Bitcoinidea
Bitcoin $200,000: A Matter of TimeThe price of Bitcoin has historically exhibited an upward trend following each halving event. This phenomenon stems from a combination of factors, including a reduced supply of newly minted bitcoins, increased demand driven by scarcity, positive market sentiment surrounding the halving, and speculative buying fueled by anticipation of future price appreciation.
The price of Bitcoin began to rise significantly in the months leading up to the 3rd halving, which occurred on May 11, 2020. The price rose from around $5,000 in March 2020 to over $10,000 in May 2020. After the halving, the price of Bitcoin continued to rise, reaching a peak of over $68,000 in November 2021.
The fourth halving is estimated to occur in the second week of April 2024. The price of Bitcoin has been rising since the beginning of 2023, and I believe that it could reach $46,000 before halving and forming strong resistance for the next breakout. However, it is also possible that the price of Bitcoin could decline before the halving, as it did in the months leading up to the second and third halving in 2016 and 2020.
After the 4th halving, we can expect a significant upward movement in Bitcoin. Additionally, we can expect ETF approval after the halving, which could further impact the price of Bitcoin and drive it upwards to $200k.
Thanks
Hexa
BTCUSD Trading Plan - 31/Jan/2024Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect BTC to go Up if it gives correction here.
Look for your BUY setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
BITCOIN - MAJOR CORRECTION: STILL -20% LEFT TO GO (TARGET 32K)Bitcoin is correcting. It is as simple as that. Here is my input on things:
What is on the chart? (Follow the steps)
1) Price rallied back in October 2023, breaking the high of the 13th of July 2023. Throughout this breakout a large untouched daily FVG was formed.
2) Following the rally, price slowed down and created an accumulation structure which plays a huge role in this analysis. LIQUIDITY ! This price structure presents a huge target for bears. We pair this idea with the fact that price is currently in a premium area. Where is the price equilibrium located? Right within this accumulation structure.
3) This is a major range that also plays a fundamental role in this analysis. POWER OF 3 .
This is a known price action theory (Power of 3) constituted of 3 (no shit) steps: accumulation, manipulation and distribution. Why is it relevant here? Well open your eyes. We had our accumulation, we had our false break (manipulation) and now what is left? The distribution.
4) I am pairing the price action analysis with some Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technicals. Here we have 3 major bearish signals shown on the daily Ichimoku: break of the Tenkan and Kijun, a Tenkan/Kijun crossover and a Kumo twist (these are all bearish signals and you're free to go learn about Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in your own time).
5) Here we have an even more significant bearish signal/confirmation: the break of the weekly Tenkan + the entry into the daily Kumo meaning price didn't bounce on the Kumo which should act as support if we were to have been bullish.
6) Price closing on the border of the Kumo is never a good sign. This also gave place to a daily FVG that needs to be respected for the continuation of the correction + coupled with the low of the prior range which serves as our BOS level. Metaphorically, Bitcoin is on the edge of a cliff, with a pack of bears creeping up on it and it can't go any higher so it can either jump or take on the pack of bears. Statistically I think it would rather jump to see another day (assuming beyond the cliff there's water so it survives).
7) EQUILIBRIUM . This can be used as a partial target and price would finally be at the doors of the discounted area!
8) The 0.702 level + the July 2023 high + the daily FVG represents in my opinion the best possible entry for a long run position. This analysis would be a long setup if it weren't for the fact that we still have a 20% correction left to do.
As always, I hope you have a wonderful day and make a lot of money! Take care! ;)
BTC Lower liquidity Grabbed!!!Looks like we will touch some new highs soon | Probably new ATH of 2024 in Feb or April 🤷♂️..
On chart we have:
• Lower Wick (Weekly).
• Bull Flag Pattern (About to burst soon).
• Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern in 8h and 4h tf.
This whole scenario was performed in MAR'23 and I believe this will play out soon..
BITCOIN Weekly Outlook 29/01/24'Hello everyone,
new week, new BITCOIN update. Hope everyone doing great!
____________________________________________________
This week should be lot of FUN, due to FED meeting at Wednesday,
Im expecting increase in volatility so I suggest to everyone act accordingly.
So as I ment in Last Update, there was increased chance of retracing back to Highier prices, due to expected News last week.. and we rallied aproximatly where I eyed between 44-42k$.
In fact, we came back to almost exact Price, where I was firstly highly persuaded that we are in Great Odds for Short trade, thats why I suggested to use Trailing Stop Loss, to bag some of profits while we benefit from them. So everyone who did, good job guys.
So, as for RIGHT NOW , I think, we came back to great SHORT area, BUT we need to remember, that there is still potentional of going to Highier prices (44k$ area). We cant forget that! So if you decide to Short market, YOU HAVE TO USE STOP LOSS!!! Especially, when there is most likly volatility spike coming, due to FED meeting mid-week..
So, IF I was opening Short right now, I would check Lower timeframes (15minutes/5min), to found Price where STOP LOSS WILL BE!! Reason behind that is, IF I expect Market to going Lower before Meeting is done, THEN price SHOULD NOT going back highier about price I picked. PRICE I would choose right now is around 42599,99$ .. which is around 1% from where Price is Right Now, and its Representing area around Weekend Highs.. and so IF we expecting Start of Week to going Lower, this Price range SHOULD NOT BE TOUCHED... IF IT IS, there is possibility of going to Highier price ment earlier.. So STOP LOSS protect us from unnecessarly damage and we can adjust with NEW trade in CORRECT time LATER!
So again, BE CAREFULL with opening new trade right now, it can start moving real quick.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
BTC When will the Bitcoin selloff end??I've previously mentioned in a BTC (Bitcoin) trading idea that the ETF approval would be a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event:
Now, we observe a continuation pattern with bearish divergences on the RSI.
A bearish divergence is a term used in technical analysis to describe a situation where the price of an asset is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator. In particular, it occurs when the price of the asset is making higher highs, but a related indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is making lower highs.
My current price target is FWB:39K , representing the next regional support.
Bitocin next support zones
the following fibonacci levels are the most relevant support zones as long as the short-term high is 49k. What happens after an impulse wave has touched the golden pocket is a complete correction to the 0.38 - 0.61 - 078 zone.
following this idea, the next level 0.38 with a POC, is a good area for a temporary rebound or trend continuation.
BTCUSD Bitcoin - Jan to Jan , what's next?! 22.1.24The common assumption is that Bitcoin is crazy and unpredictable.
But if we look at the big picture - A technically perfect picture appears, predictable looking at roughly a year and a half of trading.
Connecting the lowest and highest points creates an ascending (rising) tunnel with parallel lows and highs.
The current floor of the long-term trend is around 32,000 per coin.
The current roof of the long-term trend is around 50,000 per coin.
A daily weekly candle close below 40,000 could mean 38,000 to 32,000 would be the next targets to come.
A daily weekly candle close above 40,800 could mean immediate target would be back to
42,000 following with 44,000 and 48,000.
ETF news provide turbulent movements which provide attractive entry points in the bigger picture view of up-trend since beginning of 2023.
A weekly close below 32,000 would be the sign of the picture shifting, but until that happens bitcoin is overall expected to have a very bullish year.
BTCUSDT.4HBased on the provided market data, BTC is currently priced at $41,270 against USDT. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 32.58, indicating an oversold condition and possibly an upcoming price rebound. However, the 4-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -500.32, suggesting a bearish market scenario.
The Bollinger Bands (BB) for 4 hours, 1 day and 7 days are at $43,860, $47,150 and $48,530 respectively. These values indicate that BTC is currently trading below its average price, suggesting a bearish trend.
The support levels for 4 hours, 1 day and 7 days are $40,568, $40,500, and $35,400 respectively. If the price drops below these levels, it could potentially fall further to the next support levels at $40,100, $38,500, and $30,600 or even to the third support levels at $38,600, $37,300, and $24,700.
The resistance levels for 4 hours, 1 day and 7 days are $43,937, $43,900, and $48,300 respectively. If the price breaks these levels, it could potentially rise further to the next resistance levels at $46,600, $47,500, and $51,910 or even to the third resistance levels at $47,500, $49,300, and $59,700.
The 1-day and 7-day RSI are at 40.86 and 70.52, indicating a slightly oversold condition on a daily basis but an overbought condition on a weekly basis. The 1-day and 7-day MACD are at -145.30 and 3996.50 respectively, suggesting a bearish scenario in the short term but a bullish scenario in the long term.
In conclusion, the market data suggests a bearish scenario in the short term with potential for a rebound due to the oversold condition. However, the long term trend appears to be bullish. As always, these indicators should not be used in isolation and other market factors should also be considered. Please use this analysis responsibly and conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
BTC UPDATE Hello everyone,
Here is my idea about the next #BTC move.
For having more #bullish move, #Bitcoin price should hold the 40K area. This is my invalidation level for keeping the #bullish view. Also, OBV shows weakness in daily TF.
Dropping below the 40K may probably lead to testing lower prices, and the first important support is the 30K to 32K area.
Let's see what will happen.
Cheers!
Mr. Cryptotracker
Elaboration on BTC/USINTR for Q1 2024Hello everyone,
in yesterday post I spoke about what do I expect for Q1 2024 moving further ..
