaning the Bitcoin value relative to the altcoin stays the same, then you will 'maintain' your bitcoin value and lose USD value for the trade.
Some people ONLY care about 'stacking sats' no matter what the price of Bitcoin is at. This is because they believe in the long term viability of Bitcoin and think that the price will appreciate no matter what.
If you want to 'hodl' an altcoin for long term, it is always better to buy or scale into altcoins when dominance is at high levels at key resistances and showing confirmed signs of weakness than it is to buy at the bottom of dominance levels.
This is because you will be subject to massive draw downs in relative bitcoin value, whereas your USD value may hold well.
A real life example using XRP
You take $32,000 in cash and buy Bitcoin on Dec. 10th, 2018 when Bitcoin was at $3,200.
You now have 10 Bitcoin.
You then take the Bitcoin and buy XRP.
XRP USD value iwas at $.29.
XRPBTC value was at 0.00008700
You now have 114,000 XRP.
To date, your total bitcoin value would be at 4 Bitcoin worth of XRP.
Your total USD value would be roughtly $31,500.
This is the true cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency markets.
If you are looking for exposure to a specific 'class' of altcoins, you can also trade indexes.
On some exchanges, they have mid cap and small cap altcoin indexes that you can get exposure to without having to buy individual altcoins themselves.
You can also use a 'futures' contract to 'hedge' a portfolio of altcoins if you are a hodler.
There are lot of nuances and strategies that you can use when it comes to trading cryptocurrencies, but hopefully this guide gave you a good idea of when to long altcoins and when to short altcoins based on the dominance of Bitcoin in the market.
Hopefully this helped you get a better idea of when to short and long altcoins.
If you enjoyed the read, please consider giving a +1 to the chart and sharing it with your friends.
Thanks for reading!
$btc dominance FAST Collapse #Alt SeasonLately we have seen $alts holding value in USD, Dropping at a lower rate than $btc or in some cases such as $link this weekend even go up in value when $btc dropped. Should we take that as a sign of them bottoming it out? #alt season is a Lot closer than many traders anticipates. The chart shows us how Fast can $btc dominance collapse in a very short time period. I think an $AltSeason is right around the corner , i m thinking Q4 of 2019 or Q1 2020. Im my modest opinion: $btc dominance is gonna test 70% one more time, its gonna fail it, then collapse, firing it up an #altseason. I would like you guys to share your opinion in the comments
Rough Chart Up of where i think BCT.D might go in coming monthsAttempted to spot something like supply/demandzones for the BTC.D Chart
There does appear to be some sort of correlation in the trend
Same gradient lines match points all over the chart in new range 90%-45%ish
apex points from various significant(?) trend lines match significant moves or turning points in dominance
Sitting in low 70%s old sup/dem(?) zone just dropping below in last week or so
appears to be something of a bearish divergence (bullish for alts) if divergence can play in a dominance chart
Looks to me like real fun (altszn) teeing up for feburary 2020 with slow rise Q42019