Bitcoin's November Low: Recession Fears, and Volatility
Bitcoin's recent slump, dipping below $80,000 to levels not seen since November, has sent ripples through the cryptocurrency market. This downturn, fueled by heightened recession fears and a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, has triggered a wave of analysis and speculation. While some experts predict further corrections, others point to potential catalysts for a resurgence. Amidst this uncertainty, South Korea's ambitious push for a Bitcoin reserve and the burgeoning $BTCBULL presale add intriguing layers to the narrative.
The primary driver behind Bitcoin's decline is the growing apprehension of a global economic recession. Persistent inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions have created a climate of uncertainty, prompting investors to seek refuge in traditional safe-haven assets. This risk-off sentiment has weighed heavily on Bitcoin, a notoriously volatile asset class.
Adding to the complexity of the situation is the ongoing tension between Bitcoin and central banks. As one expert noted, Bitcoin is "playing chicken with central banks" as the dollar experiences fluctuations. This dynamic underscores the fundamental debate surrounding Bitcoin's role as a potential hedge against traditional financial systems. The recent volatility surge following Donald Trump's comments on a Bitcoin reserve and the options expiry further exemplifies this tense relationship.
Despite the bearish sentiment, there are glimmers of optimism. South Korea's ambitious plan to establish a Bitcoin reserve has captured the attention of the crypto community. This move, if realized, could signal a significant shift in the adoption of Bitcoin by institutional players and governments. The implications are far-reaching, potentially bolstering Bitcoin's legitimacy as a store of value and a strategic asset.
The $BTCBULL presale, emerging amidst this volatile landscape, presents an interesting case study. In a market characterized by uncertainty, presales offer investors the opportunity to gain early access to potentially high-growth projects. However, they also carry inherent risks, and their success depends on a multitude of factors, including market conditions, project fundamentals, and community support. The $BTCBULL presale’s ability to attract investors during this period of market downturn will be a good indicator of overall market sentiment. Should it succeed, it may indicate that despite the general bearishness, there is still strong interest in projects that are perceived to be innovative, or to offer a unique value proposition.
The current trading range of $78,000 to $82,000 reflects the market's indecision. Bullish momentum has clearly faded, leaving traders grappling with the implications of shifting macroeconomic conditions. The volatility witnessed in recent days underscores the need for caution and strategic decision-making.
Furthermore, the impact of regulatory developments cannot be ignored. Governments worldwide are grappling with the challenge of regulating cryptocurrencies, and any significant regulatory changes could have a profound impact on Bitcoin's price and adoption. The ongoing debate surrounding stablecoins, DeFi, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) adds another layer of complexity to the market.
In conclusion, Bitcoin's recent fall to November lows is a reflection of the broader economic uncertainties and the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market. While recession fears and bearish predictions dominate the headlines, South Korea's ambitious Bitcoin reserve plan and the $BTCBULL presale offer glimpses of potential future growth. Investors must navigate this complex landscape with caution, carefully considering the interplay of macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, and market sentiment. The current volatility serves as a reminder of the need for thorough research and a long-term perspective. Whether Bitcoin retests lower support levels or stages a comeback remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the cryptocurrency market will continue to be a dynamic and unpredictable space.
Bitcoinprediction
BTC - are we about to bounce?Hi All,
So just a thought and observation - let me know what you guys think. We have had 4 bounces
off this bottom green support trend line since 2023. Each time BTC shoots back up for a solid run.
Is the end near?
Am I hoping for an end to this blood bath correction which just dipped into the $79K range. Is there more to come, the chart says we should be done - or damn near the end.
Let me know your thoughts!!
Bitcoin - Will history repeat itself?In this analysis, we are observing the potential repetition of market history by comparing the current Bitcoin price action to the previous bullrun cycle. By utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels, historical patterns, and the current macroeconomic landscape, we can formulate a hypothesis that the market might follow a similar trajectory if bearish sentiment prevails.
Historical Comparison
During the last bullrun, Bitcoin experienced significant price appreciation before eventually reaching a new all-time high (ATH). However, one key observation from the previous cycle is that before Bitcoin reached its ATH, the price retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level multiple times. This level acted as a critical support zone, where the price found demand before making the next leg upward.
Currently, we are seeing a similar pattern unfolding. Bitcoin has recently experienced a parabolic rise, reminiscent of the previous bull cycle. As the market is showing early signs of exhaustion, the possibility of a deeper retracement towards the 0.618 Fibonacci level (around $50,000) is becoming increasingly plausible. If history repeats itself, this level could act as a springboard for the next significant price increase.
