Understanding Bitcoin ETFs: What They Are and Why They Matter?1. What is a Bitcoin ETF?
A Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is a financial instrument that tracks the value of Bitcoin and allows investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without directly owning it. Bitcoin ETFs operate similarly to traditional ETFs, which track the value of assets like stocks, commodities, or indices. Managed by financial institutions, Bitcoin ETFs are available on traditional stock exchanges, making it easier for investors to participate in Bitcoin’s price movements through regular brokerage accounts.
There are two main types of Bitcoin ETFs:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Track the current market price of Bitcoin, directly reflecting its value.
Futures-based Bitcoin ETFs: Track the value of Bitcoin futures contracts, which are agreements to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future.
In the U.S., Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved and launched on major exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), while spot Bitcoin ETFs are still under regulatory review by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
2. How Does a Bitcoin ETF Differ from Buying Bitcoin Directly?
While both Bitcoin ETFs and direct Bitcoin purchases provide exposure to Bitcoin’s value, they differ in several key ways:
Ownership and Custody
Bitcoin ETFs: Investors own shares in the ETF, but not the actual Bitcoin itself. The ETF provider holds the underlying Bitcoin or Bitcoin futures contracts, taking on the responsibility of secure custody.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Investors who buy Bitcoin directly through cryptocurrency exchanges or wallets own the Bitcoin and have full control over it, including the responsibility for secure storage.
Access and Regulatory Oversight
Bitcoin ETFs: Are traded on traditional stock exchanges and are regulated by financial authorities. This oversight ensures investor protections that are not typically present in cryptocurrency markets.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Involves buying from cryptocurrency exchanges, many of which are less regulated and may lack certain protections offered by traditional financial products.
Trading Hours
Bitcoin ETFs: Trade during standard market hours, typically from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM EST. Investors can buy or sell shares only within these hours.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Bitcoin can be traded 24/7, giving investors the flexibility to enter or exit positions at any time.
Taxation and Fees
Bitcoin ETFs: Investors are subject to capital gains taxes and may also incur management fees for ETF administration.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Direct Bitcoin investors are also subject to capital gains taxes. However, they may face lower or no management fees, depending on how they store their Bitcoin.
Use of Leverage and Derivatives
Bitcoin Futures ETFs: These funds allow investors to speculate on Bitcoin’s future price movements without holding actual Bitcoin. However, futures-based ETFs can be more complex, as they rely on futures contracts rather than spot prices, which can introduce tracking errors.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Investors buy Bitcoin directly, holding actual units of the asset without derivatives or leverage, providing a more straightforward exposure to its current market price.
3. Why is a Bitcoin ETF Important for the Cryptocurrency Market?
The approval of a Bitcoin ETF is a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency market for several reasons:
1. Broader Accessibility
Traditional Investors: A Bitcoin ETF opens the door to traditional investors, especially those who may not be comfortable using cryptocurrency exchanges. Investors can access Bitcoin exposure through familiar brokerage accounts without needing to learn about wallets or private keys.
Institutional Interest: A Bitcoin ETF creates an easier path for institutional investors to participate in the Bitcoin market, bringing in large amounts of capital. As institutions enter the market, Bitcoin's market liquidity and price stability may improve.
2. Increased Legitimacy
The introduction of a Bitcoin ETF legitimizes Bitcoin as an asset class in the eyes of regulators, investors, and financial institutions. It signals recognition from regulatory bodies and increases trust in Bitcoin among mainstream investors.
3. Boost to Market Liquidity
Bitcoin ETFs can increase liquidity in the market, as they provide a regulated and accessible means for both retail and institutional investors to gain Bitcoin exposure. Greater liquidity can reduce volatility, making the market more stable over time.
4. Potential for Price Appreciation
With increased demand and accessibility, a Bitcoin ETF could lead to upward price pressure on Bitcoin. This is especially relevant for spot ETFs, which would require the fund to hold actual Bitcoin, thus increasing demand for the underlying asset.
5. Step Toward Broader Cryptocurrency ETF Adoption
Approval of a Bitcoin ETF could pave the way for ETFs focused on other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Solana, expanding the options for crypto exposure within traditional markets. This could accelerate the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector.
4. Pros and Cons of Bitcoin ETFs
While Bitcoin ETFs offer numerous benefits, they also come with certain drawbacks.
Advantages of Bitcoin ETFs
Ease of Access: ETFs are easily accessible through traditional brokerage accounts, removing the need for new accounts on cryptocurrency exchanges.
