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Bitcoinminers

IN A BITCOIN FRENZY; LONG BTC MINERS & SHORT BTCBitcoin ("BTC") prices are on a tear. It has rallied +57% since the start of September and is on course to clock fourth sequential month of rising prices. Four forces are driving a blistering rally. Euphoria linked to BTC spot ETF. Bullishness in all “Risk On” assets. Regulatory clarity. BTC halving. In a BTC rally, portfolio managers can gain exposure to the sector in multiple ways. These include a long position in (a) BTC, (b) BTC Futures, (c) Listed BTC miners’ stocks, (d) Crypto Exchanges, or (e) ETF on Listed BTC Miners (“Miners ETF”). Each of these presents its own benefits and challenges. This paper summarises the forces driving the bull run and analyses the price behaviour of Miners ETF (represented by Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF “WGMI”) vis-a-vis BTC. Since June when market caught on to the excitement of a BTC Spot ETF, BTC prices have rallied relative to WGMI. In the near term, will the ETF catch up with the bull rally in BTC? Has the BTC price rally run ahead of itself? UNPACKING WGMI ETF WGMI is an actively managed ETF that invests in listed BTC miners. It is issued by Valkyrie Funds LLC. The ETF objective is to invest >80% of its net assets in firms that derive >50% of their revenue or profits from BTC mining operations and/or from providing specialized chips, hardware and software or other services supporting BTC mining. The Fund will not directly invest in BTC. Neither will it indirectly participate in BTC using derivatives or through investments in funds or trusts that hold BTC. Source: ETFDB and data last updated 7th/December 2023 WGMI was launched in Feb 2022, it has net assets of USD 33 million and an expense ratio of 75 basis points. In June, when regulatory approval discussions became louder, WGMI rallied relative to BTC. Net fund flows have been positive for much of the year with rising inflows since start of October. However, since mid-July, while BTC remained resilient, WGMI came off precipitously. WGMI price meltdown stopped in early Oct and has since started rising. Meanwhile, BTC prices have rallied sharply resulting in a WGMI underperforming BTC by 30%. BTC BULLS IN FULL FORCE Four forces are driving BTC frenzy. 1. BTC Spot ETF Euphoria ETF applications were delayed by the SEC and remain pending. Previously anticipated timeline of between 5th and 10th January 2024 remains the expected approval date. Source: James Seyffart 2. Risk-on Asset Bull Run When money flows, it flows everywhere. Equity markets have been on an upward trajectory over the past three months on Fed rate cut hopes. BTC is seen as the risk asset of choice rallying the most. 3. Regulatory Clarity Recently, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), former CEO of FTX, and Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange were both prosecuted. SBF was convicted of fraud and jailed. Meanwhile, Binance was imposed USD 4.3 billion in penalties on criminal charges related to money laundering and breach of financial sanctions. In reaction to these developments, JP Morgan's Nikolais Panigirtzoglou said that "We see the prospect of settlement as positive as uncertainty around Binance itself would subside and its trading and BNB Smart Chain business would benefit. "For crypto investors the prospect of settlement would see the elimination of a potential systemic risk emanating from a hypothetical Binance collapse.", he added. 4. BTC Halving BTC derives value from its limited supply. Every four years, the number of BTCs minted as a mining reward, halves and will eventually halt, leading to a fixed supply. BTC halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. As the average block time is ~10 minutes this gives a ballpark range of four years. Next BTC halving is expected on 19th April 2024, with tiny likelihood that it could take place in March or May. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP BTC appreciation due to halving is well known but its effects on miners is counter intuitive. With halving, the block reward for mining BTC i.e. miner revenues are essentially slashed in half. Although BTC price appreciation helps offset to some degree, it may not be enough if elevated prices cannot be sustained. Macro conditions have shifted. Energy prices are lower positively impacting the miners. Miner margins are likely to be wider. Large miners are expanding their hash rate at record clip. This is supported by expansion of hash rate as well as consolidation. Given the frenzied euphoric run up in BTC prices, BTC price may have run ahead of itself. In order to protect long position in Bitcoin miners against downside moves in volatile cryptocurrency prices, investors can hedge a long position in WGMI with a short position in CME Micro BTC futures. This Relative Value trade captures the alpha from rising stock prices of miners, while remaining agnostic to the price action on BTC itself. This paper argues for a hypothetical long position in WGMI ETF hedged by a short position using CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring in January 2024 (MBTF2024). A long-short spread requires the notional of each trade leg to be identical. Each lot of Micro Bitcoin Futures provides exposure to 0.10 bitcoin equating to a notional value of USD 4,544. Given WGMI prices as of market close on 8th December was at USD 14.75 per ETF, 308 ETF units are required. The hypothetical relative value trade then comprises of 308 WGMI units of ETF hedged by one lot of short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures with the following hypothetical trade set up: • Entry: 0.03246% (USD 14.75 divided by USD 45,440) • Target: 0.045% • Stop Loss: 0.027% • Profit at Target: USD 1,755 • Loss at Stop: USD 676 • Reward/Risk: 2.6x Please note that the above hypothetical P&L doesn’t include transaction and capital costs. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:MBT1!
