Bitcoinidea
BTC - Weekly Perspective - 02/11 to 02/18As stated in previous analyses, the long-term chart showed an upward pivot, in which the 44.96K region was an important resistance point to be overcome in this chart time.
Anyway, this value was left behind, and the crypto needs to reach the 51.4K region and remain above 44.9K throughout this month to remain in a consolidated upward trend and seek the top region at 65.1K. See the image below
If this does not happen, we can characterize this breakout of strong resistance as just a beautiful buying "TRAP" and have the following situation. See the image below.
On the short-term chart we have a pattern that could help the crypto reach the level of 51.4k.
Do your analysis and good business.
Be aware, if you buy, use stop loss.
See other graphical analyzes belo
Bitcoin halving starts in 60 days. I like this price channelI’m not saying that Halving will begin on April 8th, this is an assumption based on my findings.
My forecast is this: Bitcoin is now a colossal success for ETFs, and now "MicroStrategy" has like-minded people, it is enough to single out one figure for everything to fall into place, "BlackRock", which is accumulating 82000 Bitcoins today and announces on the "CNBC" channel that they will be accumulating Bitcoin for several more years.
Based on these important facts, I have a positive forecast for a new high in the price of Bitcoin.
BITCOIN Breakdown of Whats Going On - 06/02/2024Hello everyone,
I have to update on update of previous post, to break it down little clearer for some of you, to explain why RIGHT NOW Im very causious...
For that purpose Im going from Highier to Lower timeframes, to get clearer picture of what is the MOST possible at this moment..
So, If we go from 5Day to 4h timeframe, its clearly to see that we are "stucked" in consolidation of last 5D candle, which was our "top" of 2023 and we are in process of "accumulation/distribution" either shorts/longs before moving further (as stated yesterday, longer we stay highier, chance of continuation of going highier increasing)...
So as you know, I WAS of opinion, that we should go lower to swept Sellside liquidity, before moving further... but since FED meeting changed nothing, I HAVE TO stick with my Highier TimeFrame perspective...
And thats it, as presented in Q1 update - Due to previous experience in similar market conditions I should suggest that until nothing change & FED start cutting rates, market will move Highier with Time until this change come!
Breakdown :
5 DAY -
to
1 Day -
On 1Day, we can see much better, that we first swept Buyside liquidity of that 1st Rectangle consolidation, before we processed to swept Sellside liquidity... BUT NOW, we came EXACTLY BACK where we WAS, which SHOULDNT be CASE if we continuing LOWER with confidence...
So, we HAVE TO go to 4hr, to make "better and clearer" guess of whats happening...
4h -
So , I added 1 more layer of rectange... which is LAST WEEK RANGE...
You can see, its relatively tight with its own "consolidation" (i put green cut line between for better visibility)... and YESTERDAY, we firstly swept highs, then lows and now we proceeding to going back up.. in this case, IF WE ARE ABLE to MOVE ABOVE that FED HIGH I would expect with high probability of moving further up, ONCE WE GET ABOVE OUR CONSOLIDATION BOX, both of them!
-- One more 4hr chart with SMA , which I do not use as "trading tool", but in my obsertvation-> When they are stacked like now and we moving in tight range in same time.. WHEN Price BREAK above/under them with "test" - in most cases it continuos in that direction for pro-longed period of time.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
Bitcoin Market Cycle This chart tried to reflect the uncanny similarities between Bitcoin's previous cycles and will try to use that information to "predict" next market cycle top in terms of price and time.
The price is derived using Log FIB extension 1.618 and is the minimum Bitcoin has to hit.
Although Bitcoin has gone way above this extension in the past, I am going to keep things a little conservative.
The chart is aimed to not use any indicators to keep it clean but you can apply Pi cycle top indicator (which has been super accurate to make it more precise)
The chart shows how bottom of the previous bear market to the next one takes about 206 Weeks or so and how bear market lasts about 52-55 weeks while Bull market (from the bottom and not halving) is about 155 Weeks ish.