Regulatory Protections: ETFs are regulated by financial authorities, providing investors with protections that may be absent on cryptocurrency exchanges.
Enhanced Liquidity: Increased market liquidity through ETF participation can reduce volatility and provide a more stable trading environment for Bitcoin.
Professional Custody: ETF providers manage Bitcoin custody and security, making it easier for investors who do not want to worry about wallet security or private key management.
Diversification Opportunities: Bitcoin ETFs can be included in retirement accounts or blended into traditional investment portfolios, broadening their appeal as a tool for diversification.
Disadvantages of Bitcoin ETFs
Limited Trading Hours: ETFs can only be traded during standard market hours, unlike Bitcoin, which is available 24/7 on cryptocurrency exchanges.
Management Fees: Most Bitcoin ETFs come with annual management fees, which can reduce overall returns for investors.
Potential for Tracking Errors: In futures-based ETFs, tracking errors may occur, meaning the ETF's performance may not accurately match Bitcoin’s actual price movements.
No Direct Ownership of Bitcoin: ETF investors do not own Bitcoin itself, which means they miss out on the ability to use or transfer the asset directly.
Market Dependency on Regulators: The introduction and ongoing success of Bitcoin ETFs depend on regulators’ willingness to approve and support crypto-based financial products, which may limit the ETF market’s expansion.
5. Outlook and Future of Bitcoin ETFs
The potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. could be a game-changer. With increased institutional and retail access, the Bitcoin ETF market could drive greater adoption and legitimacy for cryptocurrencies overall. However, regulatory challenges remain, as the SEC has thus far resisted approving spot Bitcoin ETFs due to concerns about market manipulation and lack of robust investor protections.
As regulatory clarity improves, we may see a broader array of crypto-based ETFs emerge, possibly including multi-asset ETFs that combine Bitcoin with other cryptocurrencies or assets, such as stocks or commodities. Furthermore, as institutional adoption grows, the role of ETFs in the financial ecosystem could increase, potentially influencing Bitcoin’s price dynamics and volatility as well.
Conclusion
Bitcoin ETFs represent a bridge between the traditional financial world and the emerging cryptocurrency market. While they offer unique advantages, such as regulatory protections and ease of access, they also come with limitations like management fees, limited trading hours, and the lack of direct ownership. For those who want exposure to Bitcoin within the security of a regulated investment product, Bitcoin ETFs provide a promising option.
The success and potential of Bitcoin ETFs lie in their ability to draw both individual and institutional investors into the cryptocurrency market, making it a potentially transformative development for the financial world. As more countries consider ETF approval, and as the cryptocurrency industry matures, Bitcoin ETFs could play a pivotal role in the mainstream adoption and integration of digital assets.
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Bitcoinetf
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Reverse Inflow StreakMarket Update - October 25, 2024
US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $79 million in net outflows Tuesday, reversing a seven-day inflow streak that had brought in over $2.6 billion: The outflows came mainly from Ark and 21Shares' ARKB fund.
Bitcoin prices inched closer to $70,000 at the start of the week when futures open interest surged to over $40 billion: But prices subsequently pulled back mid-week as investors pared their gains.
Tether’s USDT has hit a record $120 billion market cap, which could set the stage for a bullish October finish in the crypto market: Historical trends suggest that a rise in stablecoin supply can precede rallies in bitcoin and ethereum.
Bitcoin's hashrate has reached a new peak of 703 EH/s, a 6% gain over the past week: This surge coincides with higher mining profitability as transaction fees rise and Bitcoin's price strengthens.
Binance exec leaves prison: Binance’s Tigran Gambaryan was released from Nigerian prison Wednesday so he can receive medical treatment for the numerous ailments he suffered while in captivity.
US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record $79 Million in Outflows, Ending Seven-Day Inflow Streak
After a week-long run of positive net inflows, US spot bitcoin ETFs reported a shift back to the negative on Tuesday, with net outflows totaling $79.09 million. It was ARKB fund from Ark and 21Shares was responsible for the entirety of these outflows, losing nearly $135 million. Despite the overall outflows, some funds still recorded gains. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest spot bitcoin ETF by net assets, attracted just under $43 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC saw $8.85 million in inflows.
The recent outflows bring the cumulative net inflows for the 12 spot bitcoin ETFs down to $21.15 billion as of Tuesday. Trading activity also slowed, with the total daily volume for these ETFs declining to $1.4 billion from $1.76 billion the day before. This reversal comes after the ETFs saw more than $2.67 billion in net inflows over the past seven trading days, a figure similar to their peak inflow levels recorded in March this year.
