Bitcoin- What does this good news/ bad news cycle mean?We continue to see all positive signs for long-term traders. A major event occurred this week that suggests we are still on an upward trend. However, it's important to keep in mind that 2023 will likely be a year of sideways movement, followed by upswings, and then 60% pullbacks. This cycle is expected to conclude in the second quarter of 2024. Please take the time to Boost this idea.
Let's take a look at the weekly timeframe and note that the rejection this time was slight. In contrast, the first rejection back in mid-August of 2022 was strong. I see indications that Bitcoin will soon push over the 50 and 200 MA. Once this happens, if we remain above the 200ma for three weeks, it will confirm a cemented recovery.
So, what is the major event that happened this week?
Looking at the lines-only chart, we can see that the last MA (the 100-day moving average) has finally crossed over the 200MA. Below, you can see that the 10MA, 20MA, 50MA, and 100MA are now lined up above the 200MA.
What might the months after this event look like? Take a look below.
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#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #15!!! IT IS IMPORTANT TO READ THE DESCRIPTION !!!
Good afternoon , dear colleagues!
I want to continue my opinion and vision of the current situation on the cryptocurrency market on the example of this instrument.
I am continuing the deal open on the previous idea. There is a buyer present, everything is going according to plan. I expect an impulsive movement, by Monday, March 06, 2023 , I expect bitcoin at 25800 .
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success, and remember:
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn .
#Bitcoin
Bitcoin showing strong upside to come to $31,078!Since the middle of August 2022, the daily chart of Bitcoin has moved in a sideways consolidation formation called a Cup and Handle.
This is where the price creates two rounding bottoms.
The first rounding bottom on the left, is larger and it resembles the cup.
The second rounding bottom, on the right, is a lot smaller (Less than 50% of the Cup’s height) and it is considered the handle.
We then had a price breakout above the top of the pattern known as the Brim level.
This means, the buyers and demand side has won, as there is a break in
structure to the upside.
My first target for Bitcoin to head to is at the next resistance level at $31,078.
The second indicator that confirms the upside is the Moving Averages that I use to spot an up, down and sideways trend.
There are three Moving Averages I use 7 (red), 21 (blue) and 200 (black).
All you need to know is when the 7MA is above the 21MA and above the 200MA, the trend is bullish and is in an uptrend.
My customised indicator also shows a Green background, as you can see in the chart. This confirms the major upside to come.
For the first time in two years, Bitcoin has just given its first major buy signal.
On the 8th of November 2021 Bitcoin reached a high of over $67,850 per coin.
Since then, it’s experienced a ‘Crypto winter’.
During this period, it dropped 77% to a low of $15,170.
We had a number of factors that destroyed the confidence of many crypto investors including:
• The Luna crash in mid 2022
• The FTX collapse in November which handled more than $1billion transactions each day.
• Ethereum’s fall
Never mind the external factors globally that contributed to the fall.
But now, the season appears to be changing. In fact, we could be moving from a crypto winter to a crypto summer!
Since the start of 2023, Bitcoin has recovered almost 50% and is trading above $24,900 again.
This is the highest price level since June 2022.
And that’s just the start.
Why Layoffs may be a good thing for Bitcoin and Crypto SummerQ. “Can layoffs in the Crypto space be what's needed for the next Crypto-Summer and Crypto Boom?”
A. While layoffs are never pleasant for those affected and for the price, I do believe they can have positive effects on the crypto market in the future.
Here are four reasons why:
Reason #1: There are less costs for the companies
Laying off workers can help crypto companies reduce costs. There’ll be less salaries to pay, less incentives, less commissions etc…
And this will allow them to weather the current downturn and emerge stronger when the market eventually recovers.
This cost-cutting could potentially help companies maintain their positions in the market and remain competitive.
Reason #2: They can focus on their core competencies
When companies layoff workers, this can also help companies refocus on what they need to focus on and work on in other departments.
This can help crypto companies streamline their operations and become more efficient, which can improve their chances of success in the long term.
Reason #3: More money for innovation
With the company cutting costs and with the companies able to gain more income, this is good for R&D.
With their research and development they can focus their attention on new innovations and recreations with their current offerings.
And they may be able to acquire new technologies, which will attract new investors to buy, that can help them remain competitive in the market.
