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Bitcoin heading towards 30000As I mentioned in previous analysis Bitcoin has some support near 40000 Bitcoin respected the support and bounce about 10%. Now in previous trading session it closed below 40000 and stated trading below the same. Based on current price action 30000 level should be target of this fall. Getting any pull back signal near 30000 will be good for long term investment. On the flip side further breakdown below 30000 will crash bitcoin and you will see 20% to 30% correction near future. 30000 level is the key now.
by nmcapital44
BTC bear flagGM everyone, For those of you that like diagonals trendlines. There are two clear trendlines at work that provide strong resistance short term for BTC. I do not expect much from BTC right now. Clear downtrend with not strong bullish signs and volume gradually decreasing, which, although many will tell you, is a good thing. However, the reality is that the volume is dry because there is low demand and increased supply. We can see this on the few breakouts on the downside we had in the past few weeks. There is a spike of volume on the breakout due to the initial panic and then a gradual decrease suggesting lower demand. Also, as you can see from the chart, it looks like there is a clear bear pennant/flag in play at the moment. If BTC picks up some momentum on the upside, I do not see BTC going any further than 45500 unless strong volume push in and momentum start to turn. It looks to me bulls are scared right now. There is quite a firm conviction from some that BTC is bottoming out. The market is overleveraged, with many stop losses piling up on both sides. However, most of the shorts stop losses are above 46k, but the Longs stop losses are at 40k - 39k, making them highly vulnerable and bears will follow with conviction on a breakout. Although many are calling for different bullish patterns, the reality is that there is a lot of bias at this stage, and there is no clear bullish price pattern. There was a modest spring at 39500, which is bullish per see with good volume. However, the bulls follow-through was weak and with poor volume. BTC has just recently annihilated a cluster of strong supports for the uptrend, which are now all turned in resistances, and they are all sitting between 44 and 52k. I don't see much momentum, and considering the stochastic is almost overbought already, a strong push up is unlikely. Technically or you break them gradually step by step, or the asset has strong momentum behind and break through with strength... Hence in my head, I see continuation. I would reconsider my hypothesis when BTC breaks above 46k. Also, the Elliott Wave counting is not favouring an uptrend but rather a downtrend. Risk management is paramount, and you should know in advance invalidation points and your take profit, so do not copy and paste, follow your strategy as you don't know mine. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by CFcryptoTA
BTC bottom and top signalHello Everyone, One of the best Technical Analysts in the world in the book Technical Analysis Explained (Martin J. Pring) explained the use of KST and different moving averages to track reversal and enter when an asset is bottoming or exit when it is topping. In this two indicators system, I use the 12 MA for short term price action and the KST, which track four cycles at any time, giving more weight to long term cycles. This system is very useful as it provides reliable signals, bullish or bearish, by following five different cycles at any given time. As you can see from the chart, it has been very accurate for the past year. So are we bottoming yet? The system: BOTTOM: Price break above 12 MA (purple) with a bullish cross of KST, BOTTOM signal TOP: Price break below 12 MA with a bearish cross of KST, TOP signal. So following the system, I won't look for any long entry. Instead, I will look for a short position or exit on this rally. Can the system fail? Yes, it can. Likely to fail? 10-20% chance. So in trading, a system that gives you 80% reliability is an edge compared to the market. What will you do? (Comment below) FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
by CFcryptoTA
3
