Bitcoinidea
Bitcoin Breaks $60k: How Rising Global Liquidity is Fueling the Good Morning Crypto Friends and Investors,
It's an exciting time in the market—Bitcoin (BTC) is back over $60k and has successfully reclaimed the 200-day EMA. The price is following the bar pattern we discussed last time, maintaining a steady trajectory for continued upward momentum through the end of the year, especially with global liquidity levels on the rise, as illustrated in the chart below.
The global liquidity trend is visible on both daily and weekly charts, with indicators like the Hull Suite, Donchian, and the Rate of Change (ROC) all trending upward.
What Typically Happens When Global Liquidity Rises?
Historically, when global liquidity rises, it often sparks upward trends in financial markets, particularly in assets such as stocks, commodities, and real estate. Increased liquidity means more capital is available, and central banks or financial institutions may inject funds into the economy, often by lowering interest rates or implementing quantitative easing (QE).
Key Market Trends Associated with Rising Liquidity:
- Asset Price Inflation : As liquidity increases, investors typically move capital into higher-yielding assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, or real estate. This capital influx drives up the prices of these assets, sometimes creating asset bubbles.
- Lower Interest Rates: Central banks may lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity, making borrowing cheaper for businesses and consumers. Lower rates also make bonds and other fixed-income assets less attractive, pushing investors toward riskier assets like equities. Globally, this trend is already in motion, and it's anticipated that on September 18th, the U.S. Central Bank will follow suit with a rate cut, expected to fall between 475-525 basis points (bps).
- Weakening of Currency Value : With more money circulating, currencies can weaken, particularly during aggressive QE periods. As currency values decline, inflation may rise, reducing your purchasing power. I highly recommend reading my article, "Why You Need to Invest," or watching my corresponding YouTube video for more information. Remember, when fiat currencies lose value, hard assets like real estate, Bitcoin, and gold tend to increase in value, so it's wise to plan accordingly.
- Increased Risk Appetite: Rising liquidity and falling interest rates encourage investors to take on more risk, driving up stock market valuations at a rapid pace. If you're looking to capitalize on this risk appetite, platforms like Robinhood and ByBit offer margin accounts that allow you to borrow within your investment portfolio, increasing your exposure to both growth and potential loss. Be cautious when using margin or leverage, as global liquidity is cyclical. Eventually, QE will give way to quantitative tightening (QT), and you could risk losing your gains.
- Commodities Rally: Commodities, such as oil, precious metals, and even Bitcoin, often rise in response to increased liquidity. Investors view these as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation. Bitcoin, with its dual role as both a commodity and a tech-like asset, tends to perform well in both risk-on and risk-off environments. In my opinion, having some Bitcoin in your portfolio is always a good strategy.
Risk Update:
I'll be honest—during the last cycle, I convinced too many people to invest in cryptocurrency and Bitcoin because I, like many others, believed in the supercycle theory and anticipated even higher prices. This time around, I’m taking a more measured approach. As long as prices and indicators support a bullish case, I’ll continue to advise my friends and followers accordingly. However, as we approach the market’s peak, I will be sharing strategies for taking profits. You can read more in my article, "A Strategic Approach to Bitcoin," (substack.com) or watch my YouTube video, “Bitcoin's Next Big Move: My Strategy Revealed!” I’ll revisit this topic when it's more immediately relevant, but for now, fear and greed indices remain borderline fearful—this is the time to buy. A few months from now, the risks will be higher, and potential gains will be smaller.
Indicator Update:
Risk Level: Zero (Bullish)
Puell Multiple: 1 (Bullish)
Mayer Multiple: 2 (Bullish)
Bollinger Bands % (BB%): 0.35 (Bullish)
Hash Ribbon: Still trending higher (Bullish)
In Summary:
Global liquidity is on the rise, rate cuts are looming, and historically, these factors lead to significant earnings potential. Don’t wait for the FOMO to set in—our indicators and projections are tracking well, and there's substantial profit to be made if you act according to your risk tolerance and financial plan. Always consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions, and discuss your strategy to see what aligns best with your long-term goals.
Godspeed, and good fortune.
--Complete article found here: substack.com --
For more insights, please visit my webpage at linker.ee/pcalzolaio. I look forward to sharing this journey with you all.