Spot ether ETFs saw more positive activity, with net inflows of $11.94 million on Tuesday – all from BlackRock’s ETHA. Other ether ETFs recorded no change. Trading volume for ether ETFs also noticeably dropped to roughly $118 million on Tuesday, down from around $163 million the previous day.
🕸️ Topic of the Week: Web 3.0: The Next Evolution of the Internet
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Phemex Analysis #28: Institutional Inflows Fuel BTC Rally!The recent surge in Bitcoin price, reaching a recent high of $68,400, has been largely fueled by significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. In just three days, these ETFs have accumulated over $1 billion, led by industry giants BlackRock and Fidelity. The accumulation of institutional capital often serves as a strong bullish indicator, suggesting a growing confidence in Bitcoin as a viable asset class.
Possible Scenarios in the Next Few Days
Given the substantial inflow into Bitcoin ETFs and the subsequent price increase, several potential scenarios may unfold in the coming days:
1. Continued Upward Momentum: If institutional investors maintain their bullish sentiment and continue to allocate more capital to Bitcoin ETFs, the price could experience further upward pressure. This scenario would likely be supported by positive market sentiment and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
2. Consolidation and Pullback: After a significant price surge, it's not uncommon for markets to experience a period of consolidation or even a minor pullback. This could be driven by profit-taking activities or concerns about potential overvaluation. However, as long as the overall trend remains bullish, a pullback could present a buying opportunity for investors.
3. Increased Volatility: The influx of institutional capital can sometimes lead to increased market volatility. As more participants enter the market, the potential for rapid price movements increases. Traders should be prepared to manage their risk accordingly.
Potential Trading Strategy
Based on the current market dynamics, here are some potential trading strategies:
I. Buy and Hold: For long-term investors who believe in the long-term potential of Bitcoin, a buy-and-hold strategy may be suitable. This involves purchasing Bitcoin and holding it for an extended period, regardless of short-term price fluctuations.
II. Scalping: Short-term traders who aim to profit from small price movements can employ a scalping strategy. This involves entering and exiting trades quickly to capture short-term gains. However, scalping requires a high level of technical analysis and risk management skills.
III. Swing Trading: Swing traders focus on capturing medium-term price swings. They identify potential support and resistance levels to enter and exit trades. Swing trading requires a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.
Conclusion
The recent surge in Bitcoin price, driven by significant inflows into ETFs, is a positive sign for the cryptocurrency market. However, it's important to approach the market with caution and be aware of the potential risks involved. By carefully considering the possible scenarios, developing a sound trading strategy, and managing risk effectively, investors can capitalize on the opportunities presented by the current market conditions.
Tips:
Trade Smarter, Not Harder with Phemex. Benefit from cutting-edge features like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time strategy adjustments. Our unique scaled order system and iceberg order functionality give you a competitive edge.
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
Exploring Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF @BTFExploring the Valkyrie Bitcoin and Ethereum Strategy ETF. Bitcoin ( NASDAQ:BTF ).. strong monthly imbalance in control playing our with BTC cryptocurrency currently attempting to break its all-time high again, with a monthly demand level also in control. Long term investment opportunity. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are trending upwards and have a significant monthly demand level in control, contributing to the rise of these cryptocurrencies and the
BlackRock: Poised for a Bullish Breakout?
**Current Price Range**: $846 to $822 (Weekly Frame)
**Potential for Bullish Reversal**:
BlackRock, trending between $846 and $822, shows signs of a potential bullish reversal. A strong resistance at $895.20 is key. Breaking and closing above this level on the weekly timeframe could indicate a reversal and the continuation of a bullish trend.
**Double Top Formation and Historical Context**:
The double top pattern from November 15, 2021 , initially suggested bearish momentum due to overvaluation and economic concerns. However, BlackRock's strategic growth initiatives, including climate transition ETFs, acquisitions, and private market expansions, offer strong bullish prospects.
**Probability Indicator**:
Our probability indicator, currently above the middle threshold, hints at a shift towards bullish momentum.
**Key Levels to Watch**:
- **Resistance Level** : $895.20
- A break above this level may signal a bullish continuation.
- **Support Level** : $726.37
- A hold above this zone could further support the bullish outlook.