While the drawdowns are becoming less and severe by some percentage, I chose about 75% drawdown for next bottom in 2026 with price of about mid 40K.
Like someone said " All models are wrong but some are useful" this can clear some noise and provide us some timeframe when we can start taking some profits based on time and price.
Over time, I will provide update to this model if I think I can make it more accurate.
LFG!!
BITCOIN Weekly Outlook 05/02/2024Hello guys,
great week to everyone.
So my view on BITCOIN didnt change in last days.
I think the IDEA from last Update is still in play.
But - Im staying alerted, since trading range is getting squeezed into tight range, so I would be expecting highier tide of volatility to come sooner rather then later. For this reason, I would again suggest to EVERYONE to use STOP LOSS.
Reason why Im somewhat "alerted" is - longer we stay in highier price range, without moving further down, in my view, it increasing chances of our idea to be WRONG- and as stated in big Q1 update, until FED start cutting, or somethiing going significantly wrong, market will go highier with time... So this would invalid our view.. BUT UNTIL IT HAPPEND we need to suggest that Sellside liquidity is the 1st target before potentional continuation of move upside since that how chart present itself after meeting...
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
Bitcoin is Going DOWN!!!Bitcoin trades just like any other asset class in the sense it seeks Liquidity and Imbalances from the highest to lowest time frames. Typically we gauge liquidity zones from the monthly and weekly time frames. These areas in the markets are our weekly and monthly target zones aka runs on liquidity. These liquidity zones tie in with filling 4 Hr, daily, and weekly imbalances. Once you get trend direction from the monthly you begin to tag your monthly, and weekly targets. We know our standard deviations are birthed from our Dealer Range. Always use the previous day's dealer range and standard deviations when trading Crypto. Typically price tags the 3rd or 4th standard deviations and reverses. Look for weekly and daily targets inside of your standard deviations. They are very precise targets down to the pipette. Always factor in the spread with bitcoin as it is typically very huge. Always trust your set up. Never over leverage. Have a awesome week of trading! - I AM MASTER JEDI & MENTOR at #SniperGang
"Bitcoin Holds Steady: Sideways Market Sentiment Prevails
"Tracking the Thrilling Bitcoin Action: A Week in Sideways Market Dominance! 📈🔄
Hey, fellow crypto enthusiasts! Today, let's dive into the latest rollercoaster ride with our favorite digital asset, Bitcoin. Over the past week, the charts reveal a tale of a sideways market, where the price action has been in a tight range.
As of now, the battle between supply at the 43,500 level and demand at 40,200 is the focal point. For those actively engaged in Bitcoin trading, the strategy revolves around buying at support, selling at resistance, or entering at demand and exiting at supply.
The crucial moment awaits us at the 45,000 level. A decisive break above could signal a powerful momentum, potentially retesting the lofty heights of 50,000. However, the absence of major Bitcoin news has limited our ascent, hitting a recent peak at 50,000 and encountering resistance.
Without any groundbreaking developments, the next few days may see a retracement to the 39,000 level. Your engagement is invaluable to me, so remember to comment, like, share, and subscribe! Let's boost this community together and navigate the crypto seas. Until next time, fellow traders, see you on the flip side! 🚀💰
Bitcoin $200,000: A Matter of TimeThe price of Bitcoin has historically exhibited an upward trend following each halving event. This phenomenon stems from a combination of factors, including a reduced supply of newly minted bitcoins, increased demand driven by scarcity, positive market sentiment surrounding the halving, and speculative buying fueled by anticipation of future price appreciation.
The price of Bitcoin began to rise significantly in the months leading up to the 3rd halving, which occurred on May 11, 2020. The price rose from around $5,000 in March 2020 to over $10,000 in May 2020. After the halving, the price of Bitcoin continued to rise, reaching a peak of over $68,000 in November 2021.
The fourth halving is estimated to occur in the second week of April 2024. The price of Bitcoin has been rising since the beginning of 2023, and I believe that it could reach $46,000 before halving and forming strong resistance for the next breakout. However, it is also possible that the price of Bitcoin could decline before the halving, as it did in the months leading up to the second and third halving in 2016 and 2020.
