BITCOIN at 20000 USD. Possible. Let's see why.BITCOIN at 20000 USD.
Possible. Let's see why.
Current situation. After 10k we have a tracking already foreseen at 9.5k, but be careful there are still positive signs and until the price drops below 8k I don't see any reversal problems.
1. The level of trust towards btc is above average, volumes still persistent and we are always in the up trend channel. In short, the tracing was expected and should not override any fear, on the contrary, after halving it is organic to expect an increase in the price.
2. Killer Whales in action. Liquidity today is on the rise again although not yet in the system and therefore not marked in the indices. Today, approximately 1,000M USD have been issued, ready to push the Bitcoin system up.
3. Mining and Infrastructure. Hardware costs and competition among miners have increased and from the point of view of infrastructure and mining, with the halving of Fees, the increase in the value of bitcoin is an obligatory step for the survival of the network itself.
4. ASIC SHA-256. The miners used for BTC are also suitable for undermining BCH, which has already passed halving recently and which today has a profitability of about 11USD / day per single mining unit against the USD 5.4 / day which would have the same machine used for bitcoin after halving. This means that all miners with electrical operating costs above 0.04 USD / Kw would have an incentive to switch from BTC mining to that of BCH which, with the same performance of mining units, would have 48% higher yields. in fact with the halving of the Fees and calculating the operating and energy costs it would be difficult for 80% of the mining farms that operate at higher costs to continue to mine bitcoins. Factor that would decrease the performance of the entire network. - So by defending the price, you defend the industry and protect Bitcoin.
5. Global crisis and financial market. Without liquidity injections by banks and governments it is collapsing. In a landscape where traditional finance has shown all its weaknesses and sailing towards a deep recession, bitcoin and gold have shown astounding resilience. Clear sign that it configures them as unique financial instruments especially in this moment of serious crisis.
So why choose to invest in bitcoin? For us Italians, the simplest comparison to understand the moment of bitcoin is the following. In the 70s, apartments were bought, today investments are made in bitcoin and many more have already understood this.
I think, also given the sudden recovery from the afterlife after the collapse due to the COVID, that the increase in the value of bitcoin to 14k / 20k in the near future is more than likely. Obviously there will be a lot of resistance and several falls, but the signs of recovery still seem clear.
Bitcoin represents the new economic and financial freedom and must be supported and protected, because it is a gift for all of us slaves of strong powers and traditional finance, I remind you that it was donated to humanity precisely to counter the financial disaster due to the collapse triggered by sub prime mortgages in 2006 that cost billions of losses, millions of unemployed and no culprits.
Bitcoinhalving
Bitcoin Selling Off! And Other Irrelevant Bearish Banter.Bitcoin retraces out of the 9564 to 10,168 resistance zone, but no reason to over react. The resistance zone that has been on my charts for months is a location that favors such a move, and is why we have been reducing our risk by taking partial profits at predetermined targets (8K and 9750). The mistake to avoid here is to get confused by all the bearish hype that will follow (especially the ones who are focused on smaller time frames). The structure of the broader trend is still bullish and in this video I will explain why.
When there is a retrace within a bullish trend, what should you be doing? Looking for buying opportunities. Although Bitcoin has yet to produce a new buy signal, we view this as a chance to add back to our long from 5750 (since we now only have 1/3 of the position left) Where are the inflection points? 8500 which was a previous resistance and 7695 which is the key support for the current broader bullish structure. AS LONG AS 7695 is not compromised, Bitcoin is likely to reverse higher, and at least attempt to take out the 10,200 area high. This may take a week or so to play out, but BASED on the price structure and price action, this is the higher probability scenario.
What needs to change in order for our outlook to go back to neutral from bullish? IF price takes out 7695 and closes lower. That is the evidence required by our long only swing trade strategy to adjust our expectations. Like I remind our followers regularly, you can't go into this with any kind of opinion, especially for short term timing. The market tells us what to think, and we simply listen to it, not "experts", news, or other obsolete information. What can the next buying opportunity look like? A failed low off of the 8K area would be a very compelling scenario for us to add to our long. Overall, this move does not qualify for a trend change on the TIME FRAME we evaluate. Momentum may be bearish, but that is not the same as the trend. Keeping these variables as separate and distinct pieces of information will help you to better anticipate coming opportunities.