Today, I would like to elaborate in POINTS, WHY I think is necessarily to be VERY CAUTION in current Market conditions.
Will be using 15D timeframe to capture as much data as possible.
To get clearer picture of what is possible moving into future, we need to focus on what happend in past, even tho as ment before, market conditions are not EXTREMLY similar (due to highier inflation & interest rate!), but its closest we can get. Note, that current cutting cycle might be different for this exact reason, which could possibly mean that this process take longer and will have more pauses as in past. Aswell, bottom rate is expected to not be close to 0.
For better visualisation I put cutting process into GREEN CYRCLES, marked 1-5.
1.Terminal rate
2.First cut
3.First cutting pause
4.Continuation of rate cuts
5.New Terminal rate (bottom rate)
In the end of this process, PRICE came back very close to where it started Rallie and only then new Bullmarket occured.
Today, I think and expect that we are only somewhere in middle between points 1 and 2 of this whole process, and that should be reason for EXTREME CAUTION. Especially if we take into account that we are in elevated price level compared to previous year. Having in mind that last time cut occured that was THE POINT when market flipped. And even tho ATHs right now are not that close, is very possible that we keep coming closer to them in next months, IF there is no change in FED policy next meeting. AND THAT WOULD BEEN A TIME FOR EXTREME CAUTION!
This should stay relevant Until FED decide to Cut for the First Time.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
#Bitcoin bearish breakout of very important trendline
We can clearly see in this chart that the price has reached the upper boundary of a bullish channel, where it would encounter selling pressure.
As a result of this selling pressure, the price on Friday, January 12th, formed a bearish impulsive candle. Following this candle, it managed to break below the short-term bullish trendline that the price had respected in the last few months.
The bearish breakout of this trendline is a second signal, after the rejection from the bullish channel, that we might see further bearish movement in Bitcoin.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
Warning! Bitcoin could correct further; even to 36kThe eagerly anticipated ETF has finally arrived, and as anticipated by many, its approval was followed by a correction. After reaching a peak of $49,000, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD experienced a decline to a low of $41,500 yesterday, marking a 20% correction overall.
The question now arises: is the correction complete?
In my view, Bitcoin could potentially undergo further correction.
From a strictly technical standpoint, BtcUsd continues to exhibit a robust upward trend. However, despite the 41,500 support holding steady over the past month and a half, any surges above $44,000 were consistently met with selling pressure.
The recent ascent beyond $45,000, which was, in fact, a false breakout, contributes to the likelihood of a more extended correction scenario.
In summary, unless the price stabilizes above $45,000, the possibility of additional losses remains high. Sustained selling below the $41,500 zone could potentially lead to a drop to the $36,000 zone.
Bitcoin may be heading south for the winter!At least temporarily. When I look at this chart, I see imbalanced price action all over the place (purple boxes). And as we know with the smart money strategy, price will sooner or later make its way back into these areas.
So, my thinking is, if we get a break of structure (dotted line) followed by a re-test somewhere close to the imbalance above that area, or the manipulation candle (solid red line), then we may be looking at a temporary change in direction.
That said, Bitcoin has been in a strong bullish environment since Nov. 2022, so it’s riskier than a similar set up moving in the opposite direction. Manage your bankroll accordingly!
Bitcoin Next Move ?Pair : BTCUSD ( Bitcoin / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Rejection from the Upper Trend Line. It has completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and making its Correction. We have Strong Divergence we can Look for Short If it Breaks Lower Trend Line Otherwise Trend is your Friend
$BTC Analysis after Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval- The white resistance zone has been flipped into support
- There is very strong resistance in the red resistance zone ($46,270 to $48,264)
- The light blue trendline is my strongest resistance target around $49.1k
- There has been a brief pump up to the light blue trendline and a strong rejection down that resulted in a long wick back down
- Bitcoin is currently trying to flip the lower end of the red resistance zone into support at $46,270
BTC (another bullish impulse?)BTC / USDT
BTC just made a X3 from its bottom at 15k
But it seems it is ready for another bullish impulse and here is why :
We have unsloping channel target at 52k
Also we have new ascening channel above it which targets 51k
Also there is huge old weekly resistance between 48-52k
So can easily touch this resistance easily
We can also see that both bears and bulls got liquidated recently buy 2wicks this also means that BTC is ready for another big move
The ETF decision:
Weather it rejected or approved it will be bullish for BTC in long term
But the impact on price will affect the short term price
From my point of view :
1-if ETF approved: major breakout which can touch 52k or even go wild to ATH
2- if ETF rejected: we can see a harsh rejection in short term (it can drop like 20% in one candle )