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Bearish Bitcoin Spike on the Weekly"Buy the rumor/Sell the news" is a phenomenon as old as markets. It was like betting on the sun not to rise tomorrow. I have talked to many Bitcoin enthusiasts who are perplexed by this occurrence. They were assured by various Twitter personalities that this week would see the largest inflow of capital into Bitcoin ever, price would rise, and if they just bought prior to the news they would make tremendous gains. This was never going to happen. With the close of the prior eventful week's candle we now have a confirmed price Spike on the INDEX:BTCUSD Weekly. On Wednesday amid the "buy the news" nonsense price briefly surpassed a major high set in March 2022 only to retrace the entire ETF launch and then return to the bottom of the prior range. This is a very bearish signal from which price does not typically recover. The first level of Support will be found around 32.2k; the 50% Retracement of the rally since November 2022. The most ironic, and most likely outcome, is that price retraces the entire ETF hype rally. Breaking the ETF news high would of course resume the trend upward but at this point despite the memes circulating Twitter trying to reassure all to HODL that is a very low probability with the price action we have seen. I remain short Bitcoin via pre-existing ETFs such as AMEX:BITI and will be adding to them during the coming week. Wall Street is not coming to save your longs...
Editors' picks
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
66
My 2023 Bitcoin ShortSince September 2023 Bitcoin has been in a rally predicated on the Bitcoin ETF launch. The chart has setup in accordance with my technical rules to finally short (bet against) the price action. I am also going to use this post to expand upon my broader bearish outlook on Bitcoin at present and into the future. I was definitively Bullish on Bitcoin in Q1 if 2023 (see linked past Bitcoin posts here on Tradingview) but I am now of the opinion this rally has stalled and will reverse. -The Trade:- Bitcoin has hit a MAJOR Resistance of the 50% Retracement from the All Time High to the November 2021 low at 42235 (see chart below) which I have been noting in my Weekly Livestream all year. Price overshot the level but as we go into this weekend price will close above or below it to reject or confirm it as Resistance. This Sunday night Weekly bar close will affect my outlook. Within the "impulse" move off the recent high the 50% level is 42457 and is remarkably aligned with the wider 50% level. The first profit objective of my short it the 50% of the September onward bullish trend at 34800 but will be a partial take profit with some left on for more bearish action. If price closes back above the 50% Retracements this weekend and/or a new recent high is made then it is likely I will close my short and re-evaluate. To express this trade I am not "shorting Bitcoin" proper but rather buying Puts on AMEX:BITO with expirations in June 2024. Weekly 50% Retracement view: -Bitcoin ETF: "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News"- I remain of the opinion that the Bitcoin ETF Launch will be a "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" type event. Much optimistic speculation has been placed upon the prospect of "Boomers Buying Bitcoin" because now they (retirees and institutions) can purchase Bitcoin in their retirement accounts. As I noted, I am expressing my trade using BITO which is a Bitcoin Trust instrument. There are already plenty of Bitcoin derivative products available for typical investors to use. Ergo, it is not obvious to me how an ETF launching will change the landscape significantly. Furthermore, I am reminded of a similar event in the past; the launching of CBOE Bitcoin Futures. Futures on Bitcoin launched on December 17th, 2017 literally marking that high and the end of that rally. -Price Outlook: Things are Different Now?- The bullish case for Bitcoin now even after the ETF launches is the coming Halving Cycle. Everyone note that it has created loosely bullish price action 3 out of 3 past times and will likely do so again. First, I do not thins 3/3 is statistically significant. Second, causation or correlation? Was it the Halving Cycle that made Bitcoin bullish or just the fact that it has been going up all this time anyway? One must acknowledge that Bitcoin was born and grew in a 0% interest rate environment which no longer exists. That fundamentally changes the amount of capital that is being infused into Bitcoin which created the 2021 rally. People like to share historical charts and then superimpose them to current price action. Most social media posts you will see are bullish because those are the ones that get the most engagement. No where else have I seen this glaringly obvious (to me) comparison of the current rally in context of the 2019 price action (below). I recall distinctly at that time that everyone was convinced the months prior were just a small hiccup and the new ATH rally was underway. Instead, we had a major economic event (COVID) to come that would push Bitcoin back down to close to the bear market lows again. 