Bitcoinminers
RIOT Platforms Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RIOT Platforms prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 10usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-1,
for a premium of approximately $0.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CLSK Roadmap for EOY and 2025Hello Tradingview community!
As always: If these patterns I'm showcasing doesn't work as predicted..
then please don't come crying to me (ty) -> NFA DYOR
I think this honestly could be the "roadmap" for NASDAQ:CLSK
My target for EOY is around 15-25 dollars
and my target for 2025 (Q3-Q4 my top guess) around 45-80 dollars
It does have potential/room enough to go down to: 7 dollar zone
But the bottom could easily already be in (In my opinion)
These are idea's and targets I'm watching that I wanted to share
with the whole world - BTC miners needs some love here on Tradingview.
Anyway, BOOST the post if you like it and follow for more!
NFA DYOR <<<<-----
EDIT: Sorry about the "fingers" they get weirdly located when I release the post..
MARA Marathon Digital Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on MARA:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MARA Marathon Digital Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 27usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-3-21,
for a premium of approximately $5.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
$WULF heading back to sub $1Lots of people have been talking about buying the dip in bitcoin miners, but bitcoin miners look like they have a long way down to go from here.
You can see w/ Heikin Ashi candles that the trend has changed and we've rejected off of the trend line.
From here, I think it's likely that WULF retraces all the way back to retest it's support at $.80 before a real move higher begins.
Invalidation of this would be if WULF can find support in the $3 range and rally back up above the top trend line.
Let's see what happens from here.
BITDEER deserves to be re-rated HIGHERBased on fundamentals and technicals of course!
This company I expect to comfortably trade as a double digit company by years end
And during the #Bitcoin bull top even has the potential to tag this log projection
we can see an Inverse head and shoulders clearly being formed.
Yet to trigger, but it has some impressive projections.
Will Bitdeer outperform it's more well known rival #Mining competitors?
Did you lose faith in the Bitcoin Miners??? WAGMI #WGMIThe Bitcoin miners ETF WGMI
has a lovely setup
you could be picking up cheap miners
slurping that blood!
For summertime profits... If you have the b@lls (& capital of course)
#CupandHandle
Clear as day
for all to see --- Yet sentiment is in the toilet.
Marvelous!
#CLSK
#WULF
#BITF #BITF.TO
#HIVE #HIVE.V
#MARA
#MIGI
#RIOT
#HUT
#GREE
#ARBK
#BTBT
#BTDR
#BTCM
#CORZ
#NILE
#IREN
#DMGI
#CIFR
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES
Would you have believed it
If you were told a year ago.
When every expert was predicting a recession.
(which will come of course but when no one is expecting it )
So the conditions are set for a melt up
I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next
(grab some bitcoin miners!)
ENJOY THE NEXT few months!
#CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING
Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation
Which is when the next slowdown will hit.
This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend.
The stimulus was unprecedented
Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago
We are near the end!
But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
Marathon Digital stock Listed in S&P 600 IndexBitcoin mining company Marathon Digital ( NASDAQ:MARA ) has seen its stock value rise by 18% after being listed by S&P Global in its SmallCap 600 index. The company's market cap rose by about $800 million over the weekend, marking a significant achievement for the digital asset company. The SmallCap 600 index is an index of companies with a small market cap, selected based on their recent profitability and other features. The companies considered to be small-cap must have a market cap of $1 billion to $6.7 billion.
Marathon Digital ( NASDAQ:MARA ) has filed an 8-K with the SEC for compensation of some of its highest executives, stating the company's commitment to providing long-term incentives to workers as part of its LTIP Awards.
The incentive is being awarded to three of the company's executives, including CEO Fred Thiel, CFO Salman Khan, and General Counsel Zabi Nowaid. The move is expected to boost morale and align the executives' interests with those of the company's stockholders.
Despite its inclusion in the S&P 600, Marathon Digital ( NASDAQ:MARA ) stock is down 2.25% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 57 posing signs of a reversal trend in the near to long term.
Marathon Digital ( NASDAQ:MARA ) stock is trading below the above the 200-day Moving Average (MA).
MARA Marathon Digital Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on MARA:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MARA Marathon Digital Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $7.85.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CleanSpark Major Potential CleanSpark Inc - NASDAQ:CLSK
This is a unique mid tier BTC miner that is edging ahead of Cipher Mining in terms of size, production and reserves held (See below for the pecking order of 4 BTC miners).
The CLSK Trade
- Ideal entry would be bounce off 200 DSMA
- Risk/Reward from here is 5.55 which is not bad
- Stop Loss placement at 200 DSMA or POC
Chart Positives
- High Volume is ideal signifying increased interest
,float and momentum
- Price above POC
- Price above 200 DSMA
- Pennant price congestion reaching its decision
point
The Pecking Order for BTC Miners covered to date
1. Marathon Digital NASDAQ:MARA have 156,600 rigs & mined 825 BTC in Mar 2023 (12,964 BTC Reserves)
2. Riot Platforms NASDAQ:RIOT have 95,904 rigs and mined 592 Bitcoin in June 2023 (6,696 BTC reserves)
2. Clearspark NASDAQ:CLSK have 87,936 rigs and mined 575 Bitcoin in July 2023 (1,061 BTC reserves)
3. Cipher Mining NASDAQ:CIFR have 70,000 rigs and mined 493 bitcoin in May 2023 (518 BTC reserves)
Clearspark has earned its place above Cipher mining however both companies have been investing much of their Bitcoin into expanding their production lines this year which is why they have lower reserves than the likes of the well established RIOT.
We will need to keep a close eye on both going forward as they both fully intend to continue to expand. I am already invested in NASDAQ:CIFR with a small initial position (previously shared a chart on this).
I'll be looking for NASDAQ:CLSK exposure between here and the 200 DSMA. The risk reward is reasonable and the chart is attractive.
PUKA
$MARA approaching the 5th wave down!$MARA:4H
I would expect the increased potential for NASDAQ:MARA to rise as high as the 0.5 retrace (20.75) or AVWAP (21.98) were CRYPTOCAP:BTC price to rise. I would expect the AVWAP (blue) off the recent high to be in confluence with the 0.5 retrace by that point and provide a solid line of resistance. Failure to consolidate above the 0.5 retrace/AVWAP levels could portend the beginning of the 5th and final wave down to the 10-12 price range.
It should be noted that price has done enough to complete the 4th wave upward retrace and could remain range bound (16-19) at current levels for a couple weeks. However, given the recent level of volatility associated with this issue, I see this as the less likely scenario.
In summation, whether it be from a little higher price point or from current levels, my current thesis is that NASDAQ:MARA follows the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC downward leading up to the halving and its accompanying, short term, ‘supply shock’. I would expect NASDAQ:MARA to find its bottom somewhere between 10-12 before the end of April 2024.
Bitcoin Miners Overview The performance over recent months as we enter a new CRYPTOCAP:BTC bull cycle (RELEVANT & recent timeframe)
NASDAQ:CLSK - 307%+ since Dec 2022
NASDAQ:CIFR - 485%+ since Dec 2022
NASDAQ:MAR - 4,729%+ since Mar 2020
NASDAQ:RIOT - 1824%+ since Mar 2020
Keep an eye on who is holding the 200 day and who holds diagonal support
PUKC
Bitcoin Miners Update - CIPH, CLSK, MARA & RIOT Cleanspark Inc - NASDAQ:CLSK
$1.5 Billion Market Cap
✅Trade remains open in 39% unrealized profit
(average DCA of $5.85)
✅ The Volume on this chart is exceptional and really adds to my conviction. I may double down with another buy if we get down to the 200 day MA.
🚨 I have raised the stop from $4.50 turning it into a 23:1 risk reward. Raising as 23% below current 200 day MA is enough IMO.
A lot people see the recent pull back as a reason to deleverage, this is where I trade differently, its a long term position. The short term volatility will either allow me to get another decent discount buy in or sink deep enough to cancel out the trade. This is how we can gain a full long term bullish trending move with exponential upside. The risk is 23% or not taking the risk and not remaining patient having taken it.
Cipher Mining - NASDAQ:CIFR
$0.83 billion market cap
✅Trade remains open in 9% unrealised profit
✅ Look at that volume increase. It’s a beautiful thing. It reassures us that there is significant green buying rushing into this stock & hints that we on the right side of the trade
🚨 I have raised the stop from $1.77 to $2.16 turning it into a 7:1 risk reward.
- Raising the stop as there is plenty of support above it that should hold from recent lows, H&S baseline and diagonal support line. If all these are lost, cutting losses would be ideal.
Like most of my trades, they require a little more patience and a distain for intermittent short term volatility.
Marathon Digital - NASDAQ:MARA
$4.22 Billion Market Cap
❌Our stop was triggered on the last trade at @ $7.66 with a notable 30% loss. Subsequently this was exactly were price bounced. The original position size was very small so its not end of the world stuff. In the end the stop was too high, we should have place it just a tad lower but…this happens and that’s trading. All the other trades are in profit and fully cater for this loss. Without these rules id be broke. I consider it a necessary loss. I didn’t want more than the 30% limit lost so, that was my risk tolerance for the position size.
Onto the front foot what do we do next?
✅ I set a bid at $14.31 where i think we may get a bounce from the 200 day SMA
✅ You could enter right here for the potential head and shoulders baseline bounce. I could consider that but if but it would be watched like a day trade. I'll just see how tomorrow goes first. The bid is at $14.31 for now.
🚨 I am allowing for a 30% loss again with a stop @ $4.41 however I am starting with what was left after the last loss, 70% of my original position and I'll be watching this a lot closer.
I actually love these trades because they teach you something, you realize the small position size and the 30% loss was within your tolerance, enough so that you can come back at the trade again and with exponential potential returns the prospect draws you in once again. The risk reward is there. Alternatively, you could just DCA into these and for years through thick and thin, BUT again, position size should be tolerable for you to patiently sit on your hands and let the trend take shape.
Riot Platforms NASDAQ:RIOT
$2.42 Billion Market Cap
▫️ No position open in RIOT yet as it appears to be the weaker of the charts we have looked at.
▫️ In our last post we noted volume is declining which is negative and the RSI was not yet oversold. We noted both of these could mean more sideways or price declining action. Since then we have actually increased and hold a 30% higher position from $9.13 - $11.73 however price is dropping fast and has not managed to break out of the pennant. I believe this demonstrates relative weakness to the other charts noted.
▫️ We are still forming midterm pennant (dashed lines). A break out of this pennant would be an a good signal on direction.
▫️ Strong Historic Price Support between $8.50 and the POC at $7.40 (green bar). If you were going to risk a trade here, Id be playing off the lower end with a tight stop.
▫️ We are falling below the 200 day SMA (Not Ideal with pennant over head resistance).
Now don't get me wrong, RIOT will likely rise like the other miners, however at present NASDAQ:CLSK is showing significant relative strength having broken out of its pennant , well above its 200 day MA and sitting in 40% profit. On the contrary, we have strong support for NASDAQ:RIOT at c. $9.00 which could present an opportunity. We noted $8.50 as a good level last post, in the end price bounced from $8.61. We cant be too greedy.
Summary
The clear winner is Cleanspark NASDAQ:CLSK with a moderate market cap of $1.5 billion and a chart demonstrating relative strength with us sitting in approx. 40% profit.
The MARA chart is demonstrating strength and may provide a great opportunity as instructed above however the market cap of $4.22 Billion clearly out sizes CLSK and may mean a slower rise or growth potential. MARA actually mined a record 1,852 BTC in Dec 2023 and have increased BTC Reserves have increased from 12,964 to 15,174 as of Dec 2023. Theses are incredible numbers.
Tomorrow I will look at a comparison of how each of these miners are performing in terms of rigs active, reserves held and BTC being mined.
PUKA
Marathon Digital #MARA Inverse Head and Shoulders. To over $100!Back in 21/22 Looking at the #Bitcoin miners helped me directionally to confirm the bear market.
Now in 2023 we have the flip flop
Miners exploded out of the bear market lows.
Check Back, with a healthy retracement. Putting in higher lows.
And now look ready to resume their climb higher.
#Marathon is a great example. A leading name and company within in this sector. And is showing a potential inverse head and shoulder's
The chart shows two targets Linear and Log.
Log target suggests a #Bitcoin price that will trade over $100k --- The promised land.
Will people's live actually be better with BTC @100K ???
Well, only if they are investing now... not buying above that magical mark obviously. :)
IN A BITCOIN FRENZY; LONG BTC MINERS & SHORT BTCBitcoin ("BTC") prices are on a tear. It has rallied +57% since the start of September and is on course to clock fourth sequential month of rising prices. Four forces are driving a blistering rally. Euphoria linked to BTC spot ETF. Bullishness in all “Risk On” assets. Regulatory clarity. BTC halving.
In a BTC rally, portfolio managers can gain exposure to the sector in multiple ways. These include a long position in (a) BTC, (b) BTC Futures, (c) Listed BTC miners’ stocks, (d) Crypto Exchanges, or (e) ETF on Listed BTC Miners (“Miners ETF”).
Each of these presents its own benefits and challenges. This paper summarises the forces driving the bull run and analyses the price behaviour of Miners ETF (represented by Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF “WGMI”) vis-a-vis BTC.