BTC FLAT Hello Everyone, In August, I was already evaluating the possibility of a Zig-Zag correction for the 4th primary wave of Bitcoin. However, as things started to heat up and BTC broke above the 60k level, I abandoned the idea. However, back then, I failed to evaluate the possibility of a flat correction. This makes much more sense considering the alternation rule of corrections in Elliott Wave principles. This rule state that if wave 2 of a correction was a Zig-Zag (Check 2019 correction), then wave 4 of the cycle will be either a Flat, Triangle or complex (Double three, Triple three). It was then logical to discard the Zig Zag idea for this correction and embrace either a Flat, Triangle or complex correction. Considering that the possibility of a triangle has nearly failed with the break below the 50 week MA at 46k, I then moved to the idea that we are into a Flat formation. There is to say that the most common correction for wave 4 is usually a triangle. However, I believe the probability of this has now narrowed down considerably. The only possibility of a triangle here is a rising triangle. These are some of the rarest formations and usually, happen when the fundamentals and sentiments are so strong that the asset barely retrace. In my opinion, in the current financial situation, although the fundamentals of BTC are strong, the monetary policy, recession, inflation at its highest after four decades and interest rates hikes for 2022, I believe the flat formation is way more logical. If you look at the chart, I tried to show you visually the three different types of Flat formations and why I believe the regular flat is most likely. Many are hoping in the running flat. However, this is the rarest of the flat formations and similarly to the rising triangle due to high momentum wave B finishing well above the start of wave A and wave C end into the price action of wave B well above the end of wave A. Now wave B wasn't a great higher high well above A, but a fake-out that fully agree with the idea of a regular flat. In a regular flat wave, C is made of 5 waves and is usually a painful wave for the market participants. It usually retraces up until the end of wave A, and it usually finishes at 123% or 138% of the projection of wave A. Considering this, I expect wave C to end at around 29k. This also agrees with the Elliott Wave channel lower boundary, which I have drawn previously in other ideas. I can be wrong, and this correction unfolds in a complex correction with the first ABC being a ZIG ZAG, the second a ZIG ZAG, and now forming a small triangle. Nevertheless, rest assured that after this correction, BTC will hit my targets of 185K. The timeline has just been delayed. I would love to hear your ideas, so please feel free to comment below. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT.
by CFcryptoTA
1
BTC Flat correction confirmedHello Everyone, The last two months have been intense in the crypto market. After touching 69k, the market dropped 40% from the All-Time High. Looking at the chart, it was logical to exit the market at around 70k. Although I called the top, I have re-entered the market at 55k, expecting the run to 100k like many others. That was a pure emotional mistake (that is why risk management with stop losses is essential) that I hope I will treasure and avoid in the future. Although the market looked strong in price, the volume told us something else. It was drying on the rally. This is typical of wave B, which is a fake run. You can see the difference between a legit run and a phoney in the chart. Nevertheless, there were other signs in the market structure. In the chart, I highlighted the primary and intermediate Elliott wave cycles. If we had to look closely at the chart, we could appreciate that BTC had a zigzag correction back at the end of 2019. By the rule of alternation of EW, we should have expected a Flat formation or complex formation developing sideways for the primary wave 4 (the one we are in now). Nevertheless, until we were holding above 46k, I was giving the benefit of the doubt to BTC and expecting a possible rising triangle. However, since we lost the 46k level, the market has confirmed the flat formation. BTC is now in wave C of intermediate degree, which is usually very painful for market participants. I expect BTC to have a bounce relief from 39-40k retesting the lost level at 46k. I expect a rejection that will create a cascade down to 30k, where BTC will conclude the correction. This aligns perfectly with the Elliott wave channel I have drawn on the chart, which is constructed by linking the top of wave 1 and wave 3 and drawing the parallel line starting at the bottom of wave 2. I have used the line chart as it is clean and blocks the swing's noise, which is best when wave counting. However, we can maybe expect a swing below 30k due to extreme emotional reaction at that level, touching 27-28k. Despite all this bad news, there is some good news. I see BTC bottoming out around middle March. I expect a slow start with wave 1 being steep, but due to the bearishness of market sentiment still deemed as bounce relief with people calling Nonsense levels such as 3-6 k for BTC. Wave 2 will feel like this with a lot of uncertainty. However, things will start to accelerate quickly after that. My final target hasn't changed, and I expect BTC to top at 185-195 k. Unfortunately, the market has to go through the pain of the correction before getting the sweet fruits of the next bull run. If BTC breaks above 54k, this hypothesis will be invalidated. Anything below 54k, then the flat is still in full force. I will start looking for shorts at around 46k expecting lower levels to 30k. If you have any questions, please feel free to comment below. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CFcryptoTA