This Is Why The Bitcoin Is Going To Hit $300K After HalveningHi friends hope you are well. Today I'll show you the most significant move by the Bitcoin that can lead it to hit 300K. But before that I would like to show you some developments on the small time charts because these moves are interconnected with the biggest move that I'm expecting in the next one or two years.
The bull flags on daily chart:
As in my last article we have observed that the leading cryptocurrency is aggressively forming a different bull flag on the daily char. And in previous post we were expecting the 3rd bull flag. At that time the candlesticks were being consolidated to form the next bull flag. And now we can see that the priceline has moved up and now it is confirmed that the third bull flag has been formed. Now after reaching the $10,000 level the price action may consolidate at this level to form the next bull flag or it will move a little bit more up and then consolidate.
The Bitcoin may re-test the resistance block as support:
We have already seen that on the daily chart the priceline was trying to breakout the resistance block from $9,000 to $9500 level. This is the most strongest support and resistance block that the Bitcoin could breakout since after the drop off Dec 2017. Once in the month of February 2020 we have witnessed that a Bitcoin broke out this resistance block. After breaking out this resistance block the Priceline tried to retest previous resistance as support but this re-test was unsuccessful and the priceline dropped down all the way up to $4000. Now again the priceline is breaking out this resistance level. The current candlestick is opened above this block. And once the complete candlestick will be opened and closed above this bock like the priceline did this in the month of February then the first step of the breakout will be confirmed. But the final confirmation for breakout will be received when price action of BTC will retest this previous resistance as support and after a successful retest priceline will be moved up from here.
Bitcoin is likely to be failed in breaking out the up channel resistance:
On the daily chart the priceline has formed an up channel. That was started from 13th of March 2020. And this time the price action of BTC is trying to hit hard to break out the resistance of this channel. At this time we have the 3rd candlestick that is hitting at the resistance to have a breakout. Before this we had candlestick of 30th April that was reached up to $9,485 at the resistance of the channel for the breakout. Then the price action reached at $10,000 level on 7th and 8th May 2020. And now there was a strong hope that the priceline will break out the resistance. But again the price action is likely to be consolidated at this level. Now there are two possibilities that the priceline may form a bull flag at this level and move up to break out the resistance or move down again to re-test the support of this channel that is almost at $8,500.
This combination of indicators can give us best signal for bearish move:
As in my previous post I told you that I am using the combination of three indicators to watch the bullish and bearish trend of BTC on daily chart.
1st: Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator.
2nd: MACD custom indicator multiple time frame , this is the same MACD indicators that we use normally but this indicator shows the buying and sell signals with crosses.
3rd: Stochastic indicator.
Ater placing these three indicators I came to know that since October 2019 the Bitcoin is following a certain pattern for the correction rally or bearish move.The Vervorrt heikin-ashi long-term candlestick oscillator is a powerful indicator that shows whether the priceline is in bullish or bearish trend . When it turns green it means that we are in bullish trend and when it turns in red color then it means that we are in bearish trend . Now after observing closer the daily chart it can be seen that whenever this vervoort indicator turns green then the MACD indicator 1st gives the sell signal and then again it gives buy signal and again it gives sell signal and on this third sell signal if the stochastic also gives the bear cross then the leading cryptocurrency turns bearish and starts the bearish move. It can be witnessed form 24th of October to 25th of November 2019. Then from 23rd of Jan up to 13th of March 2020. And if we see the current situation then the vervoort is again in green color and giving indication that we are in bullish trend , and the MACD has given a sell signal and after that we have received the buying signal and at this time the MACD has turned weak bullish so its mean that it is turning bearish. Once it will give a complete sell signal with stochastic bear cross then we can expect that the BTC will again repeat the same move and start a bearish rally.