Since June when market caught on to the excitement of a BTC Spot ETF, BTC prices have rallied relative to WGMI.
In the near term, will the ETF catch up with the bull rally in BTC? Has the BTC price rally run ahead of itself?
UNPACKING WGMI ETF
WGMI is an actively managed ETF that invests in listed BTC miners. It is issued by Valkyrie Funds LLC.
The ETF objective is to invest >80% of its net assets in firms that derive >50% of their revenue or profits from BTC mining operations and/or from providing specialized chips, hardware and software or other services supporting BTC mining.
The Fund will not directly invest in BTC. Neither will it indirectly participate in BTC using derivatives or through investments in funds or trusts that hold BTC.
Source: ETFDB and data last updated 7th/December 2023
WGMI was launched in Feb 2022, it has net assets of USD 33 million and an expense ratio of 75 basis points.
In June, when regulatory approval discussions became louder, WGMI rallied relative to BTC. Net fund flows have been positive for much of the year with rising inflows since start of October.
However, since mid-July, while BTC remained resilient, WGMI came off precipitously. WGMI price meltdown stopped in early Oct and has since started rising. Meanwhile, BTC prices have rallied sharply resulting in a WGMI underperforming BTC by 30%.
BTC BULLS IN FULL FORCE
Four forces are driving BTC frenzy.
1. BTC Spot ETF Euphoria
ETF applications were delayed by the SEC and remain pending. Previously anticipated timeline of between 5th and 10th January 2024 remains the expected approval date.
Source: James Seyffart
2. Risk-on Asset Bull Run
When money flows, it flows everywhere. Equity markets have been on an upward trajectory over the past three months on Fed rate cut hopes. BTC is seen as the risk asset of choice rallying the most.
3. Regulatory Clarity
Recently, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), former CEO of FTX, and Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange were both prosecuted. SBF was convicted of fraud and jailed.
Meanwhile, Binance was imposed USD 4.3 billion in penalties on criminal charges related to money laundering and breach of financial sanctions.
In reaction to these developments, JP Morgan's Nikolais Panigirtzoglou said that "We see the prospect of settlement as positive as uncertainty around Binance itself would subside and its trading and BNB Smart Chain business would benefit.
"For crypto investors the prospect of settlement would see the elimination of a potential systemic risk emanating from a hypothetical Binance collapse.", he added.
4. BTC Halving
BTC derives value from its limited supply. Every four years, the number of BTCs minted as a mining reward, halves and will eventually halt, leading to a fixed supply.
BTC halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. As the average block time is ~10 minutes this gives a ballpark range of four years. Next BTC halving is expected on 19th April 2024, with tiny likelihood that it could take place in March or May.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP
BTC appreciation due to halving is well known but its effects on miners is counter intuitive. With halving, the block reward for mining BTC i.e. miner revenues are essentially slashed in half.
Although BTC price appreciation helps offset to some degree, it may not be enough if elevated prices cannot be sustained. Macro conditions have shifted. Energy prices are lower positively impacting the miners. Miner margins are likely to be wider.
Large miners are expanding their hash rate at record clip. This is supported by expansion of hash rate as well as consolidation.
Given the frenzied euphoric run up in BTC prices, BTC price may have run ahead of itself. In order to protect long position in Bitcoin miners against downside moves in volatile cryptocurrency prices, investors can hedge a long position in WGMI with a short position in CME Micro BTC futures.
This Relative Value trade captures the alpha from rising stock prices of miners, while remaining agnostic to the price action on BTC itself.
This paper argues for a hypothetical long position in WGMI ETF hedged by a short position using CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring in January 2024 (MBTF2024).
A long-short spread requires the notional of each trade leg to be identical. Each lot of Micro Bitcoin Futures provides exposure to 0.10 bitcoin equating to a notional value of USD 4,544. Given WGMI prices as of market close on 8th December was at USD 14.75 per ETF, 308 ETF units are required.
The hypothetical relative value trade then comprises of 308 WGMI units of ETF hedged by one lot of short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures with the following hypothetical trade set up:
• Entry: 0.03246% (USD 14.75 divided by USD 45,440)
• Target: 0.045%
• Stop Loss: 0.027%
• Profit at Target: USD 1,755
• Loss at Stop: USD 676
• Reward/Risk: 2.6x
Please note that the above hypothetical P&L doesn’t include transaction and capital costs.
MARKET DATA
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