2019 versus 2023 -Future Outlook: What is Bitcoin?- The question, "what is Bitcoin?" has been asked for over a decade. I myself became interested in Bitcoin as a "tool for human freedom" that made sense to me from my Information Technology background and Libertarian political leanings. However, I have sadly watched as Bitcoin has been "normalized" in favor of "mainstream adoption" to the point we have reached now where large institutions buying Bitcoin is heralded as an accomplishment. That was never the point... as I see it nor as Satoshi's whitepaper wrote. Over the last few months I have consumed the mainstream (of Bitcoin Maximalist) social media posts and derived that the opinion of Bitcoin is NOT one of replacing the fiat dollar nor disrupting the traditional financial system. Instead the memes have been centered around some flavor or "Buy it now before the price goes higher!" Lost are the memes of yesteryear about Bitcoin combating inflation (due in part likely to the fact that the Fed's actions are actually yielding desired results). The memes around Bitcoin during this rally are frankly reminiscent of Dogecoin COINBASE:DOGEUSD TO THE MOON!!! When I attended the first Bitcoin conference in New York in 2011, we were all excited to do something never done before: buy lunch with Bitcoin. A shop down the street from the hotel venue (which at that time could only hold about 250 people) had setup a terminal to accept Bitcoin as payment. This was revolutionary at the time (there were no online payment apps such as Venmo, Zelle, or Apple pay yet invented). Two things happened: Confirmations were slow. A long queue began to develop as people waited for payments to go through. We got hungry. I sat at a table with Jesse Powell, the hitherto future founder of Kraken, who I estimated was sitting on 10s of thousands of Bitcoin... who paid for his lunch with US Dollars. What I learned in 2011 about Bitcoin was: The technology is slow and cumbersome for transaction volume People that own Bitcoin will not spend it Nothing has fundamentally changed on those points in 12 years despite the smartest of technical and economic experts' best efforts. If we look at the average confirmation time for Bitcoin it stands at 64 minutes and the average transaction fee is $25.11. That latter number has been increasing dramatically since the start of November. It is not because of the bullish rally (which began in September). It is because of the failure of Lightning Network. Lightning network was supposed to fix these technical limitations of speed and fees with Bitcoin by adding a layer on top of Bitcoin. Unfortunately, in late October experts discovered a major vulnerability in Lightning Network's programming that would allow nefarious actors to steal Lightning Network Bitcoin. Since then, over half a decade of work and hopes put into Lightning Network have been dashed as the developers now begin to look at a new implementation. The failure of Lightning Network in no way means "Bitcoin is dead." The Layer 1 Bitcoin network is robust as ever. Bitcoin just remains terribly unsuited to be the replacement for global currency. But as I noted above, it was never going to be because no will spend money today that they believe can buy more stuff tomorrow. It is great for the buyer to wait and buy two hamburgers next week for the price today... but bad for businesses that make hamburgers who will go out of business next week if no one buys hamburgers this week. So what is the "use case" of Bitcoin? If we cite that Al Gore invented the Internet in 1985, when the Internet was 13 years old (like Bitcoin) people were using it to send email, host databases, and order goods and services. We were unaware of the true future use cases of the Internet but many of these uses were already underway and people and businesses were using it to save money and/or sell more goods and services. The Internet was a wealth generation machine: it created value. So it pains me to acknowledge now that Bitcoin has settled on a single use case: "personal wealth generation" and rather than generate new wealth it instead acts as a vacuum of capital. TL;DR: The ETF launch will be a "Sell the News" event. I am now of the opinion that Bitcoin has lost its way to being a disruptive technology. I am of the opinion that this rally will not make a new All Time High.