After the 4th halving, we can expect a significant upward movement in Bitcoin. Additionally, we can expect ETF approval after the halving, which could further impact the price of Bitcoin and drive it upwards to $200k.
Thanks
Hexa
BTCUSD Trading Plan - 31/Jan/2024Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect BTC to go Up if it gives correction here.
Look for your BUY setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
BITCOIN - MAJOR CORRECTION: STILL -20% LEFT TO GO (TARGET 32K)Bitcoin is correcting. It is as simple as that. Here is my input on things:
What is on the chart? (Follow the steps)
1) Price rallied back in October 2023, breaking the high of the 13th of July 2023. Throughout this breakout a large untouched daily FVG was formed.
2) Following the rally, price slowed down and created an accumulation structure which plays a huge role in this analysis. LIQUIDITY ! This price structure presents a huge target for bears. We pair this idea with the fact that price is currently in a premium area. Where is the price equilibrium located? Right within this accumulation structure.
3) This is a major range that also plays a fundamental role in this analysis. POWER OF 3 .
This is a known price action theory (Power of 3) constituted of 3 (no shit) steps: accumulation, manipulation and distribution. Why is it relevant here? Well open your eyes. We had our accumulation, we had our false break (manipulation) and now what is left? The distribution.
4) I am pairing the price action analysis with some Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technicals. Here we have 3 major bearish signals shown on the daily Ichimoku: break of the Tenkan and Kijun, a Tenkan/Kijun crossover and a Kumo twist (these are all bearish signals and you're free to go learn about Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in your own time).
5) Here we have an even more significant bearish signal/confirmation: the break of the weekly Tenkan + the entry into the daily Kumo meaning price didn't bounce on the Kumo which should act as support if we were to have been bullish.
6) Price closing on the border of the Kumo is never a good sign. This also gave place to a daily FVG that needs to be respected for the continuation of the correction + coupled with the low of the prior range which serves as our BOS level. Metaphorically, Bitcoin is on the edge of a cliff, with a pack of bears creeping up on it and it can't go any higher so it can either jump or take on the pack of bears. Statistically I think it would rather jump to see another day (assuming beyond the cliff there's water so it survives).
7) EQUILIBRIUM . This can be used as a partial target and price would finally be at the doors of the discounted area!
8) The 0.702 level + the July 2023 high + the daily FVG represents in my opinion the best possible entry for a long run position. This analysis would be a long setup if it weren't for the fact that we still have a 20% correction left to do.
As always, I hope you have a wonderful day and make a lot of money! Take care! ;)
BTC Lower liquidity Grabbed!!!Looks like we will touch some new highs soon | Probably new ATH of 2024 in Feb or April 🤷♂️..
On chart we have:
• Lower Wick (Weekly).
• Bull Flag Pattern (About to burst soon).
• Inverted Head and Shoulder Pattern in 8h and 4h tf.
This whole scenario was performed in MAR'23 and I believe this will play out soon..
BITCOIN Weekly Outlook 29/01/24'Hello everyone,
new week, new BITCOIN update. Hope everyone doing great!
____________________________________________________
This week should be lot of FUN, due to FED meeting at Wednesday,
Im expecting increase in volatility so I suggest to everyone act accordingly.
So as I ment in Last Update, there was increased chance of retracing back to Highier prices, due to expected News last week.. and we rallied aproximatly where I eyed between 44-42k$.
In fact, we came back to almost exact Price, where I was firstly highly persuaded that we are in Great Odds for Short trade, thats why I suggested to use Trailing Stop Loss, to bag some of profits while we benefit from them. So everyone who did, good job guys.
So, as for RIGHT NOW , I think, we came back to great SHORT area, BUT we need to remember, that there is still potentional of going to Highier prices (44k$ area). We cant forget that! So if you decide to Short market, YOU HAVE TO USE STOP LOSS!!! Especially, when there is most likly volatility spike coming, due to FED meeting mid-week..