Reason #4: Weed out the less needed
The recent layoffs may help weed out weaker, less competitive and less needed workers in the market.
This will also help them gain accountability and provide the current work force with better projects, training and prepare them for a well-run and better positioned future.
Market efficiencyWhat is market efficiency, how does it affect earning potential?
What does "market efficiency" mean, and how does it affect the chances of making money?
Today, we'll talk about how well the crypto market works. We'll look at how quickly it takes in new information and how you can make money from price changes. We are also looking to the near future, when efficiency will go up and there will be less cash and inefficient niches.
How Does the Market Work?
The speed and accuracy with which information about projects and assets is added to the price shows how efficient the market is. This happens almost right away in markets that work well, but it takes a long time or doesn't happen at all in markets that don't work well.
For instance, the US stock market in 1906 is not very good at what it does. Then there was an earthquake in San Francisco, and only three days later, the shares of the Pacific Railroad fell apart. The news from east to west moved too slowly.
In 2022, the oil market works well. As soon as OPEC and other countries talked about how they could work together to set a high cap on oil prices, the price went up. That is, no one even raised the ceiling. The price goes up right away because OPEC+ lets this happen.
In general, the idea of how well a market works is a theory. Economists have been arguing about whether or not it works for the past 50 years. This idea comes in three different forms.
Weak Efficient Market Hypothesis: All market information from the past is included in the price of an asset.
Average Efficient Market Hypothesis: The price of an asset includes all market information from the past and all publicly available information from the present.
Strong Efficient Market Hypothesis: The price of an asset takes into account all market information from the past, public information from the present, and insider information.
We won't keep going back and forth between ideas. The article only needs to know that efficiency is a measurement of how quickly and accurately the market takes in information. Another question is where this information came from.
What determines how well the market works?
The most important thing is just one thing: the number of trades and how liquid the market is. The market will be more efficient if there are more transactions, and less efficient if there are less.
From the amount of money in the market, other things grow: the speed of transactions, the infrastructure, and the speed at which information comes out. But in general, they show up on their own when there are enough investors for someone to want to make money on investment infrastructure.
For instance, the elite art market doesn't work well. Not a lot of artists charge a lot for their paintings, and not a lot of people are willing to buy them. There, news moves slowly from person to person. The price is not set by the way the market works. Instead, it is set by haggling.
This also works in the stock markets. For "blue chips" like Apple, which are traded by the most investors, the difference in price between buy and sell orders is very small. This means that at any time, the market can very accurately figure out the fair value of the security.
Spreads widen where there is less liquidity, and it can be hard to figure out what a fair price is: it "walks" in the spread gap.
Here, by the way, the ideas of people who believe that markets take in information so quickly that it is impossible to make money on them fall apart.
Everything is simple: if markets are really so efficient that you can't make money by having more information, traders and capital would have left long ago, liquidity would have collapsed, markets would have become inefficient again, and capital would have returned.
But we don't talk about the theory here.
If you are interested in cryptocurrencies, why do you need to know this?
Yes, it is useful even if you are not interested in cryptocurrencies.
By definition, it's hard to make money in markets that work well. If the market is working well, it quickly takes in new information and reacts to what's going on around it. This means that any results of fundamental or technical analysis have already been factored into prices by other market participants. You can buy and sell things, but it will be like a casino.
It's easier to make money when markets don't work well. The less efficient a market is, the more likely it is that you can learn more about the other people in it, act faster, and make more money.
Can cryptocurrency be seen as a market that works well?
The article was written so that this math could be done. No, is the short answer. In one of the most recent studies, experts compared Bitcoin prices to the prices of gold, the S&P500, and the USD/EUR currency pair, which are all well-known assets.
The rate of price change was multiplied by the market capitalization to figure out how well the market worked.
It turned out that the crypto market is much smaller than traditional markets, but here information is "absorbed" much more quickly. This is because trading goes on 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and information spreads quickly. Also, it's not hard to start trading.
But trading in BTC is not as good as trading in traditional assets. It is clear that the efficiency of most other currencies is even lower, and somewhere in the NFT segment, it is much lower.