11
BTC downtrendGM everyone, as promised, the continuation of the report HTF (Daily): The high timeframe shows a firm downtrend for BTC with a diagonal trendline resistance in full force A breakout of the diagonal resistance would be a positive sign indicating that the bears are losing their grip Nevertheless, let s analyse the move since July, focusing on the volume. Last year rally (2021) was a phoney rally. What do I mean by that? It was essentially a fake rally because it wasn't sustained by volume. We can see that in July as the volume dried up from the absence of sellers the price started to pick up on a small increase of volume. This is typical of local bottoms. However, the volume has failed to pick up strength suggesting less interest by the participant, not much conviction. Instead of any retracement, we could see there was a strong spike of volume which was suggesting that bears were still strong and working in the background. We could see an increase in volume on the topping process. this is typical of big players, institution unloading their shares/coins on the enthusiasm of retail traders. This was a clear suggestion that a local top was due. If we follow the volume then we can conclude that the November top was in fact a local top which doesn't mean this was a Macro top but I would see it as a short term top. Back at the beginning of December when we had the massive sell-off to 42k I was suggesting that if price and volume weren't going to pick up momentum and strong break above 52k BTC would have seen lower prices with my short term target of 39-40k and final target of 30k. Looking at the Bollinger Band (BB) we can see there was a squeeze recently indicating strong volatility imminent with also the price breaking above the 20 MA of the BB to just shortly after breaking back below with a tower top formation, a bearish pattern on the daily. This suggested that bears had an edge on the market and although BTC looked ready for a bounce bears were still in control. Nevertheless, the real blow came when BTC 2 days ago effectively lost the 45500 support which was in force for the last 4 weeks his as previously talked gave a downward target of 39-40K by measuring the price depth of the recent rectangle formation. The recent breakout holds strong significance because BTC has also lost the 52 week VWMA which was working as support for the last year and a half and at the same time has lost the 200 day MA which is also a worldwide indicator used to assess the strength of an asset (below downtrend above uptrend) On this breakout downwards we also had a volume confirmation with volume increasing significantly without any sign of climax which suggests this was a valid breakout with possible downwards continuation. The price has also closed outside the BB lower boundary which once again suggests a follow-through of the trend. A daily close back into the BB will signal a possible bounce back to the mean (20MA) back to 46-47 k. This is now expected However the magnitude of the bounce, volume and market behaviour will be an important indication of whether we found the local bottom. Now considering the Horizontal support and resistance, there are 4 main levels to pay attention to: the closest ones are the September low at 39500 for support and the 45500 support just recently turned resistance. A break below or above this level will create a down or up continuation to the next support and resistance. The 2 most important levels at the moment are the support at 30k and the resistance at 52k. In my opinion, the 52k resistance is the most important level to reclaim before calling any possible bull run. It is an important level signifying the high of September and the recent top of the local head n shoulder that has pushed us down to 40k. Right now I am looking for a reaction from BTC expecting a retest of the 45500 level short term. A possible violation and follow through to retest the 52k level won't be bullish in my opinion, I will still classify that as a bounce relief unless the 52k is reclaimed. There is a possibility BTC could be forming a Daily head n shoulder with the neckline sitting at 39 and invalidation point at 52k. If the HnS is completed then the downward target will be 24k. Although this is scary is still a possibility, but is far in the future right now. Lastly, the Stoch RSI and RSI are in oversold condition and due for relief. In the RSI a clear downtrend trendline can be drawn If the RSI manage to break above with a good volume follow through then this may suggest a new rally may be started. However, I will eye the 52k level before thinking about any serious long.
Long
by CFcryptoTA
BTC updateHello everyone, If you followed my idea yesterday, you should have been prepared for this. You knew that if BTC had lost the 45500 level, then we would have broken down. Unfortunately, this has been painful for many of you. Nevertheless, being prepared should bring you a bit of comfort. BTC has just confirmed us the worst. With the current monetary policy, risky assets are under pressure due to the spikes in rates and tapering. Nasdaq was one of the worst-hit, and BTC has followed. Previously I talked about three different scenarios using the Elliott Wave theory: - 1 Ascending triangle (my preferred count previously) - 2 Accumulation before the explosion - 3 Big Flat I have to update my idea now and confirm the flat. I know many of you will be demoralised, but the good news is that you will be able to buy your favourite crypto cheap and make more gains in the next cycle. You can see in the chart here presented that if you follow all the counting, it makes sense to believe that the final bottom will likely be at 30600. The end of the fourth wave of a smaller degree is the 100% extension of May's wave A, and it is in Fibonacci equilibrium with the previous waves. I am now looking mainly at shorting the market, and I will personally exit most of my cryptos. This is following my strategy and my view of the market. It doesn't need to be yours. The main resistance now sits at 45500, and soon there will be a test of it and failing to be reclaimed will be another confirmation of more downside potential. Just by using the extension target of the rectangle pattern, we have violated the target is 39k. Nevertheless, that will be the end of wave 3 in this downtrend. I will then expect a retest of 45500 and then one more leg down to 30k. In case the 45500 is reclaimed, then a possible uptrend may be starting, but it will need to be assessed then. For short term trading, I will always use more traditional tools like resistance and supports similar to the one used in the last few days as they have a better short term directional forecasting potential. The EW will be there in the background to highlight some of the long-term possibilities. So going for steps: BTC has lost the 52 week MA (2 years dynamic support) - retest of 45500 (52 week MA) - target 39k if 39k fail to provide support and BTC do not break above 45500 then will look at 30k. I am now focusing my trades on the shorting side. I hope this makes sense to you. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
by CFcryptoTA
BTC trditional approachHello Everyone, Yesterday I posted the Elliott Wave analysis, and Today I decided to give you a more traditional view. They complement each other, and they should be used together. Elliott Wave has far better long-term and short-term forecasting power, and the traditional is excellent to confirm The Elliott Wave prediction or debunk it. So they should always be used together. I tried to label each of the visual indicators in the chart to help you understand. BTC is trading in a rectangle pattern short term, and this gives a specific target both ways up or down in case of a breakout. The targets are 58500 in case of upwards breakout and 39500 in case of downwards breakout. Either way, you should be able to profit from this move (up/down) in the futures market. There are a few different resistances that are pressing BTC downwards. However, strong supports hold BTC with the 52 Week VWMA and different VWAP. Nevertheless, if we look at the 52 weeks simple MA (48100), BTC has now closed below, so you should all be on alert mode. BTC must reclaim the 52 week SMA as many traders pay attention to it. Another indicator that I believe is important to track right now is the Stoch RSI . Although many doubt its use, many retail traders trade using only the Stoch RSI, which gives the indicators strong validity. BTC has reset on the daily frame; however, it is starting to turn bullish, but the price is struggling to follow. This will be bearish if the Stoch RSI reaches overbought conditions and BTC won't move and reclaim the 48k level strongly. Nevertheless, I am bullish right now. I expect BTC to retest 45500 in the first part of the week to finally bounce and head to 52k. As I have shown in my previous charts, I doubt a capitulation event at this point, and I am expecting BTC to reach 58k in the next few weeks. Why? - Bullish engulfing on the weekly timeframe and a bullish cross of the Stoch RSI - Oversold - Elliott wave most probable scenario, in my view, is an ascending triangle (Bounce from this level) - Confluence of Long-term strong supports - Confluence of different resistances turned support (retest) - Break and retest of the diagonal trendline resistance weakening bearish momentum - Higher High and Higher Low structure NOT invalidate yet signalling an uptrend In conclusion, I am still expecting a bounce from here starting from the middle of this week. However, I would like to stress that the macro conditions are very confusional right now (I never trade on the news, and I do not pay attention to them usually) with the dollar strengthening due to the anticipated interest rates and announced by Powell. 