**Market Factors**:
**Strategic Growth** : BlackRock's innovative initiatives and acquisitions position it well for future growth.
**Resilience Amid Challenges**: Despite facing outflows and ESG-related backlash, BlackRock remains robust.
**Leadership and Vision**: CEO Larry Fink's strategic direction emphasizes long-term growth and adaptation to market changes.
**Expected All-Time High**:
BlackRock is expected to reach its all-time high by end-March 2025, supported by its strategic initiatives and resilience in the market.
**Conclusion**:
BlackRock is on the verge of a potential bullish breakout. Monitoring the $ 895.20 resistance level is crucial for confirmation. The company's strategic initiatives and resilience indicate a strong potential for a bullish trend continuation, possibly mirroring the market recovery patterns seen after the 2008 financial crisis.
COINBASE #COIN priced in #Bitcoin 3X outperfromanceShould u just buy Coinbase stock rather than the go through the hassle of Buying , storing, off-ramping profits back to your bank.
It is far easier for big money who want some crypto exposure to just buy crypto stocks.
All in their familiar regulated platform, hence why the Spot ETF is so important...
But who are the custodians Blackrock is entrusting to hold their #BTC..... Coinbase
This will be a big money maker for Coinbase and hence why it could actually overperform and get back to all time high's in the next two years.
A Bitcoin Compression patternBitcoin appears to be compressing near all-time highs in what looks like an ascending triangle. Previously, Bitcoin would pierce the ascending triangle to the downside and the result would be the liquidation of all of the leverage in the system, then the price of Bitcoin would proceed to chop around more before eventually moving higher. Essentially, the ascending triangle pattern would be extended by double the amount of time, give or take. I have found this example in many uptrends in crypto and specifically in Bitcoin.
While this scenario could certainly play out again, I lean more toward a sooner breakout before this type of scenario happens. Why? Quite simply - ETFs and big money have entered the market. A lot of these players are accumulating bitcoin for the long term in spot. The brokers will have a new fear to face besides waiting to liquidate people, what if they can't? It will force them to cover and the price could start driving higher sooner. This fact alone could lead Bitcoin to not follow its "usual" path of a breakdown first and an extension of its compression pattern and instead break to the upside and continue its journey further north.
For now, we wait and see what happens.
Cheers,
TCD
SEC Approves first Spot ETH ETFs
SEC approves spot ETH ETFs: After months of speculation, the SEC formally approved the first spot ether ETFs on Thursday. The development sets the stage for institutional investors to pour billions into the space.
Grayscale CEO departs: Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein announced Monday he was leaving his role after three years running the crypto investment giant. A Goldman Sachs veteran is expected to take his place in August.
White House opposes crypto legislation: The White House announced Wednesday its opposition to FIT21, a bill that would give the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) power to regulate the crypto market. But the White House doesn't plan to veto.
Gala Games experiences a major issue: It led to the minting of 5 billion tokens worth $206M and caused a nearly 15% drop in the GALA token price.
Major banks reveal significant Bitcoin Trust Holdings in Q1: Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and UBS have shown a growing interest in digital assets within wealth management.
Venezuelan government will disconnect crypto mining farms from the national grid: They made the move to stabilize the electrical supply after enduring routine blackouts for the past five years.
🧑💻 Topic of the Week: What is a Crypto Exchange
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Asset Managers are looking at IBIT - Bitcoin thoughts - May 2024Sentiment seems to be that the cycle top is in. I disagree. The bitcoin ETFs are now opening up Bitcoin exposure to hedge funds and asset managers managing trillions of dollars, You have to ask yourself at this point, what is the likely hood that bitcoin has topped before the halving and now ETFs have opened the flood gates. I think very unlikely the bull market ends here.
NASDAQ:IBIT
Market Update - 7/5/24Crypto markets have so far shown resilience after what has been an eventful week to-date. On the 1st of May we witnessed Bitcoin trade below both the March and April lows, where we then saw four consecutive days of buying resulting in a 14% rally back to $64,500 USD.
👉The next few days will be key in understanding if the bulls will continue to show up, we provide some bullish and bearish scenarios to start the week below.
There is little on the economic calendar this week, however we did see a very interesting print at the end of last week for the US labour market.
Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 71.
US Unemployment Rate Ticks Higher
Last week, the US unemployment rate slightly missed expectations, coming in at 3.9% instead of the anticipated 3.8%.
It's important to understand why this matters. An increase in unemployment could hint at a broader economic slowdown. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve has previously mentioned that a weakening labour market might precipitate a change to interest rates and an overall easing of conditions from the current regime.
