Bear cycle begins if this happens. Not the time of buy the dipI have been thinking this Bitcoin cycle has already peaked.
I am using a weekly chart here because I can fit in three BTC cycles on the screen, but it is more clear if you look at it in the Daily chart.
I am analysing the chart by using VWAP - Volume weighted moving average.
When you place VWAP (orange line) at the peak of each cycle you can see the pattern as below:
1) The price goes down steadily from the suspected peak price but eventually breaks above the descending trendline. (please check it in daily chart).
2) The price moves and closes above the descending trendine but the upside move is limited and price gets trapped and consolidate in the sideway for a few months (blue rectangular box).
3) VWAP acts as resistance line and eventually resumes the downside move.
4) By then, all momentum indicators are deep in the bear zone, and the bear cycle begins.
When I look at weekly and daily chart, I can see the same scenario is unfolding now.
I don't think the price will go straight down from here. There are good small swing trade opportunities in lower time frame for the next few months. However, if the price struggles to move above VWAP, the end of cycle scenario becomes more and more convincing.
It is just my humble opinion based on one style of analysis.
Final note:
Bitcoin price action has been very similar to NASDAQ100 and US500, and these charts are looking very dire. If US indices go down in the the next few months, Bitcoin will go with them.