by mintdotfinance
Crypto Gold Rush: Unveiling BlockQuarry's Explosive PotentialAlright, folks, we're diving into the BlockQuarry (BLQC) charts, and it's turning into quite the thriller. Picture this: every time our modified Golden Ratio indicator winked with a Golden Cross, it's been like setting off fireworks. First stop, December 2020 – a rocket launch. In 72 days, we witnessed a jaw-dropping 2329% gain. Then, cue July 2021, and déjà vu hit with a 779% gain in 77 days. Fast forward to January 2023, another Golden Cross, another quick 129% gain in just 21 days. Now, here we stand, on the brink of Golden Cross number four. But here's the kicker – every time this happened, we saw the price bust out from a bullish flag. It's like the market whispering, "Hold onto your hats, we're gearing up for something big." And here's the plot twist – zooming out, we've got this falling wedge pattern. It's like a coiled spring ready to explode. The price is teasing us, right under the resistance from the upper line of the wedge, signaling a potential breakout any moment. Now, let's throw Bitcoin into the mix. The whole crypto scene is heating up, and these miners, like BlockQuarry, could be the wild cards in this high-stakes game. Bitcoin's rise could be the wind beneath their wings, turning this into a high-risk, high-reward play. And if that's not exciting enough, over the last two weeks, more folks are jumping in to buy, and there's a distinct lack of sellers. It's like the crowd is getting fired up, sensing the potential for big moves. But, and it's a big but, let's not forget this is high-risk territory. It's the kind of play where fortunes can be made or lost. Keeping a keen eye on volume, anticipating that breakout from the falling wedge, and staying tuned to any Bitcoin tremors or company updates is the name of the game. It's a bit like being in the front row of a rock concert, and BlockQuarry is the headliner. Fasten your seatbelts, because this could be one wild ride in the high-risk, high-reward world of crypto mining stocks. Happy trading, adrenaline junkies!
OTC:BLQCLong
by Sniper29x
2
MARA Marathon Digital Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MARA Marathon Digital Holdings prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 8usd strike price in the money Calls with an expiration date of 2023-11-10, for a premium of approximately $1.50. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:MARALong
by TopgOptions
2
Cipher BTC mining - Major upside potentialCIPHER MINING (CIFR) $CIPR - Inverse Head and Shoulders breakout & retest? - Above 200 day SMA with turn up - OBV increasing - On daily chart we are above the Point of Control which aligns which closely with purple horizontal - We could see a retest of this line so I would be DCA'ing from here in dribbles especially after a big move like this weeks 25% +, regardless I want exposure so ill dip my beak here. In terms of managing this trade the chart really shows you everything. This is a long term trade with a good risk return ratio. Align the trade with your own risk tolerance and remember to always be patient and keep an allocation aside in case of a lower price entry opportunity. Stop loss is outlined on the chart and should be honored. We can always re-enter the trade at a later date having reviewed the situation. Setting a stop under the 200 day SMA could be used as a trailing type of stop also. Fundamentals (for fun and stamping the stock into our mind): - CIPHER appears to be half the size of Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) which is a well known industry large player - Cipher have 59,000 mining rigs deployed (MARA by comparison have 105,200 rigs) - Cipher mined 493 bitcoin in the month of May (MARA by comparison mined 825 in March 2023) - CIPHER announced record production during the month of May 2023. It appears things are just heating up. Fabulous Quote from the CEO from back in November 2022 which gives you an idea of the location and their unique offering “We are delighted to announce that our Odessa data center has begun bitcoin mining operations just 10 months after we broke ground at the site. The start of mining at Odessa represents a critical step in Cipher’s journey to become a market leader in the U.S. bitcoin mining industry. Since going public in 2021, we have built four data centers in Texas and are now one of the lowest cost producers of bitcoin,” said Tyler Page, CEO. “Because of our long-term, fixed price power contract at Odessa, we also have an advantage that few other bitcoin miners have -- the flexibility to mine bitcoin or resell our power to the market, which can help mitigate the effects of falling bitcoin prices.”
NASDAQ:CIFRLong
by PukaCharts
1
I Predict A RIOTRiot Platforms NASDAQ:RIOT - Above 200 day SMA & sloping upwards - Ascending parallel price channel . - Break of OBV resistance levels have been positive - We have just broken above the Feb 2021 OBV high New entries into this trade would be better waiting for a re-test of the bottom of the channel with a stop placed beneath it. As we are breaking out of the OBV high, you could enter a trade here but with a tight stop loss at $18.30. Probably not worth it IMO. Better to wait or look at the other smaller miners. I previously covered CIPHER Mining NASDAQ:CIFR and Marathon Digital Holdings NASDAQ:MARA both of which at similar junctures, however $CIPHER has had major developments of recent and could rise up to it next resistance at $9.60 fairly quickly over a few months (an 80% + move). You'll find these charts in my trading view link in my bio. I also cover some fundamentals on Trading view also. They are also in my feed hereunder. Play it safe PUKA
NASDAQ:RIOT
by PukaCharts
2
Bitfarms pullback before an attempt to go higher As BTC is pointing toward a pullback to the 21-20k area we can reasonably assume bitcoin mining stocks will also correct. NASDAQ:BITF is looking to go to the $.75-.60 support area before gearing up to go higher to $2, the next area of resistance. On the fundamental side the company is one of the stronger miners with one of the highest Bitcoin mined per 1 EH/s metric twitter.com . Just as long as there is no addition share dilution I expect Bitfarms (and other miners) to outperform Bitcoin in a bull market on the run ups.
