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BTC Bullish Outlook Based on BVIV Indicators (Oct 2024)Overview: I’m seeing a strong bullish signal for BTC based on the latest data from the Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) and related indicators. Here’s why I believe the current setup favors a potential move to the upside. Technical Analysis: BVIV (Volatility Index): The BVIV is trending lower, signaling that implied volatility is cooling off. Historically, declining volatility often precedes price stabilization, which can be a precursor to a bullish breakout. While the Z-score hasn't crossed below 0 yet, the trend suggests that this could soon happen, reinforcing the idea that the market is bottoming out. ATR Percentage: The ATR% is nearing the midline, and a break above it could indicate the start of increasing price action. This typically signals momentum building up for a larger directional move. Given that volatility is cooling off, I interpret this as a bullish signal for BTC. Z-Score of RSI: The Z-score of RSI has yet to cross below 0, but it is approaching the threshold. Once it does, it would further confirm the dissipation of overbought conditions and signal that bearish momentum is fading, adding strength to the bullish case. Macro Factors Supporting BTC: Institutional Adoption: With Bitcoin ETFs progressing toward approval and increasing institutional interest, BTC is poised to benefit from a shift in market sentiment. Global Liquidity Trends: Central banks have recently softened their stance on aggressive rate hikes, improving liquidity conditions for risk-on assets like BTC. This shift could support a price recovery. Safe-Haven Narrative: As inflation remains a concern, Bitcoin could reclaim its narrative as a store of value, particularly if traditional assets struggle amidst ongoing economic uncertainty. Post-Halving Cycle: Bitcoin is now several months into its post-halving phase (April 2024), a period that has historically seen significant price appreciation as supply constraints kick in. We could see this dynamic continue to play out, especially as the market anticipates further price gains in the months to come. Conclusion: Based on the alignment of these technical indicators and broader macroeconomic factors, I believe BTC is poised for a bullish breakout. While implied volatility is decreasing, rising ATR% suggests momentum is building for a strong move. I’ll be watching for confirmation of the Z-score crossing below 0 on the BVIV and ATR% breaking above the midline for additional conviction.
VOLMEX:BVIVLong
by LordGiorgioCapital
Bitcoin : Downtrend Line Breakout CRYPTO:BTCUSD Bitcoin : Uptrend signs can be seen in the short-term After the price correction, it hit the resistance zone of $66,000 to the $60,000 support area Now the corrective trend line has been broken and there is a possibility of short-term price uptrend The uptrend wave continues until the support 60k is broken Trading Setup: There is a Trading Signal to Buy in BTCUSDT Bitcoin (4h) Traders can open their Buy Trades NOW ⬆️Buy now or Buy on 61300.00 ⭕️SL @ 59700.00 🔵TP1 @ 65500.00 🔵TP2 @ 69000.00 🔵TP3 @ 73500.00 Previous signa l What are these signals based on? Classical Technical Analysis Price Action Candlesticks Fibonacci RSI Moving Average , Ichimoku , Bollinger Bands Risk Warning Trading Forex, CFDs, Crypto, Futures, and Stocks involve a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. If you liked our ideas, please support us with your likes 👍 and comments .
Long
by pullbacksignal
8
BTC 4 YEAR CYCLEDear Traders and CryptoLovers! Are we Bullish or Bearish? We actually want traders to turn bearish and be in shorts because when the market goes up, as per the cycle (explained in detail below), they get liquidated, and shorts buy long. These create bear tears. Bear tears are the SALTY goodness that pushes the market higher! Bitcoin is currently in a pivotal stage, aligning with its 4-year cycle, during which BTC rises after 6 months of sideways accumulation. Looking back at previous cycles, particularly in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin showed similar patterns before major breakout rallies. In both cases, Bitcoin went through a strong bullish phase shortly after the halving event, leading to all-time highs. We had a new ATH prior to this point in this cycle, and this is because we are potentially in wave 3 of the supercycle; for those who are aware of ELLIOTT WAVE Cycles, my idea here has been very accurate. Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is primarily driven by the halving event, a key feature of its protocol that occurs approximately every four years (or every 210,000 blocks). During this event, the block reward given to miners for validating transactions is cut in half. This reduction in the rate of new Bitcoin entering circulation creates a supply shock, which typically has a profound impact on Bitcoin’s price. Here’s how the 4-year cycle works: 1. Halving Event (Supply Shock): Bitcoin's maximum supply is capped at 21 million coins. To manage this limited supply, the halving event ensures that fewer Bitcoin are introduced over time. The block reward started at 50 BTC in 2009, and it halves approximately every four years. 2009, 50 BTC 2012, 25 BTC 2016, 12.5 BTC 2020, 6.25 BTC 2024, 3.125 BTC This reduction in supply increases scarcity, and as demand either remains stable or rises, the price tends to increase. 2. Phases of the 4-Year Cycle: The halving drives the Bitcoin market through four main phases: Accumulation Phase (Post-Crash) : Bitcoin usually experiences a bear market after a peak. During this time, investors begin to accumulate BTC at lower prices. Pre-Halving Accumulation (Consolidation) : Prices tend to consolidate in the 1-1.5 years leading up to the halving. Investors anticipate the reduced supply, and confidence builds as the market prepares for a new bull run. Post-Halving Bull Run : After the halving event, there’s typically a massive price surge as scarcity becomes more apparent and demand spikes from retail and institutional investors. This phase usually brings Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Blow-Off Top and Bear Market : Once Bitcoin reaches extreme heights, there is usually a correction or "blow-off top," followed by a bear market. The cycle resets as prices gradually stabilise, and the accumulation phase begins again. 3. Economic Principles of Supply and Demand: The halving reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is produced, cutting supply. If demand remains strong or increases, the price rises sharply because fewer coins are available. This pattern leads to predictable price movements around the halving events, fueling the 4-year cycle. 4. Investor Psychology: Market psychology also drives Bitcoin's cyclical nature. Many investors recognise the halving as a bullish catalyst, which attracts more interest and buying activity as the event approaches. As prices rise post-halving, media attention increases, drawing new participants into the market. This often results in an explosive bull run, followed by an inevitable correction. Historical Context: Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle has played out repeatedly since its inception: 2012 Halving : Preceded by a major bull run in 2013, where Bitcoin reached over $1,000 before crashing. 2016 Halving : Led to the 2017 bull market, where Bitcoin hit nearly $20,000 before the market correction. 2020 Halving : Triggered the 2020-2021 bull market, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of around $69,000 in November 2021. The recent price action, especially in “Uptober,” shows that the market is waking up. Historically, this month has often been bullish for Bitcoin. With rising institutional interest, especially ETFs, clearer regulatory frameworks, and a growing awareness of Bitcoin's role as a hedge against inflation, the potential for a breakout seems stronger than ever. If Bitcoin follows its past cycles, we may be on the verge of a significant move upward. While there's always risk involved, the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market structure suggests that the next rally could take us to new heights, making this a crucial time to be BUYING THE DIP! (and I don't mean hummus) While I am seeing many say this cycle is different, I don't think it is. And if I am wrong, I have a stop loss, and so should you! The only way to survive this market is to protect your capital. Safe trading and cheer's to a HUGE year ahead. ♥️ Lisa
Long
by LisaNEdwards
3
Bitcoin/USDT on 1-hour timeframe Binance. TA+Trade plan by B.F.Descending Channel Pattern: The price is trading within a descending channel. The upper boundary (resistance) and lower boundary (support) are clearly defined. Descending channels typically indicate a bearish trend, but if the price breaks out of the channel, it could signal a trend reversal. Possible Breakout to the Upside: The chart highlights the possibility of a breakout above the descending channel, supported by a bullish blue trendline. The breakout area is noted around the 61,758.48 USDT level. If the price moves past this level, it could lead to further upside momentum. Volume: Volume appears moderate, indicating that the market has yet to show a strong momentum surge. A breakout on higher volume would confirm the upside move. Indicators: VMC Cipher B Divergences: This indicator shows multiple green dots, suggesting bullish divergence and potential reversal. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is in neutral territory around 58.66, indicating no extreme overbought or oversold conditions. If it crosses above 60, it may confirm the bullish breakout. Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic shows a bullish signal, with the %K line at 90.29 and the %D line at 88.42. However, it’s approaching overbought territory, suggesting caution as there could be short-term pullbacks. HMA Histogram: Shows a slight downtrend in the short term (negative values). If it turns positive, it could confirm the breakout move. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance 1: 61,758.48 USDT (upper boundary of the channel and key breakout level). Resistance 2: 64,591.15 USDT (previous high, and next major resistance zone if the breakout happens). Support 1: 60,301.68 USDT (lower boundary of the channel). Support 2: 59,000 USDT (psychological support and lower range of the broader consolidation). Trading Plan: Long Position: Entry: Enter a long position if the price breaks and closes above 61,758.48 USDT with a confirmation candle (preferably on higher volume). Stop Loss: Set a stop loss below the descending channel or at the 60,301.68 USDT support level to limit downside risk. Take Profit: The initial target would be the next resistance at 64,591.15 USDT. Partial profits can be taken here, with further upside potential if momentum remains strong. Short Position (in case of failure to break out): Entry: If the price fails to break above 61,758.48 USDT and falls back into the channel, consider a short position targeting the support at 60,301.68 USDT. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss slightly above 61,758.48 USDT to protect against an unexpected breakout. Take Profit: Target the lower boundary of the channel and potentially below, near 59,000 USDT. Conclusion: The overall structure indicates a potential breakout from a descending channel. A confirmed breakout above 61,758.48 USDT could signal a bullish reversal and upside toward 64,591.15 USDT. However, if the price fails to break out, it may continue to trade within the channel, offering short-term trading opportunities. Monitoring volume and key levels (especially 61,758.48 USDT) will be crucial for confirming the next major move.
Long
by elfabiiani
1
COIN Technical Analysis: Wave (4) Correction Nearing CompletionTechnical analysis chart of the cryptocurrency "COIN" using Elliott Wave Theory. Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis method that suggests that financial markets move in predictable patterns based on a series of five waves. The information provided in this post is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. There is a risk of being completely wrong, and users are warned not to trade or invest solely based on this study. The content is not an advisory and does not guarantee profits. We are not responsible for any kind of profits and losses; individuals should consult a financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. Based on the chart, we had identified a potential impulse wave pattern from January 2023 to the present. An impulse wave pattern consists of five waves, with each wave labeled (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5). Wave (1): This is the first wave in the impulse pattern and is typically a strong upward trend. In this case, wave (1) appears to have run from the low near 31-32 to a high near 114. Wave (2): This is a corrective wave that moves in the opposite direction of wave (1). It is typically a retracement of wave (1), but it can also extend beyond the starting point of wave (1). Wave (2) appears to have run from the high near 114 to a low near 69. Wave (3): This is the second wave in the impulse pattern and is typically a strongest upward trend that extends most of times. Wave (3) given move from 69 to 283 Wave (4): This is a corrective wave that moves in the opposite direction of wave (3). It is typically a retracement of wave (3). Wave (4) is currently in progress, but at verge of completion now any time. Wave (5): This is the final wave in the impulse pattern and is typically a strong upward trend that completes the pattern. Wave (5) is expected to start soon and could potentially reach the levels of 300 plus. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by RK_Chaarts
BTC at Critical Support: Strategy for the Breakout or Further DeBTC is currently holding strong around the $60K support level, but the overall trend is still showing a downtrend on the hourly chart, with the price trading below the EMA21, EMA50, and EMA200. The market is at a crucial point, and patience is key to avoiding unnecessary risks. Here's my detailed strategy for short-term trading in this scenario: 1. If the trend breaks out: - I'll wait for confirmation of a breakout above the current trendline. After the breakout, I will enter a buy position on the pullback, targeting an entry around $60,900 and a stop-loss set just below $59,900 to manage my risk. - My take-profit target 1 is $63,100, and my take-profit target 2 is $66,000, where I expect potential resistance. This setup ensures I'm following the trend with minimal risk. 2. If the downtrend continues: I'll hold off on any immediate trades and wait for the price to reach the next support zone around $58K-$57K, as highlighted on the daily chart. - I will only consider entering a position if the price manages to go above the EMA21 and EMA50, signalling potential bullish momentum and a possible trend reversal. If the price breaks below $57K, I’ll reassess the situation, as further downside to GETTEX:52K -$50K could be possible. Advice: It’s important to remember that no trade is guaranteed, and risk is always involved. My approach is to wait for clear signals before entering any position, ensuring the risk is managed correctly. I’ll also closely watch for volume spikes and any potential news influencing market movement. Finally, with the market being highly volatile, this is *not financial advice*. I always recommend doing your own research and making sure you're comfortable with the risk involved before making any trade decisions. Stay patient, stay disciplined, and remember that sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t take! #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoCommunity #RiskManagement #NotFinancialAdvice
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Malaysiancryptocommunity
3
BTCUSD I 1 hr double bottom formation and long opportunityWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** BTCUSD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BKTradingAcademy
12
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 4h timeframe TA+Trade plan by BFDescending Broadening Wedge Pattern Description: This is a bullish reversal pattern. As shown, the price of Bitcoin is testing the support line of the wedge, which typically suggests that a breakout to the upside might occur after the completion of the pattern. Potential Breakout: The chart indicates a potential breakout above the upper boundary (resistance line) of the wedge, possibly signaling the beginning of an upward move. Key Support and Resistance Levels Support Levels: 60,301.68 USDT: This is a near-term support zone where price could find buyers if it revisits these levels. 53,988.89 USDT: A deeper support level shown on the chart, which might come into play if Bitcoin faces a significant sell-off. Resistance Levels: 64,591.15 USDT: A strong resistance zone that Bitcoin would need to surpass for a sustained upward move. 68,556.87 USDT: A higher resistance level that could become the target in the case of a breakout. Indicators Analysis VMC Cipher B Divergences: It appears to show divergence. A green dot below indicates potential bullish divergence, suggesting price may increase soon. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 31.48, which indicates oversold conditions. This level usually implies that the asset is undervalued, signaling a potential buying opportunity. Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic reading is at 23.61 (blue line) and 20.43 (red line), indicating oversold conditions as well. This adds further strength to the bullish argument, aligning with the RSI's signals. HMA (Hull Moving Average): The HMA histogram shows green bars, suggesting a bullish trend might be forming or momentum is starting to shift to the upside. Trading Plan Long Position Setup Entry: A breakout above the resistance line of the descending broadening wedge would be the ideal entry signal. You may consider entering around 61,750–62,000 USDT. Take Profit: First take-profit target could be around 64,591 USDT (resistance zone). If momentum is strong, a secondary target can be set around 68,556 USDT. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just below the recent low at 60,000 USDT, as a break below this level would invalidate the bullish wedge pattern and signal further downside. Alternative (Cautious) Approach Wait for confirmation of a breakout with a strong candle close above the wedge's resistance line, paired with bullish indicators on lower timeframes (e.g., 1-hour chart). Risk Management: Risk no more than 1-2% of your portfolio on this trade, adjusting position size accordingly. Final Considerations Monitor for any false breakouts as Bitcoin could retest the wedge's resistance line before confirming the breakout. Keep an eye on volume; a breakout with strong volume increases the likelihood of the wedge pattern playing out successfully.
Long
by elfabiiani
BITCOIN - must happen to see new ATHAs I told you in my previous analysis of Bitcoin, it is a triple bottom and it will rise and it is the end of bear market, while the majority expected its decline to continue from 57k to 40k levels. Check out my analysis and drawing the chart attached below and you will see for yourself that what I say is true... remmember i see what others don't Now I tell you! Bitcoin is going to reclaim the 200MA the last time Bitcoin tried this was in august 2024 but it ended up being a fakout leading dumpto 52.5k now it's trying to reclaim the 200MA again and if it can hold this level we could be looking for a massive breakout a head this analysis will be constantly updated , so follow us to receive all news updates Best regards Ceciliones🎯
Long
by ceciliones
2
BTC & Crypto Market Forecast. 4 Yr Cycle Top and Elliot WavesIn this video, I've pulled up an old chart from 2022 I've had on my desktop (not my original chart) that shows potential Waves 3-5 for Bitcion and the 4 year cycle high time targets. In my new chart, I've re-created this showing that we're ahead of schedule from the dark study, and the 4 year past cycle time targets for reaching ATH around 539 days after the halving. But as we know, we hit ATH's this cycle already BEFORE the halving, so it's unclear how that's going to affect the next phase. It would certainly make sense, that everybody (Big money, smart money and even us dumb money retail traders) will be looking to 'go all in' early... But also to GET OUT early. Remember, it's a game of musical chairs.. and the music is speeding up. For these reasons, and other global economic and political influences... I think we could STILL see a left-translated cycle and a parabolic bull rally going into Dec of this year... Unsure if that would be THE Top, but I'd be looking for some profit taking and correction there, which most likely WILL LOOK like the top. But may not actually be. We may still see the 4 year cycle play out, and continue to push higher until October '25 as the original study suggests (539 days post-halving). On the one hand, some are suggesting a deflationary market bust in early 2025 for both the stock market and Bitcoin / crypto. We'll have to wait and see. But it does look like we're experiencing the Wave 4 pullback, and poised to beging the final Wave 5 phase of the bull-run. What do you think? Would appreciate any likes, comments, or compliments below. Cheer always welcome! To the moon 🚀
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BrettFogle
UPTOBER HERE WE COME!Dear Traders and CryptoLovers! October is here, and that means one thing—Uptober! Historically, October has been a bullish month for crypto, and with signs of a Bullish Harami forming, we could be gearing up for a potential reversal in the market. The pattern we're watching suggests a possible shift from the recent downtrend. The key here is the smaller second candle closing within the first, signalling the bulls might be stepping back in. While the start of the month could be choppy, the confirmation of this pattern by the October monthly close could be the push needed for a strong rally ahead. Bullish Harami: a bullish reversal pattern (which occurs after a downtrend). When it appears in a downtrend, it is a bullish signal. Recognition Criteria To identify a general Harami pattern, look for the following criteria: There is a prevailing trend, whether it’s an uptrend or a downtrend. The first candle must continue in the direction of the current trend. It will be the same colour as the current trend and have a long body. The second candle must be contained within the first candle’s body (so it opens and closes within the first candle's body). It can be either colour, and it will have a smaller body. Only the body needs to be contained within the first candle; the wicks are irrelevant. The next candle confirms this pattern (this is the October monthly close) If you have any questions, please reach out!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by LisaNEdwards
2