#FIRE #FREEDOM #BITCOIN
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
BTCUSD - BULLISH.Bitcoin looks interesting (well at least to me). It seems that it is ready to go in a bullish run. Waiting for opportunity to go bullish once price pullback to the 58,800 area. Immediate target is around 61,200 area and larger target is around 65,000.
Like and follow if you agree with this idea. Happy profit day!
when moon sir? 69k when bear sir? 37666.33red lines - sell or watch zone for bull trend continuation
orange lines - touch already
green lines - accumulation zone (with DCA)
BULLRUN confirmation after 69000 retest (at least on small tf).
BEARMARKET? we don`t talk things like this here :)
But personally i think that we have around 40% chance for a new low under 47000.
Altcoins? other story...NOV or next year
#BTC/USD ROADMAP to $93000! Stay Strong, Know the Plan!Hello everyone, first off, stay strong—things are going to improve soon!
Many people are confused right now and might get liquidated, eventually leaving the market and regretting it later. But not you! You have access to this information.
Take your time to read and understand the current situation fully.
Special Thanks to my close friend Adison for the valuable insights he shares with the community and me!
Please HIT that follow to stay ahead and like this article if it helps!
Key Bottom Ranges to Watch For
There are two high-confluence zones to look out for that could signal a strong bounce and an upward move:
• 50,521 - 50,901
• 46,216 - 46,930
These ranges represent higher timeframe (HTF) bottoms for the overall HTF trend. There’s a good chance that we could see a reversal within one of these zones, leading to a potential upward move.
However, if these levels don’t hold, we might see a deeper extension into the 37.7k - 43.5k range, which is an attractive liquidity zone. But this lower range only becomes relevant if the higher ranges fail to hold. That said, both of the above ranges are strong support levels and could propel the price back to all-time highs (ATH) of 70k - 72k or even higher, potentially reaching 89k - 93k.
Currently, we’ve already hit 53,400, a key level that’s holding off a potential sharp drop. If we lose this level, we could see a rapid decline to 3k. (Current price: 53,627)
Be prepared! We’ve already touched the 52,550 level, which is acting as major support. If it breaks, the ranges mentioned above become the most likely areas for a bounce, although the 52k range could still hold. However, I’m not counting on it, as we’ve previously sliced right through that level.
Additional Market Update:
• BTC is up 68% in volume.
• ETH is also up 68% in volume.
Both BTC and ETH have seen significant buying activity during this dip, especially since yesterday, with most of it happening today.
On the lower timeframe (LTF), the market is risky as we’re sitting at the final support zone of 52,550. Being the weekend, when mostly private retail traders are active, there’s a risk that they could get dragged down into losses, with many long positions liquidated before we move higher. LTFs are always tricky, and while volume is still low, pumps are easy.
I believe that the 52,550 support won’t hold through the weekend.
We’re likely to see the above-mentioned levels by the end of the weekend or early next week. Once those levels are reached, the market should stabilize, bringing a healthier, less choppy environment.
So it's just about a couple of weeks. Stay strong don't do anything stupid, I'll come up with more information very soon for trade setups on Altcoins.
Stay tuned and make sure you follow me.
HIt the like if you like it.
Thank you
#PEACE
BTCUSDT The important support level at $53,600 should be kept for now.
If the price reclaims $55,500 and consolidates, this will open the gates for $60,000
If Bitcoin loses the $53,600 support and the price consolidates here,. $52,000 - $50,000 is just a matter of time.
At worst, Bitcoin will retest $48,000 - $46,000
$IBIT Gap Filled As Forecast (New Leading Bitcoin Indicator?)Proof that this works?
So far it's 100% accurate.
Every single 'Gap' on the NASDAQ:IBIT 4-Hour chart has filled.
Refer back to my prior videos showing this, and while this does NOT mean it will continue to work forever... It's certainly a curious anomoly.
And likely works based on the same principals as the CME gaps which typically fill 99% of the time (There's still an unfilled gap on the Bitcoin CME at $9750 as I recall). But who's counting.
Going forward, I'll be using this as an additional guide to where price may be heading and potentially reversing to, before resuming trent.
Like and share this with your other trader friends, as this has been very interesting to monitor!
#BTC/USDT Bounce Incoming! Futures Trade Setup!#Bitcoin : 10/10 So far! Bounce seems highly likely at this level.
RSI Bullish divergence in the hourly chart.
But of course, no one knows for certain in this kind of market!
Invalidation:- Daily close below $54018.18!
If you're looking for a swing Trade, $54890 to 56150 is a good range to accumulate long on spot!
Futures Setup Here:- There's a higher chance of this setup getting invalidated if we lose 55500 again so be careful to try to keep your entry as low as possible to keep your Stop Loss small.
Always use leverage below 5x!
Entry:-
$56150, (50% entry)
$55700, (20% Entry)
$54890 (30% Entry)
Targets:-
$57155
$57855
$58200
$59544
Stop Loss:- $53854
This is a risky trade so always do your research this is not financial advice.
Do hit the like button if you want me to post more!
Thank you
PEACE
#BTC/USDT Urgent Update!### BTC/USDT Technical Analysis (1D)
**Overview:**
Bitcoin is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, within a descending channel, indicating a bearish trend. A break above these EMAs could trigger bullish price action.
**Key Points:**
- **Resistance:** $61,802 (channel top), $60,364.
- **Support:** $54018, 47,710, $43,882.
- **Invalidation Level:** $54,018 (daily close below).
**Scenarios:**
1. **Bullish:** Break above EMAs and channel top could target $68,000.
2. **Bearish:** Failure to break above EMAs and a close below $54,018 may lead to a drop towards $47,710 or lower.
**Conclusion:**
I think the price must break soon in the next few weeks, likely following our scenario with the blue forecast lines. Watch for a breakout above the EMAs for bullish potential; otherwise, expect further downside within the channel.
Do let me know what you think in the comments section and please hit the like button.
Thank you
#PEACE
$BTC Pi cycle top analysisCRYPTOCAP:BTC 's 5-days chart with the Pi-cycle top signal. The red moving average is the faster MA and green is the slower MA.
You can see that for the past 2 cycles, after the Pi cycle top signal fired, the slower MA will eventually slope down and after some time, it will begin to slope up again. When the slower MA slopes up again, it is typically a good idea to accumulate CRYPTOCAP:BTC when price is under the faster MA. You then take profit when the Pi cycle top signal fires again.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently under the faster MA, will history repeat itself once more? 🤔
BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bearish Confirmation? Oops!Like Ive mentioned in my previous BTC analysis, that $61,500 was critical zone and if it drops below that level, we will see further downward movement and this is exactly how it turned out.
The SHORT position targets are marked on the chart using the Risological swing trader.
Stay safe and all the best.
BTC/USD "Bitcoin" Bullish Robbery plan to steal the moneyHola ola My Dear,
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Another perspective on Bitcoin?#Bitcoin 1D chart;
Many of you may not like reading. But I think it's worth reading if, like me, you are always looking for different perspectives on Bitcoin.
A completely simple Bitcoin chart.
The yellow vertical lines are from the Halving periods. The Blue vertical lines next to them indicate the 500 days before the Halving and the Green vertical lines indicate the 500 days after the Halving.
Let's try to interpret all this;
What was Halving meaning?
It shows the halving events that occur on the Bitcoin network. Halving is a process that occurs approximately every 4 years, where block rewards are halved. This event slows down Bitcoin's supply growth and often has significant effects on the price.
After the 2020 Halving period, we see the start of the bull run.
But before that, from 500 days ago to the Halving period, there was only a 5% drop . In total, it showed an upward performance of 291% .
In the 500 days after the Halving, we see that it reached its historical peak at that time with a total increase of 660% .
Let me share this information for those who are curious; The level exactly 500 days after the 2020 Halving corresponds to a rise of 426% .
Let's look at today's values;
From its level 500 days before the 2024 Halving period, we see that Bitcoin has only experienced a 5% drop, just like the previous one.
Are you thinking what I'm thinking?
It makes sense to start buying Bitcoin exactly 500 days before the Halving date, right? I don't see why not. So when is the next Halving? What is the date 500 days before?
Well, nobody knows that yet. Because it depends on the speed at which Bitcoin blocks are created, but it usually happens every 210,000 blocks . Assuming it's sometime in May-June 2028, that would put it between December 2026 and January 2027. When that date approaches, we will bring up this graph again and revise our predictions. Don't forget to save this post for that.
Now...