Editors' picks
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
124
Bitcoin's Pivotal Moment: Crucial Support Level Analysis📊🚀 Bitcoin's Pivotal Moment: Navigating the Crucial Support Level - A Technical Analysis Deep Dive 💹🧭 Hello everyone! In today's TradingView idea, we're delving into Bitcoin's current trajectory, especially as altcoins experience sharper declines. We'll focus on Bitcoin, as it's showing some unique behavior amidst market uncertainties. Bitcoin at a Crossroads: The Big Rejection and Whale Dynamics Bitcoin recently faced a significant rejection at a major support level, a point I've emphasized in numerous analyses. The concept of "buy the rumor, sell the news" is pertinent here, especially in the context of whale behavior. This pattern has led to Bitcoin oscillating between a potential breakout and lateral movement. Failed Breakouts and SEC Impacts Contrary to previous tendencies, I've shifted from a bullish to a bearish stance on Bitcoin. Recent developments involving the SEC and ETFs have failed to catalyze a breakout. This, coupled with Grayscale's ongoing Bitcoin offloading, presents a nuanced market picture. The Fibonacci Perspective and Support Levels Applying Fibonacci analysis, we notice key rebounds at the 0.38 level, indicative of potential future movements. However, we must also consider the 0.618 Fib level for a comprehensive view. Currently, Bitcoin hovers around a critical Fibonacci level, hinting at potential rebounds or further declines. Channel Analysis and Price Predictions Examining Bitcoin's movement within a massive channel provides insights into potential support levels. Should Bitcoin break below these levels, a drop to as low as $31,000 could be on the cards. However, based on fundamentals and easing selling pressure, there's a rationale for a bullish stance between current levels and $39,900. Target and Caution The immediate target lies in the $48,000 to $49,000 range, serving as a resistance cluster. However, we must remain vigilant, acknowledging the possibility of a significant downturn if key levels are lost. Closing Thoughts In conclusion, Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. While the potential for an upward breakout exists, we must prepare for volatility and possible lower dips. My analysis leans towards a bullish outcome, with an 82% likelihood of avoiding a drastic fall. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Long
by FX_Professor
2
BTC PULLBACK Currently experiencing a 12-month BEARISH Stophunt on BTC. This pullback is apparently due to Greyscale selling its BTC shares I see we will AT LEAST drop down to 40k, but lower is more than likely necessary for capitulation and a move higher. I see approx areas of support being 39K,35k,32k,30k,26k Anything is possible. I personally would love another OPP to accumulate Alts and as much as possible before the BTC halving event. THANKS FOR YOUR TIME!! FOLLOW AND SHARE FOR MORE! NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, JUST MY 2CENTS!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Cosmicbag
SEC Greenlights ETF but Breakout failed! / Be Aware!!! 🎉 ETF Approval: A Cause for Celebration or Concern in Crypto? Hello, traders! Today's update comes with a blend of excitement and a touch of caution. 🎭 The long-awaited ETF has been approved, slicing through the SEC's comedy of errors. Yet, amidst the celebrations, a sentiment poll reveals a split view: 32% are elated 🚀, 42% content but expected more 😐, and I'm with the 19% feeling a twinge of disappointment 😔. Let's dissect the chart and today's happenings to understand why. 📉🚦🤔 The Missed Breakout: Bitcoin's Resistance Conundrum Despite the bullish news, Bitcoin failed to rally past the crucial support/resistance level. This yellow line isn't just any marker; it's the one I've been spotlighting since January 2023. 🎯 It's where Bitcoin's fate hangs in the balance. 🔍 Technical Analysis: Seeking Direction in the Crypto Winter Aftermath Our journey through the crypto winter revealed strong buy signals at $16K, $20K, with a confirmation dip at $24K, offering numerous chances to go long. However, with the ETF news failing to push us beyond the pivotal level, it's time to ponder – are we gearing up for a major breakout, or is it wise to 'sell the news'? 🤔 📈🚦 Strategic Outlook: Navigating the Crypto Seas Here's the strategy moving forward: Buy the Breakout: If Bitcoin ascends over $48,200, it's a green light. ✅🚀 Sell the News: If it lingers under FWB:48K , caution is your best ally. 