Bullish Scenario
Early this week, should the bulls hold their ground at the current ranges, we could see a push to the range midpoint of $66,000 USD.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to see the bulls hold the market here could then see prices retesting the bottom of this channel, which was reclaimed at the start of this month. This may result in Bitcoin moving back towards $61,000 USD.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Surge – A Bullish Signal for Market Adoption?Welcome to a pivotal moment in the Bitcoin market! As we witness the launch of several spot Bitcoin ETFs, including giants like Fidelity's FBTC, Bitwise's BITB, and Franklin Templeton's EZBC, the landscape of cryptocurrency investing is evolving before our eyes.
First-day volumes paint a promising picture, with funds that 'Buy Bitcoin' directly, such as FBTC (Fidelity), BITB (Bitwise), and EZBC (Franklin Templeton), accounting for a significant 14.06% of the total volume. This direct investment approach is injecting fresh capital into the spot Bitcoin market, hinting at a bullish outlook for Bitcoin adoption and price movement.
Let's not overlook the powerhouses that follow Bitcoin's price through derivatives, such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) and Grayscale's GBTC, which command an impressive 85.94% of the total volume. While they may not directly purchase Bitcoin, their market presence can't be ignored, as they reflect growing investor interest and add to the overall Bitcoin market depth.
With the potential move to a T+1 settlement cycle, the market could see increased efficiency and a more immediate impact from ETF inflows. This could be particularly beneficial for ETFs purchasing Bitcoin, as it allows for quicker capital deployment, enhancing the responsiveness of the market to new investments.
But let's temper our optimism with a dose of reality. It's crucial to remember that not all ETFs are created equal – some provide direct exposure to Bitcoin's price movements, while others offer a more nuanced approach through futures and other financial instruments. The true impact of these funds will unfold with time, as we closely monitor their influence on market demand and price dynamics.
In essence, the influx of new Bitcoin ETFs could be a harbinger of increased adoption and integration of Bitcoin into the mainstream financial world. This is a bullish sign for those of us optimistic about the future of digital assets.
Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate this exciting phase of market growth. And remember, despite the complexities, the introduction of these ETFs is a step toward broader acceptance and a testament to Bitcoin's enduring allure.
So..still very Bullish news... still very Good news!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
BTC's Path to $79,500 Post-Halving🚀 Breakthrough the Resistance: BTC's Path to $79,500 Post-Halving 💥
Hey Traders,
The FXPROFESSOR is back, analyzing charts and bringing you the latest scoop from the crypto world. After an eventful time at the Dubai expo, it's time to dive back into the world of Bitcoin, especially post-halving.
We've experienced a dip, partly influenced by the global geopolitical landscape, but it's crucial to focus on what lies ahead. My steadfast analysis, dating back to February 2023, still eyes that $79,500 level as the key resistance to beat.
Right now, we’re eyeing an important mark on the chart: the ascending channel, which is currently posing resistance at approximately $68,430. Should Bitcoin break back into this channel, we're looking at interim resistance around $76,360, paving the way to our major target.
But let's not rush. Understanding the halving's implications is essential. Typically, Bitcoin's halving events tighten the currency's supply, often resulting in bullish outcomes (Coinbase) (Crypto.com). However, the context for each halving is unique, and the most recent one unfolds amidst a complex backdrop of market ETFs and global events (Bitpowr).
Remember, the journey to $79,500 isn't just a number—it's about charting the course through each resistance level. Let's navigate these waves with precision and patience.
For a deeper understanding of Bitcoin’s trajectory and the impact of halving events, explore the rich analysis available across several articles from leading crypto resources (links below).
Stay tuned as we decode the signals and carve a path to our peak resistance. Take it one step at a time and let the market dynamics after the halving lead the way.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Links:
www.theguardian.com
www.forbes.com
www.coindesk.com
www.cnbc.com
www.forbes.com
BITCOIN ANALYSIS I'm still bullish #bitcoin but I'm not as certain as I was before! The 2 green highlighted levels are still holding up. I'm my view, either bank's & institutions are filling orders before the next leg up which will be a new all time high again! However, if this is a battle between buyers & sellers, I'm not too confident these levels will hold. If they don't, expect it to fall to the highlighted demand zone/support level below @ GETTEX:52K level/zone!
Top of channel POC magnet buyThese algorithms say this price action is a buy, and are indicating pressure towards the top of the daily trennd channel. this fund is oversold, and in pullback from a bullish overall trend where it has consolidated above fair valu gap and equillibrium.
