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Bitcoinprediction

Bitcoin is Ready to fill CME Gap!!!Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT )is approaching the Resistance zone($105,560-$104,940) , Downtrend line , and Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($105,654-$104,709) . According to Elliott's wave theory , Bitcoin seems to be completing wave 4 . Probably wave 4 will end in the Resistance zone($105,560-$104,940) . I expect Bitcoin to go towards filling the CME Gap($103,325-$101,840) AFTER breaking the Support line . ⚠️Note: US indices (Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement) can affect the trend of Bitcoin; the possibility that the market will get excited when the indices are announced is very high.⚠️ ⚠️Note: If Bitcoin breaks the Resistance zone($105,560-$104,940), we can expect Bitcoin to rise further, especially if Bitcoin touches $106,200.⚠️ 🙏Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.🙏 Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 15-minute time frame⏰. 🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
13
What a Daily BTC Update looks like Thank you for reading my post! I appreciate the time you have taken to stop by, please leave me a comment. Every day for nearly 10 years, I have updated BTC in the various groups I have owned or worked for. Follow as I post them here for the next 7 days! BTC UPDATE 21/12/2024 BTC has shown resilience, bouncing successfully in the current region with a successful retest, indicating strong buying interest. However, we’re not out of the woods yet—the market remains cautious, and confirmation is still needed for the next bullish leg. Key Weekly Pivot to Watch: $100,831 The weekly pivot at $100,831 is the critical level to reclaim. A close above this pivot would signal renewed bullish momentum and confirm the bounce as more than a relief rally. There may still be one more retest in the lower region, but a more condensed corrective pattern would reflect the support as holding. Scenarios to Prepare For Bullish Case: Close Above $100,831 A weekly close above this pivot could open the door to: Testing resistance zones around $105K to $108K. Reaffirming BTC’s macro uptrend and restoring market confidence. Bearish Case: Failure to Close Above $100,831 If BTC fails to hold or close above this region: Expect a potential revisit to support around $95K to $94K. Increased sell pressure could lead to deeper retracements, possibly targeting $85K as a more substantial support zone. Key Indicators to Monitor Watch RSI and MACD for signs of overbought or oversold conditions near key levels. Volume: A strong breakout above $100,831 should be accompanied by increasing volume, signalling conviction from buyers. Daily and Weekly Candle Closes: Focus on higher timeframes (daily and weekly) for confirmation of direction. Momentum Indicators: Watch RSI and MACD for signs of overbought or oversold conditions near key levels.
by LisaNEdwards
BTC Faces Significant Selling Pressure from Long-Term HoldersBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has faced intensified selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs), who have offloaded approximately 1 million BTC since mid-September, contributing to its current 13% dip from its all-time high of $108,000. This marks the largest discount since the U.S. presidential election. While short-term holders (STHs) have stepped in to absorb some of this supply, demand imbalance continues to weigh heavily on Bitcoin’s price. 1. Long-Term Holders’ Selling Behavior LTHs, defined as investors holding BTC for over 155 days, have been distributing their holdings as prices show strength. Over the past week, LTHs sold 70,000 BTC in a single day, marking the fourth-largest one-day sell-off this year, according to Glassnode data. Their holdings have dropped from 14.2 million BTC in September to 13.2 million BTC, signaling a strategic move to realize profits during this period of heightened market volatility. 2. Short-Term Holders Absorbing Supply STHs have accumulated 1.3 million BTC during the same period, partially offsetting LTHs' selling. However, this accumulation hasn’t been enough to sustain upward momentum, resulting in continued price weakness. 3. Market Liquidity and Exchange Activity The circulating supply of Bitcoin stands at 19.8 million tokens, with 2.8 million BTC held on exchanges. Notably, 200,000 BTC have exited exchanges in recent months, indicating a trend of investors moving assets to cold storage. This dwindling exchange balance could limit immediate liquidity, further impacting market dynamics. Technical Outlook Bitcoin is trading in a bearish zone, currently down 0.49% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 42. The recent market sell-off liquidated approximately $1.4 billion, exacerbating downward pressure. Key Levels to Watch Support Level: If selling persists, CRYPTOCAP:BTC could dip to $85,000, a key support level aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Resistance Level: For a bullish reversal, CRYPTOCAP:BTC must break through $101,000, a pivotal psychological and technical barrier that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Outlook and Implications The ongoing selling by LTHs reflects a strategic shift, possibly influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and profit-taking at current levels. Meanwhile, STHs’ buying activity suggests continued confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. However, the imbalance between supply and demand could lead to further short-term price volatility. Investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels and market activity from these cohorts to anticipate the next significant price movement. Conclusion Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains uncertain amid significant selling pressure from LTHs. While oversold technical indicators hint at a potential rebound, the lack of sufficient demand from STHs raises concerns about sustained recovery. The next few days will be critical for Bitcoin as it navigates these pivotal price levels. Will CRYPTOCAP:BTC bounce back like it has in past corrections, or is a deeper dip on the horizon? Only time will tell. Stay tuned for further updates!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
Bitcoin Fed Can’t Hold Bitcoin, No Plans Yet To Change Law, Powell Says Jerome Powell says the Fed isn't allowed to own Bitcoin. He also says the bank cannot create a stockpile of digital assets. The market immediately reacted to Powell's statement, sending Bitcoin's price down by 5.7%.Bitcoin Decline Continues: Are Bulls Losing Control? Bitcoin price extended losses and traded below the $100,000 zone. BTC is struggling and might continue to move down toward the $92,000 support zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline from the $102,000 resistance zone. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $98,500. Glassnode's Week on Chain report revealed the similarities between the current Bitcoin uptrend and previous cycles amid changing market conditions. Meanwhile, long-term investors began distributing their tokens at the $100K level, culminating in a new all-time high of $2.1 billion in realized profitsAccording to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode's weekly report, Bitcoin's current price performance has a striking resemblance with the 2015-2018 and 2018-2021 cycles despite the changing dynamics in its market structure. Like previous cycles, the selling pressure that accompanies sustained price increases has remained but at a much lower pace. The deepest drawdown in this cycle occurred on August 5, 2024, when prices dropped 32% below their peak
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by KingForex078
BTC SHORT TO $94,760Finally some clarity from BTC, well worth sitting on our hands for a short period. We created a short term down trend with multiple confirmations (SMA break and rejection, LL's & LH's etc) a retracement back to the golden ratio and a rejection from a major key level has resulted in some bearish momentum for BTC and all correlated markets. We'll se how this plays out as exhaustion will play some restriction in the momentum BTC can hold although i do think the target / 61.8% retracement level will be met of $94,760 Also currently waiting on BTC to produce a new LL on the 1H time frame so lets see how that pans out. I have moved stop to $11,065 to lock in 1.5% as we've been out the market for a few days. P.S, sorry slightly late on posting this idea
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by h77nry
1
Overbought Warning: Exercise Caution in Current Market Cycles ⚠️ Overbought Warning: Exercise Caution in Current Market Cycles ⚠️ Bitcoin and many altcoins are significantly overbought in their respective cycles. 🚨 Caution is strongly advised. Avoid jumping into investments late in the 1-week cycle. Instead, wait for the cycle to dip below 20 before considering an entry. 📉 🧠 Quick Recap: How to Use the Cycle Signals - ✅ Green Zone = Potential Buy Signal - 🚫 Red Zone = Potential Sell Signal We’ve been in the red zone for a considerable amount of time now, signaling heightened risk. A retracement appears likely, so patience is key! ⏳ The Danger of FOMO It’s tempting to trade when: - The market moves 24/7 🌐 - Influencers flaunt their PnL cards 📊 - News and activity are constant. 📢 But jumping into an overheated market can lead to losses, not gains. ✅ What to Do Instead: - Don’t chase the hype. - Missed a 10-15% gain? No problem! Compare that to the profits from buying in the green zone and selling in the red—you’ll make far more with less risk. 🔑 Stay Smart, Stay Patient Remember: **There’s nothing worse than watching your portfolio bleed daily.** Avoid the stress by simply waiting for better cycle opportunities. 💡 This is not financial advice. Always do your own research! 📖
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TheStrategyMaster
BTC / USDT: Bouncing back strong from key support BTC/USDT: Bouncing Back Strong from Key Support Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is showing resilience 💪 as it rebounds from a critical support level, signaling potential bullish momentum ahead 📈. This key level has previously acted as a launchpad for strong upward moves, and the current price action hints at a similar scenario unfolding 🚀. Key insights: 1. Strong support zone: BTC has bounced off a well-established support area, reinforcing its importance as a demand zone. 2. Momentum shift: Indicators like RSI and MACD are turning upward ⚡, hinting at renewed buyer interest. 3. Volume increase: Early signs of increasing volume suggest that bulls are stepping back into the market 🔥. Steps to confirm the uptrend: Watch for a clear 4H or daily candle close above immediate resistance levels 📍. Monitor trading volume; a surge in volume during upward moves strengthens the bullish case 📊. Look for higher highs and higher lows on the charts to confirm a trend reversal 📈. Risk management strategies: Set a stop-loss below the support level to limit potential losses 🔒. Scale into positions gradually as bullish confirmation develops 🎯. Avoid overleveraging; position size should align with your overall trading plan ✅. Important note: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) 🔍 and trade responsibly.
Long
by Crypto-By-Ghazi
Bitcoin Dips to $96K Amid MARA and Hut 8’s Major Accumulation SpBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), the flagship cryptocurrency, faced a notable price dip to $96,300, reflecting a 6% decline over the past 24 hours. Despite this, significant institutional purchases by MARA Holdings and Hut 8 highlight the growing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential. Institutional Accumulation on the Rise MARA recently purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529 per Bitcoin, totaling $1.53 billion. This acquisition, financed through zero-coupon convertible notes, has increased their holdings to 44,394 BTC, worth $4.45 billion at current prices. MARA’s year-to-date BTC yield stands at an impressive 60.9%, underscoring their strategic accumulation approach. Another institutional player, Hut 8, announced the purchase of 990 BTC for $100 million. These acquisitions demonstrate that major players view current prices as an attractive entry point, reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a store of value. Market Sentiment and Activity Despite the dip, CryptoQuant reports no signs of widespread panic selling. This indicates resilience among market participants, with many holding firm in anticipation of a rebound. Additionally, Bitcoin remains 4.59% up in December and 60% up over the past four months, reflecting its strong performance in the broader macroeconomic environment. Technical Analysis 1. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Bitcoin’s RSI currently sits at 35, signaling oversold conditions. Historically, such levels have often preceded a price rebound. 2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Immediate support is observed at the 65% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical zone that could stabilize the price. However, persistent selling pressure might push Bitcoin lower, with potential targets at: - $90,000 (1-month low) - $80,000 (key psychological level) 3. Volume and Liquidations: Over $100 million in liquidations occurred in the last 24 hours, suggesting significant market volatility. Short-Term Outlook While the dip has raised concerns, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong, bolstered by robust institutional demand. The oversold technical conditions and significant support levels suggest a potential recovery in the coming days. However, traders should remain cautious, as further dips could occur if broader market conditions deteriorate. Conclusion Bitcoin’s dip to $96K reflects short-term volatility, but the sustained interest from institutional players like MARA and Hut 8 underscores its long-term potential. As market sentiment stabilizes, Bitcoin could see renewed bullish momentum, making this an opportune moment for investors to assess their strategies.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DEXWireNews
Bitcoin: Hold now, buy laterHello, Bitcoin is a clear uptrend as the price is above the moving averages, as the picture on the left side of the chart shows. Technical indicators like Ultimate Oscillator, ADX, MOM, and MACD are bullish. However, RSI indicators are overbought, which means Bitcoin might go higher, but there'll be a better time to buy when the market corrects the overbought conditions. I hold my Bitcoins, but I won't buy any more until the upcoming correction, which might come soon. Regards, Ely
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Elysian_Mind
Bitcoin Likely to See Slow and Choppy Price ActionBitcoin has re-entered the range zone between $99,108 and $103,033, suggesting that we may experience slow and choppy price action in the coming days. 1. For now, Bitcoin has established support at $99,108, which could lead to increased bullish momentum toward the upper boundary of the range at $103,033. This move could occur from the current price level or after a dip back to $99,108 (dashed green projection). 2. A strong breakout above $103,033 with sustained momentum would turn Bitcoin bullish on the 4-hour chart and could set the stage for a rally toward $107,658, the next significant resistance zone (solid green projection). 3. If Bitcoin fails to hold support at $99,108 and breaks below this level, the chart would turn bearish (dashed red projection). The bulls’ last line of defense is at $97,000. A breach below this level could lead to intensified bearish pressure, driving the price toward the $94,500 support zone (solid red projection). Consolidation within the $99,108 to $103,033 range, with Bitcoin maintaining a moderately bullish bias, could create favorable conditions for Altcoins to perform well.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Trade-Lean
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis – December 21, 2024Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis – December 21, 2024 Overview: Let’s focus on Bitcoin (BTC/USD). Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has been pumping steadily, but it now appears to be losing momentum. The market structure has created an imbalance, suggesting a potential decline in the coming weeks. Trade Idea: Potential Buy Zone: The price could fall to the marked zone around $73,000. Entry Timing: Avoid entering immediately when the price reaches this level. Instead, wait for a clear reaction—such as bullish confirmation or upward momentum—before considering a buying opportunity. Key Considerations: This setup is similar to the structure seen in the German Index (DE40), which showed comparable behavior before a significant drop. The resemblance in patterns could signal a similar outcome for Bitcoin. Monitor price action closely in the coming weeks for signs of reversal once the price reaches the anticipated zone. Risk Management: Do Not Rush: This is not financial advice. Always wait for clear entry signals before making any decisions. Stay Disciplined: Protecting your capital is more important than making profits. Use proper stop-loss levels to safeguard your trades. Trading Requires Patience: A reactive approach is key. Trading is about responding to what the market shows you, not forcing predictions. Final Note: Making no money is always better than losing money. Watch Bitcoin closely in the coming weeks, and stay disciplined in your analysis. Let’s see how the market unfolds. See you in the next update!
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by KainT21
BTC.D Analysis: Retest of Key Area Highly LikelyBitcoin Dominance Looking Bitcoin dominance looks very strong but BTC has entered the range. So I think dominance may follow a calmer course for a while, a few coins that have separated from the herd may make good moves in these few days, but it is too early to claim that the general atmosphere is completely bullish, because SP500 seems to be making a deep correction and is giving signals of this. I do not buy anything during the New Year, and I will not buy, but then I will spend all of these corrections with buying because I believe that 2025 will be good. A retest of this area in BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) seems very possible based on current market behavior. This level holds significance as a potential reaction zone for further movements. Also, I see no point in saying that this view of dominance supports the blue box analysis I shared here: Because when BTC goes down to blue box we will see an upside move on dominance then we blue box of dominance chart will support the price, we will see an upmove on both. Key Points: Current Setup: BTC.D is approaching a critical area of interest. Retest Likelihood: Market dynamics suggest a probable revisit to this zone. Focus: Monitoring the reaction at this level for future directional clarity. If you think this analysis helps you, please don't forget to boost and comment on this. These motivate me to share more insights with you! I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by XU99
Bitcoin | Low Timeframe TradeIf the market breaks below the red line, I will place an order at 98.464$ as shown in the figure. This is a low timeframe trade and please do not take too much risk on it. I usually do my analysis in the high timeframe and take most of my risk there. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
Long
by XU99
Bitcoin: How to Trade the Ranges Like a ProWe are in a relative range. The reactions from the 0.5 levels are proof of this. In a similar analysis, I had previously made one of the best trades that could be made in BTC. The manipulations of this range at the 0.25 and -1.25 levels are not very regular. Also, the movements it makes are far from creating symmetry, so we cannot compare this analysis to the previous one. How to trade here? First of all, we are not in any serious demand area and it would not be wise to assume that there is any serious resistance range. So what will we do? We will try to find entries from the upper and lower parts of this range. My short analysis on the upper part is available here. The initiative at the bottom can be the Range Low and the green line. So can the price continue down without giving a short opportunity? Of course it can, in this case our stop loss order will be triggered. I don't like to take high risk in such non-serious demand areas. However, I don't want to neglect a point that can give 1 to 3-4 in the lower area of ​​the range. If my long order comes, I will take a large part of my profit on the upper part of the range, pull my stop to the entry and open the short trade. Don't hesitate to carry two trades in two directions, especially if the price seems to form a range. And when the price starts to go voluminously below or above the range, definitely let your stop order be executed and stop your loss. If you think this helps you, please don't forget to boost and comment on this. These motivate me to share with you. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
Long
by XU99
IBIT Bitcoin Trust ETF Technical Analysis Trade This chart highlights a parabolic uptrend in IBIT, with price making a significant move from consolidation to new highs. The chart includes pivot levels (S1, R1, R2), dark pool levels, moving averages (8 EMA and 21 EMA), and volume, all of which help in understanding the current price action and predicting potential moves. Key Observations: 1. Trend Structure: The chart shows a strong uptrend supported by the 8 EMA and 21 EMA. A breakout above the 61.99 resistance (R1) occurred recently, but price has since pulled back slightly, consolidating near 56.10, which aligns with a dark pool level. 2. Support and Resistance: Resistance Levels: 61.99 (R1): The key breakout level, which price is currently retesting as resistance. 68.77 (R2): The next significant resistance and a long-term target for bulls. Support Levels: 56.10: A dark pool level and immediate support zone. 53.00: Key short-term support near the 21 EMA. 47.30 (S1): A deeper support level in case of a larger pullback. 3. Volume Analysis: A high volume breakout occurred recently, suggesting strong interest from institutions or retail traders. However, recent volume bars are slightly lower, indicating that the bullish momentum is consolidating. This could lead to either a continuation higher or a pullback to support. 4. Moving Averages: The 8 EMA is currently acting as immediate dynamic support, while the 21 EMA (~53.00) provides a secondary layer of support. As long as the price remains above these moving averages, the uptrend remains intact. Trade Setup: Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation Trigger: A breakout above 61.99 (R1) on high volume would confirm bullish continuation. Profit Targets: 68.77 (R2): The next major resistance level. 70-75: A potential extension zone in a strong parabolic move. Stop-Loss: Below 56.10, as a break below this level would signal a loss of bullish momentum. Scenario 2: Pullback to Support Trigger: If price fails to break above 61.99 and pulls back, look for buying opportunities near: 56.10 (dark pool level): Immediate support. 53.00 (21 EMA): A stronger support level for a bounce. Profit Targets: 61.99: Retest of the breakout level. 68.77 (R2): Higher target if the trend resumes. Stop-Loss: Below 52, as this would indicate a breakdown below the key EMAs. Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown Trigger: A strong close below 53.00 with high volume would signal bearish momentum. Profit Targets: 47.30 (S1): First major pivot support. 41.00-43.00: A retest of previous consolidation levels. Stop-Loss: Above 56.10, as a reclaim of this level would invalidate the bearish thesis. Final Thoughts: Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near 56.10 suggests the potential for either a breakout above 61.99 or a pullback to key support zones. Long-Term Outlook: The parabolic nature of the trend suggests strong bullish sentiment, with deeper pullbacks offering opportunities to re-enter the trend. Watch volume closely to confirm either a breakout or a breakdown, as institutional activity (dark pool levels) will likely play a significant role.
NASDAQ:IBIT
by thedarkpooltrader
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429. However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.' While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes. In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded): 1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x 2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x 3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x 4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x 5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors: 624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease) 122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease) 22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease) 7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease) The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916. There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around: On the bullish side: It's 'different' this cycle A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs Currency debasement means more demand for BTC The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow The halving pattern is still playing out Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest On the bearish side: The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction) A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now. There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021 The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble Discussion I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides. On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April. While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher. On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern. It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t . However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar. In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin. This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve). 2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs. Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k. There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals. Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy. Conclusion In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here. There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently. As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by pasojov
1
BITCOIN | IF DECLINE GOES DEEPERThe possibility of a deepening decline appears serious, and it’s essential to stay prepared for such scenarios. I have identified my hedge short levels at the red boxes, which I consider key areas for managing risk and capitalizing on potential downward movements. Monitoring these levels closely will be crucial to adapting effectively to the market's evolving structure. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
Long
by XU99
Bitcoin Bubble Is Bitcoin Heading for a Bubble Burst in 2025? Bitcoin’s price movements have historically followed a predictable 4-year cycle, driven by its halving events. These halvings, which cut mining rewards by half, have consistently triggered parabolic bull runs, followed by significant corrections. Past cycles demonstrate this pattern clearly: the 2012 halving led to a massive rally in 2013, only to be followed by an 80% crash in 2014; the 2016 halving fueled the 2017 rally to $20,000, followed by an 85% correction in 2018; and the 2020 halving saw Bitcoin peak at $69,000 in 2021, before a sharp downturn in 2022. As the next halving approaches in 2024, many traders and investors are questioning whether history will repeat itself, with a potential “bubble burst” looming in 2025. Adding to this, recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have raised concerns about the broader macroeconomic environment, which could contribute to speculative bubbles forming. Powell has hinted at potential risks of overextended financial markets, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a “higher for longer” stance on interest rates. This policy could dampen liquidity and speculative growth, which often fuels Bitcoin’s parabolic rallies. Powell’s warnings signal that Bitcoin could face heightened risk of a sharp correction if valuations become unsustainable. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin currently shows signs of forming a bearish flag pattern on higher timeframes. This pattern, if confirmed, suggests a potential breakdown and retracement to key support zones. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often retraces 50%-80% of its bull market gains during bear markets. If Bitcoin reaches a speculative peak in late 2024 or early 2025—potentially exceeding $120,000—a correction of this magnitude could bring it back to $70,000 or lower, aligning with past market behaviors. The $70,000 level could act as a crucial support zone, as it represents a psychological threshold and a region of high trading volume from the 2021 bull market. However, if macroeconomic factors such as rising interest rates, regulatory pressures, or liquidity constraints intensify, Bitcoin could even breach this level temporarily, much like it did during previous cycles when fear dominated the market. While Bitcoin’s fundamentals have improved due to increased institutional adoption, Bitcoin ETFs, and its role as a hedge against inflation, traders must remain cautious. With speculative mania likely to drive Bitcoin to new highs post-halving, the risk of a significant correction by mid-to-late 2025 remains high. If the bearish flag confirms and Powell’s warnings materialize, Bitcoin revisiting the $70,000 level could become a reality.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by smitkathiriya100
2
Bitcoin | First Line of DefenseBitcoin's first line of defense lies within the blue boxes, marking potential areas of interest. However, there are currently no significant demand zones, making it more prudent to wait for upside breakouts on lower timeframes before considering a buyer's position. Given the uncertainty around the depth of the ongoing correction, it's wise to maintain some cash reserves to adapt to market movements effectively. Patience and careful observation will be key in navigating this phase. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active
Long
by XU99
Bearish USDT.D Bounce Off Support Trendline, Total 2 + Total3 Here's a follow up study to my USDT.D analysis from a few weeks ago, showing the markets typically sell off and put in a near term market top when Tether Dominance bounces off this key trendline (since 2018). This is likely a sign of further downside on Bitcoin and the Total Market Cap with a further 20% correction likely before we bounce again. Hopefully in time for a Santa Claus Rally. Also I look at how price clearly rejected on the Total 2 and Total 3 Market Cap's at the old ATH's from 2021. So it's no surprise markets are selling off here. I've been saying 'Show me the charts, and I'll tell you the news' for years... So while Powell's comments today were Bearish, it was incidental. The market needed a cooldown, and the FOMC comments today were just the catalyst. Let me know what you think below, and go ahead and like the video if you'd like me to do more of these here on the TV channel. For more about us, check out the links in my Bio.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by BrettFogle
2
Bitcoin Futures Confirming 3 Drives of Bearish Divergence In the recent analysis of futures on the daily timeframe, a technical pattern known as the "3 Drives of Divergence" has been confirmed, signaling a potential trend reversal. This pattern, often associated with strong bearish momentum, has been observed with a divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), further supporting the bearish outlook. RSI Divergence: The RSI, a momentum oscillator, shows a bearish divergence where the price makes higher highs, but the RSI makes lower highs. This is a classic sign of weakening upward momentum, often preceding a price decline. Key Levels: Reversal Pivot: If the price closes below 97K on a daily timeframe. This pivot is critical as it is the last resistance before a potential downtrend. Target Futures Gap Fill: Historical price action suggests a gap in the futures market that might get filled. This target zone, marked on the chart, could act as a price magnet for Bitcoin if bearish pressures continue.
CME:BTC1!Short
by RSI_Trading_Concepts
Bitcoin Tests Key Support: Eyes on $103KBitcoin is technically bullish in the 4-Hour chart. However, it gave up bullish move from the last days and is now testing the key support zone near $103,033. 1. A pullback to retest the $103,032 with a dip below it, followed by a strong rebound above this level will push Bitcoin price towards $108,550 (dashed green projection). 2. A decisive move towards $108,550 and breakout with confidence could pave the way for further upward momentum towards $113,692(solid green projection). 3. If Bitcoin fails to hold above $103,032 and breaks below this level without a swift recovery, it could indicate a loss of bullish strength and Bitcoin chart will turn to neutral. This may trigger increased bearish activity, leading to sideways movement or a potential decline toward the $99,108 support level (red projections).
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Trade-Lean