🛑📉 🔁 Shifting Focus: Ethereum's Emerging Narrative Switching focus to Ethereum, the ETH/BTC chart hints at a shifting tide in altcoins, while Bitcoin dawdles at resistance. Whale psychology suggests that altcoins like Ethereum and Cardano could diverge from Bitcoin's path. 🔮 Anticipating the Halving: A Glance at Historical Patterns In anticipation of April's halving, historical patterns imply we could witness Bitcoin soar to the $100K-$300K range. Yet, for now, the prudent move is to wait for a decisive breakout above $48,200 or brace for potential retracements to $42,800 or even $40,000. 🧐 🌐 Macro Perspective: The Bigger Picture in Crypto Dynamics Keeping an eye on the macro scene, interest rates, and institutional moves post-ETF will be crucial. Remember, the market typically leads the news by six months. As we navigate these choppy waters, stay sharp and prepared to capitalize on both breakouts and pullbacks. 📊 🔔 Final Thoughts: Staying Ahead of the Curve Just how we did Here and Here and Here and Here One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Short
by FX_Professor
4
🔥 BTC/USD - Another Bull-Run ? (READ THE CAPTION FOR MORE INFO)By checking the bitcoin chart, we can see that the price, after Collecting the BUY-Side liquidity above of the $47,950 resistance with growth up to $49,000, followed by a fall and corrected to the range of $41,500! Now the price has reached a demand range, and if the price stabilizes above $40,400 and does not penetrate below this level, we can expect Bitcoin to grow again to $45,500 as the first target! After that, this analysis will be updated! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
What happens when Crypto Chessboard flips?In-depth analysis considers various factors: Despite the approaching Bitcoin halving. We consider the following: Acknowledging the historical price surge before the Bitcoin ETF launch, making it resistant to substantial capital investments. Recognising the lack of momentum post-ETF launch and the struggle to breach the upper resistance around 51-52k. Taking into account the challenging global economic situation, particularly in the United States. Highlighting the potential impact of a Black Swan Event, investigating the consequences of a fictitious ETF post. Addressing uncertainties following CZ's departure from Binance as CEO, posing another potential Black Swan event that could push prices below the Wyckoff distribution phase boundary at 24-22k. Speculating a third logical move by corporate traders to increase market liquidity, creating a massive bull trap to attract influencers and optimists anticipating a significant Bitcoin ETF-driven price surge, leading to widespread doubt in Bitcoin and a gradual decline to the Wyckoff lower support. Related Financial News: - Bitcoin's halving event draws attention from traders, with speculation on its potential impact. - Historical price patterns show resistance before major events like ETF launches, impacting capital flow. - Global economic uncertainties, especially in the U.S., contribute to the overall market sentiment. - Increased scrutiny on potential Black Swan events, emphasizing the need for risk assessment. - Binance's CEO change introduces an element of uncertainty, potentially affecting market dynamics. - Corporate traders strategizing for liquidity boosts, creating opportunities for market manipulation. - Influencers and optimists fuel expectations of a Bitcoin ETF-driven surge, but skepticism prevails due to historical patterns and external uncertainties.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by wikitrades
1
Bitcoin Is On Track With Last CycleDoing some cycle analysis today and looking at the bigger trends. One thing I have been noticing is the correlation that Bitcoin has with last cycle's action. To me, Bitcoin is on track with last cycle, sometimes you just have to zoom out to see it. Too many times in crypto, people focus too heavily on the lower term time frames, trying to catch profit swings, or looking for the next memecoin to bounce, that we forget to zoom out and see the bigger picture. Today, I had to do just that to get a better perspective of where we are in the markets before I get to trading this week. There has been a ton of activity and 'sell the news' action after the Bitcoin ETF, which I actually sat out trading, but observed the price action. It actually went the way I thought it would. Pump before the news, dump after. We will see it rise in the longer term simply due to the fact that Wall Street is now a major player, but for now, we have to wait it out and see. What I am seeing when I zoom out to the weekly time frame, is