AI is good at trading crypto, and if the computer is buying itself, then im buying the computer
AMEX:BITO
CME:BTC1!
Thanks to BTC, a couple of Cathie Wood funds are about to flash A month ago Morningstar identified the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK) as one of the largest wealth destroyers in the fund industry, with the ETF losing $7.1 billion in investors' wealth over the past decade due to its strategy of using leverage to bet against the Nasdaq-100 (NDX).
Additionally, the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) has shredded $4.2 billion in wealth over the same period, making it another significant underperformer within the ARK family of funds. Despite the poor performance, ARK Innovation has continued to attract investors, who pay a 0.75% annual fee, illustrating that even during favorable market conditions, there is no any guarantee of success in investing.
Ark Invest as well as lady Wood was all the rage in 2020 and 2021, when its concentrated bets on highly speculative, mostly unprofitable technology companies paid off in a big way thanks to low interest rates, monetary stimulus and a boom in risk appetite among retail investors.
The ARKK ETF destroyed $7.1 billion in wealth, while its healthcare-focused ARK Genomic ETF destroyed $4.2 billion in wealth, according to Morningstar.
Across all fund families that have destroyed wealth over the past decade, Ark Invest topped the list — and its losses with ARKK and ARKG were more than double the next firm on the list.
Despite the massive wealth destruction, ARK Invest as a business is doing just fine. The investment company still has more than $13 billion in assets across its suite of all ETFs, signaling that not all investors have abandoned Wood's investment strategy.
While the biggest value destroyers in the fund industry provide a valuable case study in how not to invest, and illustrate that there's no guarantee of success, even during a generally favorable market environment, let's take a look will recent spot BTC ETFs launch change the game or not.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management LLC is snapping up shares of the firm’s just-launched spot-Bitcoin ETF as competition among the inaugural issuers escalates.
A consistent bid from its sister fund could help give ARKB a leg-up in a highly competitive environment for spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The Securities and Exchange Commission allowed 10 such ETFs to launch on January 11, 2024, preventing any one of them from gaining first-mover advantage.
That has set up an unusually high-stakes horse race, given that all the funds hold the same underlying asset.
Funneling the firm’s own money into an ETF is one way to gain scale quickly — an important criteria for financial advisers and platforms, many of which have minimum-asset thresholds, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Who knows what is next.
But still it works so far, as ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) with solid 13.84% stake on Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN , as well as ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) with its massive 20% Double Powered 'Coinbase+BTC' cannon, both are on positive path in 2024.
Technical graphs for ARK Fintech Innovation ETF AMEX:ARKF (upper chart) and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF AMEX:ARKW (lower chart), thanks to recent gains in BTCUSD and Coinbase (COIN), indicates on potential Reversed Head-and-Shoulders price pattern development, being topped off with huge weekly EMA(200) breakthrough in both cases.
Told you $BTC has been a different animal!!!1st CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart shows the arrows pointing to the highs of this morning.
2nd #BTC chart shows where it is at the moment.
This shows us that Spot #bitcoin is correcting itself and catching up to Future's price action.
Futures $ Flow broke the downtrend & is rising. Bullish.
Spot $ Flow is pretty even. But just like price action, this will likely correct itself and catch up.
Both show lower RSI but IMO doesn't matter, yet, because the trend is strong!
Told ya it's different this time! It has been different!
Bitcoin's Huge Level: History shows the way (UP!)Hello everyone! In today's TradingView idea, we're delving into Bitcoin's current trajectory, especially as altcoins experience sharper declines. We'll focus on Bitcoin, as it's showing some unique behavior amidst market uncertainties.
Bitcoin at a Crossroads: The Big Rejection and Whale Dynamics
Bitcoin recently faced a significant rejection at a major support level, a point I've emphasized in numerous analyses. The concept of "buy the rumor, sell the news" is pertinent here, especially in the context of whale behavior. This pattern has led to Bitcoin oscillating between a potential breakout and lateral movement.
Failed Breakouts and SEC Impacts
Contrary to previous tendencies, I've shifted from a bullish to a bearish stance on Bitcoin. Recent developments involving the SEC and ETFs have failed to catalyze a breakout. This, coupled with Grayscale's ongoing Bitcoin offloading, presents a nuanced market picture.
The Fibonacci Perspective and Support Levels
Applying Fibonacci analysis, we notice key rebounds at the 0.38 level, indicative of potential future movements. However, we must also consider the 0.618 Fib level for a comprehensive view. Currently, Bitcoin hovers around a critical Fibonacci level, hinting at potential rebounds or further declines.