Last bullrun we had a 77% drop, and from the current ATH its only a 55% drop to the fib level:
Bearish Sentiment and Market Dynamics
Despite positive news emerging globally, such as the USA announcing its Bitcoin reserves and other adoption-related headlines, the market has reacted negatively, which is a characteristic of bearish sentiment. This kind of price action aligns with what we saw in previous cycles, where good news failed to provide upward momentum as the market was already in a distribution phase.
The fact that Bitcoin has failed to sustain gains even amid positive news further reinforces the likelihood of a deeper retracement. The market is driven by liquidity cycles, and the large players may still be in the process of shaking out retail investors before the next parabolic move.
Key Fibonacci Levels to Watch
0.618 Level (~$51,500): Historically tested in the last cycle before the final leg up.
0.65 Level (~$48,500): Another confluence zone that could provide significant support.
0.786 Level (~$36,000 - $40,000): If the market becomes extremely bearish, this level could act as the final capitulation zone before the next macro bullrun.
Psychological and Macro Factors
Additionally, the broader macroeconomic environment plays a crucial role in this scenario. With ongoing geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and central banks' monetary policies, investors are more risk-averse, which could further contribute to the bearish price action.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong correlation to traditional markets, especially during uncertain times. If the macroeconomic environment remains unstable, Bitcoin could follow traditional markets into a corrective phase before making a recovery.
Daily Chart Imbalance Zones
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently trading between two key imbalance zones. These zones represent areas of liquidity where the market could either find support or break down further. The current price action suggests that if Bitcoin holds the imbalance zones as support, the market structure will still be intact, leaving the possibility for a continuation of the upward trend.
However, if these imbalance zones fail to hold, it would signal a bearish continuation pattern. In this case, the probability of Bitcoin testing the $50,000 level as the next major support becomes highly likely. Traders should closely monitor these zones, as they will play a pivotal role in determining the market’s next major move.
Conclusion
While no analysis can predict the future with certainty, the confluence of technical, historical, and macroeconomic factors suggests that Bitcoin might follow a similar pattern as the previous bullrun. A retracement to the 0.618 Fibonacci level around $50,000 is highly plausible before a new ATH is achieved. However, if bearish sentiment continues to dominate, we could see lower levels before the market finds its true bottom.
The current price action, coupled with negative market reactions to positive news, is an indication that larger players might still be accumulating before the next leg up. Traders and investors should remain cautious, monitor key Fibonacci levels, and be prepared for heightened volatility in the coming months.
Only time will tell if history will indeed repeat itself, but the current evidence suggests that the market might be following a familiar path once again.
Powell’s Speech & Bitcoin’s Decline: Is More Downside Ahead? Today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak, and traders should brace for potential market volatility! Given the recent economic data , his tone is likely to be balanced but leaning hawkish .
Why a More Hawkish Powell?
1- Strong Job Market :
Unemployment Rate : 4.1% (Still low)
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) : 151K (Decent, but lower than before)
Average Hourly Earnings : 0.3% (Steady wage growth)
This suggests that the labor market remains resilient, which might discourage the Fed from cutting rates too soon.
2- Inflation Still a Concern :
Wage growth and inflationary pressures persist, which means Powell may emphasize keeping rates steady longer to combat inflation.
3- Markets Are Too Optimistic on Rate Cuts :
Investors are heavily betting on rate cuts in 2024, but Powell may push back against these expectations to prevent excessive risk-taking.
Powell will likely maintain a cautious yet hawkish stance to manage expectations. Big price swings are expected across forex, crypto, and commodities—so stay alert! (Of course, this is just a personal analysis).
In addition to Donald Trump , Signs Executive Order to Create Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
Of course, today, we didn't see any strange movement in Bitcoin, and probably, the proverb " buy the rumor, sell the news " was fulfilled.
----------------------------------------------------------
Now let's take a look at the Bitcoin chart on the 1-hour time frame and also take help from technical analysis tools .
Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is in a Heavy Resistance zone($93,300_$89,250) and has started to decline from Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
From a Classic Technical Analysis , Bitcoin appears to move in a Symmetrical Triangle .
According to Elliott Wave theory , Bitcoin has completed the Double Three Correction(WXY) , and we should wait for the next bearish wave .
I expect Bitcoin to attack 200_SMA(Daily) again after breaking the lower line of the Symmetrical Triangle .
Note: Bitcoin is likely to pump more if the symmetrical triangle's upper line breaks.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BTCUSDT Analysis – From Simple to Complex!BTCUSDT Analysis – From Simple to Complex! 🚀
“Let’s break it down step by step. At first glance, the first red line looks like an obvious resistance point. But here’s the deal—it’s too obvious. And in trading, when something is too obvious, it often doesn’t work as expected.”