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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Bitcoin Jebating The Mega Dump!!Bulls Last BreathBTC/1H Trying to reach ~24.4
After yesterdays dump to the bottom of the rising broadening wedge (pink line) bitcoin is trying to go higher making a new high ~24.4 where lots of liquidation is.The pink support line is holding bitcoin so inorder to leave 23K there must be a big sell off that breaks through that support
After 24.4 (yellow circle) we could bleed down or cosolidate before NY market open for another leg down.SPX yesterday bled heavily so today it could continue.
Next stop around ~22.7 and if that doesnt hold its ~ 21.6- also expect a capitulation candle if SPX loses 3900.
Please Boost,Follow,Comment if you find it informative
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #14!!! IT IS IMPORTANT TO READ THE DESCRIPTION !!!
Good afternoon , dear colleagues!
I want to continue my opinion and vision of the current situation on the cryptocurrency market on the example of this instrument.
The current situation suggests that the asset may rise in price over the next week. For further gains to occur, professional operators and other market participants should keep the price above 22722 with possible false breakouts. After this formation, we will have all the doors open for further upward movement. Otherwise, we will see a decline to the next support price, where there will be demand at favorable levels.
Stay tuned for an update of the idea, there will be a continuation of the idea.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success, and remember:
Sometimes you win/ sometimes you learn.
#Bitcoin
P.S.
Consider the previous idea and search for an entry point.
Bitcoin Long Term possible fractal formedFrom the ATH in 2013, PA dropped till it touched the 50 EMA (red), it bounced off that and then. after 266 days, it went below the 50 EMA
84 days later, PA came back up from Under the EMA to test it as resistance, Got rejected and fell back
From when the PA went under the 50 to when it broke back above, was a total of 427 days
We seem to have reproduced a similar "pattern" since the high from April '21 and the end of the 427 days is in the week of 3 April
Currently, PA is just below the EMA, wicking up, testing
Maybe worth watching
Bitcoin Weekly Close RED - whats next ?The Bitcoin weekly candle closed red after the Bulls did try and push it to Green with some late trading - Even though they failed, it does show that Bitcoin really is 24 / 7 and things can happen at anytime. ALWAYS have safeguards in place
The week has also opened on a small red candle, so, whats in store ?
PA is now sitting on the 1.236 Fib line which should act as good support and there is strong support just below should it be challenged.
PA is also above the longer term diagonal resistance that came off the ATH, broken for the first time a few weeks ago and the fact that the Bears have failed to get PA back below shows a bright future, and there is little doubt that the Bears would like to see it below, a LONG way below.
We are still in the Long Term ascending channel and the sensible target for PA is the upper trendline at about £32K - As and when we reach that point, we would have to see whats possible, though, in honesty, I would expect to range just above it while PA cools off as the effort to get it there will make longer term MACD & RSI very overbought
Possibly one of the most Bullish signs on this weekly chart is that the MAYER MULTIPLE is back above. This, historically, has bee a sign that Bulls intend to reach higher and while its a lagging indicator, it shows strength. Look at the 2020 period, The line went above and continued to bounce till we reached ATH.
Looking ahead, PA could come back down to test new lines of support, maybe as low as that dashed diagonal line, but I doubt it
I think we Will range around the current area, Bulls providing support.
A push higher is possible though I would doubt it to be a large one, more a blip on the larger time frames
Bitcoin has been linked with DOW, S&P, GOLD and others, all depending on which goes up and down with BTC PA and to some extents, it is true, BTC PA does move with other markets, just not always the same one - But 99.9% of the Time, BTC will react in the opposite direction to the DXY
THAT is the one to watch and there can be little doubt that The DXY is not finished yet. The FED ( The DXY support group), which is NOT a Governmental organisation but more a group of 12 private bankers, TELLING government what it has decided to do.
They do not like Crypto in general but have begun to realise that they cannot beat it now. But they WILL continue to try and hurt it. Business is Business
So watch DXY like a Hawk.
stay safe and have a good Week everyone.
FTM Cup& Handle!KUCOIN:FTMUSDT
FTM is sitting in a 4h Cup & Handle.
Could print double bottom for bottoming out structure which would still be a higher low from previous double bottom.
Look to enter break level.
SPX at 200D as support though futures has opened so far.