2022 should have a deflationary bias, making it very hard for risky assets to start a raging bull run. However, history also shows that no market condition is equal, and what happens in one deflationary market do not repeat in the next one. This can be appreciated from different historical charts in which DJI commodities have rallied and plunged during similar conditions during different periods, so no market condition is equal. That is why I stick to Technical Analysis and avoid listening to the news. FA and TA need to be looked at together but remember price action will always be king whether FA supports it or not, so follow the price and not the word of mouths. 2022 will be interesting, and many will reason the market with the different markets conditions and bla bla the reality is that if you follow the price, you win. Reasoning comes later when action has already happened, often as an excuse. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
Long
by CFcryptoTA
BTC trendingHello Everyone, I hope you all enjoyed the time with your families. I apologise for being absent. I took some holidays during Christmas to spend time with my family. Now looking at BTC...There have been few excellent opportunities to capitulate in the past days, with BTC trading in a range with 46000 and 52000 as the main boundaries of the rectangle pattern. How do I trade the rectangle? Depending on the momentum oscillator, I either buy on support and sell at resistance OR (safest option) wait for a break out from the resistance or support and ride the impulse wave. I explained in the previous posts that from an Elliott Wave theory point of few there are different possible counting...either we are forming a rising triangle (my view), or this retracement was wave 1 of wave C, which will complete the expanded flat bringing us likely down to 21k (less plausible hypothesis). Now without speculating on the medium-long term, if we look at different indicators, we can appreciate that the scale leans towards a possible retest of 57-58 k in the medium-short term. BTC is oversold in basically all the timeframe up to the weekly frame with the stoch RSI of 4h, 12h and weekly flipping bullish. As you can appreciate, the different Moving averages and VWAP are providing a cluster of support and resistance in this area, with the VWAP from the low (June) and the 52 Week VWMA providing strong support and the VWAP from the Low (July) and the 200 Day MA providing resistance. Considering the oscillator, we can speculate that there are higher probabilities of a break out above the 52k level regaining a bullish momentum to retest the 52k. This is clearly defining the current trading range. If we pay attention to the weekly chart, I expect a run to 66k starting soon. However, I am waiting for the price to confirm before committing. If we apply some volume analysis, it is clear that BTC has been ranging for the last year (Accumulation) between 29k and 70k. The volume presents different interesting characteristics, with volume reaching a climax at the bottom in May and drying throughout June - July, which is a significant reversal sign as sellers have been dissipated. The bounce started with some volume but quickly drying suggesting this to be a wave B (phoney) due to the lack of volume strength backing the price action. Similarly, the volume has not increased violently on wave C down which suggests that this is not the start of a multi-year Bear market but only a wave part of a correction. Considering this, I expect another 2 waves in the medium term, carrying us to February. One wave to retest the 69k and another wave down correcting this bounce which will sign the end of the correction and the start of the last bull run before the bear market. Lastly, looking at BTC, there is a possible price pattern formation on this support. Either double bottom or Adam and eve, depending on the steepness of this bounce, either wave this should unfold in a significant bounce to 57k. To conclude, always remember that each of us has strategies and Bias. The most important part of a trade is the Stop Loss. This protects your capital from unexpected moves and your mistakes. No trader is always right, so cover your asses with a stop loss, better be safe than sorry. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
Long
by CFcryptoTA
3
Big shock ... Bitcoin and the figure of $ 300,000The similarity of today's Bitcoin chart with the chart after the March 2020 crash, and more importantly, when we put the move after that crash unchanged in the continuation of the Bitcoin chart, is strongly consistent with its predecessor Fibonacci. These similar movements are also seen in Stock RSI. This is not a coincidence, but a repetition. Bitcoin reform a few days ago increases its mobility. *** I have come to the conclusion that the era of news and fundamental influence is over and Bitcoin is working by its own law.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Farid-110
5
