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Bitcoinforecast

The Bitcoin BottomThe chart above provides two bottom projections for the price of Bitcoin. These projections are based on what is called the cycle low multiple . This is a screenshot of the Bitcoin Cycle Low Multiple chart The cycle low multiple for Bitcoin is currently 2. This means that if prior cycle price action is predictive of future cycle price action, Bitcoin's current price (~$20k) is twice as high as it will be at the bottom of the current cycle (~$10k). Although historical price action does not guarantee future price action, history generally tends to repeat itself. With that said, both projections suggest that Bitcoin's price will fall to around $10,000 at some point between late October and late November. Both projections also suggest that this will be the bottom and that price will undergo recovery at the end of 2022 and into the beginning of 2023. In the future, I plan to write a longer post about my thoughts about Bitcoin, blockchain technology, non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized finance (De-Fi), and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), but I will share a few preliminary thoughts below. After much research, it is my strong belief that Bitcoin is posing a systemic risk to the fiat monetary system. Although Bitcoin presents new obstacles as a currency and as a store of wealth, its ability to facilitate transactions and store wealth independent of central banks' monetary systems will eventually draw the ire of these institutions. However, due to Bitcoin's decentralized nature, it will be virtually impossible for governments to stop. This will present a major challenge to the fiat monetary system. Be wary of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) as this could become central banks' means to more effectively stop their citizens from converting fiat currency into Bitcoin. What central banks fear most is when their citizens realize that, due to its perpetually increasing scarcity, Bitcoin preserves wealth over time, unlike any fiat currency. This attribute of Bitcoin combined with its completely decentralized nature makes it a monumental challenge to the fiat monetary system. Finally, one important note: If you choose to accumulate Bitcoin, be sure to use a secure hardware wallet. Do not trust any exchange or company to maintain custody of your Bitcoin on your behalf. Note: This is my first post done on a light background. I have learned that some people have eye strain when viewing charts with darker backgrounds. I would appreciate receiving comments below on whether people prefer a light or dark background on my charts, or if it does not matter. This is not financial advice. As always, anything can happen. Cryptocurrency involves significant risk and investors can lose a significant amount or all of their money.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by SpyMasterTrades
67
Bitcoin - Elliot Wave count updateHey all, here's the update on the previous post I made a few weeks ago. Prices bounced and found support on the technical objective of major Wave A , at 16,540$ . The current situation suggest a relief rally with a first medium term target at 28,300$ . We are now in a major Wave B , a corrective wave built in three minor waves. The top of this corrective wave can be around 39,500$ according to Fibonacci targets . (see chart with three minor waves A,B,C.) Invalidation of the count will be by a break of the previous bottom, at 16,540$ . See you in a few weeks to update the evolution
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Augustus1st
4
Bitcoin- Traders should be careful with buy trades nowPretty quickly my target of 21k was reached and, as explained on Monday's post, my trade closed in TP with 1:4 R:R. My optimism from now on is very reserved though... Indeed, we have a higher low in place and Bitcoin is well above 18k support, however, the last 3 days are marked by an almost 20% rise and a correction could follow soon. Technically speaking, above 21k is the resistance zone and from this zone, a correction could start. Looking at a 1-hour chart we can see a small consolidation that resembles a small pennant, so a new high is not out of the question, but, as I said, if you are not scalping the market, in my opinion, is not worth the risk of a buy trade. In conclusion, I will look to buy around 19k and if is not dropping there it can go "to the moon" without me:)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
23
