Bitcoin post-Halving: Possible ScenariosFor those of you who don't know me, I have two obsessions in life: AI and cryptocurrencies. Not necessarily in this order.
With the BTC Halving, I decided to explore the possible future scenarios—and to analyze the behavior of BTC during the past halvings. Here are some observations—of course, I can be wrong:
𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐌𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬:
Post-halving, the price trajectory has shown notable patterns:
• After the first halving in 2012, BTC price skyrocketed by approximately 9,900%, peaking about a year later.
• The second halving in 2016 led to a price increase of about 2,946%, taking 17 months to reach its peak.
• Following the third halving in 2020, the increase was more subdued at around 679%, with the peak occurring 17 months later.
𝐄𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐯𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐃𝐲𝐧𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐬:
The form of the price line across these halvings demonstrates a market that is evolving and becoming more resilient.
Each post-halving period shows a gradual slowing down of volatility and price spikes, suggesting an increasing influence of institutional investors who tend to have longer investment horizons and more strategic approaches.
This trend indicates a shift from speculative retail behavior to a more stabilized and mature market.
𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬:
In the short run, there should be a correction. This might lead the price of BTC below $60,000. However, it seems that the cycle wasn't complete, and the sideways movement right before the halving was just a short "test" that resulted in a short accumulation phase.
Since the cycle wasn't completed, BTC should at least reach $128,000 in the coming months; however, be aware that the real downfall might still be yet to come!