Basic Structure:
📌 Red Line = Clear Resistance – Everyone sees it, but that also means it could be a trap.
Now, Let’s Get Deeper...
🔍 Volume Analysis Changes the Game:
Weekend Moves with Low Volume = High Manipulation Risk – Crypto loves to fake out retail traders in these conditions.
Look at the Black Line Inside the Blue Area – This is where things get interesting. This level could be the true battleground between buyers and sellers.
CDV & Volume Profile Will Guide Us – We need confirmation from buying and selling volumes before making any major moves.
Final Thoughts:
“At first, the chart looks simple, but once you add volume analysis, things get more complex. Don’t trade based on what looks obvious—trade based on what’s actually happening in the order flow. I’ll explain the next step in my following post!”
📉 Stay smart, stay ahead! 🔥
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
I have a long list of my proven technique below:
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Bitcoin: 74k-72k Line in the Sand!Hello everyone!
First of all happy international women's day to all the ladies out there! (Don't forget to get flowers guys)
Bitcoin is approaching a key area
with extremely strong support, but several indicators also mark the line in the sand for the current bullmarket for Bitcoin.
Weekly
- Fib: 38.2% of the complete trend retracement (15.5k - 109.4k)
- MA: 50 SMA (75.4k)
- S/R: 70k-74k Strong supply/resistance area
A consistent pattern emerges on Bitcoin's chart: breaks below the 50-week SMA (black line) after an all-time high (red arrows) have reliably indicated bear markets. Similarly, reclaiming the 50-week SMA (green arrows) has historically confirmed bull runs toward fresh all-time highs.
3D
- Fib: 61.8% of the retracement from previous range low to current high (49.5k - 109.4k)
- MA: 100 SMA (77k)
On the 3-day chart, the 100 SMA has acted as strong support during this bull market. Bitcoin revisited the moving average on 5 individual occasions and bounced off it. Despite briefly closing below it twice, BTC quickly reclaimed it with the following candle.
A potential correction to $70,000 is possible for Bitcoin. To maintain the bull market, it's crucial for bulls to find support there and drive the price back above the 3-day 100 SMA and the weekly 50 SMA.
Happy trading!
Pat
#BTC/USDT This level is important...BTC is currently trading below the 50 EMA, 100 EMA, and 200 EMA in the 4-hour chart.
This is not ideal for the price action, and $93k has now become a strong resistance level.
The pattern appears to be setting up for a breakout soon. While it won’t be easy, it’s entirely possible we break to the upside.
If there’s a break below, we could see a dip to $73k.
Do I think the bear market has already started? Definitely not!
I’ll keep you updated, so follow and share this chart with your friends.
Thank you!
#PEACE
Bitcoin's Never Look Back AnalysisWhat's Bitcoin's never look back number?
What's that level that you want to stack your sats and always be in profit?
This analysis observes a distinct repeating pattern over everything BTC cycle that if continues to occur could be very effective in informing your investment position.
Bitcoin’s Roller Coaster Ride: More Volatility Until March 7?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) has been acting like a Roller Coaster in the last few days, and one of the main reasons for the high momentum movements is Donald Trump's speech . Generally, this market behavior detriments investors and trades. Such movements may continue until March 7 ( Let us recall that Donald Trump will meet with industry representatives at the “first crypto summit” at the White House on March 7 ).
So please pay more attention to Capital Management these days .
It seems that Bitcoin's Main Support is 200_SMA(Daily) , which failed to break yesterday and started to increase again. Now, Bitcoin has succeeded in breaking the Resistance zone($87,100-$85,800) .
According to Elliott wave theory , Bitcoin seems to be completing a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) .
I expect Bitcoin to once again attack the Heavy Resistance zone($93,300_$89,250) and rise to at least the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Do you think Bitcoin is still Correcting or ready for another major up move?
Note: If Bitcoin falls below $85,000, the possibility of Bitcoin increasing again will decrease.
Note: If Bitcoin can break the Heavy Resistance zone($93,300_$89,250) and the Resistance lines, we can even hope for a new All-Time High(ATH).
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Bitcoin: Navigating Market Volatility and Future PredictionsBitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, continues to dominate headlines with its characteristic volatility and the ever-present speculation surrounding its future trajectory. Recent market activity and expert analyses paint a complex picture, one where potential for significant growth is tempered by inherent risks and external economic factors. Several key themes emerge from recent news and analysis, offering a glimpse into the current state of Bitcoin and the factors influencing its price.
The Potential for a US Crypto Reserve and its Impact
One of the most significant potential catalysts for Bitcoin's price is the possibility of the United States government establishing a strategic cryptocurrency reserve. This concept, championed by figures like MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor and gaining traction within political circles, could have a profound impact on the market.
Saylor has publicly suggested that the US government should acquire one million Bitcoin for its strategic reserves. He argues that this would legitimize Bitcoin as "digital property" and instill greater confidence in the cryptocurrency. Saylor pointed out that MicroStrategy already holds approximately 500,000 Bitcoins, which accounts for about 2.4% of the worldwide supply. He also suggested that the government could finance such a large crypto reserve through a deliberate, multi-year timeline, referencing a "six-month process" set out by a recent executive order.
There is research that supports this view, estimating that a US crypto reserve could boost Bitcoin's market capitalization by roughly 25%, or approximately $460 billion. This potential surge is attributed to Bitcoin's limited liquid supply, meaning that large inflows from a government purchase could trigger upward price shocks. Furthermore, such a move could incentivize institutional investors and other countries' governments to allocate funds to Bitcoin, creating a positive feedback loop.
While the idea has gained traction, particularly with endorsements from figures like Donald Trump, the path to establishing a national crypto reserve is not without its hurdles. Confusing messaging, legal challenges, and uneven progress across different states contribute to market uncertainty. The market currently views the probability of a national Bitcoin stockpile as relatively low due to challenges like confusing messaging and legal hurdles.
Market Sentiment and Price Predictions
Despite the potential for significant growth, market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin remains cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a measure of overall market sentiment, consistently hovers in "Extreme Fear," even amidst price spikes. This suggests that while investors are drawn to potential gains, underlying anxieties about volatility and external economic pressures persist.
Predicting Bitcoin's price with certainty remains an elusive task, but analysts offer varying perspectives. Master Ananda, for example, believes that Bitcoin's price bottom is in, following a recent dip below $80,000.
However, other analysts urge caution. The recent rebound of Bitcoin to over $90,000 was short-lived, with the price retreating due to concerns about a potential recession, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, and uncertainty surrounding the US crypto reserve. This highlights the sensitivity of Bitcoin to broader economic factors and geopolitical events.
Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics
Technical analysis of Bitcoin's price charts provides further insights into its current state. The recent formation of back-to-back weekly "hammer candles," a pattern seen only a handful of times in Bitcoin's history, suggests potential bullish momentum. However, the failure of a recent price rebound to break through key resistance levels indicates that the path to higher prices may not be straightforward.
The relationship between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, particularly the S&P 500, also plays a crucial role. Historically, Bitcoin has struggled during periods of high volatility in the S&P 500, as measured by the VIX. This correlation suggests that broader economic anxieties can negatively impact Bitcoin's price.
The Influence of Global Liquidity and External Factors
Beyond specific events and technical indicators, broader macroeconomic factors influence Bitcoin's trajectory. Analyses suggest that global liquidity trends favor crypto and risk assets. The global money supply is expected to reach new all-time highs, potentially boosting Bitcoin's price. A dropping US Dollar Index (DXY) also signals a shift in favor of crypto.
The upcoming US Crypto Summit, organized by the Trump administration, is anticipated to be a key event that could provide clarity and potentially influence Bitcoin's future trajectory. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the summit's outcomes, as they could provide crucial insights into the regulatory landscape and government's stance on cryptocurrencies.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's current landscape is a complex interplay of potential catalysts, market sentiment, technical indicators, and macroeconomic forces. The possibility of a US crypto reserve offers a significant upside potential, but market anxieties and external economic pressures create a degree of uncertainty. While some analysts predict a rapid surge in price, others emphasize the need for caution and highlight the importance of monitoring broader market dynamics. As Bitcoin continues to evolve, its price will likely remain sensitive to both internal developments within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and external factors shaping the global economy. The upcoming US Crypto Summit and future policy decisions will be critical in shaping Bitcoin's future direction.
Bitcoin Halving to ATH data -2 year UPDATE-conflicting results
I havw Noticed in recent days, people "Boosting" A chart I posted in Dec 2022, called "BITCOIN Halving cycles and Pump %"
So I thought I would update it and see where we are now.
In it, i said 2024 would be a Good year.
Well, we got that in many ways and not surprisingly but we have seen some things that point towards this being a VERY different cycle and I will explain some of them here
So, as the title suggests, Lets Look at the Halving to ATH - For a start, I need to explain the issue we have with 2021 - 2 major ATH and a divided community about which one was the REAL ATH and so on. There are plenty of reasons to accept the NOV 2021 ATH as the real one, mostly because it was the highest price !