The down channel on long term:
On the long term weekly chart the Bitcoin has formed a down channel and at this time the price action of BTC is trying to breakout the resistance of this channel. Once the bearish move will be started then the Bitcoin can retest the 100 simple moving average support at $7100, or the 200 simple moving average support is at $5700. But in my opinion if the price action will be dropped from here then first it will retest the support of an up channel that has been formed on the daily chart and that support is around at $8500 once that support will be broken down then we can expect the further downward move upto 100 SMA and then 200 simple moving average on the weekly chart.
The most significant signal is going to be appeared soon that can lead the BTC price to 300K:
Now I want to show you the most significant signal that is going to be appeared after the Bitcoin halving that can lead the BTC price upto $30000. For better understanding we need to see the history of this signal so let's move back to the first Bitcoin halving event in 2012.
The Bitcoin halvening 2012:
For this purpose I have used long term weekly chart and placed the four simple moving averages with the time period of 25, 50, 100, and 200. In 2012 the 100 and 200 simple moving averages were not available therefore we will find this signal using only 25 and 50 SMAs, then we can see that just before the Bitcoin halving the 25 simple moving average form the golden cross with 50 simple moving average then after the Bitcoin halving we had the strong supports these two SMAs. Further in July 2013 the 100 simple moving average was also appeared below the 25 and 50 simple moving averages. Here we had a complete a opened alligator mouth formed by these three simple moving averages. And all these SMAs lifted the price action up very aggressively and the Bitcoin started more than 10000% bullish rally and produced ROI (return on investment) with 1 : 10K ratio within one year.
The Bitcoin halvening 2016:
Now let's move forward to the next halvening event in the year of 2016. Then we can see that just before the halvening the simple moving averages formed an opened alligator’s mouth for forming goden crosses with each other, as we can see that the 200 smple moving average was below all other simple moving averages then 100 moving average was above 200 moving average, then the 50 SMA was above the 100 SMA and the smallest moving average with the time period of 25 was above all four SMAs. And after halvening all these simple moving averages lifted the Bitcoin up very aggressively and the price line of BTC produced more than 3000% return on investment ratio within one and a half year.
The Bitcoin halvening 2020:
Now when almost three days are left in the 2020 halvening event then we can observe that almost an opened alligator mouth by these four simple moving averages is formed. Only the golden cross between 25 and 50 moving averages is due. Once the smallest moving average with the time period of 25 will cross up the 50 simple moving average then we will have the order of these moving averages like 25 simple moving average above all then we will have the 50 SMA below the 25 after that we will have the 100 simple moving average below 50 and the 200 SMA will be below all other SMAs. Then a complete opened alligator mouth will be formed and after completion of this alligator mouth we can expect a really very powerful bullish rally that can be continued for next two years. If we compare the ROI ratio that was produced in the after 2016 halvening then it is 70% less than the ROI ratio that was produced after the halvening of 2012. As we have seen that in 2012 the return on investment ratio was more than 10000%.
Now in order have an estimate the next ROI ratio we can expect 70% less ROI than the ROI after halvening of 2016. And in my point of view that will be very conservative approach. And in this way the next return on investment ratio would be e 1000%. Its mean that Bitcoin can easily hit $100,000. But it is also possible that the Bitcoin will produce up to 3000% rally as it has already produced after the previous halvening of 2016.
And it this time it will be difficult for the moving averages to form a complete opened alligator mouth before the halving event. Because one candlestick is representing one week and there are only approximately 3 days are left in the next halving event. However it doesn't matter whether this alligator mouth will be oepened before the halvening or after. Whenever it will be formed it will produce a very powerful gleefully that can be continued for atleast next two years.
Conclusion:
On the daily time period chart if the price line of BTC will not break out the up channel and we will receive strong bearish signal by the MACD indicator then there are strong chances that the price action may start a correction rally, however on the long term the Bitcoin will be remain bullish and after having event it can turn more strong bullish.
The market pullback again.Daily analysis-2020/05/09.2ndThe market pullback again as Bitcoin fell sharply, and BCH continued to be strong. In the 1-hour level k-line chart, the volume fell below the long-term average line and fell below the support $9700. MACD has entered below the zero axis, while the 4-hour line has shown signs of top divergence, meaning that short-term will face adjustments, pay attention to 9400 below -Line support and it is recommended to absorb dips.
ETH fell again. In the 1-hour trend, the MACD index is glued near the zero axis and a dead cross appears again. It is repeatedly suppressed by long energy. Pay attention to the 210 position and leave when it is broken.
The Days of Futures Halting Bitcoin From Passing $1 Trillion.The Days of Futures Halting Bitcoin From Passing $1 Trillion Are Seemingly Over Read Full News Here
BTCUSD - I don't know!BTC about to meet resistances.
RSI also looks as if it changed direction in the bigger picture.
RSI trendlines sometimes do work and there is a resistance at these levels.
I am expecting a spike to 11800$ in the next 72 hours to fill the GBTC gap. And from there, it's time for a correction with the Halving Hype hopefully ending.
To get a bigger correction the Daily Candles shall not close above 10158$ (trendline closes) to be able to take a short in the next days.
At the end of the day, noone knows what Bitcoin does.
BTC/USD Pre-halving Rally Hits $10k
Bitcoin price breached the $10,000 hurdle but failed to sustain gains towards $10,100.
Bitcoin halving volatility set to heighten over the weekend session; retest of $9,000 seems possible.
Bitcoin price soared to highs above $10,000 for the first time since February. The impressive surge occurred following a sustained breakout above $9,500. In just two engulfing candles, the bulls had breached the $10,000 zone. A new May high has been achieved at $10,087 but BTC/USD said goodbye to the levels above $10,000 as fast as it reached there. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $9,912 amid a building bearish trend supported by the desire by the sellers to revenge.
Bitcoin Halving Is Nigh
Bitcoin is set to undergo a mining reward halving. The event takes place every four years and sees mining rewards given to miners reduced by half. This year’s halving will take place in just three days and investors across the border want to be ready for the piece of cake following the halving as its impact is predicted to ted culminate in a price rally. The surge to $10,000 during the Asian hours on Friday can be attributed to pre-halving volatility created by increased network activity.
Bitcoin Price Technical Picture
BTC/USD technical picture turned bearish as soon as it hit highs slightly above $10,000. The RSI is also retreating from the overbought and hints to a developing bearish trend. The volume has decreased as investors wait for Bitcoin to confirm the breakout past $10,000. However, if support at $9,800 fails to hold, Bitcoin could dive lower to test $9,000. The range between $9,000 and $8,500 has a higher concentration of buyers and if tested, Bitcoin could also bounce back upwards. The major support remains at $8,400.
Bitcoin Intraday Levels
Spot rate: $9,912
Relative change: -95
Percentage change: -0.95%
Trend: Bearish
Volatility: Low
BTC/USD Mooning To $10,000 Ahead Of The Halving In The Offing
Bitcoin price spikes above $9,300 in readiness for a pre-halving rally to $10,000.
As the 50-day SMA closed the gap toward 200-day SMA, incoming bullish momentum could be massive.
After plummeting to $8,400 following the breakout that almost tested $9,500, Bitcoin bulls have kept their interest in check. The desire to stick on the market mainly fueled by the halving in four days. Intriguingly, the price has recovered to settle above $9,000. Moreover, bulls are extending the action above $9,300 towards the end of the Asian session on Thursday.
A Pre-halving rally to $10,000?
As halving draws nigh, a pre-halving rally is on the table. Investors joining the market for a post-halving rally could easily push Bitcoin price above $9,500. However, BTC/USD has the potential to top $10,000 by the end of this weekend.
Bitcoin price technical picture
Bitcoin price is teetering at $9,334 at the time of writing. Its immediate upside is supported by the short term accelerated trendline (broken line). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has made it back into the overbought region (above 70). This move would continue to encourage more buyers to join the market as their confidence grows. A break past the key hurdle at $9,400 could also boost the price above $9,500.
On the other hand, the 50-day SMA is closing the gap between the 200-day SMA to show that bullish power is coming and could be a force to be reckoned with. On the flipside, a breakout fails and Bitcoin corrects lower, support to be embraced lies at $8,800, $8,400, the 200-day SMA at $8,000 (aided by the 61.8% Fibo) and the 50-day SMA currently at $7,245.
Bitcoin Intraday Key Levels
Spot rate: $9,334
Relative change: 177
Percentage change: 1.91%
Trend: Bullish
Volatility: Expanding
Is Bitcoin Breaking Out? Bitcoin seems to have consolidated the recent rise and appears ready to test the key resistance trendline directly above. 2 hour chart shows MACD positive, Ichimoku positive, no apparent volume resistance on the VPVR indicator, and price action rallying hard. Today may see us pop through the trendline and then come back to settle on it looking for support as we approach the halving. Exciting times. Don't FOMO. Trade the technicals.
XBTUSD: Still ranging Nothing happens to BTC - we're still ranging into Halving.
Have bids in the same place, around ~$8550. If we go north - I'll short it manually.
If you believe that we will continue to move in this range for some time, you can try to short volatility like I do.
Hit the "LIKE" button and follow to support, thank you.
Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research.
Bitcoin retests Log Support 9500. Path to $1500 BitcoinSorry I haven't posted in a while. I had many of my trades banned by tradingview and it pissed me off. This one I needed to share.
Bitcoin recently lost it's log channel trend. This was a trend that had been respected for 7 years. Losing this channel was a very bearish signal IMO. Although I am MASSIVELY BULLISH on bitcoin in the long term, I believe we are on course for a multiple year bear market which will see bitcoin bottom out somewhere between $900-$1800.
On my twitter account, I posted multiple warnings in this area and I believe we have successfully retested this broken trend. However, this is a very critical time for Bitcoin. Our path to 50-100k bitcoin in the foreseeable future lies here.
Bullish
If we can reclaim this log channel, this would be a huge shakeout from losing this log trend and reclaiming it would be massively bullish. I would want to see 2 closes in the log channel for confirmation to be bullish again.
Another lesser bullish scenario would be to continually retest this channel over the coming weeks, knocking on this resistance line, makes it primed to break into the channel again. But this scenario still leaves the possibility of a dump. It would be slightly more bullish than bearish.
Bearish
This is the scenario I am leaning towards. Retesting this log channel was textbook of losing a major trend and having a successful retest. I think $9500 will not be seen for many years to come. Now that we have lost this channel, I believe we should see either a) A sharp sell off for the next year or 2 OR b) A sideways consolidation between a range (3k-6k) before a breakdown and starting a new bull trend. I think we are more likely to see a sharper sell off into the next year or 2 and then a bottoming out, and the start of a new bull channel where bitcoin can begin it's real bull market.
Bitcoin 3rd Halving: How to react?While bitcoin is still ranging, I would like to speculate what to expect from the approaching halving of the block reward event and how it was last time.
November 28, 2012
The first Bitcoin halving takes place to reduce mining rewards to 25 BTC
As you can see on the chart below bitcoin price experienced two falls (40% and 25%) prior to date. After the Halving BTC didn't fall that deep and went straight up after 50 days.
July 9, 2016
Second halving takes mining reward down to 12.5 BTC.
Two months prior to halving, Bitcoin managed to grow by 75% and fall by 23%. And after 22 days from the event's date, it falls 30%. After that, the price only climbed up.
May 12, 2020
About year to date, the price was in some sort of big channel and sharply dropped by ~57% due to coronavirus outbreak about 70th days ago.
So, what can we expect?
We can expect the second drop after about a month or less after the halving, like in 2016, i.e 'sell-the-news' reaction.
High volatility - like a pump to $10300 (high channel boundary) and dump to $7200 (lower).
Confident further growth only after 2+ months after the halving
It needs to remember, all the above is just speculation, and bitcoin can easily fly to the moon or dump to the ground on the 12th of May, but having the information about previous events could help to prepare for a new one.
Hit the "LIKE" button and follow to support, thank you.
Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research.
Bitcoin Buy Signal! Background:
We all know about the halving but the misconception is that everyone assumes that it will go up from here. Looking at the charts we still see bearish structures and bearish indicators. And looking at past halvings, we see a pattern of dump, retrace, dump, moon. Taking that into consideration, my bearish scenarios can still playout with a long term bull run following the halving.
