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Bitcoinfundamentals

Will BTC Rise if SPX Corrects? Short Answer: - For significant SPX drops: BTC will likely follow - For smaller SPX corrections: BTC might not Long Answer: There are currently two types of BTC holders – the believers and the speculators: - Believers (50%+ of market*): believe in BTC’s long-term potentials and most are not affected by market actions. - Speculators (50%- of market*): Affected by market actions, and drive price actions * more than 50% of the BTCs haven’t been moved for more than 1 year; more than 30% of BTCs haven’t been moved for more than 2 years. SPX drops significantly -> Generate fear in market -> Speculators doubt BTC will go to 0 -> panic selling -> BTC drops significantly However, for SPX corrections, most are not significant enough to incur fear in the market. And the impact likely wouldn’t flow to BTC speculators. Should one watch SPX closely to make BTC directional judgements? Our answer is no, because we don’t think BTC price actions would be highly correlated with small SPX corrections. We could still see a repeat of May 2019, when the SPX correction led to a large group of BTC shorts, who eventually got squeezed, ending in an 80%+ increase in BTC price. The question now: Will there be a COVID19 2nd wave SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH for SPX to drop 15%+? Do you think BTC is correlated with SPX movements? Are you bullish or bearish? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
31
Bitcoin Short-term Setup (2.5 R:R)With fundamentals still looking solid, we think it’s a good opportunity to enter a short-term trade or simply accumulate a portion into the long-term portfolio. Technicals: 1. RSI key support & hidden bullish divergence 2. Bottom of channel 3. We’ve broken and dropped back to key resistance1 since a year ago 4. Tight stop loss -> good risk reward setup Fundamentals: Most fundamentals remain in bullish trend, and some indicate a potential decrease in selling pressure these few days, which tend to be good entering opportunities. The way we like to see the market is “believing in the current trend until proven otherwise”. :) The biggest risk factor for us right now is still COVID19’s status. If China experiences another outbreak, we might see a repeat of March in smaller degree. What do you think about the idea? Do you agree or disagree? Share your thoughts and critics in comments!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
29
Bitcoin: Be Careful Now!Even though we do believe BTC has already bottomed out and the 3k marked the starting point of the current BTC bull cycle, we do want to point out the overly long sentiment in the market right now and the increasing risk of a long squeeze. With the Plus Token scam still having an estimated 50k – 70k BTC needing to distribute to the market, we are still facing several bumps in the BTC up run. Furthermore, most Chinese’s at least one-week-long Lunar New Year vacation starts next week. Lots of activities take place during this holiday and lots of them are costly (eg. giving out Hong Bao, cash wrapped in red envelopes to family members). It makes sense to cash out from the market. For longer term views, see the linked ideas below.
Short
by Phi-Deltalytics
23
BTC Long-Term Bottom Coming – Are you ready? Takeaway for Investors: Dollar cost averaging during the coming weeks has great risk-reward setups. Takeaway for Traders: The true bottom is closing up, and once we turn to the bull side, price will move quickly. Be ready when that break-out happens and execute with determination. (Eg. without proper mental preparation/discipline, it would be tough to catch 3k – 13k run.) Can we drop again to 3k? From this analysis alone, yes, we could. (And the transaction volume would likely rise higher in that case.) Why is the long-term bottom closing if 3k is possible? Fundamentally speaking, we’ve established a bottom already. Any further drop in price would likely be a speculative overreaction or whales manipulation attempting to accumulate at better prices. As long as the transaction volume is rising along with the price drop, bitcoin’s true value is holding and it is just a matter of time before we enter another bull cycle. If bitcoin truly becomes worthless, the transaction volume simply won’t hold. “The bottom is mostly likely in, anything lower will be just a wick in the macro view.” – Willy Woo (12/7) Different from the idea below, the transaction volume here used is measured in BTC not in $. This allows easier identification of volume bottoms. As a result, different bull cycles could appear in different scales given the fluctuation in BTC prices. Our point of interest here should be focused on when new volume bottoms establish, and when the momentum picks up from the bottom.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
27
BTC at Fundamental Long-Term SupportBitcoin is finally finding support from the transaction volume (a.k.a. BTC’s “corporate earning”) perspective. This is great news for long-term investors. What’s BTC transaction volume? It is the volume of transactions recorded on the BTC blockchain. This measures BTC’s payment utility value, store of value, and part of the speculative value when new users come into the market. This differs from the trading volume. For example, when Tom buys BTCUSD on Binance, the trade is only added to the trading volume, not the transaction volume. Data is sourced from blockchain.com(Quandl). Please support by following us or giving us a thumb-up!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Phi-Deltalytics
26
BTCUSD Depression is over! BTC start a new uptrend for 3 reasonsHello Everyone! It looks like bulls wake up from a long winter sleep and market prepares for hot summer growth. There were 4 scenarios in our last global Bitcoin price movement analysis. The coin followed 4th scenario and it was a very depressed and long journey. The 4th scenario is fully finished now and the price bounced from the bottom, indicators and market supply & demand point on trend reverse. BTC moves positively and confidently, while alts market goes crazy. What benefits can we get, while market transforms? Let's try to figure it out Let's discuss the reason why the forecast is positive: 1. At 1-day chart were formed two series of momentum growth candles which clearly starts 5 Elliott impulsive growth waves. You can see them on 7th and 17 of February. We forecast the next 10 days will be a small retracement with a subsequent growth. It can be a signal for a short position for the next week and for the long position in the mid term. Probably whales started open long position when first wave happened. The market did not go below (0) after upward movement to (1) which confirms wide audience accepted bullish mood and that is why we received upward movement to point (3) 2. Another interesting and important moment alts goes crazy and we have profits like it was on crypto hype time. This confirms a strong interest to crypto 3. We received really good and strong fundamentals: - Technology entrepreneur and Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that Bitcoin’s ( BTC ) structure is "quite brilliant" and that digital currency is “a far better way to transfer value than pieces of paper.” Musk made his remarks during an interview on advisory services firm ARK Invest’s podcast on February 19. The same mood is - Twitter CEO Using Tippin has launched a new Chrome and Firefox extension that allows users to send and receive Bitcoin ( BTC ) micro payments on Twitter via the Lightning Network. - JP Morgan launches its own cryptocurrency GPC with functions like XRP Should we expect a new uptrend? Bearish market ends soon and the most probable scenario is that we will have a long lateral movement. People should completely calm down about crypto and opportunistic players should left the market. Afterwards there obviously will be natural growth which will bring the interest back and there will be a much bigger hype than it was in 2017. If we look at BTC , we can see it broke resistance zone formed by EMA50 and psychologically important level of $4 000. ADX lines move upward, and it gives a signal that bulls become stronger. Moreover DMI intersections together with Stoch RSI , MACD and trend analysis tell us that the downtrend is going to be reversed. A new strong uptrend will start after finishing of 5 Elliott growth waves and subsequent ABC correction. However there is still probability that retracement will start a panic sell and the price will drop below $3 500 level again which will delay the forecast for several months. Conclusion Bitcoin price movement becomes positive and alts market replicates its mood. Supply and demand analysis confirms that buyers become more active and it can lead to a new uptrend. It does not matter will BTC be able to start confident upward movement now. The most important is that crypto survived and will develop further Please, press LIKE button to move it to the top trends on TradingView and share it with your friends. Leave your comments with questions and suggestions, we are always glad to discuss it with you! Once there will be 50 likes we will share a hedge strategy from the Premium channel here with a Short and a Long signal! Thank you for attention, have a good day and lucky trades Sincerely, SkyRock Signals team
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Skyrexio
3