It was also a similar day count from previous Halving to ATH and so I am working with that.
The Current Bitcoin ATH was 280 days after Halving. A Lot Less than any previous day count from Halving to ATH..
We are however, still under the 365 count we had in 2012 Halving to ATH - So...for me, the possibility that we have NOT seen Cycle ATH still exists for many reasons..
And yet, at the same time, I am Very aware that this Cycle has seen accelerated adoption because of ETF's etc,,,,,,so, please Keep an open mind.
Using the day Count system and the Nov 2021 day count, we could expect this Cycle ATH around Oct 2025 - probably safer to say Q4
But how High ?
The % rise from ATH to ATH is an interesting topic here.
2012 to 2017 ATH saw a 1144.6% Rise in PA
2017 to 2021 ATH ( Nov ) saw a 326,3% rise in PA - This is 3.5 X SMALLER than the previous Rise.
Using that 3.5 Smaller calculation, that gives us an % rise of 92.4% and an ATH of around 121K for this cycle. Kind of contradicts expectations and this alone could point towards that fact we may have already be near reacheing cycle Top !
(I have posted a Far more detailed chart about this and will be updating it soon)
BUT, the Crunch comes when we look at the Halving to ATH, as mentioned in the title
I wrote in Dec 2022
2012 Halving 10K% rise after
2016 Halving 3,5K% rise after
2020 Halving 700 % rise after
Projected PA in 2024 /5 would also be 700%
BUT, Bitcoin is far more public now and the Halving Pumps will be talked about aLot. Could the Next halving actually be pumped a Lot earlier than previous dates
We got earlier Pumps due to ETF expectations, as can be seen by how far of the Curve PA rose in 2024 - This has completely changed how strong PA was at Halving and how Much further it could rise.
In facr, if you look back over previous Halvings, PA has been FLAT by comparison.
And so, Since the Bitcoin Halving in March 2024, to the current ATH, we have only seen a 62.8% Rise
If PA Had been on the Curve in the chart at the halving date, we would have seen a 397.8% eise to the current ATH
This Highlights a Massive change in how PA is rising But, at the same time, We would still most likely be in the Range we are now in.
And Lastly, I want to show you this
I mentioned in Dec 2022 how Bitcoin PA could expect a 700% Rise in Price from Halving to cycle ATH
I was WRONG
From Where PA was at Halving to the Expected ATH mark on Rising trend line, it will be 651% rise and around 500K
So, in conclusion, despite a massive change in how PA approached Halving and how Shallow the rise in PA has been compared to previous cycles after Halving, we are Still in a VERY Good place.
However, if you Look at just the ATH to ATH dats calculation, we may already he near TOP....
Take you pick - For Me, I am holding out for Q4 but I have safe guards in place should it turn out we have peaked early.
But do remember, this is a Projection..No guarantees......But we can hope
Stay safe and Love your Neighbour
Bitcoin Cash ($BCH) Surged 35% Today Gearing Up for 70% SpikeThe peer-to-peer electronic cash system that aims to become sound global money with fast payments, micro fees, privacy and larger block size Surged 35% Today amidst crypto market volatility potentially gearing up for a 70% spike to the $500 resistance.
Bitcoin cash ( SET:BCH ) was created as an alternative to the first and most valuable cryptocurrency — Bitcoin (BTC) in 2017. Bitcoin cash ( SET:BCH ) chart pattern exhibited series of consolidation pattern that connotes to an upcoming surge and the 35% surge is a prelude to what's coming.
With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 65, SET:BCH is more than ready to capitalize on the current bullish engulfing pattern exhibited on the chart.
As of the time of writing, SET:BCH is up 21.78% with data from DefiLlama showing about $7.28M locked in Bitcoin cash network With about $1.92 Billion in volume for the past 5 days.
Bitcoin Cash Price Live Data
The live Bitcoin Cash price today is $388.10 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $1,009,964,576 USD. We update our BCH to USD price in real-time. Bitcoin Cash is up 25.15% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #20, with a live market cap of $7,699,166,324 USD. It has a circulating supply of 19,838,141 BCH coins and a max. supply of 21,000,000 BCH coins.
Bitcoin may rebound up from buyer zone check out and read BTC/USD Bullish Outlook: Potential Rebound from Buyer Zone"
Bitcoin is showing signs of strength as it approaches a key buyer zone. Holding above this level could trigger a strong rebound, with upside targets at key resistance levels. A breakout above confirms bullish momentum, supporting further gains.