If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
BTC Bull Flag Breakout or Re-Test of Cycle Lows?This monthly chart of Bitcoin shows we're either setting up for a Bull-Flag breakout, or potential breakdown to re-test the $15k-$16.5 lows.
Either way, I think the bottom is in or almost in.
The big questions is whether we see the re-test like in the 2015-2016 bottom, or push through and never look back like in 2019.
If we push higher here and have a daily close above $25,300 then it's likely a quick push higher to the $30k zone, where we'll see profit taking and a pull back to the new higher support.
Our proprietary ERI indicator (Green Arrow) is showing that the bottom is in (which also signaled Green in all 3 prior market cycle bottoms).
So we're waiting to see what happens in the coming weeks.
Our TSI indicator has also turned Green and heading higher. The confirmation will be the break above the 20% line on the monthly chart.
The third confirmation will be our Signal line turning from Red to Green, and crossing the mid-line (Olive).
These have been accurate in all prior market cycle bottoms, but as we all know, 'this time could be different'..
That being said, I trust our indicators and analysis... So we'll see.
Also waiting for the monthly MACD to break above the center line and turn Green.
Thoughts, comments, feedback? Please share below.
Updated Bitcoin Analysis#Bitcoin
We will explain in a plain and simple way, friends.
If Bitcoin cannot close the daily candles above the $25,250 level, we think that by starting the downward movement from this region, it will decrease to the $22,800 region in the first place.
If BTC closes below $22,800, the decline will continue until the $21,550 zone.
Keep an eye on Bitcoin when investing in altcoins.
Not Investment Advice.
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #13!!! IT IS IMPORTANT TO READ THE DESCRIPTION !!!
Good afternoon, dear colleagues!
I want to continue my opinion and vision of the current situation on the cryptocurrency market on the example of this instrument.
The previous goals were achieved, but under a different scenario. After the asset has been depreciated, we see a surge in volumes at the culmination of sales, followed by a false breakout of the level and the strength of the buyer. There is a setup that can be used to work with, I open a long and support the trade.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success, and remember:
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn .
#Bitcoin
BTCUSD ( High Probability BUY Setup SOON )* Here we can see clearly from our analysis if BTCUSD don't break our support trend line, we're going to be looking for BUY Setups in coming days & weeks,
* If we see a down trend & it breaks our support trend line, we believe it's going to be forming Inverse Head & Shoulder Reversal Pattern ( VvV ) before the big BULL run for BTCUSD this Summer,
* As for us we won't be looking to SELL BTCUSD this coming days or weeks, instead we'll be waiting for the BULL run on our favourite Crypto Currency to trade,
* We're using H4 time frame for a clearer view of our analysis, hence we can't predict the duration of our analysis to occur on the charts,
* Keep a close eye on Crypto Currency King,
* Happy pip hunting traders,
* FX KILLA.
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #11.Good afternoon , dear colleagues!
I want to continue my opinion and vision of the current situation on the cryptocurrency market on the example of this instrument.
Over the weekend, I expect the cryptocurrency market to form a trading range and move into a phase of redistribution or re-accumulation. The formation is not ready for this period of time, I need confirmation.
What are your thoughts on this asset?
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success, and remember:
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn .
#Bitcoin - thoughts out loud #12Good afternoon , dear colleagues!
I want to continue my opinion and vision of the current situation on the cryptocurrency market on the example of this instrument.
And in continuation...
In this phase of the market, we have upthrust, which may indicate that we are witnessing a distribution, but there is no confirmation at this time.
I expect the price to be in the range of 25300 - 25600 , after which the market will settle everything.
Thank you all for your attention, I wish you success, and remember:
Sometimes you win /sometimes you learn.
Bitcoin -> Don't Get Caught UpHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe Bitcoin and basically the whole crypto market had a quite nice pump over the past couple of weeks.
As we are speaking Bitcoin is now retesting weekly previous resistance and is already starting the expected rejection towards the downside so I am now just waiting for a retest of the next previous support zone before then starting another push towards the upside from there.
On the daily timeframe Bitcoin is currently breaking below a previous structure area, so market structure is now bearish, but also here I am just waiting for a retest of the previous low and some bullish confirmation before Bitcoin will then create the next bullish impulse, heading for a higher high.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset: