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3 Scenario Outcome for BitcoinSpeculation is just that, only speculation. Ideas to guide your trading and/or investing journey. I put a good amount of time in researching and charting over the last year to specifically develop this thesis. I hope you enjoy and please like and share, even if it's to ridicule my analysis! With that said, it looks like there are three scenarios that are 'most' likely to play out over the next 2 years: Scenario 1: Worst case (Red Path). Bitcoin ETF's are denied and/or a major market crash happens beginning Dec '23 or Q1/Q2 '24. Targets are the lower channel back at bear market bottom, the Value area low (Blue) & nPOC (naked point of control sitting above VAL) or below, to include CME gaps of a. 20.3k b. 9.7k & c. 3k at the very worst. 12k bears will rejoice. I for one will be selling the farm and my first born at 9k or below. Scenario 2. Bitcoin ETF delays (Orange Path). The range continues with a top off near the Macro VAH at about where price stands as of today, 11/11/23 @ 37k-39k. Price would most likely seek to validate back to fair value at 32k, and then retest down to 20.3k for the CME gap fill creating one of the most powerful patterns as an inverse head and shoulders. Given the channels, this seems the most likely with an upside target to the VAH again near dump of April/May '22 and now resistance at 48k. Target is summer of '24. Scenario 3. Moon boy status (Green Path). This means the Bitcoin ETF was approved prior to any fundamental problems (ie FTX 2.0, WW3, declared depression, etc) and no need to wait for price to come down past 32k, possibly ever. B. There is the possibility of a priced in ETF scenario that allows for the channel to stay valid. In this case, if price action does not moon over 48k up to ATH's, it likely sets a re-accumulation zone above 48k, playing within the upper channel, with a last dip into the 30k's before we see ATH's. Either way, Bitcoin is ready to rock and roll. Now to the less juicy part of this bull run. Give the diminishing returns as most assets have as they age, it looks like 100k is going to be the biggest and baddest of all resistance from a percentage standpoint. Gone are the days of 33k% gains. From the top of each market cycle to the next top we go from over 1k% to now 250-ish% last cycle. Here's where I 'm at from a charting and fundamental stance: Bitcoin gets a 44-54% blow off top (Shown in price range) from previous ATH's up to 100k-ish. If it's more, great, sell because you've been stacking or you're long. Buy your lambo, more power to you. However, given the current M2 issue, loan maturations (refinancing in '25 from 2.9% to almost 5%) as well as the overall credit and savings crisis, Bitcoin's blow off top could be in the 80-88k range. That would put the total market crypto cap at ATH's of 3.5-4 Trillion range. If Chairman Powell decides to turn the printers on for 2025, then some of the moon boi's out there may see 150k, so we all win anyway from a plebs perspective. #Stackon
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Zseries33
2
BITCOIN: A REVERSAL OR DOWNWARD MOVE.Hello readers, Welcome to this quick update on BTC in a 6-hour timeframe. In my previous update, I mentioned the $27.3k resistance level which BTC clearly didn't manage to break out, resulting in a rejection toward $26k. If this pattern continues, we can expect BTC to reach down to FWB:25K or $24.5k. This could be the possible odd scenario for BTC. Talking about the positive side, a trend reversal and breakout above FWB:27K could turn the table around. The 21 MA which was acting as a support had turned out to be resistant to BTC. A miraculous reversal could save BTC from falling any further down. What is your expectation in this current situation? Let me know in the comments. Best regards, Team Dexter.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Dexter_The_Trader
2
BTC Cycles On-Chain & MarketIn this multi-timeframe chart we look at the current BTCUSD market cycle compared to the previous cycles using both on-chain and market data. On the main pane is BTCUSD on the weekly scale. On top of the price is a on-chain grid of the BTCUSD realized price multiplied. The solid silver bottom grid line is the BTCUSD realized price with the solid red line on top of the grid being 20x of the BTCUSD realized price. On the price scale you will notice the on-chain BTCUSD realized price at 20x level successfully shows peak oversold cycle periods. An investor could use this metric as a market top selling point when the price action is above the solid red line and then crosses under. Below the price pane is two additional panes showing custom market cycle RSI values. The first pane shows my DB ZPS RSI indicator set to 4 month timeframe with a length value of 2. The second pane lowest on the chart panel shows a custom zero lag smoothed RSI output for the on-chain realized price. The investor will notice both RSI panes are very similar. Take note that the top RSI pane is based purely on market data while the second (lower) RSI value is based on-chain realized price. The curves of both RSI panes act as confirmation to each other of the cycle of BTCUSD from the 4 month level. Both RSI panes use a custom scale with oversold being at 95 plus and undersold at 20 or less. The RSI panes also use a color indicator that is based on a zero lag smoothing of the core value to show no lag changes. Maroon indicates down pressure, blue indicates change in direction building, green indicates upward pressure, orange indicates change in direction building (top forming). An investor could use these RSI values to know when the market top will happen within a 4 month period by looking for a cross under 95 value (any color). The most ideal time to buy for an investor would be when the RSI value is green in color with a less than or equal to 20 in value. The aim of sharing this high level BTCUSD market cycle idea is to give investors an idea of the current and historical market cycles of BTCUSD. If these metrics are correct, we are in the start of a strong bull cycle.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by thefluffyones
BTC Head and Shoulders Break Target HitWith today's price action Bitcoin has come down to test the 25,300 level. This has been a very important resistance level in the past that once it broke above this level, it needed to come back and retest as support. As we can see, there's also an upward trending trading range / trend channel (In Blue) that has held well twice before. Hopefully BTC bounces here and continues higher, ideally getting through the $32 K level. Past $32k to the upside, gives a clear path to FWB:48K to $50K, the Golden Pocket retrace of the market cycle high to low. But there are a sizable order blocks above between FWB:29K and FWB:31K that will act as a formidable resistance area (not shown). So this is going to be interesting battle. We still have an unfilled CME gap around $20k also. And there's a larger Head and Shoulders forming on the weekly chart, that if we lose the neckline support points to a re-test of the recent market cycle lows down to $16k. Our indicators show that the bottom is in, but could still be re-tested. But my bias for now is towards the upside. What do you think?
by BrettFogle
1