Although it is difficult to comment on how much Bitcoin testing the ATH level and making a new peak before the Halving due to ETF news will change this statistic, I think it would not be wrong to say that the endless declines since the peak are related to this.
While Bitcoin has not yet seen a new peak after the 2024 Halving, it has only risen by 10%.
What is the 500th day after the 2024 Halving?
September 1, 2025
As seen last time, on the eve of the 500th day after the Halving, Bitcoin saw a new high and fell sharply from there. It then continued to rise and made another new high. So day 500 is just before the second new high, as you can see on the chart. So if something like this happens in the next cycle, is your psychology ready for it? Can you wait that long? Or would you wait?
Let's meet in the comments...
By the way, if you like my article, I would appreciate if you can like and share it to support me.
"Powell and Trump's Pump" & New Study Showing BTC Fractal TargetWe had a nice pump in the markets today, stemming from J Powell's comments from Jackson Hole signalling not only one rate cut coming in September, but likely multiple (not priced in).
RFK also kinda sorta endorsed trump but still kept the Hail Mary option open for him to still get elected (Don't hold your breath, although I'd love to see that. RFK had a great speech at Bitcion 2024 and is a good man, but doesn't have the votes).
Markets reacted positively and some are boldly saying 'The Bull Run is Back'. 🚀
We shall see.
Students of Hurst's Market Cycles will also note that this week (tomorrow the 24th preciely) should be the weekly cycle low, so that could also be a contributing factor.
In this video, I briefly review the NASDAQ:IBIT chart showing one open unfilled gap lower (this can take awhile and so this is still on the table) as well as the new BTC fractal study I mentioned.
(But I forgot to share the DXY chart showing that we're testing the important 101 level, which is looking like it's going to cut right through it like a hot knife through buttah).
Most interesting...
Check out this fractal overlay I pulled from earlier in the year, showing the possible path of Bitcoin higher, and that almost exacly lines up with current / previous trendline S&R as well as my Fibonacci price target of $150, which you can review in some of my other posts here...
Finally seems like we'll have the wind at our back soon.
While this was a nice breeze, I'm going to remain cautious and wait for confirmations higher to go 'all in'. For me, that's seeing confirmed closing price action above $74k.
See the video for some specific / excact entries.
If you'd like me to cover anything in future videos, leave a comment below.
Thanks again to the TradingView team for choosing my last video as 'Editors Pick' today! 🚀🚀
Keep up the good work guys!
¿A title? Bitcoin $68,000 then $43,000 AND THEN $85,500!!!!Today, August 23rd, Powell sent a crucial message regarding what’s coming in September: The Fed is going to cut interest rates. In his words, “ The time has come for policy to adjust .” This suggests that Bitcoin could potentially reach its next historic high.
BUT NOT YET!
According to technical analysis, I see that the market has taken liquidity at five key points that form a channel. If Bitcoin reaches $68,000, it is likely to drop to at least $43,000, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level in a major wave.
Following this path, we could see Bitcoin reach the next historic high, around $85,500. With a potential for a 100% profit and a 17% loss at these levels, I believe this presents a good opportunity.
WHEN? We’ll see...
PD: It could be decided with the elections!!!
¿A title? Bitcoin $68,000 then $43,000 AND THEN $85,500!!!!Today, August 23rd, Powell sent a crucial message regarding what’s coming in September: The Fed is going to cut interest rates. In his words, “ The time has come for policy to adjust .” This suggests that Bitcoin could potentially reach its next historic high.
BUT NOT YET!
According to technical analysis, I see that the market has taken liquidity at five key points that form a channel. If Bitcoin reaches $68,000, it is likely to drop to at least $43,000, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level in a major wave.
Following this path, we could see Bitcoin reach the next historic high, around $85,500. With a potential for a 100% profit and a 17% loss at these levels, I believe this presents a good opportunity.
WHEN? We’ll see...
PD: It could be decided with the elections!!!
Bitcoin, is the bull run continuing soon?I expect the Bitcoin price to consolidate in the 53,600 - 49,000 zone, after the price is fixed in the zone, I expect to see a price increase and a high probability of breaking the maximum.
If you look at the Online LTH Realized Profit 7D metric, you can see a similar seasonality of the market that was in 2021, in addition to the online metric, I conducted a deeper study and found many arguments that confirm my expectations, there is a low probability that the price will drop below 48,900, I do not expect this level to break through.