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Bitcoin Halving Thesis - Cycle Top and Bottom w/ TargetsI’ve been tracking the Bitcoin Halving Cycle for many many moons, trying to analyze as many patterns as possible to give me confluence in a signal for this cycle’s top and bottom. There’s five that I will focus on in this thread: 1. Trough to Peak 2. Halving to Peak 3. Peak to Trough 4. Trough to Trough 5. Fibonacci Extension Note, I do not take the 1st Halving in 2012 into much consideration as it was a very immature market with a novel technology. There was obviously no market data prior to this Halving to base any TA on, so that’s another kicker. Technical Analysis is a self-fulfilling prophecy after-all. Evidence in this bias comes from the past two cycles being nearly identical in all of the aforementioned. The Halving Cycles I will focus on start in Jan. 2015 with the Trough to Peak being 1,068 Days. We then have a 363D Peak to Trough from Dec. 2017 to Dec. 2018. It is similarly 1,059D from Trough to Peak in Nov. 2021 (-9D difference), and 378 Days back down from the Peak to Trough (+15D difference). If we continue this Trough to Peak pattern of -9D difference adding 1,050D, that will put this Cycle Peak ~Oct. 6, 2025. The Peak to Trough pattern of +15D with 393D would put our Cycle Bottom ~Nov. 3, 2026. Now let’s look at the Halving to Peak. The last two Halving Cycles follow similar patterns again, while the first Halving does not. 2016-17 is 526D Halving to Peak, and 2020-21 is 546D, with a difference of +20D. For the upcoming 2024 Halving ~Apr 22, 566D puts this Cycle’s Peak at Nov. 9, 2025. This correlates with the Trough to Peak Oct. 6 date to give us a 1 month range. Next we’ll see the past two Halving Cycles Trough to Trough are highly correlated once again, whereas 2012 is not. 2015-18 it was 1,430D T to T. 2018-22 more closely resembles this cycle with 1,438D and a difference of 8D. Following this pattern for 2022-26, adding on 1,446D would confirm the cycle’s bottom ~Nov. 6, 2026. That’s a 3D difference that we discovered in the Peak to Trough pattern. The last thing I will cover is the Q3 2025 Price Target that I have found using the Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension. Using this Fib from the 2015 low to 2017 high gives us a 3.618 level that is almost spot on with the 2021 Cycle Peak! Using this again from the 2018 low to 2021 high, it would put the 3.618 ~240k. I’m not a fan of round numbers and would say $235k would be a bit more conservative to price the top. I’ll be following this cycle very closely to see how this plays out and will share my analysis if the market detours from my thesis. The point of this analysis is not to pick an exact date or price to sell, but to give a general range so you can be well prepared for when it happens. I’ll most likely be selling CRYPTOCAP:BTC around the $200k range or Aug. - Sept 2025, whatever comes first, just to get ahead of the market. I would rather miss out on those last gains on the way up than try to frantically exit on the way down. If you enjoyed this analysis make sure to give me a follow and turn on notifications so that you can stay up to date with it. Also Bookmark this thread so that you can come back for future reference Happy Trading! ~FIN~ JK 👑
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
6
It's a Bird? It's a Plane? Nah, it's a Bat.This daily chart has me packing up my things and getting ready to run for the hills! If we do break down from here and start to form some sort of Bat harmonic formation then I will be asking the age old question, "How low can we go?" See my previous post below, which I think may end up reinforcing this on the weekly chart. Could I be wrong? Of course, I mean, I'm a werewolf...I spend most of my time chasing my own tail! Bark at me! Owhooooo!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Akamer-the-Werewolf
1
BTC Bullish Rally Before the Halving Event ☀️🚀Cryptocurrencies rebounded over the past 24 hours, after a week of profit taking and ahead of Friday’s options expiries. Almost $9 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire then, an event likely to trigger price volatility, Deribit data shows. The price of Bitcoin rallied 5.5 percent to $70,862 over the past 24 hours, trading 4 percent below its all-time high. Bitcoin’s halving in less than a month’s time is another supporting factor. Read more about its halving here. “#Bitcoin has just caught traders off guard (as usual) with a huge rebound ascension to $70K. Why? Key #Bitcoin stakeholders had one of their single largest accumulation days in years. 51,959 collective #Bitcoin were accumulated . This translates to 0.263% of the entire currently available supply being accumulated in one day. As we close in on the final three weeks of the #halving on April 19th, it would be unsurprising to see these wallets continue to grow, resulting in a positive impact on #crypto-wide market caps,” the crypto intelligence firm Santiment said. The crypto universe is also boosted by comments from BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets Robert Mitchnick. A modest concentration of Bitcoin in a portfolio can turn it into a diversifier, as the crypto coin generally is uncorrelated to other assets and has different fundamental drivers, CNBC quotes him as saying. A bullish sun, indicating upside potential, shines over the global crypto market and Bitcoin in the next 24 hours and coming week, ATTMO shows. Over a one-week horizon, the largest cryptocurrency should continue to profit from the bullish trading conditions. Follow us for more crypto weather and news reports!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ATTMO
BTC what if ..? BTC / USDT Current BTC price action is reminding me of what happened in 2017 cycle in which price made a breakout then returned below previous ATH for few days before massive bullrun at that time I see price will make some range below 69k then breakout higher Why i say that : The PA is similar to 2017 - the high funding cooled off - fear/greed index dropped a bit - major altcoins are setting on their weekly support This is the highest potential scenario for me right now .. Things can change fast but until now i dont see that.. DYOR
by Babenski
12
BTC 100k is not enough- Believe it or not. - There's nothing at 100k. - the trend would not be respected. - i was here when BTC broke 10k$ for the first time. - At that time, most traders called for a top and scared. - BTC didn't care and went straight up to 20k$.. - i see only 3 Scenarios. 1 : Orange : BTC retrace soon, then it will delay time, then ATH will be 220-240k. 2 : Green : BTC goes to 150k, retrace to 161.8, and make a second Top around 220-240k. 3 : Red : BTC go straight to 150k$ then dip and struggle. ( i doubt on that way ). - As always, this only my humble prediction and opinion. - Everything can happens with FA. ( war, crises, stop internet.) - More it will take time, more up BTC will go. Stay S4fe Happy Tr4Ding !
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by thecryer
5
The Crypto Cycle Indicator is BROKEN!Last summer, as BTC tapped what I thought might be it's pre-halving high of about $31,000 USD, I used www.tradingview.com indicator to point out that we had tapped the trendline that generally indicates we are at or near a price high for the mini bull cycle inbetween halvings. It was right... for about 3 months. Then the entire crypto space exploded higher, followed soon by stocks and treasuries. My theory is a part of that was large purchases of Bitcoin were being made for the ETFs that went live in January. So, time for a change of plans to figure out where tops and bottoms might be. One thought is Plan B's "Stock to flow" model, which skewed overly bullish last cycle, maybe it skews conservative this time? Always hard to say. I have one interesting chart to share here. Just simply putting BTC on a logarithmic scale and drawing a channel to hit the bottoms from 2018, 2020 and 2022, this meant I had to clip the highs from 2017 and cross the top of the next lowest weekly candles, but it hit the spring high of 2021, but the high in November was below the upper trend line. Now, this is more bullish than the stock 2 flow model, but hey, this cycle seems different with setting new all time highs BEFORE the halving, and the supply being even more restricted now due to the massive buying to put in these ETFs. F it, let's go. April 2025 target is $330k.
CRYPTOCAP:USDC
by dieseldub
BTC → Bitcoin Back to $38,000? Or to $138,000? Let's Answer.Bitcoin has deviated from its historical price action tendencies and reached new all-time highs before the bitcoin halving and without touching lifetime support! Does that mean we will continue to go up? How do we trade this? 🤔 Bitcoin is clearly at a crucial moment in the market, breaking beyond the previous $69,500 all-time high and reaching just shy of $74,000. Without surprise, Bitcoin is facing some resistance in this area as the bulls take some profits and the bears lurk waiting for a solid sell candle. At this stage, we do not have a sell candle to justify a short. My previous analysis called for a 30% pullback or more between the $45,000 and $55,000 area if the proper sell candle and confirmation bars showed themselves, we never received those candles. I am still in the same mindset; be on the lookout for a major pullback, but wait for the proper sell and confirmation to short. Long scalp on the smaller timeframes, 5m or 15m until the price action no longer justifies it. I believe the more lucrative opportunity will show itself after a major pullback occurs to the $38,000 price area. This area provided great trade volume and has acted as support and resistance several times in the past few years. It's reasonable to believe this will be a solid floor for Bitcoin. The hard lifetime support floor is approximately $25,000 leading into 2025, but I think it's unlikely at this point to see such a pullback. $38,000 is the more likely support level as that should coincide with the Weekly 200EMA later this year/early next year if the price is to fall that far. We also have to consider that the price may not fall below the Weekly 30EMA or come near the Weekly 200EMA and should be looking for a buy signal at any of these support zones. For now, I would long trade the smaller timeframes and be on the lookout for the sell signal candle on the weekly chart. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: $42,000 🟥 Stop Loss: $25,000 ✅ Take Profit #1: $69,000 ✅ Take Profit #2: $110,000 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:4 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. At previous all-time high resistance, not ideal long entry on Daily or Weekly timeframe. 2. Wait for sell signal on Daily or Weekly timeframes to enter a short. 3. Target Weekly 30EMA, 200EMA, and previous high volume area for support. 4. Long at $42,000 after a strong buy signal off of the high volume area, target 1:4 Risk/Reward and take half of the position off the table at $69,000, move stop loss up to entry and swing the latter half of the position to the $110,000 area. 5. RSI is overbought near 85.00 which supports a pullback and hesitation to long. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 It's reasonable to take half profits at the first resistance target in a long trade, or the first support target in a short trade. Using a 1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio for your first target, you can move your stop loss up to your entry price, locking in profits. This allows you to watch the rest of the trade execute without worry of losing money. This helps improve trading psychology and the equity in your account. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TraderEngineering
6
BTC/USDT Update BTC/USDT: The price of Bitcoin is currently attempting to break out of the trendline resistance for the 5th time. I believe that this time it will successfully break out and experience a significant upward movement. In the event of a fakeout, there is an alternative scenario where the price may retreat towards the 60-59k range before bouncing back up to 72k. Overall, my sentiment is bullish, and I anticipate the price reaching 72k in the coming days. Please note that the above is not financial advice. Kindly conduct your research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions.
Long
by Crypto-By-Ghazi
Bitcoin Surges Towards All-Time High: Halving Hype Sparks Frenzy With Bitcoin reclaiming the $70,000 milestone and the halving looming, the cryptocurrency market is abuzz with anticipation and speculation. In a dramatic turn of events, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) has stormed back above the $70,000 mark, reigniting investor excitement and propelling the cryptocurrency towards its all-time high. With the highly anticipated halving just 25 days away, Bitcoin's resurgence signals a renewed fervor in the crypto community, despite recent setbacks and volatility. After a week-long downturn, Bitcoin's price has surged by 9% in the last 24 hours, reaching $70,561 according to CoinGecko. This resurgence comes on the heels of a tumultuous period marked by ETF outflows, exchange flash crashes, and inflation concerns, underscoring the resilience of the digital asset amidst market turbulence. The impending Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) halving, an event occurring approximately every four years, has captured the imagination of speculators, who anticipate a potential doubling or quadrupling of Bitcoin's price post-halving. This optimism has been fueled by the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), signaling growing institutional interest and legitimizing Bitcoin as a mainstream asset. John O’Loghlen, Coinbase Asia-Pacific Managing Director, attributes Bitcoin's recent surge to the influx of new demand catalyzed by the spot ETFs announcement. However, amidst the euphoria, experts caution against excessive exuberance, urging investors to exercise prudence and consider the historical performance of Bitcoin post-halving. "While the sentiment around Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) remains bullish, experts advise caution, especially if looking at past halving performance," warns O’Loghlen. Indeed, past performance is not always indicative of future success, and investors must remain vigilant amidst market speculation. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's ascent has sparked a broader rally in the crypto market, with Ethereum surging nearly 9% to $3,630 and Solana climbing almost 13% to over $194. This synchronized uptrend underscores the growing optimism and momentum within the cryptocurrency ecosystem, as investors flock to capitalize on the potential upside. As Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) inches closer to its all-time high, the stage is set for a pivotal moment in the cryptocurrency market. With the halving looming on the horizon and institutional adoption on the rise, the future of Bitcoin hangs in the balance, poised on the brink of unprecedented growth or a potential correction. In this dynamic landscape, one thing is certain: the journey towards Bitcoin's all-time high is laden with excitement, uncertainty, and opportunity, beckoning both seasoned investors and newcomers alike to join the thrilling ride of digital asset investment.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
Bitcoin's Halving Event: Impact, Expectations, and PreparationsAs the cryptocurrency community eagerly anticipates Bitcoin's upcoming halving event, there's heightened discussion regarding the digital asset's potential trajectory. With Bitcoin preparing for its third halving, traders and investors are deliberating on the opportune moment to engage with the market. The halving, an inherent feature of Bitcoin's protocol, serves to reduce the rate at which new coins are introduced, effectively managing inflation and preserving Bitcoin's scarcity. Historically, the halving has been a pivotal event in the cryptocurrency market, often accompanied by increased volatility and speculation. Leading up to the halving, market sentiment typically turns bullish, with traders anticipating potential price surges as Bitcoin's issuance rate diminishes. Nonetheless, caution is advised, as some investors remain apprehensive about a potential post-halving market correction. Recent bullish momentum has propelled Bitcoin to new highs, breaching significant resistance levels and impacting altcoin markets as well. Currently hovering around the $64,000 mark, Bitcoin experienced a retracement from its recent peak near $73,680. However, many view this pullback as an opportunity to enter the market ahead of potential post-halving price increases, citing historical precedents. While economists speculate on Bitcoin's future potential, forecasting values upwards of $100,000 and beyond, a balanced perspective is crucial. Market dynamics are influenced by a myriad of factors beyond the halving event, including macroeconomic trends and regulatory shifts. Investors are urged to approach their decisions judiciously and adhere to sound trading strategies aligned with their financial objectives and risk tolerance. While the halving event may present enticing opportunities, it's imperative to consider the broader landscape of the cryptocurrency market and exercise prudent decision-making accordingly.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
Bitcoin Bullish Fractal Bars Pattern To $100k, $155k, and $250kHere's a slightly different chart showing how Bitcoin will likelyt proceed quickly to $100k once we break the $70K triple-top resistance, which I see happening quickly. With Fresh NASDAQ:IBIT money continuing to flow into Bitcoin and the markets, this market has plenty of rocket fuel on the sidelines to send this rocket into the stratosphere. Not only does the previous cycle fractal pattern show how Bitcoin can hit these levels this cycle, it also overlays perfect (with minor adjusting) with the Fibonacci projections that correctly forecasted the prior cycle high at the Fib 3.618 level. The 3.168 number for this cycle would be $210k but I think it's reasonable to overshoot that this time with all the money on the sidelines waiting to come in. We're already starting to see and hear rumors of Tesla buying, Qatar and potentially other sovereign wealth funds, even China. How high will Bitcoin go this cycle? Here's a good roadmap for now. But new information = new dedision. I'll keep you updated. What do you think?
Long
by BrettFogle
BTC - Bullish 🐂Vibes R Back 🌞 24H & 7D Upside PotentialOptimism about upcoming rate cuts by leading central banks as of June, may however continue to support the rebound witnessed over the weekend, with Bitcoin rising 4.9 percent to $67.251 over the past 24 hours. “It appears that Bitcoin is trying to break higher, and our upside targets of $83,000 and $102,000 could slowly be at play,” the Head of Research at 10x Research, Markus Thielen, said in his daily brief. The CEO of ARK Invest, Cathie Wood, remains ultra-bullish as for Bitcoin’s price development. “Since the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave institutions the green light to Bitcoin, if they were to allocate more than 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin as we think they will – that would add $2.3M to the $1.5M price target we initially gave,” she is quoted as saying by CryptoSlate during a Bitcoin Investor Day held in New York on Friday. A bullish sun shines over the global crypto market in the next 24 hours, indicating upside potential for all coins covered by ATTMO, Bitcoin included. Over the coming week, the trading conditions will be mixed with most coins continuing to profit from the bullish outlook. Follow us for more crypto news and weather reports!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ATTMO
BITCOIN BEFORE HALVINGTrading with algo can be measured by 3 waves, you only see it here on my ideas, But sometimes I dont recommend it if youre a scalper. The 4th algo would be 96k or above. This idea base on algorithm. The Bitcoin As of now are following the algo because it is being controlled by biggest institutions like Blackrock and other entities, Algo doesnt look on indicators like volumes, base on volume right now are being injected on algo so that institutions buying cannot seen like the volumes, we see less volume but price can go higher. IF youre an indicator type traders this is not for you.. THis is not a financial advice, Trade it or own it. FOllow for more. THanks to all whose following me since day 1. now were growing to almost 700 followers, If youre asking why I dont have any public groups, Im not interested on it. IM sharing knowledge for some reasons, sharing goodstuff for free is like giving a bread to others! No Im not interested on Other peoples opinion. I dont even follow any of them, I stick to my ideas. I repeat and repeat until it does happen. Youre here to make money, youre here to have knowledge on trading. learn it from my ideas, if this idea has something on you take it. or just leave it.
CME:BTC1!Long
by D1GITALTRADES
📈Checkout the dominance, AltSeason is close!📉CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D BINANCE:BTCUSDT There are two scenarios for the start of a bullish rally in altcoins. Scenario 1: If Dominance fails to break above the 53.35 level, it will move towards the bottom of the pitch-fork. In that case, we will have a short but relatively intense and exciting rally in altcoins. Second scenario: With Dominance stabilizing above the level of 53.35, the rise of Dominance to the level of 57 will cause Bitcoin to continue its rally and test the level of $70,000 and above. Further, by placing Dominance between two blue resistances and even falling to the bottom of the pitch-fork at the same time as Bitcoin stabilizes at around 65-70 thousand dollars, it can involve altcoins in a longer-term rally than the first scenario. Note: This week, after a short period of time when I had little analytical activity on this page, I plan to introduce and analyze my suggested altcoins in this rising market. We will have fun plans soon. ✌💥If you are satisfied with my analytical content, please share my ideas💥✌ ✍🐱‍👤Otherwise, make sure you leave comments and let me know what you think.🐱‍👤✍ 🍾Thank you for your support. I hope you will gain profit by following my analyses.🍾
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by CrazyS