NASDAQ:BITFLong
by MostlyGood
Chart and fundamental analysis of Iris Energy Limited (IRIS)The operating result for the last quarter was published recently, on November 30, 2022. 1. Graphic Analysis As the company's core activity is Bitcoin mining, it is important to analyze the correlation with the price of Bitcoin. As you can see in the graph below, most of the time the correlation is positive. It seems to me that the price is at the end of wave 5, about to reverse the downtrend, which has lasted since the beginning. The DMI SMI Oscillator exhibits a bullish descending wedge. This same interpretation can be obtained on the RSI: 2. Fundamental analysis Net income has held steady for quite some time at $72 million. As of Q1 since year 2022, it has declined to minus -$2 million and has since been stable. The same reasoning can be applied to Earnings per Share versus Estimated Earnings per Share . The balance sheet remains healthy, with assets greater than liabilities. Even if there is a need to settle the net debt after the sale of assets, it would be comfortably honored. With regard to cash flow, money from third parties continues to decrease, which is positive. Money spent on investments follows a negative flow. A negative value of Cash From Investing Activities can show poor performance, but it can also be a sign of increased investment activities. While cash from operating activities remains stable at $4 million. The point to note negatively is the free cash flow, which has drastically reduced to -$210 million.
NASDAQ:IRENLong
by andre_007
Riot Blockchain solidified support for a move to the Upside.Riot Blockchain has been overlooked over the last few months. As Clearly seen on the chart, the correlation to Bitcoin's movements is closely correlated. > I Believe that an ascending support line has been tested multiple times but both Riot Blockchain and Bitcoin. > With the momentum driven by earnings season in the stock market providing significant upside potential for all equities, especially in the Tech Space. > Combined with Bitcoin's Recent strong upwards momentum from yet another confirmation of strong support. > We are likely to see a rapid rise in the price of Riot over the next few weeks. I think this is an ideal range to DCA at the lowest risk level we have seen Riot Blockchain range in for a significant time. 1) Be greedy when others are fearful. 2) If you believe in a Companies business and promising future outlook. Don't let a discount be the reason NOT the DCA in lower to a stock you believe will be significantly higher in the long term. 3) The fundamentals are one, if not the strongest in the mining business. With huge mining capacity coming online over the next few months. >>> Eyes on the Medium to Long Term Chap <<< Just one Long term focused Investor/Traders Opinion, not financial advice.
NASDAQ:RIOTLong
by FortunaAlgoAnalytics
59
RSI Signalling Riot Blockchain Oversold. Earnings Incoming!> Riot Blockchain has been dragged down by the greater tech market sell off. Bitcoin is still holding up. Considering the correlation Riot has to Bitcoin's price, this provides upwards momentum. > The Nasdaq is falling into daily and weekly Oversold RSI levels. This increases the likely hood of a bounce in equities, suggesting upward momentum in Riot. Earning season is in full swing with many earning releases due in May, including Riot's May 16th release. Fingers crossed that aggressive expansion plans will not damage their earning results too starkly. > Still awaiting the Crypto Miner FOMO. Likely to repeat when Wall Street and Retail, look for the highest return potential. >>> Market thoughts: > Check out "Game of Trades" on YouTube for some interesting market takes. Especially promising charts and correlations to consider in your Market outlook. > 2 year bond yield looks like it topping, signalling return to SOME risk taking.
NASDAQ:RIOTLong
by FortunaAlgoAnalytics
ANY 5.7 Exahash of computing powerSphere 3D Corp. (ANY) has a delal with NuMiner to buy 60,000 bitcoin mining machines for a total of 5.7 Exahash of computing power. I know the issue, the pictures from NuMiner were not their own, but what is they indeed deliver the performance? MARA Marathon Digital on the other hand is on-track to deploying 103,120 miners which will provide a combined output of 10.37 ExaHash, resulting in an estimated 50-60 BTC per day. I see an easy upside for ANY to reach $5.75. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:ANYLong
by TopgOptions
3
ANY Sphere 3D Hashrate computing power !!Sphere 3D Corp. (ANY) deal for rights to bitcoin mining agreements of 60,000 new bitcoin mining machines for a total of 5.7 Exahash of computing power. Marathon is on-track to deploying 103,120 miners which will provide a combined output of 10.37 ExaHash, resulting in an estimated 50-60 BTC per day. MARA Market Cap 5.036Bil vs ANY Market Cap 254Mil MARA 10.37 ExaHash vs ANY 5.7 Exahash Based on the fundamentals above, see 10X upside potential for ANY from here! My price target is 7usd by the end of the year and 12usd by the end of february.
NASDAQ:ANYLong
by TopgOptions