One of the fundamental indicators I have been watching closely is the Hash Ribbon indicator. The other day, it triggered a buy signal. Based on previous signals, there is often a dip before the signal plays out with huge gains. This adds more confluence to my previous ideas that we are in for a dump prior to the big rally.
Prior to the previous halving, the price went on a huge rally, then dumped to the 50% fib (wicks extending beyond 61.8%), with another rally right before the halving. Following the halving another dump between the 61.8% fib and 78.6% fib (wicks extending beyond 78.6%). From here, the price rose to the moon.
The first halving also followed a similar pattern to a lesser degree. The price rallied, then dumped to 50% fib, with another rally right before the halving. Following the halving a small price decrease before the price rose to the moon.
Expectations for this idea:
We top out at the current red box zone, trading at this level up to 1-2 days max.
As early as today, the price starts to dump to the edge of the ascending wedge.
Following some consolidation, a further extension to the 50% fib level (with potential wicks below 61.8% fib)
There is a small rally back to the 23.6% fib prior to the halving.
Following the halving another dump extending to the 78.6% fib level (with potential wicks down below the 100% fib).
This should create a ton of meaningful divergence to kickstart the bull run.
This idea will be invalidated if the current rally extends beyond 8k, likely with a further extension to close the CME gap around 9k. It is now or never for the bulls. The bulls have been strong and I believe there is a possibility for the bulls to break the trend with a huge rally in the near future.
Just for reference, the red bar on the Hash Ribbon only indicates that the halving is around the corner.
Thanks for taking the time to read this idea.
If you found it interesting, please support my efforts by leaving your feedback or questions below and upvote this chart.
Cheers!
These ideas are not financial advice.
Bitcoin is re-testing its “Legacy trend-line”Everyone is so excited about Bitcoin halving. Many traders compare fractals from 2015 to what is happening right now, but everyone fails to look at the bigger picture properly. The most important difference between halving in 2016 and in 2020 is the preceding trend.
When you compare weekly RSI trend in 2020 and in 2016, you will see that we are still in a downtrend since June 2019, because Bitcoin couldn’t break above the red line on RSI indicator, while in 2016 there was a clear uptrend before halving.
There is one single line which defined the entire uptrend of 2016-2020. It was acting as a strong support in Dec’18-Jan’19 and also in Dec’19. However, in March 2020 Bitcoin broke below the black line and now it is acting as a strong resistance. In technical analysis, it is common for price to re-test the trend-line after its penetration, and more often than not price fails to get back above the trend-line.
One thing we know about halving is that the price will increase IF demand stays the same, but since June 2019 demand has been declining, sometimes too much, which triggered a short-term rally.
Needless to say, global economic conditions are entirely different from what we had in 2016. Most people say that crisis will increase Bitcoin price because of instability of the financial system. However, I don’t agree with this statement because price can only increase when people buy an asset, and during a crisis or a recession people have different priorities and they just don’t have enough money to buy financial assets.
We had a short-term rally after March sell-off, let’s see what happens next.
Bitcoin | Small reversal (shakeout) before the Bull RunThis is a brief analysis of Bitcoin. Since our last analysis on April 29, Bitcoin’s price has risen by over 1000 dollar! The highest price Bitcoin reached was yesterday at a price point of 9485. We don’t see the “real” fomo yet, but it seems this is a small start.
Something interesting that we did mention on the Bitcoin chart is a small pattern that is now forming.
In the graph, you can see that every time Bitcoin has gone up, the price will move sideways for a few days before going down again. If true, Bitcoin's price should meet its target within 72 hours. The chance of reaching the price target between 8000 and 7750 is quite high. When we reach this target, we can expect an increase in the price and we see Bitcoin going to 10K in a short time.
This is of course not 100% guaranteed. When Bitcoin does not go down again but closes a daily candle above 9K, we see this pattern as invalid.
With only 11 days to go before the Bitcoin reward is lowered, it seems pretty decent for Bitcoin.
A short overview:
We are above the 20 Daily Moving Average (currently at 7434)
We are above the 20 Weekly Moving Average (currently at 7902)
We are above the 200 Daily Moving Average (currently at 7980)
Bitcoin block reward will cut in half in 11 days
Buy signal from the Hash RIbbon
Support levels at: 8600
Resistance zones at 9000
Thanks for reading and let me know your expected price targets for the upcoming halving!
