Spike In $BTC June Futures VolumeThis spike in CME June BTC futures seems consistent with the previous idea that these are ideal accumulation levels.
Bitcoinfutures
The Fundamental Reason why bitcoin wont go down 7500There is a very basic reason why bitcoin wont go down to 7500k. That is volume. least we forget what makes bitcoin so popular is its essential scarcity in supply. To date there is just 16.846 million bitcoins in circulations and almost 40% of those belong to 1000 people, commonly known as whales. Now these whales have been around for a long time, and in that time, bitcoin has faced countless threats of annihilation but it still stands today. So if someone didnt cash out when bitcoin hit 20k there is no way they would cash out when it hits 8k. These guys are here to stay.
Now that leaves us with 60% or roughly 10.1 million in the hands of the common investors. The investors who run for the hills with the first sight of despair and sell like its black friday! Now most of them jumped on the bitcoin wagon in late November and early December, that is when prices started going sky high and ever since they have been jittery at best. Social media and FUD swings their moods like a teenager on her periods, and flicky fingers are always ready to run at the first shout of regulation and taxes. Now, the good news is most of them have been swung out of the whole crypto sphere in the last month of crypto bloodbath, and if you look at the trading volumes, that 10.1 million bitcoin has already been traded away.
Another aspects to remember is Bitcoin futures have already come in to play, which significantly legitimates its position, and this is something which is extremely difficult to do, on exchanges like CBOE and CME where some of the biggest investors in the world trade. It is also equally difficult to remove an item from the exchanges once its been implemented, especially one which is a cash cow like bitcoin. So rest assured and trade happy because Bitcoin by enlarge is here to stay, even if all the other coins burn up in smokes.
The BTC1! Futures look short!Quick short term update on the CME BTC1! (Futures) market.
We can see a magnificent cup and handle being painted, except it is upside down, also deadly is the h&s hidden within this cup. This gives us a high probability that the market will turn south should the market continue on this volume.
Support for Bitcoin is still at $9k to $10k on the shorter term and we can expect quite a lot of volatility should prices drop below $9k.
Weis should be announcing their crypto ratings in a few hours from now, lets be patient and wait for the market to show us the way.
Feel free to come chat to the market Wizards for free .
Institutional Bitcoin price manipulation CBOE futures I’ve drawn on this chart to show you the big fall from the initial listing of the first CBOE futures contract for Bitcoin (XBT/F8) until it’s expiry date (yesterday). From $17,285 on 11 Dec (first full day of trading) all the way down to the contract’s settlement at $11,055 yesterday (a fall of 36%).
In the days following Dec 11 Bitcoin recorded an all-time high before beginning said fall. Also, note trend line prior to Dec 11 showing a 4-week rally which saw Bitcoin rise from around $5600.
Is it possible that institutional investors pumped Bitcoin the month prior to listing the first futures contract, and for the few days immediately after which saw Bitcoin hit an all time high? Such a sustained rally with such amazing gains for all entices lots and lots of new investors and it is my estimation that more went long than short on those futures contracts.
Is it a possible that following this many tactical sell-offs/dumps from said institutional investors resulted in the 36% fall and subsequently a WIN FOR CBOE? In my opinion, YES YES YES! Institutional money and power is endless!
The wall I have arrived at, however, is what comes next. Is the price the lowest they can drive it? And so, will the expiry of the XBT/G8 contract on Feb 14 see those who go long winners? Or in terms outside of the contract, those who buy actual Bitcoin now and hold until contract expiry?
…Or is it nothing to do with the futures contracts at all?
CME futures volumeSmart investors boughthe dip. Did you?
After they went short and made good money after the rally was exhausted, but now they are getting in on the long side.
Bitcoin 2018 WarningFollowing a bullish 2017, we have a POTENTIAL correction setting up in 2018.
Whilst Bitcoin long-term is bullish we need to be aware that a breaking of the Head & shoulders Neckline may precipitate a severe sell-off.
To play this we look at both sides of the coin:
LONGS: Needs to convincingly stay above the Resistance Levels
SHORTS: Breaks the neckline of the Head & Shoulders and stays under
$BTC Futures Short BurstBitcoin Futures had a huge positive correlation for its entry point and now the correlation seems negative. This is due to an after entry crash. Also people, aren't sure about this adaptation of $BTC. However, given the recent correlations in prices, there will be some small demand for Bitcoin Futures and it is expected to go up in value the next few weeks. Bitcoin in itself is more investible in general, especially given that you own the crypto you are holding instead of doing bets on prices. However, internationally $BTC Futures will go slightly up in value for a short time period.
XBTUSD BTCUSD Conventional Charting ForecastCurrently holding on the 100 MA on the 240 min. chart, possible right ear sidewinder setting up. Stoch RSI turning up off the bottom, MACD getting ready to cross and SQZMOM trending up. Given confirmation of those indicators, if the sidewinder plays out we will see 25K+ BTC by Dec 31. Shorts beware.
BTC futures open path to Big ShortThe crypto currency boom opened a new chapter on Monday with the start of trading bitcoin futures on the CBOE Chicago Stock Exchange. The price for a contract with the delivery in January started from $15.460, but soon it soared to almost $ 19,000. The volume of contracts almost reached 3000 at the time of writing the article.
The pricing of futures proved to be too erratic and arbitrage-rich. CBOE data show that with the increase in time of settlement, the settlement price first grows to $ 18,000, and then falls to $16,400, while the futures price remains virtually unchanged for the February and March contracts. In fact, the market expects a pullback of the price from about 20,000 to $ 16,000 in January-February, before bitcoin may start to rally again.
According to the data it is clear that the premium for the 3-month contract in March reached $ 2,670. In essence, this means that an investor can borrow money, buy a crypto currency, sell a three-month futures at $19,100 and take profit of $ 2,670 now, repay the loan in three months. However, the availability of arbitrage opportunities is likely due to low liquidity on the stock exchange. Since the launch of the auction, only 50 of 3-month contracts have been made, and the premium will likely decline in the future.
Large US banks, such as JPMorgan Chase & Co and Citigroup Inc. are yet to decide on the approval of transactions related to bitcoin futures. This is explained by the fact that the status of the cryptocurrency is not clear, the demand of institutional investors is small, and the impact on reputation in the event that the bubble bursts can be very unpleasant. However, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that it will allow customers to conduct such transactions, but each case will be considered individually.
Despite the launch of futures trading, Central Bank executives continue to criticize cryptos. The head of the New Zealand Central Bank said on Sunday that bitcoin is a classic bubble, and it is impossible to predict the time of its life. Nevertheless, the regulators' concern is probably connected not with threats of financial stability, but with the reputation of the Central Bank as a supervisory authority that must protect unqualified investors from risky investments. Moreover already 40% of the volume of all bitcoins are only in 1000 hands, so while they are interested in the growth and maintenance of the stability of the crypto currency, a strong collapse is unlikely.
Tightening cycle
This week, decisions on monetary policy should be taken by Central Banks of the four leading economies of the world - the ECB, the Fed, the Bank of England and the Swiss Central Bank. Hints in policy tightening suggests that regulators saw signs of a comprehensive rally in the global economy which should be smoothed out with the hikes in the borrowing costs.
The dollar is trading with minor loss, the largest losses from the major currency pairs are carried by GBPUSD, continuing the steep decline started on Friday. Bounced from the 1.35 level last week, the pair declined to 1.3350, as a discord surfaced again in the negotiations between Brussels and London on the divorce deal. Nevertheless, the downward movement could be dictated by the need to fix profits and the news on progress in talks will allow the pair to resume the offensive again.
Arthur Idiatulin
BTC targeting $18.000 again.Bitcoin futures are now available for trading under the ticker symbol "XBT" on the CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE). The Bitcoin value rose on the opening of CBOE’s futures markets and the trading volume immediately spiked at precisely 23:00 UTC when the futures trading opened. At the time of writing the Bitcoin price is trading at $16,730, representing a gain of more than 20% in the last 24 hours. CBOE launched three futures contracts, with the settlement price being bitcoin’s trading price on January 1st, February 1st and March 1st, respectably. January is trading at $17.700 with 2.700 contracts traded, while the February and March contracts are traded on level $19.100, but with only a fee contracts exchanged hands. The massive amount of orders caused the CBOE website to perform slower than usual, unable to handle the massive amount of traffic. Futures would probably help stabilize the price of Bitcoin, as well as bring closer to adoption by Wall Street. We may even see approval for future products like a bitcoin ETF. For now spot is trading lower then JAN futures, if we knew divergence would occur, the play would be to buy actual and sell futures short. BTC its trading closer to previous high at $18.100 across major exchanges this is an important mark to watch.
BTC - Short-Term Double Top?
As everyone is jumping on the BTC bandwagon now and will be through 2018, I'm beginning to work full-time to understand the best ways we can make the most out of this epidemic. One part of this is the TA & FA discussion and so here is my first post!
In the 30min view, it seems we have created two tops on 02/12 at 01:00 and 09:00 indicating we have a rising wedge (bearish pattern!). After the sell-off which started on 29/11 this indicates there is some pressure on the BTC price after a bull run with such high velocity. This could be forming a double top here before falling further.
On the other hand, there is a continued demand increase for BTC from new investors (Coinbase are breaking even more records for daily registered users!) and also Bicoin Futures have just been announced to open on 16/12. The demand is so crazy and the exposure that it's getting is crazy. A lot of people are asking me at work about BTC and how to invest and that's when you know this is becoming general knowledge!
Personally, I think the increase in demand is going to support the price. The reversal on 30/12 seems to be because of the high demand and Bitcoin Futures and I'm expecting this to carry BTC past the resistance at $11,300 and continue the bull trend. So here's my plan. If it does break resistance, I will be adding to my position and aiming for the 1.618 Fib and then planning the next move. If it doesn't break, then I will be aiming for 0.5-0.382 Fib to buy more as I believe the demand will support the BTC price and we may enter a short term consolidation phase.
Thanks for reading! Please comment with your thoughts and feedback!
BTC in 12,600–15,500 USD by CME adoption (December 11th)Trend predictions based on current market conditions as of November 29th. Using a logarithmic y-axis scale.
Strong growth channel #2 (light green parallel channel) indicates that the price of bitcoin will be in the range of 12,600–15,500 USD by December 10th–11th right around the time of adoption into bitcoin futures trading on the CME. The average price of that range falls on ~14,000 USD for nearing that date. This is assuming no massive sell offs, and following the current strong bullish market growth channel.
Growth channel #1 as the baseline trend that is overlaid (darker green channel) suggests a similar maximum price range, around 13,000 USD, and an absolute minimum dip around 8,000 USD. This is a counter prediction to the assumption above, because this suggests that a big sell off is actually possible, though from what I've seen is unlikely. It would likely rebound shortly after anyway back to the >10k range after the CME adoption.
In short, this gives predictions for the price of bitcoin on December 10th-11th at between 12,600 and 15,500 USD. With a broader range of 8,000 to 15,500 at 95% confidence.
This time it's different. No, it's a glorious bubble!You can feel it in the air! The delusion is magnificent, the hope is higher than ever. Nothing can go wrong right? It cant crash, BTC will take over the world! It's a new paradigm! Only upwards from here, we have exceeded all expectations and the chart screams UP UP and UP!!
If you don't want to lose your shirt, this is the time to stay calm. This is where you need to be cynical and shut everything out. Maybe take 30 minutes and just stare at the chart. This time it aint different, and it never will be.
Fundamental
Bitcoin has jumped higher then I expected! Probably higher then you expected as well.
It's been a crazy year and we who have been here since the last bubble are all rich now.
The amount of new people entering is astonishing! Dumb money is being poured into the crypto space, and the majority of it is entering Bitcoin in this historical bubble.
Why do I call it dumb money? Because it's money that is entering on hype and FOMO. Money that didnt buy when the media phase started, and certantly not when Bitcoin was in the shadows.
It's money that has been to afraid to enter the market because it didnt believe in the tech. But now that it hears "everybody" else is making big bucks on Bitcoin it wants in.
Is it money that is intented to be used on the underlying asset? No. It's pure speculation and greed. It's money that dont have an exit strategy, it just wants to be included. A reciepe for disaster.
Let's take a look at the fundamentals and ask ourself, what is the difference now from 1 year ago?
We have more people using BTC, obviously, but it's mostly used on speculation.
Now we don't have 1 Bitcoin anymore, we have 4 with huge marketcaps. The scaling saga is maybe more positive now then it was 1 year ago, but it's a big maybe.
Lightning network is a very promising project and I have big faith in it, however, at this stage it is barely a working product.
Big blocks was a solution for today, but far from sustainable, and fundamentally it has done BIG damage to Bitcoin Core.
Is the ordinary financial world collapsing? Do you have problems paying for a loaf of bread with dollars (or have to grossly overpay)?
The world may be in terrible shape, but currently, the economic shape is fantastic!
If this reality changes, we have a different picture, but until then Bitcoin aint worth 10 grand! I rather take the fiat for now, MUCH easier to spend ;)
And oh.. We have futures launch, which is a big driver for the hype we are seeing. Insititutional money will enter the Bitcoin market. But is it really a positive? First of, its more likely then not that it has already entered and a big possibility that the money coming in will be used to make Bitcoin go down, not up.
On the other hand, its not even a guarantee that the futures will launch. And for the first time I have reached the maximum amount of charachters so you need to research that yourself :)
Technical
We have a classic bubble going on, and I believe we are in the final stage! I can just feel it in my bones. Gravity left for vacation, but a vacation dont last forever, and when vacation is over, harder times are ahead.
So is this the top? I have no idea. It could very well go above 10k, it could go 11.5k, but if it goes above 12-13k I have made a mistake and need to take the consequences.
Because I am shorting here at 9700 USD. I am hodling that position all the way up to 12k if that's what it takes. It's just a too good number to pass up this trade right now.
Earlier today at 9490 USD I sold every bit of Bitcoin I had left. I am now 50% alts and 50% cash. Looking to reinvest in Bitcoin in the 3-5k-5k area, and possibly hold short until 5100 USD!
I have been wrong on Bitcoin TA already through this bubble, but to be fair, so has a big majority of traders in this space.
Bitcoin have just shattered rules and destroyed rational predictions.
Numbers
Short - 9700 USD
Buy - 5100 USD
Stop Loss - 12k-13k range