So, IF I was opening Short right now, I would check Lower timeframes (15minutes/5min), to found Price where STOP LOSS WILL BE!! Reason behind that is, IF I expect Market to going Lower before Meeting is done, THEN price SHOULD NOT going back highier about price I picked. PRICE I would choose right now is around 42599,99$ .. which is around 1% from where Price is Right Now, and its Representing area around Weekend Highs.. and so IF we expecting Start of Week to going Lower, this Price range SHOULD NOT BE TOUCHED... IF IT IS, there is possibility of going to Highier price ment earlier.. So STOP LOSS protect us from unnecessarly damage and we can adjust with NEW trade in CORRECT time LATER!
So again, BE CAREFULL with opening new trade right now, it can start moving real quick.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
BTC When will the Bitcoin selloff end??I've previously mentioned in a BTC (Bitcoin) trading idea that the ETF approval would be a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event:
Now, we observe a continuation pattern with bearish divergences on the RSI.
A bearish divergence is a term used in technical analysis to describe a situation where the price of an asset is moving in the opposite direction of a technical indicator. In particular, it occurs when the price of the asset is making higher highs, but a related indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is making lower highs.
My current price target is FWB:39K , representing the next regional support.
Bitocin next support zones
the following fibonacci levels are the most relevant support zones as long as the short-term high is 49k. What happens after an impulse wave has touched the golden pocket is a complete correction to the 0.38 - 0.61 - 078 zone.
following this idea, the next level 0.38 with a POC, is a good area for a temporary rebound or trend continuation.
BTCUSD Bitcoin - Jan to Jan , what's next?! 22.1.24The common assumption is that Bitcoin is crazy and unpredictable.
But if we look at the big picture - A technically perfect picture appears, predictable looking at roughly a year and a half of trading.
Connecting the lowest and highest points creates an ascending (rising) tunnel with parallel lows and highs.
The current floor of the long-term trend is around 32,000 per coin.
The current roof of the long-term trend is around 50,000 per coin.
A daily weekly candle close below 40,000 could mean 38,000 to 32,000 would be the next targets to come.
A daily weekly candle close above 40,800 could mean immediate target would be back to
42,000 following with 44,000 and 48,000.
ETF news provide turbulent movements which provide attractive entry points in the bigger picture view of up-trend since beginning of 2023.
A weekly close below 32,000 would be the sign of the picture shifting, but until that happens bitcoin is overall expected to have a very bullish year.
BTCUSDT.4HBased on the provided market data, BTC is currently priced at $41,270 against USDT. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 32.58, indicating an oversold condition and possibly an upcoming price rebound. However, the 4-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at -500.32, suggesting a bearish market scenario.
The Bollinger Bands (BB) for 4 hours, 1 day and 7 days are at $43,860, $47,150 and $48,530 respectively. These values indicate that BTC is currently trading below its average price, suggesting a bearish trend.
The support levels for 4 hours, 1 day and 7 days are $40,568, $40,500, and $35,400 respectively. If the price drops below these levels, it could potentially fall further to the next support levels at $40,100, $38,500, and $30,600 or even to the third support levels at $38,600, $37,300, and $24,700.
The resistance levels for 4 hours, 1 day and 7 days are $43,937, $43,900, and $48,300 respectively. If the price breaks these levels, it could potentially rise further to the next resistance levels at $46,600, $47,500, and $51,910 or even to the third resistance levels at $47,500, $49,300, and $59,700.
The 1-day and 7-day RSI are at 40.86 and 70.52, indicating a slightly oversold condition on a daily basis but an overbought condition on a weekly basis. The 1-day and 7-day MACD are at -145.30 and 3996.50 respectively, suggesting a bearish scenario in the short term but a bullish scenario in the long term.
In conclusion, the market data suggests a bearish scenario in the short term with potential for a rebound due to the oversold condition. However, the long term trend appears to be bullish. As always, these indicators should not be used in isolation and other market factors should also be considered. Please use this analysis responsibly and conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.