Channel Analysis and Price Predictions
Examining Bitcoin's movement within a massive channel provides insights into potential support levels. Should Bitcoin break below these levels, a drop to as low as $31,000 could be on the cards. However, based on fundamentals and easing selling pressure, there's a rationale for a bullish stance between current levels and $39,900.
Target and Caution
The immediate target lies in the $48,000 to $49,000 range, serving as a resistance cluster. However, we must remain vigilant, acknowledging the possibility of a significant downturn if key levels are lost.
Closing Thoughts
In conclusion, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. While the potential for an upward breakout exists, we must prepare for volatility and possible lower dips. My analysis leans towards a bullish outcome, with an 82% likelihood of avoiding a drastic fall.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Trading setup at IBIT gaps on US market opening👀🚨❓The BitcoinETF IBIT will open the US market with a pre-market gap up today dear Crypto Nation👀🚨
Why can this be important❓
In 6 out of 6 times when that happened we saw BTC go up at least 1,000 USD before getting down 500 USD🚀
No financial advice to open a trade at US market opening with RR 2,0... but keep an eye on the behavior today - might be an interesting trading setup in general👀
Comments💭, Likes♥️ & Follow🔗appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Time to Buy the 'Sell The News' ? 🌐📈 "Navigating Bitcoin's Pivotal Moments: A Deep Dive into Resistance and Support" 🚀🔍
Hello FX Professor Community! 🌟 Today, we embark on a detailed exploration of Bitcoin's current trajectory, a journey that combines technical analysis with market intuition. Happy Martin Luther King's Day to our friends in America and around the globe! 🌍
Bitcoin ETFs and Market Dynamics 📊💡
Firstly, a heartfelt thank you for your engagement with the Bitcoin ETF idea on Tradingview. Your insights are pivotal in shaping our collective understanding of the market. Recent developments around the Bitcoin ETF have introduced new dynamics, influencing both sentiment and price action.
Reflecting on Past Predictions 🔙🤔
Looking back at our last Bitcoin prediction, we anticipated the need for caution due to a potential breakout failure in the SEC Greenlight ETF. True to our analysis, Bitcoin's price did see a dip, underscoring the importance of staying alert and adaptable in these volatile markets.
Crypto Winter: Thawing or Persisting? ❄️🔥
The question on everyone's mind: Is the crypto winter coming to an end? We've been closely monitoring key resistance levels, especially those significant pre-halving. Our recent observations suggest a temporary breakout, which unfortunately turned out to be a false signal.
SEC Influence and Market Movements 🏛️📉
A point of interest is the apparent SEC manipulation, notably the Twitter incident. This event coincided with crucial price levels in Bitcoin, altering its potential breakout path. Instead of surging past significant levels before ETF approvals, we witnessed a redirection to lower prices.
Analyzing Current Support and Resistance Levels 🧐📏
As we delve into the chart, the focus shifts to identifying current support and resistance levels. Notably, the support around $41,745, just below the $42,000 psychological barrier, holds significant weight. Conversely, we're keeping an eye on the resistance at $43,280, a potential obstacle in Bitcoin's upward journey.
Predictions and Expectations 🚀🔮
In the short term, we anticipate some sideways movement, especially with the U.S. markets closed for the holiday. Post-holiday, we could see pivotal movements, possibly challenging the $44,000 level. Our analysis leans towards a bullish scenario, expecting Bitcoin to test the formidable $48,000 resistance yet again.
Investigating ETFs and Bitcoin's Buying Power 💼🔍
We're diving deeper into the ETFs' role in Bitcoin's market dynamics. Understanding when and how these ETFs buy Bitcoin, and their impact on the market, is crucial for our forward-looking strategies.
Conclusion: Staying Ahead of the Curve 🌟📚
As we navigate these intriguing market waters, remember that the key lies in understanding and adapting to these levels. Our goal at FX Professor is not just to analyze but to stay a step ahead, ensuring we're prepared for every market twist and turn.
Stay tuned for more insights, and let's continue this exciting journey together!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Market Update - February 16, 2024
Bitcoin tops GETTEX:52K as ETF inflows build: Bitcoin ETF inflows accelerated this week, with close to $1.5B of inflows over the first three days of the week, and four of the ETFs (excluding Grayscale) now holding over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B in AUM just one month after launching. Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leads the pack with over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B in AUM. As of Friday morning, BTC is currently trading around $52.1K, up 10% over the past week.