BTC scenariosHello everyone, Which one will it be? BTC is on the verge of an important decision. Will BTC complete the HnS and Head to 42k? Or will BTC bounce from the support and break the HnS creating a strong reaction that will bring it to 56-58k? Most of the oscillators and momentum indicators are flashing oversold. However, if we look at the volume, every bounce from 46500 was with drying volume, which is a bearish indicator. Will the volume increase on support to signal a breakout or, will it be a fakeout? Considering the indicators, there is a reasonable probability that the HnS continuation will fail. However, the best play is to wait. Wait for a confirmation sign (breakout of the neckline 46500 or break out of the head to right shoulder resistance at 50k). It is always best not to be surprised. If we bounce convincingly from the support, it will be a good sign of a reversal. If we open and close on the 12h below the 46500, it will be a good sign that 42k is coming. Stay safe FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
by CFcryptoTA
Bitcoin, What is next?Hello everyone, In this video, I am going through my thinking process when looking at the current Bitcoin structure. Hopefully, this will help you learn to create a strategy and a thinking process that is unique to you. If you follow other traders' ideas, you will likely lose money nine times out of 10. Why? Because each of us has a different plan, risk management strategy and capital size. So think for yourself. However, the best thing you can do, if like me and money other you have lost money due to poorly managed trades, is to educate yourself...Knowledge is power, practical, and you will be able to use it every time you need it. Remember, opinions and confirmation bias in markets is the death of traders. Accept to be wrong to save your capital. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE, and COMMENT if you enjoyed the video.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CFcryptoTA
4
Which Way BTC ⁉️BTCUSDT | Weekly: One major lesson this week is looking at Bitcoin bigger picture. See what the macro charts are saying, they give clearer path, and predict possible drops or rise. The recent drop was clearly inevitable based on these macro data. Before we see another ATH for bitcoin is estimative 21-24 Weeks out. 5 - 6 Months out. That is definitely Year 2022!! ANALYSIS: ** Golden pocket bounced nicely in last drop ** Confluence at these area with weeks-long old support ** Short-time move upward was rejected at the "mild resistance" //MA 20 confluence ** Bitcoin is expected to continue consolidation in the current range Worst Case Scenario: ***** Because Bitcoin is a play tool for the whales, I do make allowance for exceptions ** If GP , current Support is broken by any means, Fib .786 is the ultimate reversal point. This is at $37k BTC . It will be reasonable to trade smaller TFs this period for day traders . HODLers will have to wait long time for another ATH. Follow 🚶 @CryptonKidd for unbiased analysis and insights on Altcoins. Check linked analysis on former analysis where I warned of this crash danger:
by CryptonKidd
Bitcoin recovery or doomed?In this video, I am diving into a long term analysis, and I explore the different possible scenarios to help you better understand the market structure. Bitcoin may seem very bearish, but...is it? I am thrilled to know your opinions. Comment below with your chart or explanation, and tell me what you think. The exchange of constructive ideas can only enrich our knowledge and see essential things from different angles. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CFcryptoTA
BTC dumpHello everyone...dark day for the crypto market. The analysis of today will go through a couple of scenarios and my plan depending on the following BTC price action. I believe this is one of the best videos I have ever made. Hence I suggest you watch it. I hope this will help you have a better idea of what is going on and have a better plan! Remember, these are my ideas...any of my posts are explaining my few, and you should always do your own research as I do not dispatch financial advice...ever.
by CFcryptoTA
1
Bitcoin Correction Same Like My Analysis. Where is Reversal?Bitcoin correction same like my analysis. Here is the strong support to reversal. Bitcoin correction finally touch Fibonacci area 0.618 (51627.94) and touch the strong support area around 51k-53k. It indicate the support and reversal. Bitcoin need to make higher low and fill the gap that's why there is correction there. Wait for break out to take long position. Look my previous ideas here: note: do your own research before trading.
Long
by pandupratama7
2
BTC short squeeze?Here is a simple chart. These are the leverage and non-leverage short positions on Bitfinex. On-chain analysis suggest that the leverage position is at an ATH, however, there is no way to know whether are long positions or short position. considering - fear and greed index extreme fear (21-30) in the market - whales accumulated 2.36 billion in the last 2 weeks - MicroStrategy bought an additional 400 mil BTC - BTC exchange reserve all-time LOW WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? - SHORT SQUEEZE - LONG SQUEEZE COMMENT BELOW WITH YOUR ANSWER (explain if you like)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS
by CFcryptoTA
5