Bitcoin Scenarios for Halving and BreakoutCurrent scenarios on the 3 day chart:
After the big 3 day candle which closed yesterday, we're now waiting 3 days for the current candle to close. A close near current price will create a spinning top or indecision candle, which will suggest a strong move upwards (see blue box)
Alternatively as per red box: possible dip to find support around $7425 as a launching pad for breaking through long-term strong resistance trendlines above.
Shorter time-frame analyses to follow to track the scenarios as they develop.
Bitcoin (BTC): Symmetrical Triangle + Bitcoin Halving eventA symmetrical triangle is evident, which means drastic price change in either direction. Looking back at BTC history and previous Bitcoin halving events (every 4 years), the price starts to increase about a year after.
The upcoming BTC halving event is estimated at May 11th 2020 at block 630,000 (source: www.buybitcoinworldwide.com).
So, will BTC skyrocket? Or will mining hit the unprofitable threshold that will shift demand to altcoins?
Bitcoin | Has the Bull Run finally started?!It has been a great week since we wrote our last analysis! Not only Bitcoin was able to break through a number of important resistances, but the halving fomo also seems to khave started. As we wrote in our last analysis, Bitcoin fought for its Higher Highs (HH) at a price range of 6800. At that moment we did expect Bitcoin to drop slightly at the 6600 or 6200 level. We were wrong as Bitcoin didn’t even come close to this (lowest price was 6754). Fortunately for the Bitcoin holders, the price seems to remain higher. Bitcoin managed to raise 1500 dollar (21.72%) in just one week. We broke the last Higher High at a price of 7469, and pushed through the 8k resistance.
In our post of April 16, we already mentioned the hash ribbon capitalization signal. On April 25, this signal turned into a buy signal and from that moment on, the price seems to continue to rise.
The disappointing thing is that the volume is still lower than we would expect in an “breakout”. This could argue that this outbreak could be some kind of “fakeout”.But so far, Bitcoin’s price has remained stable and continues to rise. We can say that it seems that Bitcoin has finally broken its downward trend and seems to be starting a new Bull Run.
With only 12 days to go before the Bitcoin reward cut, Bitcoin’s price doesn’t seem to be showing any signs of weakening anymore. Bitcoin could even rise above the 20 Weekly Moving Average (currently priced at 7878), and even pushed above the 200 Daily moving Average (currently priced at 7974). The 200 daily moving average is used to indicate when something is in a bull or bear market. And as long as we can stay above this moving average, we may find ourselves in a bull market again.
If we check history, Bitcoin will not retest the 200 daily moving average for a few months after the breakout. If we see Bitcoin retesting this after a few days or weeks, it could be a sign that this was just a fakeout, and Bitcoin may again see lower prices again.
But for now everything seems positive for Bitcoin, and we might see 10K sooner than later..! The next two weeks will be exciting for Bitcoin as more and more fomo will come in the coming days. All we need to be careful about is what will happen after the Bitcoin reward cut. We don’t know what traders will do and the price may drop after that date.
A short overview:
We are above the 20 Daily Moving Average (currently at 7226)
We are above the 20 Weekly Moving Average (currently at 7878)
We are above the 200 Daily Moving Average (currently at 7974)
Bitcoin block reward will cut in half in 12 days
Buy signal from the Hash RIbbon
Support levels at: 7800
Resistance zones at 8400
Thank you for reading and let me know what you think about the upcomming halving!
Ethereum (ETH): A significant wealth transfer to ETHBitcoin halving is estimated to be May 11th 2020 (source: www.buybitcoinworldwide.com)
This could become the start of another huge bubble. Since 2016 (the last Bitcoin halving), Ethereum has had more positive exposure to the mainstream. The public is more educated on its usefulness and potential. It's become more legitimate. The bitcoin halving is going to have a tremendous effect on ETH and other altcoins. But the 2020 halving will significantly decrease the profitability of BTC mining. Alternatives will be in high demand especially those utilizing Proof-of-stake (POS). Ethereum is a front-runner.