Ether hits $2,800 as its own ETF conversation builds: This week Ethereum broke above the $2,800 level for the first time since May 2022, and investors are spying the $3,500 April 2022 peak should the recent bullish momentum continue. There are currently 9 ETF issuers that have submitted applications for an ether ETF. After experiencing the impact spot bitcoin ETF approvals had on the price of bitcoin and the large inflows that are coming in daily, investors could be expecting a similar move in ETH should an ether ETF be approved.
Stacks outperforms, gaining over 45% this week: Stacks (STX), a project that aims to enable smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFI) applications on the Bitcoin network, has been one of the biggest outperformers this week posting gains of 45% over the past seven days. The ability for Stacks to bring smart contract functionality to Bitcoin, has positioned the project well for increased attention alongside Bitcoin following the success of the spot ETFs.
Interest rate cut expectations lowered as CPI comes in strong: The US consumer price index (CPI) released on Tuesday, showed consumer prices increasing more than expected in January, coming in at 0.3% on the month and 3.1% year on year, while 0.2% and 2.9% were expected. The market saw some readjustments to interest rate cut expectations following the release, now pricing in a 30% chance of a rate cut by the May FOMC meeting, down significantly from the near 100% chance priced in one month ago.
🗺️ Topic of the Week: Real-World Use Cases for Smart Contract and dApps
👉 Read more here
What if Bitcoin ETF's Never Make Money?Above is Blackrock's new Bitcoin ETF.
This is mostly a joke and a "wait and see" post. I'm curious whether the liquidity generated by these Bitcoin ETF's creates a permanent resistance at their opening day high, which is around $30 for IBIT. I'm speculating that Bitcoin may never again breach $50k. Again, I'm partially kidding with this post but wouldn't be surprised if it came true.
Essentially, when various cryptocurrencies are listed on prominent exchanges like Coinbase or Binance, they initially pump on their first day of trading, only to dump endlessly in the weeks following. Hardly any hyped cryptocurrencies survive their listing date and move on to achieve new highs. That's because the listing day is the day where the most of that coin is traded, the sellers being insiders and whales who held until that very date with the intent to never buy back. With access to so much more liquidity, it becomes easier to sell without immediately tanking the price. Price only tanks once demand totally evaporates. Essentially "exit liquidity."
So, the demand for Bitcoin must remain elevated in order for these ETF's to be successful. We'll have to see what happens. I speculate that the demand will not be high enough given the liquidity and the scarcity of Bitcoin to keep price up. In theory, Bitcoin's scarcity is an advantage here, but my implication is that it's a double-edged sword. Scarcity can also have a psychological impact, which I think Bitcoin proponents often ignore. Especially if the thing itself isn't very useful, scarcity can just cause people to have less interest in it. "It just doesn't matter as much anymore. I'll just buy other things. People already own most of it, why bother?"
Bitcoin does not have much value at all to society. This is easily provable because if it ceased to exist, not much would change. Until this is no longer the case, I will continue to believe Bitcoin doesn't have much growth ahead of it. It'll remain niche and important for some utilities, but it isn't the future of money.
On the other hand, if the Internet ceased to exist we'd have way more problems. Society would likely collapse until we rework our systems backwards to how they were before. It would probably be worse than the great depression.
Now about a popular theory as to why price dropped recently.
Grayscale this, grayscale that. Grayscale's high fees and the resulting switch from grayscale to newer ETF's is only part of the equation, I think. Otherwise, we'd see those funds quickly going into the new ETF's. Many Grayscale buyers bought their shares at a huge negative premium, and so they are making extra profit, on top of Bitcoin's gains from the last year. They could be selling, never looking back. I'm also guessing some long term Bitcoin holders are folding here, with not much else to speculate about. Again, I think this is a "jig is up" moment, much like the super bowl ads in 2022.
Because Bitcoin is now trading outside of the crypto world in such a meaningful way, there is now a vacuum between the two markets. The stablecoin cartel will then have a much harder time influencing price, which is how Bitcoin's scarcity works against it. Now, the big boys on wall street can also go short on these new ETF's.
It will be simple to prove this speculation wrong. Bitcoin will just have to pump over $50k at some point in the future. It'll be funny if this turns out to be correct, but I don't think the chance of it is high. My opinion on Bitcoin is pretty low, so I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be true either.
I still think Michael Saylor will become a forced seller at some point in the future. He is quite overleveraged and controls a very large portion of all the Bitcoin.
Thanks for reading, even though there isn't much substance in this post.
As always, this is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra