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Bitcoin (BTC): What’s Next After This Correction?Good morning, trading family! Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is in a correction, and here’s what could happen next: Option 1: BTC corrects to the $84K range and then makes a move to $11K+. Option 2: We drop further into the $74K zone, then push higher. Option 3: A deeper drop to the $60-$55K zone, followed by a recovery. These are the levels I’m watching. Let’s stay focused and be ready for the next big move! Wellness Challenge: I challenge you to try one of the wellness tips that I added to my videos that I did today ! It could be drinking more water, eating better, or taking short breaks. Pick one and stick with it for a week—let me know how it works for you! Comment, like, follow, or send me a message if you want more details or want to share how your challenge is going! Kris/Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by Mindbloome-Trading
4
BTC/USD Weekly Chart Analysis: Potential Price Scenarios in 2025Overview: Bitcoin has displayed remarkable strength in the past few months, approaching critical levels in its long-term ascending channel. The current price action reflects bullish momentum, but there are key levels to watch for potential corrections or continuations. Here’s my detailed analysis based on this weekly chart. Key Observations: Ascending Channel: BTC is trading near the upper boundary of a well-established ascending channel, which has historically acted as resistance. If this boundary is broken with strong volume, the next potential target lies around $116,000. Structure Levels: A Weak High at $102,000 indicates the possibility of a short-term pullback before testing the resistance zone. Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) signals confirm bullish dominance, but corrections are part of healthy price action. Moving Averages: The 50-week and 100-week moving averages continue to slope upward, with price trading well above these levels, signaling a strong bullish trend. Any retracement could find support at the 50-week MA or the mid-range of the channel. Support and Resistance Zones: Resistance: $102,000–$116,000. Support: $76,000 (Golden Pocket) and $64,000. Indicators: RSI is currently overbought at 75, indicating the potential for a cooling-off phase. MACD shows bullish momentum but hints at overextension as the histogram peaks. Projected Scenario: Scenario 1: BTC tests the Weak High at $102,000, faces rejection, and consolidates near the mid-range before attempting to break higher. Scenario 2: BTC breaks out of the ascending channel, initiating a parabolic move toward $116,000. Potential Risks: A failure to hold support at $76,000 could lead to a deeper correction, testing key structural levels like $64,000 and $42,000. Macro factors such as interest rate decisions or global economic uncertainties could heavily impact sentiment. Conclusion: Bitcoin is in a strong bull market phase, but caution is warranted near the upper boundary of the channel. Traders should monitor key levels and volume for confirmation of breakout or rejection. A pullback to the mid-range could provide an excellent buying opportunity for long-term holders. Would love to hear your thoughts—do you expect a breakout or a correction? Let me know in the comments below! Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by rukshan2102
Bitcoin's Rally Loses Steam: A Reversal Pattern Takes Shape● Bitcoin reached a record high of approximately $108,390, driven by strong bullish momentum. ● However, the rally was short-lived as intense selling pressure kicked in, triggering a rapid decline to $92,500 and erasing some of the recent gains. ● The frequent price fluctuations are likely to form a Head & Shoulder pattern, a bearish pattern that indicates a potential trend reversal and further downside. ● A sharp decline is expected if Bitcoin breaches below $91,500.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by NaranjCapital
DAY 3 - Daily BTC UpdateBitcoin must hold the key support level of $92,300 to maintain its bullish outlook and validate the Dragonfly Doji pattern on the daily timeframe. There is conflicting data, with momentum indicating increasing selling pressure, reflected in the formation of lower highs on the daily chart, but the STOCH RSI has bottomed. Bitcoin’s hash rate—the computational power used to mine and process transactions—has risen by 5.48% to 830.78 EH/s, showcasing stronger network security and processing power. Despite this, mining difficulty remains unchanged at 108.52 T, suggesting that while miners are contributing more power, the effort required to mine a block has not yet been adjusted. The Crypto Greed and Fear Index currently stands at 70, indicating market greed. While this sentiment suggests confidence, it could also signal caution as investors may pull back from further price increases after the recent decline. The total cryptocurrency market cap has dropped by approximately 2.9%, with Bitcoin dominance slightly decreasing to 55.1%, reflecting minor shifts in market dynamics. In trading, long liquidations have surged, with over $38 million in Bitcoin long positions liquidated within four hours. This sharp move signals a potential bearish turn, driven by traders taking profits or reacting to external pressures. Despite this, declining trading volume suggests fewer sellers in the market, which could hint at stabilisation or a potential reversal. On-chain data provides a more optimistic perspective. Whale accumulation has increased, and exchange liquidity inventory ratios have declined, signalling that large holders are likely accumulating Bitcoin for longer-term gains or anticipating a price recovery. Moreover, exchange reserves are decreasing, reducing the immediate supply of Bitcoin available for sale. This dynamic supports a potential price rebound if current trends persist. The past 24 hours have been volatile, with Bitcoin leaning bearish in the short term. However, the underlying on-chain metrics—such as whale activity and reduced exchange reserves—suggest that bullish investors still have hope. A buy-the-dip opportunity may arise if Bitcoin forms a higher low in the coming sessions, potentially paving the way for a recovery. I am still Buying the Dips :) PS there were a few more images on the in group update - but not allowed under Trading View Rules - Sorry :(
by LisaNEdwards
"In markets, gravity always wins."📉 Bitcoin Analysis (BTC/USD) 📉 Bitcoin's meteoric 100% rise since September screams overextension. The euphoria may be fading, and a correction looks imminent. 🔻 Key Levels to Watch: $73,800: The first major support—breaking this could accelerate the drop. $65,600: A likely target if bears take full control. The chart suggests BTC is overdue for a pullback. Corrections after such rallies aren’t just likely—they’re inevitable. Bulls, buckle up. Bears, this might be your moment. "In markets, gravity always wins."
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by Charts_M7M
Bitcoin's Next Move - Do or DieBitcoin www.tradingview.com has been in a downfall lately, prompting altcoins to dip to lows we haven't seen for months. As you can see in the chart above, bitcoin is teetering on the edge of this regression trend, falling beneath this 95k mark could spark another sell off, with 92k being the next line of support and likely 85k after that. A bounce to the upside here will probably bring btc back to the mean of the trend at around 100k. A break above 100k could send us to new all time highs! Smash the rocket and follow for daily updates during this critical time!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by StonkMarketParty
NSTR - Technical Analysis of Key Bullish and Bearish LevelsKey Observations: Expanded Volume Profile: The volume profile on the left indicates significant trading activity (support/resistance zones). The high-volume node around 360–380 suggests a key area of interest where the price might consolidate or face resistance/support. Bullish Levels: Bullish Week (376): A breakout above this level could trigger upward momentum toward 400 and potentially higher. Close Week Swing (363): Currently being tested. Sustained strength above this level would be a sign of bullish continuation. Key Target at 400: Bullish swing level acting as a psychological and technical resistance point. Bearish Levels: Bear Swing (348): A breakdown below this level could lead to further downside, with the next support at Bear Week (325). Week ATR (328): If the price approaches this level, it signals a deeper bearish sentiment. Price Action: The yellow line shows a recovery attempt after a sharp drop. The price appears to be testing resistance at Close Week Swing (363). The upward trend from lower levels near 325 suggests some buying interest at lower prices. Annotations and Targets: Close Week Swing (363) is pivotal; crossing this level with volume might lead to a test of higher resistance levels. The area around 325–328 has shown strong support previously, and a retest might attract buyers. Analysis: Bullish Scenario: The price needs to decisively close above 363 to gain bullish momentum. If this happens, look for targets at 376 and then 400. Volume supporting an upward move would confirm bullish sentiment. The Bullish Week (376) level is critical for mid-term trend confirmation. Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold above 363 could lead to a retest of 348 (Bear Swing) and possibly further downward moves toward 325–328. Increased volume at lower levels might indicate bearish control. Neutral Scenario: Consolidation between 348 and 363 could signal indecision, with a breakout or breakdown likely depending on market sentiment. Recommendations: For Bullish Traders: Look for strong volume above 363 and consider targets at 376 and 400. Watch for consolidation near 360–363 as a possible entry point. For Bearish Traders: A rejection at 363 or a breakdown below 348 would signal opportunities to target 325–328. Use volume and candlestick patterns to confirm breakdowns. Risk Management: Stops should be placed slightly beyond key levels (e.g., above 376 for shorts or below 348 for longs). This setup emphasizes the importance of the 363 level as a tipping point for direction. Let me know if you'd like further insights!
NASDAQ:MSTR
by BIGonTRADING
Bitcoin BTC Has Almost Finished Correction: Huge Gains Ahead!Hello, Skyrexians! We hope you made a right decision when received the warning sign by our Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator from our previous Bitcoin analysis . Now we see that this correction is happening right now and there is some space to go down more but not that much as you may be think. Let's take a look at the daily BINANCE:BTCUSDT chart. We can see that our indicator has printed the red dot at the top of the wave 3. After that this dump has been started. This is wave 4 and it has the clear target between 0.38 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels. Therefore we can conclude that max target which price can reach before the reversal is 84k, but it's more likely the reversal will happen earlier, at $89k. When correction will be finished we can expect the wave 5 with the optimistic targets between $120k and $140k. Here is nothing change from the last analysis. As always, alerts from this indicator are automatically replicated on my accounts. You can find the information in our article on TradingView . Best regards, Skyrexio Team ___________________________________________________________ Please, boost this article and subscribe our page if you like analysis!
by Skyrexio
Doge, Bitcoin and the Monthly LMACD Let me start by explaning what you are seeing here, at the top is Bitcoin , bellow doge and the bottom is the LMACD on the monthly time frame for Bitcoin. As I have stated in multiple occasions bull markets typically last for about 26 bars or 793 days(green histograms of the LMACD). Once those 793 days ends you see the LMACD crossing bearish and starting the transition to the bear market. Using this pattern I came to the conclusion that this bull market should be running till Sep2025. Now if you look closely the 2017 cycle top arrived 4 bars(months) before the the end of the bull market, 2021 cycle top around 5 bars and maybe 2025 cycle top would be 6 bars before Sep. This might suggest topping in March2025 for BITCOIN and exactly 1 bar after this the DOGE top in April2025.
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by elalemiami
2
DAY 2 - Daily BTC Update Yesterday's Update I’ve dropped the chart to a daily timeframe to analyse signals that upward momentum could return. Here's what I’m seeing: STOCH RSI: The indicator is nearing a cross, historically pointing to a potential bounce. 0.236 Fibonacci Level: The current candle at this level is a Dragonfly Doji, which, if confirmed by the next few candles, is often a signal for reversal. Many of you have asked why markets dipped despite the 25bps rate cut. Here’s the insight: Federal Reserve Outlook: The Fed has signalled fewer rate cuts in 2025, tempering market enthusiasm and creating uncertainty in risk assets, including Bitcoin. BTC Exchange Net Outflows: Over the past 24 hours, 4,169 BTC have been removed from exchanges, continuing a two-day streak of net outflows. This suggests a decreasing supply of Bitcoin on exchanges, a possible sign that holders are moving assets to cold storage or other off-exchange wallets, signalling confidence in holding for the longer term. Supply and Demand in Bitcoin Understanding supply and demand is crucial for interpreting Bitcoin’s price movements: Supply: When the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges decreases, as we’re seeing now, it often indicates that fewer people are willing to sell. Holders moving BTC to cold storage or off-exchange wallets typically signal confidence in Bitcoin’s future value and reduce the immediate availability for trading. Demand: If demand for Bitcoin remains constant or increases while supply decreases, basic economic principles suggest that prices will likely rise. Conversely, if demand weakens while supply remains limited, the price can stagnate or fall. Right now, the net outflows from exchanges suggest supply is tightening, setting the stage for potential upward price pressure if demand increases. Now we need to watch and wait for a TETHER print that often happens with increased demand. Please give me a like if this has helped and see you again tomorrow :)
by LisaNEdwards
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis – December 21, 2024Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis – December 21, 2024 Overview: Let’s focus on Bitcoin (BTC/USD). Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has been pumping steadily, but it now appears to be losing momentum. The market structure has created an imbalance, suggesting a potential decline in the coming weeks. Trade Idea: Potential Buy Zone: The price could fall to the marked zone around $73,000. Entry Timing: Avoid entering immediately when the price reaches this level. Instead, wait for a clear reaction—such as bullish confirmation or upward momentum—before considering a buying opportunity. Key Considerations: This setup is similar to the structure seen in the German Index (DE40), which showed comparable behavior before a significant drop. The resemblance in patterns could signal a similar outcome for Bitcoin. Monitor price action closely in the coming weeks for signs of reversal once the price reaches the anticipated zone. Risk Management: Do Not Rush: This is not financial advice. Always wait for clear entry signals before making any decisions. Stay Disciplined: Protecting your capital is more important than making profits. Use proper stop-loss levels to safeguard your trades. Trading Requires Patience: A reactive approach is key. Trading is about responding to what the market shows you, not forcing predictions. Final Note: Making no money is always better than losing money. Watch Bitcoin closely in the coming weeks, and stay disciplined in your analysis. Let’s see how the market unfolds. See you in the next update!
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by KainT21
Bitcoin | Low Timeframe TradeIf the market breaks below the red line, I will place an order at 98.464$ as shown in the figure. This is a low timeframe trade and please do not take too much risk on it. I usually do my analysis in the high timeframe and take most of my risk there. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
Long
by XU99
Bitcoin: How to Trade the Ranges Like a ProWe are in a relative range. The reactions from the 0.5 levels are proof of this. In a similar analysis, I had previously made one of the best trades that could be made in BTC. The manipulations of this range at the 0.25 and -1.25 levels are not very regular. Also, the movements it makes are far from creating symmetry, so we cannot compare this analysis to the previous one. How to trade here? First of all, we are not in any serious demand area and it would not be wise to assume that there is any serious resistance range. So what will we do? We will try to find entries from the upper and lower parts of this range. My short analysis on the upper part is available here. The initiative at the bottom can be the Range Low and the green line. So can the price continue down without giving a short opportunity? Of course it can, in this case our stop loss order will be triggered. I don't like to take high risk in such non-serious demand areas. However, I don't want to neglect a point that can give 1 to 3-4 in the lower area of ​​the range. If my long order comes, I will take a large part of my profit on the upper part of the range, pull my stop to the entry and open the short trade. Don't hesitate to carry two trades in two directions, especially if the price seems to form a range. And when the price starts to go voluminously below or above the range, definitely let your stop order be executed and stop your loss. If you think this helps you, please don't forget to boost and comment on this. These motivate me to share with you. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
Long
by XU99
When and Where this Bull Market Ends / BTC.D and TOTAL3 BehaviorCRYPTOCAP:BTC.D Bitcoin Dominance and Alt Season Trigger: The chart indicates that when Bitcoin Dominance reaches around 59%-64%, there’s a high chance of an BTC dominance market correction. This level often signals the end of a Bitcoin rally and the start of funds flowing into altcoins. You can use this dominance level as a timing signal to anticipate the start of the next alt season. Historical Patterns and Timelines: Key vertical markers show important dates from past cycles, such as 2018, 2021, and projected points for 2025. These points highlight recurring patterns that can help forecast the end of the current Bitcoin rally. TOTAL3 Index Trends Relative to BTC: The TOTAL3 index (all altcoins excluding BTC and ETH) shows that after Bitcoin Dominance declines, TOTAL3 often experiences a sharp rise. This pattern has repeated in previous cycles, hinting at a potential similar move in the upcoming alt season. Bitcoin Price Rallies and Corrections: The lower chart shows Bitcoin's bullish and bearish phases, typically lasting between 450 to 550 days. This timeframe can help estimate the remaining duration of the current Bitcoin rally. Future Predictions: Based on the chart, Bitcoin Dominance is expected to reach critical levels again in 2025, potentially marking the start of the next major alt season. While this timeline depends on market conditions and investor behavior, it offers a general framework.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by CrazyS
IBIT Bitcoin Trust ETF Technical Analysis Trade This chart highlights a parabolic uptrend in IBIT, with price making a significant move from consolidation to new highs. The chart includes pivot levels (S1, R1, R2), dark pool levels, moving averages (8 EMA and 21 EMA), and volume, all of which help in understanding the current price action and predicting potential moves. Key Observations: 1. Trend Structure: The chart shows a strong uptrend supported by the 8 EMA and 21 EMA. A breakout above the 61.99 resistance (R1) occurred recently, but price has since pulled back slightly, consolidating near 56.10, which aligns with a dark pool level. 2. Support and Resistance: Resistance Levels: 61.99 (R1): The key breakout level, which price is currently retesting as resistance. 68.77 (R2): The next significant resistance and a long-term target for bulls. Support Levels: 56.10: A dark pool level and immediate support zone. 53.00: Key short-term support near the 21 EMA. 47.30 (S1): A deeper support level in case of a larger pullback. 3. Volume Analysis: A high volume breakout occurred recently, suggesting strong interest from institutions or retail traders. However, recent volume bars are slightly lower, indicating that the bullish momentum is consolidating. This could lead to either a continuation higher or a pullback to support. 4. Moving Averages: The 8 EMA is currently acting as immediate dynamic support, while the 21 EMA (~53.00) provides a secondary layer of support. As long as the price remains above these moving averages, the uptrend remains intact. Trade Setup: Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation Trigger: A breakout above 61.99 (R1) on high volume would confirm bullish continuation. Profit Targets: 68.77 (R2): The next major resistance level. 70-75: A potential extension zone in a strong parabolic move. Stop-Loss: Below 56.10, as a break below this level would signal a loss of bullish momentum. Scenario 2: Pullback to Support Trigger: If price fails to break above 61.99 and pulls back, look for buying opportunities near: 56.10 (dark pool level): Immediate support. 53.00 (21 EMA): A stronger support level for a bounce. Profit Targets: 61.99: Retest of the breakout level. 68.77 (R2): Higher target if the trend resumes. Stop-Loss: Below 52, as this would indicate a breakdown below the key EMAs. Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown Trigger: A strong close below 53.00 with high volume would signal bearish momentum. Profit Targets: 47.30 (S1): First major pivot support. 41.00-43.00: A retest of previous consolidation levels. Stop-Loss: Above 56.10, as a reclaim of this level would invalidate the bearish thesis. Final Thoughts: Short-Term Outlook: Consolidation near 56.10 suggests the potential for either a breakout above 61.99 or a pullback to key support zones. Long-Term Outlook: The parabolic nature of the trend suggests strong bullish sentiment, with deeper pullbacks offering opportunities to re-enter the trend. Watch volume closely to confirm either a breakout or a breakdown, as institutional activity (dark pool levels) will likely play a significant role.
NASDAQ:IBIT
by thedarkpooltrader
What a Daily BTC Update looks like Thank you for reading my post! I appreciate the time you have taken to stop by, please leave me a comment. Every day for nearly 10 years, I have updated BTC in the various groups I have owned or worked for. Follow as I post them here for the next 7 days! BTC UPDATE 21/12/2024 BTC has shown resilience, bouncing successfully in the current region with a successful retest, indicating strong buying interest. However, we’re not out of the woods yet—the market remains cautious, and confirmation is still needed for the next bullish leg. Key Weekly Pivot to Watch: $100,831 The weekly pivot at $100,831 is the critical level to reclaim. A close above this pivot would signal renewed bullish momentum and confirm the bounce as more than a relief rally. There may still be one more retest in the lower region, but a more condensed corrective pattern would reflect the support as holding. Scenarios to Prepare For Bullish Case: Close Above $100,831 A weekly close above this pivot could open the door to: Testing resistance zones around $105K to $108K. Reaffirming BTC’s macro uptrend and restoring market confidence. Bearish Case: Failure to Close Above $100,831 If BTC fails to hold or close above this region: Expect a potential revisit to support around $95K to $94K. Increased sell pressure could lead to deeper retracements, possibly targeting $85K as a more substantial support zone. Key Indicators to Monitor Watch RSI and MACD for signs of overbought or oversold conditions near key levels. Volume: A strong breakout above $100,831 should be accompanied by increasing volume, signalling conviction from buyers. Daily and Weekly Candle Closes: Focus on higher timeframes (daily and weekly) for confirmation of direction. Momentum Indicators: Watch RSI and MACD for signs of overbought or oversold conditions near key levels.
by LisaNEdwards
BTC Faces Significant Selling Pressure from Long-Term HoldersBitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has faced intensified selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs), who have offloaded approximately 1 million BTC since mid-September, contributing to its current 13% dip from its all-time high of $108,000. This marks the largest discount since the U.S. presidential election. While short-term holders (STHs) have stepped in to absorb some of this supply, demand imbalance continues to weigh heavily on Bitcoin’s price. 1. Long-Term Holders’ Selling Behavior LTHs, defined as investors holding BTC for over 155 days, have been distributing their holdings as prices show strength. Over the past week, LTHs sold 70,000 BTC in a single day, marking the fourth-largest one-day sell-off this year, according to Glassnode data. Their holdings have dropped from 14.2 million BTC in September to 13.2 million BTC, signaling a strategic move to realize profits during this period of heightened market volatility. 2. Short-Term Holders Absorbing Supply STHs have accumulated 1.3 million BTC during the same period, partially offsetting LTHs' selling. However, this accumulation hasn’t been enough to sustain upward momentum, resulting in continued price weakness. 3. Market Liquidity and Exchange Activity The circulating supply of Bitcoin stands at 19.8 million tokens, with 2.8 million BTC held on exchanges. Notably, 200,000 BTC have exited exchanges in recent months, indicating a trend of investors moving assets to cold storage. This dwindling exchange balance could limit immediate liquidity, further impacting market dynamics. Technical Outlook Bitcoin is trading in a bearish zone, currently down 0.49% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 42. The recent market sell-off liquidated approximately $1.4 billion, exacerbating downward pressure. Key Levels to Watch Support Level: If selling persists, CRYPTOCAP:BTC could dip to $85,000, a key support level aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Resistance Level: For a bullish reversal, CRYPTOCAP:BTC must break through $101,000, a pivotal psychological and technical barrier that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Outlook and Implications The ongoing selling by LTHs reflects a strategic shift, possibly influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and profit-taking at current levels. Meanwhile, STHs’ buying activity suggests continued confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. However, the imbalance between supply and demand could lead to further short-term price volatility. Investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels and market activity from these cohorts to anticipate the next significant price movement. Conclusion Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains uncertain amid significant selling pressure from LTHs. While oversold technical indicators hint at a potential rebound, the lack of sufficient demand from STHs raises concerns about sustained recovery. The next few days will be critical for Bitcoin as it navigates these pivotal price levels. Will CRYPTOCAP:BTC bounce back like it has in past corrections, or is a deeper dip on the horizon? Only time will tell. Stay tuned for further updates!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429. However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.' While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes. In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded): 1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x 2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x 3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x 4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x 5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors: 624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease) 122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease) 22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease) 7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease) The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916. There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around: On the bullish side: It's 'different' this cycle A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs Currency debasement means more demand for BTC The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow The halving pattern is still playing out Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest On the bearish side: The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction) A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now. There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021 The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble Discussion I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides. On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April. While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher. On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern. It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t . However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar. In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin. This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve). 2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs. Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k. There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals. Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy. Conclusion In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here. There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently. As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by pasojov
1
BITCOIN | IF DECLINE GOES DEEPERThe possibility of a deepening decline appears serious, and it’s essential to stay prepared for such scenarios. I have identified my hedge short levels at the red boxes, which I consider key areas for managing risk and capitalizing on potential downward movements. Monitoring these levels closely will be crucial to adapting effectively to the market's evolving structure. I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
Long
by XU99