Bitcoin Headed to $25kIts been a little while since we've had a chance to look at the price trajectory of Bitcoin. Ever since the implosion of FTX & Alameda, the markets were thrown in a flux, so we absconded from our charting duties for a little while. But now since the markets are back, we're going to make sure that we capture each and every single opportunity out there so that we miss nothing on the price action's ascent from this point going forward. Taking a Look at How We Forecasted Bitcoin Previously Below is a look at how we forecasted Bitcoin's price action before the SBF debacle: As we can see, we were expecting Bitcoin to at least touch the overhead horizontal resistance at $22.3k. However, that did not happen, as the price fell sharply downward after the news of FTX's bankruptcy shocked the entire cryptocurrency space. That event marked the 3rd black swan in just 2.5 years. Those events 1. Global Pandemic / Stock Market Crash in March 2020 2. Terra Ecosystem Collapse in May 2022 3. FTX + Alameda Collapse in November 2022 Despite these setbacks (and the fact that two of them came in the space of 6 months), the price of Bitcoin never dipped much further south than $16k. One could consider those two touches to be indicative of a 'double bottom' (chart pattern looks like a 'W'). This would be a fair assessment to make, since these two touches followed a long-term downtrend in price. Since then, we've seen the price action break through the former horizontal overhead resistance at $17.2k a few days ago on January 9th, 2023. From there, the price has been on a near vertical trajectory, smashing through one of the overhead horizontal resistance points that we outlined at the $18.8k-19k mark. This breakout was fueled by a 15%+ price burst over the past three days from the time of writing. This is especially remarkable when considering how little volatility was expressed in the price action. Where is Bitcoin's Price Going From Here? Now that we're all caught on what happened, let's see if we can't track down where the price of Bitcoin is going from here. In order to create this forecast, we're going to start by looking at the next resistance point ahead for the price. Resistance Doesn't Mean Guaranteed Stop As we noted prior, Bitcoin's price blew through two overhead horizontal resistance points as if they weren't even there. And when we look at the current price action for Bitcoin on the daily resolution, it doesn't appear as though this overhead resistance point will serve as a significant impediment to price action going forward. Momentum Indicators for Bitcoin For those that don't know, there are two different types of technical indicators that can be applied to any chart's price action in order to gather information for forecasts or understanding about how the price got to where it was at a given point in time. Librehash Balance of Power RSI Brief Review: 1. This indicator is built from the Balance of Power 2. We take the values of the Balance of Power, then apply the RSI extraction to it (14 periods) 3. From there, we smoothed the values over with the Exponential Moving Average (EMA; 9 Periods) 4. Then I threw on an ob/os (overbought / oversold) overlay on the chart, coded in the math logic to bound the range (similar to how RSI has a top range of 100 and lower bound of 0) 5. Took the average of the values over a certain period of time (manually; not via code), then calculated one standard deviation above and below that average to create the ob/os zones for the indicator 6. Added in logic to color the indicator red everytime a period ends with the BoP RSI beyond the ob/os range to show an "extreme" in the buy / sell pressure Main Purpose : To detect buy & sell pressure (very accurately) Below, is a look at what the BoP RSI is showing us on the daily resolution for Bitcoin: As we can see the BoP RSI reading is well above and beyond the RSI-like overlay, which means that the buy pressure is in the extreme range. Does This Mean That the Price is Guaranteed to Decrease From Here? No, not by any means. There are many traders that have the mistaken belief that when an oscillator shows measurements outside of the norms reflected by a bounded range (like the purple overlay we see in the chart above), that a reversal is bound to occur due to some sort of invisible market force that seeks 'equilibrium' above all. However, that is not true. While the indicator itself will likely return within the bounded RSI overlay range, that doesn't mean that the price will follow suit. Sometimes a cooldown in the indicator only means a reduction in the price's momentum (which is expected since this current rate of change in the price is unsustainable), not necessarily that the price will depreciate. With that being said, let's see what the other indicators are showing us. Librehash RSI(14) This is another custom indicator, just like the one before it. This is read just like the regular RSI(14). The only difference here is that the indicator itself (line) changes colors on the basis of whether the exponential moving average of the rate of change of the RSI(14) has surpassed / fell below a slower exponential moving average of the rate of change (if that's confusing, go ahead and check out how the indicator is defined on TradingView underneath the 'librehash' profile). Like the Balance of Power RSI, we can see that the RSI(14) has reached far into the OB (overbought) zone. The same can be ascertained of the Volatility RSI as well. Bitcoin on the Weekly Resolution Since we want to get a better gauge for what Bitcoin will do in the long-term, we're going to go ahead and shift over to the weekly resolution to see how the indicators are measuring Bitcoin's price action. Second Look at the Librehash RSI(14) As we can see, the RSI(14) has only recently flipped to 'green', indicating that the current rate of change in the price's momentum has begun to pick up (the indicator is coded to help detect true changes in the price action rather than getting caught in the mix by intermittent whipsaw action). There's obviously plenty of room for the RSI(14) to grow from where we're at on the weekly resolution, as the indicator is far below even coming close to breaching the 'overbought' range. Some technical analysis theory suggests that the RSI(14) does not dictate a true change in price momentum until it crosses above / below a reading of '50'. At the time of writing, its currently at 47.58 on our RSI(14). Let's take another look at Bitcoin so we can assess the last time its given us this measurement on the weekly resolution. Taking another look at the RSI(14), we can see that it has increased steadily from June 2022 to present (>6 months). radingview.com There have, of course, been periods when the RSI(14) dipped substantially. But overall, the RSI(14) has trended positively from June 2022 to where we are at present. This is notable because Bitcoin has not experienced a stretch of positive RSI(14) movement since March 2020 (following the first black swan we discussed above). Of course, we know what happened to Bitcoin's price trajectory from that point. As we can see, the price of Bitcoin increased by >1100% from that point going forward. What's different about this time, however, is that the RSI(14) has shown significant positive divergence over these past 6 months (this was not the case during the March 2020 pivot). What Does Positive Divergence Mean for the RSI? " Positive divergence indicates a move higher in the price of the asset is possible " In this case, we are indeed seeing positive divergence since the oscillator/indicator has trended upward as the price has declined. When such divergence occurs on the weekly resolution, we should take it seriously. The larger the time frame, the more more substantial the forecast as it pertains to the price trajectory going forward. Risk/Reward Target For this forecast, we're going to use the EMA indicators to give us a sense for where we should expect any notable resistance for the price moving forward. To do so, we plotted the EMA 12,26,50,100 & 200. Currently, the price has surpassed the EMA-12 (purple). It appears it'll blast through the EMA-26. Beyond that, the EMA-50 (gold) is hanging out around $25k. So we're going to plot that as our target for our R/R. We'll plot $18.8k as our stop out point since such a decline would warrant a strong reconsideration of our position. That's a potential +27.74% reward, with a risk of approximately -5% from where we're at currently. We can live with that R/R for sure (always risk management!) If we get stopped out, we'll just manage our position from there and decide whether we're going to elect to re-enter or not.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by librehash
$BTC BitcoinBTC Price Live Data The live Bitcoin price today is $20,861.23 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $36,611,886,617 USD. We update our BTC to USD price in real-time. Bitcoin is up 11.00% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1, with a live market cap of $401,815,530,604 USD. It has a circulating supply of 19,261,356 BTC coins and a max. supply of 21,000,000 BTC coins. What Is Bitcoin (BTC)? Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created, according to Nakamoto’s own words, to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.” Some concepts for a similar type of a decentralized electronic currency precede BTC, but Bitcoin holds the distinction of being the first-ever cryptocurrency to come into actual use. Who Are the Founders of Bitcoin? Bitcoin’s original inventor is known under a pseudonym, Satoshi Nakamoto. As of 2021, the true identity of the person — or organization — that is behind the alias remains unknown. On October 31, 2008, Nakamoto published Bitcoin’s whitepaper, which described in detail how a peer-to-peer, online currency could be implemented. They proposed to use a decentralized ledger of transactions packaged in batches (called “blocks”) and secured by cryptographic algorithms — the whole system would later be dubbed “blockchain.” Just two months later, on January 3, 2009, Nakamoto mined the first block on the Bitcoin network, known as the genesis block, thus launching the world’s first cryptocurrency. Bitcoin price was $0 when first introduced, and most Bitcoins were obtained via mining, which only required moderately powerful devices (e.g. PCs) and mining software. The first known Bitcoin commercial transaction occurred on May 22, 2010, when programmer Laszlo Hanyecz traded 10,000 Bitcoins for two pizzas. At Bitcoin price today in mid-September 2021, those pizzas would be worth an astonishing $478 million. This event is now known as “Bitcoin Pizza Day.” In July 2010, Bitcoin first started trading, with the Bitcoin price ranging from $0.0008 to $0.08 at that time. However, while Nakamoto was the original inventor of Bitcoin, as well as the author of its very first implementation, he handed the network alert key and control of the code repository to Gavin Andresen, who later became lead developer at the Bitcoin Foundation. Over the years a large number of people have contributed to improving the cryptocurrency’s software by patching vulnerabilities and adding new features. Bitcoin’s source code repository on GitHub lists more than 750 contributors, with some of the key ones being Wladimir J. van der Laan, Marco Falke, Pieter Wuille, Gavin Andresen, Jonas Schnelli and others. What Makes Bitcoin Unique? Bitcoin’s most unique advantage comes from the fact that it was the very first cryptocurrency to appear on the market. It has managed to create a global community and give birth to an entirely new industry of millions of enthusiasts who create, invest in, trade and use Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in their everyday lives. The emergence of the first cryptocurrency has created a conceptual and technological basis that subsequently inspired the development of thousands of competing projects. The entire cryptocurrency market — now worth more than $2 trillion — is based on the idea realized by Bitcoin: money that can be sent and received by anyone, anywhere in the world without reliance on trusted intermediaries, such as banks and financial services companies. Thanks to its pioneering nature, BTC remains at the top of this energetic market after over a decade of existence. Even after Bitcoin has lost its undisputed dominance, it remains the largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization that surpassed the $1 trillion mark in 2021, after Bitcoin price hit an all-time high of $64,863.10 on April 14, 2021. This is owing in large part to growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, and the ubiquitousness of platforms that provide use-cases for BTC: wallets, exchanges, payment services, online games and more.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
Bitcoin – last chance for bears!Hello! Every time when my analysis go wrong I am trying to analyse what I did wrong. There were 2 mistakes: 1) I was right too often last 3 months about the market and I decided that I cannot be wrong. Thank you market for the cold shower which expalined me this mistake. I should cancel my trade when it went wrong. 2) I placed limit order instead of observing the market because it filled during the night. I was scared that will not enter at the best entry point. As the same time I can praise myself for the excellent money management. This is the reason why this trade is not a disaster for me. Now I am going show you my new scenario, it’s always the same, but something was changed. Let’s take a look at the 1D time frame of the WHITEBIT:BTCUSDT chart. I changed the wave 4 top to the $21500 level when the FTX collapse crash started. I decided to do it because the previous movement was too ugly to be the impulsive wave. $15600 was the end of the beautiful wave 1 inside wave 5. Now I consider the wave 2 end, which was represented as a zigzag correction. If you are not still in short trade you can use the setup from the chart. The Bitcoin now is testing the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level. The majority of second waves reach this level before the reversal into wave 3. If the price will clearly break $20000 I am going to become the bull, because the bearish formation will be broken there. Promise you to become better. Please don’t hate me too much 🙂 ________________________________________________________________________________________________ If you like my trade ideas, please smash the boost button to stimulate me make more quality analytics!
Short
by Skyrexio
13
Bitcoin - a huge falling wedge is broken On the Bitcoin chart, on the daily timeframe, starting in June 2022, a pattern was formed - a falling wedge. To be honest, I don't respect technical analysis patterns and think that only some of them make any sense. The wedge pattern is among them. If you analyze it on history, this pattern has a high win rate on higher timeframes. I personally will not trade it, I have a different style of trading, quantitative trading (indicators), but it may be educational and interesting for you. Plus it is another prerequisite for continued growth. Bitcoin broke the falling wedge. At the same time, we see that the price closed above the upper boundary. So that is a positive signal. Closing below would be a negative signal. 🚀According to the rules, target = height = 42% ($26k) All my 6 years of trading experience, knowledge, developments, and indicators I share them here in ideas for free. In return I will ask you just follow me, like this post and leave a nice comment, it will allow me to move faster and make more useful content! 💚💚💚
by Yaroslav_Krasko
BTCUSD: A Breakout Finally! Will the Support Hold? | Jan. 13It looks like the bulls have finally managed to take control after a long sideways battle. In our previous analysis posted on CoinMarketCap Alexandria, we expected the price to rally to $18,600 upon flipping the resistance at $17,700. The price rallied to $18,800 this week and broke the $18,800 mark for the first time after November. In the 4-hour chart, we can see a clear breakout from the supply zone at $18,800 on Friday. It is crucial for the price to sustain over the supply zone for a continuation of the rally. We may see a minor pullback, as the RSI is pointing towards an overbought state at the time of writing. If the supply zone is sustained, expect a strong move to the next resistance at $19,750. However, if the resistance at $18,800 fails to hold, the price could tumble back down to $17,700. Traders should wait for a retest before taking a long position, to be on the safe side. The major points of interest are $18,800 and $19,750.
by CoinMarketCap
Bitcoin VS Psychology of a market cycleHello Traders and Investors. I hope you are doing well. Let's start with the local analysis. On the Bitcoin chart, we got a strong impulse growth, the price came to the level of $19k. And a lot of people have a question: "Has the bull run started? ". On the technical analysis side, there are two very strong resistance zones ahead. And a very important high is $21,473. Only after updating this high the downward structure will be broken and the road to $28k-32k will be opened. At the moment I see a huge positive in the market and that worries me a bit. I want to finish this idea by comparing the Bitcoin price and the cyclical market psychology chart. Take a look and compare, it will help make a long-term plan. All my 6 years of trading experience, knowledge, developments, and indicators I share them here in ideas for free. In return I will ask you just follow me, like this post and leave a nice comment, it will allow me to move faster and make more useful content! 💚💚💚
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Yaroslav_Krasko
2
BTC Short @ 19,000 10x leverageOver the last 52 days we've seen a +23% move upward from the local bottom. Just over the last week, we've seen an immaculate pump, but do we have the momentum to continue to move upwards or is this just a bear market rally or bull trap that is about to go bad? Crypto only focused individuals. I cannot tell you enough, crypto has a huge market correlation with much of what is going on in the world outside of the space and 2023 is going to be a dangerous year in the finance sector. We're only 13 days into the new year and I know the energy is at an all-time high from what's been going on, but take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Remember, while I can admit there is a small chance, we have not set a macro higher high in the last couple months, but we have been setting macro lower lows. Let's also consider that many of the key factors influencing the market are due to economic occurrences outside of the crypto space, like the looming global recession on the horizon and the central banking system's reform over the last 3 years. We could very well be witnessing the start of a blow-off top that will lead us into the sub 15,000 USDC area. Our momentum indicators on the 4-hour and 12-hour charts are at levels we last saw market corrections from, much higher in fact. I believe this is more of a matter of when a sell-off happens, not if. RSI is at 90... I don't even need to talk about that. Our VPVR targets are 16,800 and 16,000... Note: even though we're +20% up from the last macro bottom, which is the sign of a bull market, we're still well about the 200-day EMA on the Day chart and our current price confluence is razor thin, meaning pull backs could be much more intense because of the lack of established volume in a local perspective.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by WatsonsView
4