Bitcoinforecast
Bitcoin BTC analysisUpdate from my last bitcoin analysis. Short term bullish (net 3-6 months), long term, we'll see once we retest the red lines indicating resistance & then
fall back & hold the white diagonal line, signaling a trend continuation to the upside. If this happens, that's when I'll look to add to my crypto positions.
News does't matter to me. I'm a trader. All trades show up in the chart. Talk with no trades taking place = distraction.
Only cryptos I'm taking seriously:
Bitcoin - just to trade & make money
Ripple/xrp - if governments/businesses allow it as payment or the ledger gets used by large investors
Solana - only because its used heavily in gaming
XTZ - I was in it for the rate of return but they've dropped that from 6 to 3%, so I'm not adding as much
Cardona/AAVE - small positions just to see if the tech gets taken seriously (not betting big on these)
🟩First time bullish for BTCUSD, in a long time🟩 I've being bearish on BTCUSD for a long time. However recently the market structure shifted. Only one shift to the upside so we are not in a real uptrend yet, and it's possible to see further distribution. However until that PL holds, I'll be more bullish overall.
Bitcoin long term outlookFirst outlook on previous analysis turned out to be wrong, but the overall idea is very much valid: BTC is now hanging around supply area/886 retracement level and losing momentum, RSI showing heavy divergence.
I wouldnt't expect prices to go balistic in 2023 with recession coming and goverments doing all kinds of crazy stuff.
This could very well be the top of the "bull trap", "fake out" or however you wanna call it.
In case we break 25k, 30k would be pretty much guaranteed, but i still excpect a sub 10k Btc within the year.
Remember the market will always gear towards the maximum amount of loss for the max amount of people, I would argue that a sub 10k BTC would be almost a sure thing if we get to 30k as the top of the fake out, just cause it would be such a loss for most people.
Always working level by level and taking action based on what the market tells me and not my feelisngs.
I would only enetertain the possibility of the bottom having been 15k if we break above 30k, until then this is the plan.
LETS PUMP THIS BABY. BTC/USDT ANALYSIS THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE....this video is provided for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose.
LET'S GATHER AT 25K AND TALK WHAT ARE THE NEXT POSSIBLE ZONE! TUNE IN!
BITCOIN price, SP500, FOMC-Fed Funds Rate. Today will be hot🔥In 9 hours (from the moment the idea is published), the FOMC meeting will announce the new Fed Funds rate
At the previous meeting on 12/14/2022, the rate was raised from 4.00% to 4.50%
And then, the forecast was more than 70% that on 02/01/2023 the rate would be raised by another +0.5%, and on 03/22/2023 +0.25%
However, over the past month, US economic indicators have shown positive dynamics , sometimes even better than expected.
CPI 12/01/2023 - 6.5%, and GDP with a forecast of 2.6%, - 26.01.23 = 2.9%.
Everything was as the Fed wanted and as the markets were "guided".
Most financial markets took this news very positively, including the cryptocurrency market.
Roughly speaking, the announcement of today's rate has already been "priced in" to current prices.
Moreover, 99.7% expect that due to improved macroeconomic indicators, the US will announce a rate hike of only +0.25% today, not 0.5% as predicted a month earlier.
And more than 82% believe that the rate will be raised by +0.25% to 5% in total on 03/22/2013.
To summarize:
- the announcement of a rate within the expected range of 4.50-4.75% will act as a driver for the continued growth of both the SP 500 and the crypto market. Of course, increased volatility is guaranteed, which may be used to try to knock "extra passengers" out of long positions with a squeeze down.
- The announcement of a rate of 5.00% or higher is guaranteed to bring down both the SP 500 and the crypto market. How long the fall down will last is "another question".
We have depicted these two possible scenarios as fractals.
Which one do you like better: blue or white? Vote in the comments
SP500 also has two possible scenarios:
_____________________
Did you like our analysis? Leave a comment, like, and follow to get more
Bullish on Bitcoin, Prove Me WrongThis is my favorite indicator for a macro lense. As you can see by the CM Super Guppy Indicator; and the VWAP something very interesting is happening that you cannot fade. First off you'll notice we are over the VWAP for the first time in months, but when layered over the Super Guppy Indicator you can see thats it's very hard to deny these moves in either direction. People will tell you to short this all the way up and it really makes you wonder. Also, 18500 was a serious level that was defended for 6 months and was only pushed slightly lower when the news of the FTX scandal hit. The very fact that within 6 weeks bulls we're able to reclaim this territory is not something to be faded. So yeah, until i am proven otherwise i am very bullish on Bitcoin
Bitcoin to leg up?Bitcoin - 24h expiry - We look to Buy a break of 24011 (stop at 23379)
Our short term bias remains positive.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
A break of the recent high at 23956 should result in a further move higher.
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Daily signals are bullish.
Our profit targets will be 25641 and 25941
Resistance: 23100 / 23500 / 23923
Support: 22700 / 22500 / 22300
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Too early to say that Bitcoin has entered a bullish trend?Is it too early to say that Bitcoin has entered a bullish trend? The weekly timeframe suggests that the overall trend might no longer be bearish considering the current price of Bitcoin has broken the upper line of the downward trend line.
A factor that could prevent Bitcoin from moving higher is that it is approaching the 200 EMA period, which could be a strong resistance. Furthermore, there is a supply zone at around $24,300 that could pose a problem for the cryptocurrency's short-term upward trend.
The narrative on the daily chart is almost the same, with the only significant change for a bullish signal being the closure above the 200 EMA period. On the other hand, the RSI indicator is giving an overbought signal. Currently, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase in the daily timeframe within the range of the Darvas box.
Bitcoin - THIS Support MUST HOLD❗Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉
Here's a quick 3min video for a potential long-setup on Bitcoin with an entry point, a take profit point and a stop loss point.
Here's my previous analysis on near term price action on BTC, which played out almost exactly:
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
Bitcoin is about to destroy the longs!Hello, everyone!
Yesterday we had the long trade which brought us the very small profit. I closed the trade manually because price has broken down the low of the bearish reversal bar. You can find this moment in the previous idea’s update. Today we have the potential short trade setup with the very tight stop loss.
1h time frame of the BINANCE:BTCUSDT chart is showing us that the yestrday’s pump is likely has been ended. First of all, the Awesome Oscillator shows the decreasing momentum which means that bears took control in their paws. Also we have the fractal level at $22919 , if Bitcoin price will break this level I am going to execute the short trade with the stop loss at $23173 becuase the second up fractal is placed there. The profit target I chose randomly.
Using the classical technical analysis we can see the triangle pattern which has been broken to the downside. This is not reliable sign for me, but it’s also the bearish sign.
Best regards, Ivan
________________________________________________________________________________________________
If you like my trade ideas, please smash the boost button to stimulate me make more quality analytics!
Will Bitcoin give us this long trade opportunity?Hello, everyone!
Let’s continue our trading journey. Yesterday we had the successful short trade on Bitcoin, but tonight it gave us the early reversal signal, that’s why I decided to close the trade in solid profit and wait what the market will give us.
Let’s take a look at the 1h time frame BINANCE:BTCUSDT chart. We can see the bullish reversal bar at the very bottom. This is the simply the bullish hammer with the large angle with the Williams Alligator red line. This was the first valid signal that the downtrend is weakening right now. Moreover the BTC has already created the first fractal above the red line. If it will be able to overcome this level at $22998 we can use the long trade setup pointed out on the chart. In case of losing support at $22738 we can open the new short trade because the potential trend reversal is not valid anymore. Anyway we should not try to predict the future, just trade the current market situation.
Best regards, Ivan
________________________________________________________________________________________________
If you like my trade ideas, please smash the boost button to stimulate me make more quality analytics!
Bitcoin is forming the bull trap right now!Hello, everyone!
I hope you enjoyed my last two trades, it were extremely risky, but we took very nice profit. I have completely changed my mind about trading. As you know I have lost significant amount of money, shorting the market during current bull rally. It was the moment where I fully understood that market is unpredictable. That’s why I also revealed that Elliott waves are needed not for entering position and predicting the future, but for the verification if the market is in impulsive or corrective wave right now. I was too self-confident using waves and forgot about other Trading Chaos tools. Now I started to use them all.
We have 1h time frame of the BINANCE:BTCUSDT chart. The price hit exactly my target for the long trade and started local retracement. Now we can see that it has already formed two up fractals and one downfractals. It means that we have the fractal signals for both sides, long and short. Looking at the higher time frames we can notice the multiple bearish divergeneces. That’s why in my opinion the long trades now are risky. I will remind you, divergence is the greatest predictor that the wave 5 has been ended. It is not the signal, just caution.
What about potential trades? We have the key fractal level $23564 . If the price will break this level I am going to open short with the stop-loss above the second up fractal $23893 . take profit I am going to place at $22575 . But we have to watch out carefully the moment when price approaches the crossover of the trendline support and resistance, we can see the reaction from there.
If the signal will be activated it is going to be under the red line of the Williams Alligator indicator. It confirms the signal’s validity. Awesome Oscillator has also shown us the short signal, which enhanced our thoughts.
Best regards, Ivan
________________________________________________________________________________________________
If you like my trade ideas, please smash the boost button to stimulate me make more quality analytics!