that Bitcoin's price action resembles last cycle in very eerie ways. They say history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes, well, this is certainly true for this cycle. If you look at the chart you will see the similarities. We are in that same after bottom pump that we had in 2018-2019 where the price rose up after the market bottom and then settled back down through the block reward halving event before we went to this recent cycle highs. I am not seeing much different, and especially after the way the price has risen over the last few months without a significant pull back, me may be seeing that form at this time. I thought is that we see a potential decline back to 36K-38K because that is the closes major level of support where Bitcoin found some consolidation for a while. This creates a shelf for it to revisit. But it's not a bad thing if you want to stack some cheap sats. Just saying. We might be ranging for the next few months until the block rewards are cut in half, then through the summer into the fall, we may need to be watching for some fireworks! Until then, it's going to be some ranging so I am going to be looking to take some short range swings and accumulate for the bigger cycle push! Just got to sit back, be patient, and trade logically! Just my dudely advice, haha.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by thelogicaldude
Liquid-staking > Bitcoin ETF? Why did some coins do well?Trying to make sense of what happened this week in the markets - glad that Tezos is getting some shine but what made this week interesting is that it coincided with Bitcoin's ETF - news which didn't really help Bitcoin all that much but it helped a *select few* coins, while most of them actually went down. My gut tells me that both $XTZ and NYSE:SUI have something "normal people" want - which is basic, L1 liquid staking that allows people to earn "interest" on their money in a way where they don't have to lock it up. (Don't get me started on ETH on this one, lol.) LSE:TIA might've gotten some attention because they were marketing their liquid staking protocol recently but it's similar to other workaround solutions where you get tokens instead of the actual coin itself. I think it's safe to say that most people won't bother with L2 staking since managing sub-tokens within a currency itself is just too much work, and too much risk. This is mostly just a hunch the hypothesis right now is that some of the money that was supposed to flow into Bitcoin ETFs took a closer look at saw liquid staking as something potentially appealing since it's one of the few things in crypto that's easier to understand. What do you think?
Long
by RyanTanaka
Sell the News Today OR Buy the Breakout over 48k ?🎉 ETF Approval: A Cause for Celebration or Concern in Crypto? Hello, traders! Today's update comes with a blend of excitement and a touch of caution. 🎭 The long-awaited ETF has been approved, slicing through the SEC's comedy of errors. Yet, amidst the celebrations, a sentiment poll reveals a split view: 32% are elated 🚀, 42% content but expected more 😐, and I'm with the 19% feeling a twinge of disappointment 😔. Let's dissect the chart and today's happenings to understand why. 📉🚦🤔 The Missed Breakout: Bitcoin's Resistance Conundrum Despite the bullish news, Bitcoin failed to rally past the crucial support/resistance level. This yellow line isn't just any marker; it's the one I've been spotlighting since January 2023. 🎯 It's where Bitcoin's fate hangs in the balance. 🔍 Technical Analysis: Seeking Direction in the Crypto Winter Aftermath Our journey through the crypto winter revealed strong buy signals at $16K, $20K, with a confirmation dip at $24K, offering numerous chances to go long. However, with the ETF news failing to push us beyond the pivotal level, it's time to ponder – are we gearing up for a major breakout, or is it wise to 'sell the news'? 🤔 📈🚦 Strategic Outlook: Navigating the Crypto Seas Here's the strategy moving forward: Buy the Breakout: If Bitcoin ascends over $48,200, it's a green light. ✅🚀 Sell the News: If it lingers under FWB:48K , caution is your best ally. 🛑📉 🔁 Shifting Focus: Ethereum's Emerging Narrative Switching focus to Ethereum, the ETH/BTC chart hints at a shifting tide in altcoins, while Bitcoin dawdles at resistance. Whale psychology suggests that altcoins like Ethereum and Cardano could diverge from Bitcoin's path. 🔮 Anticipating the Halving: A Glance at Historical Patterns In anticipation of April's halving, historical patterns imply we could witness Bitcoin soar to the $100K-$300K range. Yet, for now, the prudent move is to wait for a decisive breakout above $48,200 or brace for potential retracements to $42,800 or even $40,000. 🧐 🌐 Macro Perspective: The Bigger Picture in Crypto Dynamics Keeping an eye on the macro scene, interest rates, and institutional moves post-ETF will be crucial. Remember, the market typically leads the news by six months. As we navigate these choppy waters, stay sharp and prepared to capitalize on both breakouts and pullbacks. 📊 🔔 Final Thoughts: Staying Ahead of the Curve Just how we did Here and Here and Here and Here One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
by FX_Professor
3
2024 Bear Market Rally (2018 -19 Fib & Historical Analysis)We are still waiting for our weekly close to come in, however thought I would share a quick idea looking at our current price action from a cycles perspective. Speculating the current move from January 2023 to now as the swing top of the '2024 Bear Market Recovery Rally', and comparing the 2018-2019 bear bull cycle to our current (using fib retracement). Key Assumptions * April 2021 as the bull market cycle high * We are still waiting for the weekly candle to close (may invalidate above thesis if recovers for the close) Key Current Observations * Current Weekly Candle has swept the 0.786 Fib Retracement with very similar behavior currently to what we observed in June 2019 (which marketed the swing top of the bear market recover rally). Points 6 & 7 resemble historic comparisons to moves post point 5 in the 2019 cycle. ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS * While there are many indicators showing BTC is very much in the over price territory, a similar point (Jun 2016) while there was a substantial pull back it was short lived and the market used it to rest and shrug off sellers to push the market onward. * March 2020 Black Swan (COVID Pandemic)
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Brodie
1
Market Update - January 12 2024 Spot bitcoin ETFs begin trading on US exchanges: On Wednesday, the SEC approved the launch of 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, and trading launched on Thursday. The approval of US-based spot bitcoin ETFs marked a historic day for bitcoin and crypto as a whole, opening the door to an entirely new set of retail and institutional investors. As trading started Thursday morning, BTC rose to FWB:49K before paring back gains to sit below $45k by Friday morning. Over $4.6 billion traded across all spot bitcoin ETFs on Thursday, likely setting a record for the highest day-one volume for a single type of ETF. Ether surges as focus shifts to potential ether ETF: Ether (ETH) had been struggling in comparison to BTC over the past few months as attention centered around the bitcoin ETF applications, with the ETHBTC pair hitting its lowest level since April 2021 at 0.04788. However, following Tuesday’s bitcoin ETF head fake, the pair jumped to 0.052 suggesting a rotation out of BTC and into ETH for a catch up play and an expectation that the narrative will shift toward a potential ether ETF approval later this year. This was further evident on the actual approval Wednesday, with the ETHBTC continuing to rally higher, currently trading near 0.06 as of Friday morning. Inflation ticks up as interest rate cuts expected in 2024: US equities rose steadily this week as investors awaited inflation data released on Thursday. Thursday’s data showed a mild 0.3% increase in the consumer price index (CPI) for December, reflecting a 3.4% yearly increase. Estimates had been for a 0.2% December increase and a 3.2% annualized increase. Altcoins perform well as total crypto market cap nears $1.8 trillion: Much of the wider crypto market saw price appreciation this week, with some leveraged ETH and BTC plays showing good returns. Ethereum Classic (ETC) is trading up more than 55% over the past seven days, while Lido DAO (LDO) added 20% over the same period. The total crypto market capitalization is now approaching the $1.8 trillion mark, its highest level since April 2022, prior to the Terra/LUNA collapse. Circle, USDC issuer, files for initial public offering (IPO): On Thursday, Circle announced that it had filed a confidential S-1 document with the SEC, as it seeks to launch an initial public offering (IPO). While the announcement was light on details, Circle had previously announced in 2021 that it planned to go public via a SPAC, with a $9 billion valuation as of February 2022. 🎭 Topic of the Week: Why was Bitcoin created? 👉 Read more here
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Gemini